probability of tsunami inundation in taiwan · tsunami inundation probability can be used to...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan
Guan-Yu Chen*, Chin-Chu Liu, Department of Oceanography, National Sun
Yat-sen University, Taiwan Jing-Hua, Lin
International Wave Dynamics Research Center (IWDRC), Tainan Hydraulics
Laboratory, Tainan, Taiwan
![Page 2: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Previous studies (Geist et al. 2009, in The Sea, Volume 15: Tsunamis)
! Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) provides estimates of the likelihood that tsunami flooding at a particular location will exceed a given level within a certain period of time.
! An extension of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA)
! magnitude of earthquake" height of tsunami
![Page 3: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
The threshold tsunami height varies from place to place. If the city is protected by a seawall, 3 m or higher tsunami may do no harm to the resident.
Problem of PTHA (I): Tsunami size/height is not the only factor for hazard assessment
![Page 4: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
! The area damaged by earthquake is smaller and the size/magnitude is homogeneous ! The size/magnitude is the most important
parameter
! The distribution of tsunami size/magnitude varies significantly due to local bathymetry/ topography ! the size/height is not a good parameter for a
vulnerable city
Tsunami size/height is not the only factor for hazard assessment
![Page 5: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Both PTHA and PSHA have hazard distribution functions against the size of earthquake/tsunami
Similar to G-R relation of earthquake
Problem of PTHA (II): the specific pdf for tsunami height has not been validated Many historical records are required for empirical analysis of tsunami runup height
![Page 6: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
! Previous studies used coarser simulation and calculate the probability at a specific location based on a single tsunami height
! As a by-product of inundation map generation, the present study uses very fine grid simulation
! Detailed bathymetry and topography are included
3rd reason to modify PTHA
![Page 7: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
! Previous studies provide probability for a given exposure time, not for a specific incidence
! In the present study, tsunami hazards are assessed as a whole city/town because of the finer grid
! The results can be used in the Probabilistic Forecast of tsunami hazard that can to reduce the chance of false alarm
4th reason to modify PTHA
![Page 8: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Nowadays, Probabilistic Forecast is more and more popular
![Page 9: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Probabilistic Forecast of Tsunami Inundation (PFTI) ! PFTI is the conditional inundation
probability once an earthquake is detected at some specific location with a specific magnitude
! PFTI can be directly applied to a specific tsunami incidence.
![Page 10: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Probabilistic Forecast of Tsunami Inundation (PFTI): conditional inundation probability in the existence of an earthquake of magnitude at the i-th sub-fault
ijnPFTIN
≡
1j jM M M +≤ ≤
Inundation Probability with Seawalls
![Page 11: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Seawall Height
![Page 12: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
# Black: Shoreline # Red: 50 m from Shoreline # Aqua: Inundated area # Yellow: Limit of
Inundation>50 cm
# Of the 8 grid points of the coastline, the inundation limit of three points is more than 50m inland
# Inundation Probability # =3/8=0.375。
Sea
Land
Inundated area
1
2
3
! Inundation Probability without Seawalls
![Page 13: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
