probabilistic safety assessment psa '99 risk …

Proceedingsof the

International Topical Meetingon

PROBABILISTIC SAFETY ASSESSMENT

PSA '99

RISK-INFORMED, AND PERFORMANCE-BASEDREGULATION IN THE NEW MILLENNIUM

VOLUME 2

August 22-26, 1999Washington, DC

Sponsored by• ANS Washington, D.C. Section• ANS Nuclear Installations Safety Division

Cosponsored by• U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission• National Aeronautics and Space Administration• Korean Nuclear Regulatory Commission• Japan Atomic Energy Commission

In cooperation with• International Atomic Energy Agency

Published by theAmerican Nuclear Society, Inc.

La Grange Park, Illinois 60526 USA

UB/TIB Hannover120 909 960

89 ooI -

RISK-INFORMED DECISIONMAKING-PAPER/PANEL

Tuesday, August 24, 19993:15-5:00 p.m.

Chair: Vicki Bier (Univ of Wisconsin)

Paper:Chemical Safety Assessment: Use in Food Additives, Su-perfund, and Other Decisions / James D. Wilson (Resourcesfor the Future) 705

Panel 713

Volume 2

PRECURSOR ANALYSIS METHODSAND RESOLUTIONS


Chair: P. Baranowsky (NRC)

Sophistication of SGTR Event Tree for Accident SequencePrecursor Analysis / Norio Watanabe, Masashi Hirano(JAERI-Japan), Hideo Takahashi (Business Tec-Japan) .. 717

Comparison of Some Precursor-Based Core-Melt FrequencyEstimators / J. Collet, P. Francois (EdF Clamart-France),B. Jourdain, B. Lapeyre (Ecole Nationale des Fonts etChaussees-France) 725

Results of the Precursor Analysis for German NuclearPower Plants / Helmut Hoertner, Siegfried Babst (GRS-Germany) 731

French Precursor Studies: Methods and Insights / V.Fauchille (IPSN/DES/SEREP-France), J. M. Lanore(IPSN/DES/DIR-France), F. Pichereau (IPSN/DES/SERS-France), J. Tirira (IPSN/DES/SEREP-France) 738

DSA/PSA INTERFACES ANDUNCERTAINTY CONSIDERATIONS


Chair: F. Eltawila (NRC)

Enhanced Generalized Performance Assessment of Near-Optimized Pressurized Water Reactor Core Configurationsby Multi-Valued Possibilistic Processing / AnastasiosMironidis (NYPA), Leon Lidofsky (Columbia Univ), Left-eris Tsoukalas (Purdue Univ) 747

Effects of SCDAP/RELAP5 Hot Leg Modeling on Predic-tion of the Risk of Steam Generator Tube Rupture / D. L.Knudson, C. A. Dobbe (INEEL) 755

PSA APPLICATION INREGULATORY AGENCIES


Chairs: L. Perry man (Eskom-South Africa)V Mubayi (BNL)

Improving Risk Insight Utilization and Communication inthe Inspection, Assessment, and Enforcement Programs ofthe Nuclear Regulatory Commission / Douglas H. Coe(NRC, Rockville) 765

The Technical Basis for Off-Site Emergency Planning / L. J.Perryman, M. T. Magugumela (Eskom-South Africa) 773

Risk Analysis Based on Acceleration Measurements / FlorinPopentiu Vladicescu (City Univ London-United Kingdom),Radu Mihaela (Aerofina Enterprise-Romania), Erez Fried-man (EDS-lsrael) 781

MAINTENANCE RULE-PAPER/PANEL


Chair: K. Bych (PG&E)

Paper:PSA Support of Implementation of the Maintenance Rule atComEd / Mark A. Melnicoff (ComEd, Downers Grove) ... 793

Panel 801

IF I COULD HAVE THREE WISHES-PSA DOCUMENTATION:

A USER'S PERSPECTIVE-PANEL

Wednesday, August 25, 19998:00-9:45 a.m.

