procena ranjivosti na suŠu bazirana na ......zadatak wp:4, activity:4.2.2 drought vulnerability...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: PROCENA RANJIVOSTI NA SUŠU BAZIRANA NA ......ZADATAK WP:4, Activity:4.2.2 DROUGHT VULNERABILITY ESTIMATES BASED ON SIMULATIONS USING CROP-YIELD MODELS - Izračunati pad prinosa kukuruza](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060412/5f110dce94075d635445ad53/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
PROCENA RANJIVOSTI NA SUPROCENA RANJIVOSTI NA SUŠŠU U BAZIRANA NA KORIBAZIRANA NA KORIŠŠĆĆENJU MODELA ZA ENJU MODELA ZA
SIMULACIJU PRINOSA USEVASIMULACIJU PRINOSA USEVA, , KAO I PROCENA NA OSNOVU KAO I PROCENA NA OSNOVU
KLIMATSKIH I GEOMORFOLOKLIMATSKIH I GEOMORFOLOŠŠKIH KIH PODATAKAPODATAKA
mr Atila Bezdan, Poljoprivredni fakultet, Novi Sad
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ZADATAKZADATAKWP:4, Activity:4.2.2DROUGHT VULNERABILITY ESTIMATES BASED ON SIMULATIONS USING CROP-YIELD MODELS
- Izračunati pad prinosa kukuruza u uslovima bez navodnjavanja uvišegodišnjem periodu (1971 – 2010)
- Odrediti broj godina u kojima proizvodnja kukuruza nije profitabilna
- Izračunati SPI2 za avgust mesec u analiziranom periodu
- Regesijom SPI2 za avgust i pada prinosa odrediti graničnu vrednost prikojoj može nastati ekonomski rizik
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KARAKTERISTIKE IZABRANIH LOKACIJAKARAKTERISTIKE IZABRANIH LOKACIJA
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KARAKTERISTIKE IZABRANIH LOKACIJAKARAKTERISTIKE IZABRANIH LOKACIJA
-- KIKINDA KIKINDA --
Klimatske karakteristike: kontinentalna klima, Tsr, god= 11.19oC , Psr, god = 560mm
Karakteristike zemljišta: Černozem beskarbonatni
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KARAKTERISTIKE IZABRANIH LOKACIJAKARAKTERISTIKE IZABRANIH LOKACIJA
-- NOVI SAD NOVI SAD --
Klimatske karakteristike: kontinentalna klima, Tsr, god= 11.28oC , Psr, god = 634mm
Karakteristike zemljišta: Černozem karbonatni na lesnoj terasi
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KARAKTERISTIKE IZABRANIH LOKACIJAKARAKTERISTIKE IZABRANIH LOKACIJA
-- NINIŠŠ --
Klimatske karakteristike: umereno kontinentalna klima, Tsr, god= 11.73oC , Psr, god = 597 mm
Karakteristike zemljišta: Smonica
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KARAKTERISTIKE KARAKTERISTIKE USEVAUSEVA
-- KUKURUZ KUKURUZ --
- Hibrid kukuruza NS – 640
- FAO grupa zrenja 600
- Fenofaze rasta i razvića:
setva (20. apr)
nicanje (1. maj)
vegetativni porast (1. maj – 15 jul)
cvetanje i oplodnja (15. jul – 5. avg)
nalivanje zrna – sazrevanje (5. avg – 30. sep)
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PAD PRINOSA KUKURUZA U USLOVIMA BEZ PAD PRINOSA KUKURUZA U USLOVIMA BEZ NAVODNJAVANJANAVODNJAVANJA
Ky = 1,25Ky = 1,25
Granična vrednost prinosa suvog zrna kukuruza ispod koje proizvodnja nije profitabilna
Potencijalni prinos hibrida kukuruza NS-640
Granica profitabilnosti
4,7 t/ha4,7 t/ha
15 t/ha15 t/ha
pad prinosa odpad prinosa od68%68%
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PAD PRINOSA KUKURUZA U USLOVIMA BEZ PAD PRINOSA KUKURUZA U USLOVIMA BEZ NAVODNJAVANJANAVODNJAVANJA
