PRINSJESDAGLECTURE

15 September 2009

SOME FACTS AND OPINIONS ABOUT CRISIS

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What is Prinsjesdag about?

You can be proven wrong

If it is wrong, it is your fault

It is a lot of work

You have to be somewhat intelligent

It is solistic work

Proving wrong not possible

If it doesn’t come out, you canblame the others

The idea comes to you in a flash

No special need for intelligence

You must be a team player

Some simple facts about HUMANS®

The most flexible animal that nature devised

I

Making top quality can be time consuming

• Earth: 5 billion years

• Life on earth: 3 billion years

• Poly-cellular: 1 billion years

• Vertebrates : 500 million years

200 mil 100 mil 20 mil

5 4 3 2 1

•Mammals: 200 million years•Primates: 30 million years•Hominides: 2 million years•Homo sapiens: 200.000 years

Improvement also takes much timeOur model exists some 200.000 yearsOf those years 198.000 were before ChristAll that time we were building up our civilisationThe first 195.000 years this did not amount to muchThe last 5000 years culture grew with dazzling speedThe last 200 years, some amazing developments took place:We developed the technical means to deplete all fossil

material built up in the last 3 billion yearsWe developed the technical means to raise average age about

50 yearsWe developed the technical means to combat almost every

kind of disasterWe developed the technical means to create disasters on an

unheard of scaleThese means were then used by people who had the reflexes

of cavemen

Prinsjesdag?

Bullshit!!

PRIMARY CONCERNS OF ANIMAL & MAN1. Procreation (Courting, Mating, Rape, Prostitution, Pornography, Marriage)

2. Child care (Food, Safety, Temperature, Oilily, Kindergarten, Woonerf)

3. Belonging (Herd, Shoal, Flight, Family, Clan, Tribe, Nation, Community)

4. Status (Competition, Dominance hierarchy, Image building, Ferrari, Armani, Sports, War)

5. Communication (Signal systems, NV behavior, Language, Media, Cell phones)

6. Aggression (Fight/Flight, Threatening, Bluffing, Killing, Vandalism, Weapons)

7. Hunting (Awaiting, Chasing, Closing in, Stalking, Making the kill, Sales, Bonuses)

8. Foraging (Seeking food, Eating, Ruminating, Cooking, Sharing)

9. Exchange (Helping behavior, Nursing, Reciprocity, Trade, Wage-work)

10. Hoarding (Honey, Acorns, Food, CDs, Shoes, Model trains, Scalps, Dollars)

11. Territoriality (Making & defending: Area, House, Garden, Gates, Personal space)

12. Building (Lair, Nest, Trap, Dam, Tent, House, City)

13. Reconnaissance (Environment, Foes & Predators, Keeping guard, News, Sensation)

14. Migration (Swarming, Nomadism, Vacation, Emigration)

15. Body care (Preening, Washing, Grooming, Lipstick, Tattoo, Clothing)

16. Resting (Sleeping, Waiting, Sunning, Napping, Dolce far niente)

All 16 in two forms: For real and Play

Everything seems to be mixed up

Symbols as sources of misunderstanding

II

Mixed up

Pretty mixed up

Salaam aleikum

Less pretty, but just as mixed up

Why mixed up?• When things get mixed up, it’s always a question of

misunderstanding• If we knew why crises happen, we could win a world• Social psychology gives a useful suggestion here:

Competition is the key• Things or outcomes have no objective value• The outcome is always relative to what others get• Thus social comparison is the only lead we have• Males become very competitive if the number of marbles they

have threatens to be less than their concurrent• Females are also very competitive, but not so much in marbles,

they tend to focus on relations

Some times are more mixed up than others

We call such times: Crisis

III

© 2006 JP van de Sande RuGRiots in Holland 1600-1790 (5 year-average)

30 25 30 35 25 25

© 2006 JP van de Sande RuGRiots in France 1830-1960 Source: Tilly & Tilly, 1975

20 23 22 10 32 33

© 2006 JP van de Sande RuGSome facts about “crisis”• From: decision

• Was used in medicine: death or gladiols

• Around 1900 applied to other fields

• But the crisis of 1930 was called: Depression

• The word crisis nowadays is mainly used for critical periods in government and management

• A crisis is only a crisis when it is called a crisis

• This is done very eagerly by the media

• So thanks to them we have crises in almost everything: economics, finance, government, sports, science, the

church, education, health care, family life, politics, the media, etc.

What is crisis?• Crisis is not that everybody loses some money, that things

get broken, lives are in danger, norms and laws lose their power, people and cattle take flight, et cetera.

• For bankers, police, fire brigades, etc. that is just: work • Crisis is that the governing system breaks down, loses

oversight and desists to lead or takes crucial wrong decisions.

• Crisis thus is more about what we think leaders do and about loss of trust. Not about facts: We know them not!