![Page 14: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
(6.75-7.25) (7.25-7.75) (7.75-8.25)0 0 9.26%
0 0 9.38%
Linyuan Township 0 0 51.92%
Sinyuan Township 0 0 40.00%
Donggang Township 0 0 11.43%
Linbian Township 0 0 84.62%
Jiadong Township 0 5.00% 100.00%
Fangliao Township 0 0 69.05%
CijinSiaogang
Moment magnitude scale(Mw)
N1
Position
For a specific sub-fault, the Probabilistic Forecast of Tsunami Inundation (PFTI) can be obtained by simulating a few scenarios
![Page 15: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Trenches around the Pacific Ocean is divided into 141 zones— too many scenarios to simulate
1-13
42-48
23-30 31-41
49-58
14-22
59-70 71-80
81-107
108-139
140-141
![Page 16: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Tsunami Source Parameters used in computing PFTI (Tonga trench and Kermadec trench)
zone name longitude latitude depth(m) strike dip slip
1
湯加海溝&
克瑪迪克海溝
-174.54 -15.32 15000 -84 43.88649 90
2 -176.51 -17.24 15000 -74.2543 38.72711 90
3 -176.64 -18.92 15000 -51.0241 37.08086 90
4 -177.26 -20.88 15000 -77.9875 28.44976 90
5 -177.64 -23.04 15000 77.62623 28.81268 90
6 -177.72 -24.8 15000 54.95969 32.08721 90
7 -177 -27 15000 42.22768 35.43684 90
8 -177.43 -29.14 15000 36.77013 28.5233 90
9 -178.14 -30.84 15000 34.02716 31.6 90
10 -178.67 -32.93 15000 36.27189 27.72589 90
11 -179.15 -34.78 15000 33.4214 29.09804 90
12 -179.55 -36.87 15000 22.1959 35.27778 90
![Page 17: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Max tsunami wave height at Hua-Lien city
zone name longitude la.tude Mw7.0 Mw7.5 Mw8.0 Mw8.5 Mw9.0
1
湯加海溝&
克瑪迪克海溝
-174.54 -15.32 0.0018 0.0072 0.0206 0.0636 0.2374 2 -176.51 -17.24 0.0012 0.0059 0.0229 0.0644 0.1874 3 -176.64 -18.92 0.0018 0.0059 0.0169 0.0481 0.1411 4 -177.26 -20.88 0.0013 0.0047 0.0207 0.0380 0.1063 5 -177.64 -23.04 0.0012 0.0043 0.0170 0.0439 0.1472 6 -177.72 -24.8 0.0013 0.0053 0.0172 0.0407 0.1256 7 -177 -27 0.0018 0.0059 0.0187 0.0603 0.1918 8 -177.43 -29.14 0.0012 0.0032 0.0126 0.0616 0.2581 9 -178.14 -30.84 0.0019 0.0060 0.0204 0.0651 0.2414 10 -178.67 -32.93 0.0015 0.0064 0.0162 0.0554 0.1893 11 -179.15 -34.78 0.0014 0.0040 0.0107 0.0259 0.0794 12 -179.55 -36.87 0.0011 0.0024 0.0049 0.0150 0.0405
![Page 18: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Take Taidong City (台東市) for example, the tsunami from Mariana Trench, Phillipine Islands and Ryukyu Island Arc is highest
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1 4 7 10
13
16
19
22
25
28
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
55
58
61
64
67
70
73
76
79
82
85
88
91
94
97
100
103
106
109
112
115
118
121
124
127
130
133
136
139
Mariana 馬尼亞納
菲律賓 Phillipine
琉球Ryukyu
![Page 19: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
The highest tsunami wave height in Hua-Lien and Taidong generated by earthquakes of Mw=9 at each source zone
![Page 20: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
The highest tsunami wave height and tsunami arrival time in Daren and Changbin generated by earthquakes of Mw=9 at each source zone
![Page 21: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
The highest tsunami wave height and tsunami arrival time in Chengong generated by earthquakes of Mw=8.5 an Mw=9 at each source zone
![Page 22: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
For each vulnerable city, the inundation map is obtained by simulating a bell-shaped wave incident normally to the shore
bell-shaped wave of 2 m height
Hua-Lien
Taidong
![Page 23: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
! Anping
Incident Wave Form
0.5m 1m 2m
![Page 24: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
! Anping 3m 4m
6m 10m
![Page 25: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Anping
Wave Height 0.5m
Wave Height 1m
Wave Height 2m
Wave Height 3m
![Page 26: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Wave Height 4m Wave Height
6m
Wave Height 10m
Red: Coastal point where inundation depth>50 cm at 50 m from Shoreline
