prioritäre arbeitsgebiete der wsl 2000 bis 2003...2013/03/06 · how snow cover properties...
TRANSCRIPT
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Canton du Valais, Service des forêts et du paysage (SFP), section des dangers naturels
Kanton Graubünden, Amt für Wald Graubünden, Naturgefahren
Regione Valle d‘Aosta, Dipartimento Difesa del Suolo e Risorse Idriche
Regione Piemonte, Direzione Opere pubbliche, Difesa del Suolo, Economia Montana e Foreste
Regione Lombardia, Agenzia Regionale per la Protezione dell‘Ambiente
Arpa Lombardia, Direzione Generale Protezione Civile, Prevenzione e Polizia Locale
Arpa Piemonte, Agenzia Regionale per la Protezione Ambientale
SLF, WSL-Institut für Schnee- und Lawinenforschung SLF
http://www.progettostrada.net/
AINEVA, Associazione Interregionale Neve e Valanghe
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How snow cover properties influence avalanche dynamics
Walter Steinkogler1,2
Jochen Veitinger1,3, Betty Sovilla1, Michael Lehning1,2 1WSL-Institut für Schnee- und Lawinenforschung SLF
2CRYOS, Faculté de L’environnement naturel, architectural et construit , EPFL, Lausanne
3Geographisches Institut, Universität Zürich
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Content
The MOTIVATION
The MODELS (Alpine3D/SNOWPACK/RAMMS)
The RESULTS for winter 2012/13 in VDLS
The POSSIBLE APPLICATIONS
The (far) FUTURE
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Motivation – practical view
Roads Ski slopes Railway
Avalanches directly affect safety of many mountain communities
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Motivation – scientific view
Snow cover properties influence…
... the development of flow regimes and granulation
Key parameters: temperature, density, moisture content, granular size
Key parameters: erosion depth density
… the mass balance by defining the potential of entrainment of additional mass
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Motivation – scientific view
Alpine3D / SNOWPACK RAMMS
- „Rapid mass movements“ - 3D avalanche dynamics model
Used for hazard mapping in Switzerland
Recent large improvements in modelling of snow distribution in alpine terrain
Missing link: Influence of snow properties on flow dynamics
- spatially distributed (surface), three- dimensional (atmospheric) model
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Motivation
What can be used by practitioners directly and indirectly?!
Research Practitioneer
!!! Your input is needed Discussion/workshop !!!
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Differences in mobility
Example 1 Example 2
- 2 avalanches from VDLS dataset
- Similar initial conditions (release area) but very different ‚mobility‘
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Differences in mobility
Deposition structures:
Example 1: fan-shaped deposition, uniform granule distribution
Example 2: Flow-fingers, strong levee formation and big granules
Temperature granulation mobility
- 2 avalanches from VDLS dataset
- Similar initial conditions (release area) but very different ‚mobility‘
Example 1 Example 2
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Alpine3D
Alpine3D spatially distributed (surface), 3D (atmospheric) model
Input: multiple automatic weather stations
Modeling: supplementary data spatial distribution of snow and its properties
Grid: with 25 m cell resolution
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Alpine3D - HS
Practitioneer: Is the absolute snow height important in my area or avalanche path (roughness, release area size, …)??
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Alpine3D –dHS24
2012 12 04 2012 12 18 2013 01 11 2013 02 02
Practitioneer: Is the 24 hour new snow height important in my area (small vs. extreme avalanches) ??
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Alpine3D – TS40
Practitioneer: Is the snow temperature important in my avalanche path (cold/warm avalanches, cold in release and warm in the runout, …)??
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Alpine3D – TS40
2013 01 30 2013 01 31 2013 02 01 2013 02 02
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Alpine3D/SNOWPACK
A
D
C
Snow cover model SNOWPACK allows full snow pack information at every grid cell
Temperature profile at selected points along avalanche path
B
T(de) T(de) T(de) T(de)
#816 -8.0°C / 17.6°F
(2 m) -6.6°C / 20.1°F
(1.5 m) -3.3°C / 26.1°F
(1 m) -3.1°C / 26.4°F
(1.5 m)
#917 -5.5°C / 22.1°F
(2m) -4.9°C / 23.2°F
(1m) -1.1°C / 30.2°F
(1.5 m) -0.8°C / 30.6°F
(1.3 m)
A
D
C
B
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2013 02 02
2012 12 04
Alpine3D – TS40 & Radar
Snow temperature modeled with Alpine3D
Avalanche front velocity measured with Radar
For example picture see Sovilla-Intro.pdf
For example picture see Sovilla-Intro.pdf
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Applications: RAMMS
- Including temperature effects in RAMMS
Alpine3D
RAMMS
RAMMS
- Allows coupling to snow cover models (Alpin3D)
- Especially important for non-extreme avalanches
(Vera et. al., Thermal temperature in avalanche flow; ISSW 2012)
SNOWPACK
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The (far) future
Alpine3D
RAMMS
Further developing and combining of avalanche & snow cover models - Especially for non-extreme avalanches - From ‚quasi-real time‘ to forecasting - Forecasting for larger and data sparse regions - Regional hazard mapping
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Research Practitioneer
What does the practitioneer need???
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Appendix
APPENDIX
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Alpine3D / SNOWPACK
- Wet snow avalanche activity?
- Accurate enough for (rough) stratigraphy? Yes for dynamics, but also for LWD?
Full SNOWPACK output at every grid cell.
VDS 1 FMCW B FMCW A FMCW C
VDS 1
FMCW C
FMCW B
FMCW A
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Alpine3D/SNOWPACK
VDS 1
FMCW C
FMCW B
Snow cover model SNOWPACK allows full snow pack information at every grid cell
Temperature profile at selected points along avalanche path
FMCW A
T(de) T(de) T(de) T(de)
#816 -8.0°C / 17.6°F
(2 m) -6.6°C / 20.1°F
(1.5 m) -3.3°C / 26.1°F
(1 m) -3.1°C / 26.4°F
(1.5 m)
#917 -5.5°C / 22.1°F
(2m) -4.9°C / 23.2°F
(1m) -1.1°C / 30.2°F
(1.5 m) -0.8°C / 30.6°F
(1.3 m)
VDS 1
FMCW B
FMCW A
FMCW C