• Therefore the Romans knew the dictator (180 days max.)• In hindsight it is mostly possible to devise a reasonable

solution• Then it must also be possible in foresight!

Consequences of crisis• Because our society is so highly organised, it is also very

susceptible to crisis, and a crisis is very devastating– Everything is connected to everything– Everything thus needs to be managed an coordinated– There is little slack and thus small margins (lean organisations: small

stocks, high productivity of work force, no redundancy)

– Employees are highly specialized – There are only a few sources of energy, over which we have no

control– Only a few know something about “Natural Mechanics”– Therefore modern man, and thus modern society is far less

flexible as regards survival than 50 years ago. (Life without computers, cell phones, TV’s, plastic, cars, supermarkets, etc. is unthinkable)

– Subconsciously we realize that it is so, thus we are very interested in crises

Starting and ending points of crisis (Chaos model)

NUMBERinvolved

STRENGTH of STIMULUS

CRISIS is intrinsically human• CRISES ARE CAUSED BY HUMANS

• Things are normal until we call them abnormal

• CRISES ARE MAINTAINED BY HUMANS

• When things go wrong everybody reacts in the same way, thus causing more havoc

• CRISES ARE SOLVED BY HUMANS• As soon as confidence is restored, and this will

happen inevitably, the crisis is solved

Lessons from psychology therefore may be of some use to us

Some opinions about HUMANS®

The meeting of caveman and culture

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© 2006 JP van de Sande RuGMankind travels along two railsNATURE

We are mammals‘Instincts’Behavioural mechanismsSlow development

SOCIETY: GemeinschaftNeed to belongGroup goalsDuty; Honour; TraditionConservative; StabilityReligion; MagicCharismatic leadershipSTRONG TIES

CrisisCohesion & cooperation upImprovisation Fight/flight

CULTUREWe are rational thinkers

Norms & ValuesCost-Benefit analysisQuick planning

SOCIETY: GesellschaftNeed for freedomGoals are individualisticFreedom; Money; ChangeProgressive; DynamicIdeology; ScienceTransactional leadershipWEAK TIES

CrisisCohesion & cooperation down Planning & prioritiesProfessionality

LEADERSHIP & CRISIS• Crisis: Grave perturbation of normal business and normal forms of

organization. Per definition not well prepared

• Effect: New norms and forms of organization are needed. Everyone tries his own solutions and primarily cares for himself and his family. This generally results in CHAOS.

SO• In crisis people need direction, and any direction is better than none.

• Therefore people in crisis look for leadership as a means of obtaining unidirectionality

• The leader must be a suitable person to identify with

• If the leader is seen as ‘one of us’, and thus as strong and honest, he is effective, e.g. in combating rumors

• In crisis it is impossible to obtain correct information, therefore we believe what the ‘one of us’ leader says

Charismatic or transformational leadership. Freud’s vision (1921)

• Basics– Man is born with the aptitude for many social mechanisms– In the Primal horde, these are seen in their purest form– Hierarchy and despotism are the rule. Love and hate for the leader occur together

• Starting points– Leader has special competences (practical and verbal) and fascination for an idea– Leader has personal liking for his inferiors and tends to seek them out– Leader has Narcistic personality– Therefore leader needs constant confirmation of excellency of own self by inferiors

• Development– On the basis of these competences leader gains credit– Credit is seen by leader as proof that his narcistic choice was right– Followers feel important through identification with the leader

• Effects:– Leader’s wish is felt as own wish (identification)– Leader keeps gaining strength (vicious circle)– Every follower has the idea that he has a personal relation with leader– Strong and self-willed followers get into conflict and either leave group or win

PROBLEMSOLVING for FOLLOWERS

Some opinions• A crisis is a malady of the commonwealth

• Crisis is worldwide, because our economy is worldwide.

• Globalisation not only enhances the benefits of being clever, it also enhances the penalties for doing wrong.

• If economy were something which was different in each human group, then these groups would still have crises but they would not happen together at the same time. For one community the camels would get scarce, for another there would be too much kauri shells, for one community the potlatch would appear to have been too ample to stay alive, for another the maidens would run out, so that no suitable offerings for the gods could be found and consequently it would not rain.

• Autonomy and autarky thus are means to ensure the survival of most of us

• The motor of globalisation is the Faustian wish to conquer all. (e.g. “Denn heute gehort uns Deutschland, und morgen die ganze

Welt”)• Growth is something which belongs to childhood

War organisation vs. Peace organisationTraining period longSelection on managerial capacities

Promotion based on avoiding blame

Goals long termDemocratic attitude and leadershipConcern for correct proceduresSanctions for relatively small

infractionsTechnical solutions for human

problemsRivality between servicesProfessionalisationPreparation

Training period shortSelection on inspiration and

enthousiasmPromotion based on results

Goals short termAutoritarian attitude and leadership“Cutting the red tape”Polarisation in sanctions

Human solutions for technical problems

Superordinate goal reduces rivalitiesImprovisationResilience