Chair: N. Siu (NRC)

Panel 805

INDUSTRIAL APPLICATIONS OF PSA


Chair: M. Stutzke (SA1C)

Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Slaughterhouse Prac-tices: Modelling Contamination Process Control in Beef Des-

XI

tined for Hamburger / Tanya Roberts (USDA), Scott A.Malcolm (Johns Hopkins Univ), Clare A. Narrod (USDA/FS1S/0PHS/ERAD) 809

The Creation of Regional Safety Management System Struc-ture: Bashkortostan Republic Experience I Rustem Z. Kham-itov (Bashkortostan Republic Ministry-Russia), Victor G.Krymsky, Farit M. Akhmedjanov, Andrey R. Yunusov (UfaState Aviation Tech Univ-Russia) 816

Use of an Interactive Matrix Approach for Safety Analysisof the Initial Operations Phase of the National Ignition Fa-cility / S. Brereton, C. Ma (LLNL) 823

Effective Risk Based Methods for Management of Safety,Health and Environment in Small and Medium Sized En-terprises / Lars Bodsberg (SINTEF Industrial Management-Norway) 831

HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS THEORY-)

Wednesday, August 25,19998:00-9:45 a.m.

Chairs: /. Kouzmina (SECNRS-Russia)P. Prassinos (LLNL)

What Does A MERMOS Analysis Consist in? / CorinneBieder, Pierre Le Bot (EdF Clamart-France), FrancescoCara (C. B. & J.-France) 839

What are the CICAs? Retrospective Analysis of the Three-Mile Island Accident from the MERMOS Viewpoint /Francesco Cara (C. B. & J.-France), Pierre Le Bot, CorinneBieder (EdF Clamart-France) 846

MERMOS, A Second Generation HRA Method: What ItDoes and Doesn't Do / Pierre Le Bot (EdF Clamart-France),Francesco Cara (C. B. & J.-France), Corinne Bieder (EdFClamart-France) 852

Developments in the Decision Tree Methodology / An-thony Spurgin (Consultant), A. Bareith (VEIKI-Hungary),I. Kouzmina (SECNRS-Russia), G. Baumont (IPSN-France),V. Smoutnev (NVNPP-Russia) 861

A Comparison of the Application of the CAHR Method tothe Evaluation of PWR and BWR Events and Some Impli-cations for the Methodological Development of HRA / Ol-iver Str&ter (GRS-Germany/ Tech Univ Munich-Germany),Bernhard Reer (Scherrer Inst-Switzerland) 869

PERFORMANCE-BASED AND MAINTENANCEMONITORING METHODS

Wednesday, August 25,19998:00-9:45 a.m.

Chair: A. Azarm (BNL)

Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Support of On-Line Main-tenance at Virginia Power / Ross C. Anderson, Thomas P.

John, Song-Hua Shen, Kenneth D. Tuley, David M. Bucheit,Ronald S. Thomas (Virginia Power, Glen Allen) 879

The First Feasibility Study of Maintenance Rule Applica-tion In Korean NPP / KilYoo Kim, Taewoon Kim, YounghoJin (KAERI-Korea) 883

Developing a Performance-Based Regulatory System forDOE Facilities / J. Rempe, T. Leahy, D. Knudson, T. Wier-man (INEEL), G. Apostolakis, M. Golay, E. Chaniotakis, E.Borgonovo, F. Felder, T. Ghosh (MIT), A. Stevens (JasonAssoc) 887

On-Line Maintenance and Maintenance Rule Implementa-tion at Both Turkey Point and St. Lucie Nuclear Plants /Mahmoud Heiba (FP&L, Juno Beach), Jalal Zamanali (Lu-cent Technol) 894

RISK MANAGEMENT


Chairs: C. Heising (Iowa State Univ)J. O'Brien (NRC)

Risk Informed Maintenance in Support of Defense inDepth / G. R. Morton, D. S. Cramer (WSMS) 901

Use of PSA in Risk Management at a Research Reactor /David H. Johnson, Donald J. Wakefield (PLG), Ron Cam-eron (ANSTO-Australia) 904

YOU WANT WHAT?PSA DOCUMENTATION:

A PRODUCER'S PERSPECTIVE

Wednesday, August 25,199910:15 a.m.-Noon

Chair: N. Siu (NRC)

Facilitating Technical Risk Communication Among Non-Specialists / Dennis C. Bley (The Wreathwood Group), Shi-geo Kojima (CSD, Ltd.), John Wreathall (The WreathwoodGroup) 913

Making the Most of Your Investment in PSA: The Role of aDocumentation and Information Management / S. A. Ep-stein, D. H. Johnson, S. B. Rao, J. C. Lin, D. J. Wakefield(PLG) 921

PSA Documentation: Does Anybody Read What I Write? /Martin A. Stutzke (Data Systems & Solutions-Czech Re-public) 925

SAFETY ASSESSMENT OFNONNUCLEAR FACILITIES


Chair: B. Bari (BNL)

Experiences from the Safety Assessment of a Train LeaderTelephone System / Gustav Dahll, Harold Thunem (OECD-Norway) 933

Reliability of a Computer Based Transit Car Door System/Lori M. Kaufman, Ted C. Giras (Univ of Virginia), NabilGhaly (NYCTA) 941

HUMAN RELIABILITYANALYSIS THEORY-II

Wednesday, August 25, 199910:15 a.m.-Noon

Chairs: J. Holy (NRI-Czech Republic)D. Bley (Buttonwood Consult)

FACE—A Framework for Analysing Commission Errors /Pekka T. Pyy (VTTAutomation-Finland) 949

Human Reliability in Severe Accident Management /Pekka T. Pyy (VTTAutomation-Finland) 957

Evaluation of Human Performance Issues for Fire Risk /Susan E. Cooper (Data Systems & Solutions), Dennis C.Bley (Wreath Wood Group), John A. Forester (SNL), AlanM. Kolaczkowski (SAIC, Golden), Ann Ramey-Smith, Cath-erine M. Thompson (NRC), Donnie W. Whitehead (SNL),John Wreathall (Wreath Wood Group) 964

Using a Decision Tree to Estimate Human Error Probabil-ities in a Level 2 PSA: The HORAAM Method / FridiricMinage, Aurelie Vogel, Bernard Chaumont (CEA-France) 970

PSA INITIATIVES IN INTERNATIONALREGULATORY BODIES


Chair: George Apostolakis (MIT)

OECD Nuclear Energy Agency Activities in RiskAssessment—An International Perspective / Barry Kaufer(OECD-France), Joseph A. Murphy (NRC) 979

Regulatory Use of PS A in Germany / Heinz Peter Berg, Ru-dolfGortz, Helga Schott, Leopold Weil (BFS-Germany) .. 987

IAEA Activities on PSA / Ana Gomez Cobo, VesselinaRanguelova (IAEA-Austria) 994

Use of PRA in the AP600 Design Certification Review /Nicholas T. Saltos, Adel El-Bassioni (NRC) 1002

PSA APPLICATIONS IN OPERATING PLANTS

Wednesday, August 25, 199910:15 a.m.-Noon

Chair: L Pong (Washington Pub Pwr Supply)

Using PSA Applications in EDF Nuclear Power Plants /Hilhne Pesme, Philippe Frangois (EdF Clamart-France),Laurent Magne (EdF St. Denis-France) 1013

Commonwealth Edison Byron/Braidwood PSA Upgrade /Young H. In (ComEd, Downers Grove), Shawn S. Rodgers(ERINEng, Carlsbad) 1021

"Back of the Envelope" Risk Assessment Techniques /Earl M. Page (Detroit Edison) 1025

OUTSIDE THE BOX-PSA DOCUMENTATION:THE PROMISE OF TECHNOLOGY

Wednesday, August 25, 19991:30-2:45 p.m.

Chair: N. Siu (NRC)

The Idaho National Engineering and EnvironmentalRisk and Reliability Information Base / Curtis L Smith(INEEL) 1035

PSAINFOSYS, A PC Based Structured Knowledge Base /Hans Erikson (SKI-Sweden), Barry Kaufer (OECD/CSNI-France), Wolfgang Werner (SAC-Germany) 1042

Relational Databases for Probabilistic Risk Assessment Con-figuration Control / James K. Liming (PLG), Thomas G.Hook (SCE, San Clemente) 1050

KNOWLEDGE-BASED SYSTEMSAND COMPUTER TOOLS

Wednesday, August 25,19991:30-2:45 p.m.