![Page 27: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Location Anping Wave Height (m)
# of Coastal Grid Points
# of Inundation Grid Points
Inundation Probability
0.5
1725
447 25.91%
1 1104 64.00%
2 1477 85.62%
3 1574 91.25%
4 1644 95.30%
6 1714 99.36%
10 1721 99.77%
Inundation Probability for various incident wave height
![Page 28: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
北門
![Page 29: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
七股
![Page 30: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
將軍、七股
![Page 31: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
將軍、北門
![Page 32: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
彌陀、梓官
![Page 33: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
彌陀、永安、茄萣
![Page 34: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
安南、安平、南區
![Page 35: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
安南
![Page 36: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
旗津、小港
![Page 37: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
左楠、旗鼓
![Page 38: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
PFTI of Hua-Lien City for Tsunami Generated in Mariana Trench
zone name longitude la.tude Mw7.0 Mw7.5 Mw8.0 Mw8.5 Mw9.0
19 馬里亞納海溝
146.28 17.08 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.91% 20 146.35 14.93 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.15% 21 144.07 12.86 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.15% 1.73% 22 142.27 11.35 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.22% 36.47% 23 139.85 8.92 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 8.62% 24 139.53 7.2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 7.22%
![Page 39: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
PFTI for incident tsunami of various wave heights in northern Taiwan
![Page 40: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
PFTI for incident tsunami of various wave heights in eastern Taiwan
![Page 41: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
The PFTI is the conditional probability once a tsunami occurs
! To analyze the tsunami hazard in a certain exposure time, we need the chance of tsunamigenic earthquake
! In SCSTW3, earthquake probability is used
![Page 42: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Previous Study: Use Poisson process to find earthquake probability ! Poisson process is usually used to explain the distribution of
earthquakes (Anagnos and Kiureghian, 1988)
1/j jTλ = Mean annual rate of excedance.
In this way, earthquake probability always <1 even if there are more than one incidence
1( ), 1 j j dTe jP e λ λ+ −= −
The probability for j-th magnitude range 1j jM M M +≤ ≤
![Page 43: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
,ie jP
Moment scale magnitude (j)
Probability (in 30 years)
i=1(lat. 21~22.5) i=2(lat. 19.5~21)
i=3(lat.18.2~19.5)
(5.75-6.25) 99.96% 99.98% 99.98%
(6.25-6.75) 93.37% 89.59% 93.24%
(6.75-7.25) 61.47% 45.61% 56.52%
(7.25-7.75) 28.48% 15.12% 22.71%
(7.75-8.25) 11.12% 4.32% 7.66%
![Page 44: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Expected earthquake number is used instead of earthquake probability
! Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect an area from tsunami hazard
! If there are two incidences expected, the benefit of the structure/insurance premium is twice as much as of the same structure that protects people from one incidence
i i ij j jETIP TEN PFTI=
![Page 45: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
The PFTI is the conditional probability once a tsunami occurs
! Earthquake-induced Tsunami Inundation Probability (ETIP) for subfault i and magnitude
is the number of tsunamigenic earthquake times PFTI
i i ij j jETIP TEN PFTI=
1j jM M M +≤ ≤
![Page 46: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
! Nj is the number of earthquakes that occur in some period of time T with magnitude ! a and b are regression constants.
