(presentation originally given to Priorities for London conference, 1 April 2015)

This is about growth, and how we deal with it.

A big theme is that London is still living off past investments in infrastructure – much of

it a hundred years old.

We can’t make do with this any longer, it’s time for London’s next huge wave of

investment – in health, education, transport and above all housing.

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It’s important to understand that London cannot stay the same – great cities are

dynamic organisms that constantly change

London had 50 years of decline and shrinkage – now it’s all about extraordinary growth

Employment growth brings people from all over UK and beyond - And that population

growth brings businesses here from all over the world.

It’s a virtuous spiral that we cannot control.

We either make the most of the opportunity, ride the growth and make it work, or we

break it and face the painful consequences.

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The chart shows 200 years of London’s rise, fall and rise again

No city in the world has ever before recovered from losing 2.25million people

South East England accounts for 13% of the total population growth across the whole

EU, and half of that is in London

No British city has ever grown this fast

So what do we need to do about it?

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1. Housing

Housebuilding ought to outpace population growth - household size has shrunk, and

higher standards of living should mean less overcrowding

But housebuilding has been consistently low now for years, and not responding to

targets

You can see the past London housebuilding peaks – Victorian inner suburbs, 1930s

Metro Land, and the post war reconstruction and social housing.

That is a huge amount of past investment that we still benefit from (and most of us still

live in).

How much housing investment will we make today for future generations to enjoy?

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2. Health

London is a long-lived city, but with big areas with much lower life expectancy.

Complex health needs – deprivation (TB – highest rates in western Europe, 40% of UK

TB), London even has a couple of cases of malaria a day! (from returning holiday makers)

Urgent need to restructure the size and location of facilities, and investment for growing

population

Again we benefit from lots of past investment.

Perhaps the greatest health infrastructure is Bazalgette sewer system, which ended

cholera and the great stink.

What health investment today will people thank us for in the future?

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3. Transport

Buses, almost back to peak – 2.1bn

Tube is carrying more than ever – 1.26bn

Once again we rely on a century or more of past investment, we’re still using railways a

century old or more.

London has grown – the blue on the map shows areas where more people commute

into London than work in their home district.

It’s now time to scale up out infrastructure, Crossrail 1, 2, 3…

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4. Education

We’ve had a boom in demand for Primary for some years

Now the Secondary boom is starting

133,000 more school places needed in four years

This is due to more births but also more families staying on in London, encouraged by a

great turnouround in quality

We need more schools, but will need innovation and difficult decisions to make room for

them.

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But we’ve done it before

In the 30 years following the 1870 Education Act, the School Board for London

added more than half a million school places in the capital, at a cost of £1.3bn in

today’s money.

At their peak they were opening a school a week – we’re still using these schools,

still benefiting from that past investment.

What legacy will we leave education with our investment today?

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