Chairs: P. Hessel (AECB-Canada)M. Modarres (Univ of Maryland)

Benefits Expected from Automatic Studies with KB3 in PSAsat EDF / Marie Gallois, Mylene Pilliire (EdF Clamart-France) 1061

XI

Development of an Emergency Response Support Systemfor the Fugen NPS / Masutake Sotsu, Yukihiro Iguchi, Koui-chi Mizuno (JNC-Japan), Katsuyuki Kumasaka, Hiroaki Shi-mozaki (Hitachi Works-Japan), Tatsuro Kozaki (HitachiEng-Japan), James C. Raines, Brenda Deitke (Fauske &Assoc) 1068

The Application of GUI Based Computer Package toTIRM / Chao-Ming Peng (INER-Taiwan), Shian-HungHuang (Taipower-Taiwan) 1076

The Development of Tai-Power Integrated Risk Monitor(TIRM) / Yuhao Huang (INER-Taiwan), Hwai-Chiung Hsu,Ching-Chuan Yao (Taipower-Taiwan) 1080

Software for Living PSA on Levels 1 and 2/1. Niemela, R.Virolainen (STUK-Finland) 1087

PSA IN RADIOACTIVE WASTE PROCESSESAND OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES


Chair: D. Lewis (Shore-Pittman)

Probabilistic Safety Analysis for Storage Facility of WER-1000 Spent Fuel / Rustam T. lslamov, Vitaly N. Papushkin,Mike D. Ivanchikov (RAS-Russia) 1097

Frequency of Misloading Spent Nuclear Fuel into a WastePackage / Stanley H. Levinson (Framatome Technol), JohnR. Massari (Framatome Cogema) 1100

Probabilistic Safety Assessment of IFMIF Plant / LucianoBurgazzi, Fosco Bianchi (ENEA ERG-SIEC-ltaly) 1108

HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS-PERFORMANCE SHAPING FACTORS


Chairs: H. Blackman (INEEL)P. Kafka (GRS-Germany)

Proposal of Performance Influencing Factors for the As-sessment of Human Error Under Accident Management Sit-u a t i o n s / Jaewhan Kim, Wondea Jung (KAERI-Korea) ... 1 1 1 9

Dynamic Human Interaction Models for Risk Monitoring /Jeffrey A. Julius (SCIENTECH, Kent) 1125

Human Model Simulation to Deduce Human Cognitive Re-liability Curves for PSA/HRA Practice / Wei Wu (KyotoUniv-Japan), Takashi Nakagawa (Mitsubishi Electric-Japan), Hidekazu Yoshikiawa (Kyoto Univ-Japan) 1133

RISK-BASED RANKING METHODS


Chairs: M. Versteeg (KFD-The Netherlands)J. L. Roca (NBNR-Argentina)

Rapid Risk-Based Evaluation of Competing Conceptual De-signs / Terry F. Bott, J. Michael Burner (LANL) 1143

Study on Risk Ranking Method to Optimize Plant Designand Management / Y. Narumiya, K. Yonebayashi, K. Ush-ijima (Kansai Electric-Japan), T. Kuramoto, K. Toyoshima(Nucl Eng-Japan) 1151

Optimization of Surveillance Test Interval in Nuclear PowerPlants Based on Analytic Unavailability Model and GeneticAlgorithm / Joon-Eon Yang, Tae-Yong Sung, Youngho Jin(KAERI-Korea) 1155

Genetic Algorithm Application in Maintenance SchedulingOptimization: Cost and Risk Models / Mohammad Hadi Ha-davi, Mohammad Modarres (Univ of Maryland) 1163

OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGESPRESENTED BY THE NEW PRA

METHODOLOGY STANDARD-PANEL


Chair: Ali Mosleh (Univ of Maryland)Robert Budnitz (FRA)