jM≥
log( )j jN a bM= −
Tsunamigenic Earthquake Number (TEN): G-R relation (Gutenberg and Richter,1944)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8
Mw(Moment magnitude scale)
log(
N)
log(N) = - 0.9082Mw + 6.3393 in lat. 21-22.5
log(N) = -1.1398Mw + 7.6559 in lat. 19.5-21
log(N)= - 1.0195Mw + 7.0043 in lat. 18.2-19.5
![Page 47: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
! NEIC includes earthquake data in mb, Mw , Ms and ML
Magnitude in Incidence
number
mb 15527 Mw 1242 ML 371 UK 337 Ms 247
Total 17724
![Page 48: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Regression formula from Ms to Mw (Scordilis 2006)
![Page 49: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
! Nj is obtained based on the regression of 35 years NEIC data base ! Nj is used to obtain the expected number in 50 and 100 years Assume the seismic movement is uniform in time
log( )j jN a bM= −
(Poisson process)
jM
hT: Expected number of earthquake ≧
in a time extension
G-R relation
,
j
h h j
NTT N
=
,h jN
![Page 50: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
G-R relations for a source zone
Mw 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9
50 yr 4.0552 1.1116 0.3047 0.0835 0.0228 0.0062
100 yr 8.1099 2.2231 0.6094 0.1670 0.0457 0.0125
![Page 51: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
,
j
h h j
NTT N
=
1, 1 1( / ) ( / )10 ja b Mh j h j hN T T N T T +−
+ += =
( )1, 10 10j ja b M a b Me j
h
TNT
+− −= −
, ( / ) ( / )10 ja b Mh j h j hN T T N T T −= =
jM
hT: Expected number of earthquake ≧
in a time extension ,h jN
hT: Expected number of earthquake
in a time extension ,e jN 1j jM M M +≤ ≤
Expected Earthquake Number ,e jN
![Page 52: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
Expected Earthquake Number in the next 100 years
zone name longitude latitude Mw7.0 Mw7.5 Mw8.0 Mw8.5 Mw9.0
1
湯加海溝&
克瑪迪克海溝
-174.54 -15.32 1.5718 0.4566 0.1326 0.0385 0.0112 2 -176.51 -17.24 0.4767 0.1233 0.0319 0.0082 0.0021 3 -176.64 -18.92 0.1642 0.0415 0.0105 0.0027 0.0007 4 -177.26 -20.88 0.4073 0.1115 0.0306 0.0084 0.0023 5 -177.64 -23.04 0.2261 0.0609 0.0164 0.0044 0.0012 6 -177.72 -24.8 0.1990 0.0605 0.0184 0.0056 0.0017 7 -177 -27 0.1360 0.0349 0.0089 0.0023 0.0006 8 -177.43 -29.14 1.7651 0.6374 0.2301 0.0831 0.0300 9 -178.14 -30.84 0.7932 0.2232 0.0628 0.0177 0.0050 10 -178.67 -32.93 0.3216 0.0781 0.0190 0.0046 0.0011 11 -179.15 -34.78 0.0402 0.0098 0.0024 0.0006 0.0001 12 -179.55 -36.87 0.0281 0.0082 0.0024 0.0007 0.0002
![Page 53: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Tsunamigenic Earthquake Number (TEN)
( )1, 10 10j ja b M a b Me j
h
TNT
+− −= −
Expected Earthquake Number ,e jN
ocshP conditional probability for earthquakes to be both oceanic origin and shallow, following Liu et al. (2007).
,j e j ocshTEN N P=
![Page 54: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
! The statistics of submarine earthquakes is based on NEIC
! The depth is also available
![Page 55: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
NEIC Database ! Year:1976-2008 ! Study area:118
。~123
。E、18
。~23
。N。
! Total earthquake events: 2124. ! Both oceanic origin and shallow:(<15km) :392
ocshP
392 16.76%2124ocshP = =
![Page 56: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
19
馬里亞納海溝
146.28 17.08 622 85 13.66%
20 146.35 14.93 1033 176 17.05%
21 144.07 12.86 2107 359 17.06%
22 142.27 11.35 745 186 25.00%
23 139.85 8.92 98 20 20.41%
24 139.53 7.2 59 14 23.33%
ocshP
35 133.4038 33.13188 1433 371 25.86%
36 131.46 31.02878 1235 89 7.20%
37 130.3494 28.92551 1851 172 9.30%
38 128.5244 27.13333 1458 180 12.36%