-- KIKINDA KIKINDA --
broj godina u kojima proizvodnja kukuruza nije profitabilna = 1435% (14/40)
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PAD PRINOSA KUKURUZA U USLOVIMA BEZ PAD PRINOSA KUKURUZA U USLOVIMA BEZ NAVODNJAVANJANAVODNJAVANJA
-- NOVI SAD NOVI SAD --
broj godina u kojima proizvodnja kukuruza nije profitabilna = 922,5% (9/40)
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PAD PRINOSA KUKURUZA U USLOVIMA BEZ PAD PRINOSA KUKURUZA U USLOVIMA BEZ NAVODNJAVANJANAVODNJAVANJA
-- NINIŠŠ--
broj godina u kojima proizvodnja kukuruza nije profitabilna = 1025% (10/40)
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SPI2 ZA AVGUST MESECSPI2 ZA AVGUST MESEC
-- KIKINDAKIKINDA--
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SPI2 ZA AVGUST MESECSPI2 ZA AVGUST MESEC
-- NOVI SADNOVI SAD--
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SPI2 ZA AVGUST MESECSPI2 ZA AVGUST MESEC
-- NINIŠŠ--
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REGRESIJA SPI2 ZA AVGUST MESEC I PADA REGRESIJA SPI2 ZA AVGUST MESEC I PADA PRINOSA KUKURUZAPRINOSA KUKURUZA
-- KIKINDAKIKINDA--
Granična vrednost profitabilne proizvodnje, SPI2avgust = - 0.6
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REGRESIJA SPI2 ZA AVGUST MESEC I PADA REGRESIJA SPI2 ZA AVGUST MESEC I PADA PRINOSA KUKURUZAPRINOSA KUKURUZA
-- NOVI SADNOVI SAD--
Granična vrednost profitabilne proizvodnje, SPI2avgust = - 0.9
y = -16.676x + 52.908R2 = 0.5903
y = -2.3313x2 - 16.278x + 55.038R2 = 0.6055
0
20
40
60
80
100
-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
SPI2 August
YD ra
infe
d m
aize
, % 68
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REGRESIJA SPI2 ZA AVGUST MESEC I PADA REGRESIJA SPI2 ZA AVGUST MESEC I PADA PRINOSA KUKURUZAPRINOSA KUKURUZA
-- NINIŠŠ--
Granična vrednost profitabilne proizvodnje, SPI2avgust = - 1.4
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ZADATAKZADATAKWP:4, Activity:4.2.1DROUGHT VULNERABILITY ESTIMATES BASED ON CLIMATOLOGICAL AND GEOMORPHOLOGICAL
Proceniti ranjivost na sušu na osnovu:- PADAVINA (Srednja godišnja suma padavina i standarne devijacije)
- TRAJANJA OSUNČANOSTI
- NAGIBA TERENA
- ZEMLJIŠNOG POKRIVAČA I NAČINA KORIŠĆENJA ZEMLJIŠTA
- PEDOLOŠKOG TIPA ZEMLJIŠTA
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SREDNJA GODISREDNJA GODIŠŠNJA SUMA PADAVINANJA SUMA PADAVINA
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STANDARDNA DEVIJACIJA PADAVINASTANDARDNA DEVIJACIJA PADAVINA
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TRAJANJE OSUNTRAJANJE OSUNČČANOSTIANOSTI
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NAGIB TERENANAGIB TERENA
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ZEMLJIZEMLJIŠŠNI POKRIVANI POKRIVAČČ I NAI NAČČIN KORIIN KORIŠŠĆĆENJA ZEMLJIENJA ZEMLJIŠŠTATA
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PEDOLOPEDOLOŠŠKI TIP ZEMLJIKI TIP ZEMLJIŠŠTATA
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KARTA RANJIVOSTI NA SUKARTA RANJIVOSTI NA SUŠŠUU
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HVALA NA HVALA NA PAPAŽŽNJI !NJI !