Panel 1175

PSA SOFTWARE TOOLS


Chair: Steve Novak (INEEL)

Representing Dynamic System Behaviors Through AHierarchic Model / Y.-S. Hu, M. Modarres (Univ of Mary-land) 1179

RAMAS Risk Calc: A Microcomputer Environment for Prob-abilistic Arithmetic / Scott Ferson (Applied Biomathe-matics) 1188

New Faster and Complete Approach to Quantify PRA /Reni Banov, Zdenko Simii, Vladimir MikuliHid (FEEC-Croatia) 1195

ORGANIZATIONAL FACTORS


Chair: D. Johnson (PLG)

On the Inclusion of Organizational Factors in Incident In-vestigation / Rick Weil, George Apostolakis (MIT) 1203

Assessing Safety Perception in Risky Industries: A Supportto Management I Jean Schram (EdF Clamart-France), Ber-nard Fourest (EdF St. Denis-France) 1211

The Use of Stakeholder Archetypes in Modeling the Evo-lution of Perceived Risks / Luca J. Gratton, William E. Kas-tenberg (Univ of California, Berkeley) 1217

RISK-INFORMED APPLICATIONS:INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCES


Chairs: R. Grantom (HL&P)Y. H. Huang (INER-Taiwan)

Cofrentes NPP Risk-Informed Inservice Testing Project Re-sults / Joaquin Sudrez, Santiago de Gregorio (IberdrolaEng-Spain), William J. Parkinson (Data Systems & Solu-tions) 1227

Use of Living PSA in Regulatory Decision-Making / A. Ju-lin, I. Niemeld, R. Virolainen (STUK-Finland) 1233

Viewpoints of the Hungarian Nuclear Safety Authority onApplication of PSA in Regulatory Decision Making / GizaMacsuga (HAEA-Hungary), Elod Holld, Piter Sikldssy(VEIKI Inst-Hungary) 1239

Incorporation of PRA into the Regulatory Decision and Pol-icy Making in Slovakia / Jozef Kubdnyi, Alexander Duca(NRA-Slovak Republic) 1245

Probabilistic Safety Assessment for Integrated Design Pro-cess for KNGR Development / Jang Hwan Na, Hae CheolOh, Jae Sung Lee (KEPCO, Taejon-Korea), Beom Su Lee(KOPEC-Korea) 1251

DECISION MAKING INRISK-INFORMED APPLICATIONS


Chairs: T. Hook (SCE)T. King (NRC)

Outage Schedule Cost-Benefit-Risk Analysis: A PRA Tech-nology Application / James K. Liming (PLG), C. RichardGrantom (South Texas Project) 1261

The Relationship of Deterministic and Probabilistic Analy-ses in Establishing the Basis for Technical Specifications /Andrew A. Dykes, David H. Johnson (PLG) 1269

PSA QUALITY AND GUIDELINES

Thursday, August 26,19998:00-9:45 a.m.

Chair: M. Cunningham (NRC)

Creating Guidelines for a Contemporary Risk ManagementProgram / John E. Steinmetz, William E. Burchill (ComEd,Downers Grove), Karl N. Fleming (ERIN Eng, Carlsbad).. 1275

Managing Simultaneous PRA Upgrades / William E. Burchill(ComEd, Downers Grove), Doug True (ERIN Eng) 1280

Quality Assurance for Probabilistic Safety Assessments /Scott Ferson (Applied Biomathematics) 1284

RISK-MONITORING APPLICATIONS

Thursday, August, 26, 19998:00-9:45 a.m.