39 126.6147 25.13265 2675 682 25.51%
![Page 57: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
,i i i i ij j j e j ocsh jETIP TEN PFTI N P PFTI= =
! Earthquake-induced Tsunami Inundation Probability (ETIP) for subfault i and magnitude
is the number of tsunamigenic earthquake times PFTI
1j jM M M +≤ ≤
![Page 58: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
ETIP for a tsunami prone coast
summed over all indices i and j to give a desired probability for all possible sources
,
ij
i j
i i i ij j e j ocsh j
i j i j
ETIP ETIP
TEN PFTI N P PFTI
=
= =
∑∑
∑∑ ∑∑
![Page 59: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
For the east coast of Taiwan, the trenches around the Pacific Ocean is divided into 141 zones
1-13
42-48
23-30 31-41
49-58
14-22
59-70 71-80
81-107
108-139
140-141
![Page 60: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
![Page 61: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
19
馬里亞納海溝
146.28 17.08 622 85 13.66%
20 146.35 14.93 1033 176 17.05%
21 144.07 12.86 2107 359 17.06%
22 142.27 11.35 745 186 25.00%
23 139.85 8.92 98 20 20.41%
24 139.53 7.2 59 14 23.33%
ocshP
35 133.4038 33.13188 1433 371 25.86%
36 131.46 31.02878 1235 89 7.20%
37 130.3494 28.92551 1851 172 9.30%
38 128.5244 27.13333 1458 180 12.36%
39 126.6147 25.13265 2675 682 25.51%
![Page 62: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
Expected Earthquake Number in the next 100 years
zone name longitude latitude Mw7.0 Mw7.5 Mw8.0 Mw8.5 Mw9.0
1
湯加海溝&
克瑪迪克海溝
-174.54 -15.32 1.5718 0.4566 0.1326 0.0385 0.0112 2 -176.51 -17.24 0.4767 0.1233 0.0319 0.0082 0.0021 3 -176.64 -18.92 0.1642 0.0415 0.0105 0.0027 0.0007 4 -177.26 -20.88 0.4073 0.1115 0.0306 0.0084 0.0023 5 -177.64 -23.04 0.2261 0.0609 0.0164 0.0044 0.0012 6 -177.72 -24.8 0.1990 0.0605 0.0184 0.0056 0.0017 7 -177 -27 0.1360 0.0349 0.0089 0.0023 0.0006 8 -177.43 -29.14 1.7651 0.6374 0.2301 0.0831 0.0300 9 -178.14 -30.84 0.7932 0.2232 0.0628 0.0177 0.0050 10 -178.67 -32.93 0.3216 0.0781 0.0190 0.0046 0.0011 11 -179.15 -34.78 0.0402 0.0098 0.0024 0.0006 0.0001 12 -179.55 -36.87 0.0281 0.0082 0.0024 0.0007 0.0002
![Page 63: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
PFTI of Hua-Lien City for Tsunami Generated in Mariana Trench
zone name longitude la.tude Mw7.0 Mw7.5 Mw8.0 Mw8.5 Mw9.0
19 馬里亞納海溝
146.28 17.08 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.91% 20 146.35 14.93 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.15% 21 144.07 12.86 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.15% 1.73% 22 142.27 11.35 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.22% 36.47% 23 139.85 8.92 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 8.62% 24 139.53 7.2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 7.22%
![Page 64: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
ETIP in the next 100 years
City/Town 秀林鄉 新城鄉 Hua-Lien 壽豐鄉 豐濱鄉 長濱鄉
50 yr 0.10% 0.00% 0.16% 0.04% 0.45% 0.32%
100 yr 0.20% 0.00% 0.31% 0.08% 0.89% 0.64%
City/Town 成功鎮 東河鄉 Taidong 太麻里鄉 大武鄉 達仁鄉
50 yr 2.12% 6.21% 4.07% 0.27% 1.91% 2.47%
100 yr 4.25% 12.41% 8.14% 0.55% 3.81% 4.94%
![Page 65: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
PFTI for incident tsunami of various wave heights in eastern Taiwan
![Page 66: Probability of Tsunami Inundation in Taiwan · Tsunami inundation probability can be used to calculate the benefit/cost ratio of a structure or tsunami insurance designed to protect](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040717/5e2248d8d60f7a593d37cf12/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
Thank you for your attention
Questions/Comments ?