Chair: G. Krueger (PECO Energy)

Insights from Developing Shutdown Risk Monitor Mod-els / Jeffrey A. Julius (SCIENTECH, Kent), Diane M. Jones(SCIENTECH, West Des Moines) 1291

Evaluation of Refueling Outage Core Damage Frequencyfor a PWR Plant / Ching-Hui Wu (INER-Taiwan), Chih-Ming Ko (Taipower-Taiwan) 1300

Evaluation of Refueling Outage Core Damage Frequencyfor a BWR-4 Plant / Jyh-Der Lin (INER-Taiwan), Yi-JuiChang (Taipower-Taiwan) 1306

Safety Monitor Implementation for Dual Units, at SurryPower Station / Kenneth D. Tuley (Virginia Power, GlenAllen), Thomas A. Morgan (SCIENTECH, Gaithersburg),Jeffrey D. Leary (SCIENTECH, Bear) 1311

EXPERIENCES WITH PSAIN OPERATING PLANTS


Chair: C. Park (KAERI-Korea)

Managing the Living PRA During Transition / Kenneth H.Bych (PG&E, Avila) 1321

Risk Impact of Electric Grid Deregulation: A ScopingStudy / Nicholas T. Saltos, Daniel M. O'Neal, Adel El-Bassioni (NRC) 1326

HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSISAPPLICATIONS-I


Chair: G. Parry (NRC)

Retrospective Event Analysis Using CODA and Perspec-tives on Human Error Prediction / Bernhard Reer (ScherrerInst-Switzerland) 1337

Human Reliability Analysis in Novovoronezh NPP Unit 5PSA / Irina Kouzmina, Artour Lioubarski (NRA-Russia),Victor Smoutnev (Novovoronezh NPP-Russia), Anthony J.Spurgin (Consultant) 1346

Human Reliability Assessment in Loviisa NPP RefuelingOutage / Matti Kattainen (Fortum Eng-Finland), Jussi K.Vaurio (Fortum Power and Heat-Finland) 1354

New Emergency Procedures of Westinghouse Type fromPoint of View of Human Factors and Human Reliability /Jaroslav Holy (NRI-Czech Republic) 1362

RISK-INFORMED REGULATION: GLOBALCONSIDERATIONS-PANEL

Thursday, August 26,199910:15 a.m.-Noon

Chair: J. Murphy (NRC)

Panel 1371

SHUTDOWN PSA

Thursday, August 26,199910:15 a.m.-Noon

Chair: R. Zander (KGB Kernkraftwerk-Germany)

Automated Shutdown PSA Model Development for thePeach Bottom Atomic Power Station / J. Thomas Wilson(PECO Energy), Donald E. MacLeod, Leo B. Shanley, Don-ald E. Vanover (ERIN Eng, West Chester) 1375

Modeling Techniques and Insights from the Shutdown PSAfor the Kernkraftwerk Muhleberg / Alfred Torn (RMA), Di-eter Haschke (Kernkraftwerk MUhleberg-Switzerland) ... 1 3 8 3

PSA APPLICATIONS IN EASTERN EUROPE

Thursday, August 26, 199910:15 a.m.-Noon

Chair: /. Cillik (VUJE TRNAVA-Slovak Republic)

Internal Fire Analysis for J. Bohunice V2 NPP Within theFull Power and Shutdown PSA / Taltdn Kovdcs, RobertSpenlinger, Stanlislav Rydzi (RELKO-Slovak Republic) .. 1393

Operational Data Collection Elaboration and Reliability Pa-rameters Calculation for V-1 and V-2 NPPS J. Bohunice PSAPurposes / Ivan Cillik, Stojkovd Dana (VUJE TRNAVA-Slovak Republic) 1397

Differences in Approaches Used to Develop PSA Study forDifferent CANDU Plants / Liliana Comanescu (Nuclearelec-trica Romania-Romania) 1402

xvi

HUMAN RELIABILITY APPLICATIONSANALYSIS-II

Thursday, August 26, 199910:15 a.m.-Noon

Chair: J. Rempe (INEEL)

Preliminary Master Logic Diagram for Personnel Safety /L. C. Cadwallader (LMIT/INEEL) 1409

A Hazard Analysis Technique for Human-Computer Inter-face Design / Chin-Feng Fan, Wen-Hou Chen (Yuan-ZeUniv-Taiwan), Swu Yih (INER-Taiwan) 1417

A Technical Approach for Controlling Human Error in theDisassembly of Nuclear Weapons / Walter E. Gilmore, F.Kay Houghton (LANL) 1425

Author Index 1431

probabilistic safety assessment psa '99 risk …

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