primary national strategy understanding and using data © crown copyright 2005

PrimaryNational StrategyUnderstanding and using data

© Crown Copyright 2005


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Aims

• developing a strategic approach to the management of inclusion;

• developing their middle management skills;• making effective use of data to improve

teaching and learning and to celebrate children’s progress.

To support those who lead or coordinate inclusion in:

2.1


School improvement questions

• How well are we doing?

• How do we compare with similar schools?

• How well should we be doing?

• What more can we aim to achieve next year?

• What must we do to make it happen?

2.2


The cycle for school improvement

1

25

34

How well are we doing?

How well should

we be doing?

Taking action and reviewing

What must we do to make it

happen?

What more can we aim to achieve?

Cycle for school

improvement

2.3


Activity 1

Discussion questions:

• Are there particular groups of children at risk of underachievement in your school?

• How do you currently track and evaluate their progress?

• What types of data might you draw on?

2.4


Possible groups

• girls and boys• children who are disabled or who have special educational

needs• minority ethnic and faith groups• children learning English as an additional language • Travellers, asylum seekers, refugees• children with social and emotional difficulties• children in public care• sick children • young carers • children from families under stress• children at risk of disaffection, poor attendance or exclusion 2.5


Possible data

• Foundation Stage Profile• end of key stage data• optional tests• teacher assessments, P scales assessment• achievement of targets – curricular, IEP, PSP• attendance and exclusions• relevant behaviour measures • value-added – progress as well as achievement• QCA Language in common step descriptors and

any other EAL or first language assessments2.6


Inclusion and school improvement – an increasingly data rich context

• variance in children’s outcomes – a concern to raise achievement for all

• informed, systematic approach to improve children’s progress – every child matters and dealing with inequalities

• inclusion coordinators and other managers using data to inform strategy and teaching at school, class, group and individual levels

• increasing availability of data via PLASC, National Curriculum and other assessment results

• the power of ICT to process the information 2.7


Excellence and enjoyment

‘Ensure every child succeeds: provide an inclusive education within a culture of high expectations.’

Target setting:‘A whole-school approach which focuses on meeting pupils’ individual needs and on using detailed information to set stretching and appropriate targets for each pupil.’

2.8


Primary National Strategy

A great deal to celebrate:

• standards have risen dramatically;

• quality of teaching and learning improved;

• world-class comparisons

2.9


‘Off the plateau’ at level 4+

provisional


% l

evel

4+

2.10


Percentage of all children below level 3 at the end of Key Stage 2

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

English 7 7 6 7 7 7 7

Maths 7 6 6 5 5 6 6

2.11


The percentage of children

• below levels 1 and 2 at end of Key Stage 1

• below level 3 at end of Key Stage 2

• below level 2 at end of Key Stage 1 who attain

level 3+ at end of Key Stage 2

2.12


100% -

-

-

-

-

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%A B C D E F G H

Schools

Percentage of all children below level 3 at the end of Key Stage 2

2.13

Below level 3 Complex SEN EAL


The effects of social disadvantageThe achievement gap between low FSM and high FSM schools has narrowed …

Source: Form 7 and ASC data. Performance tables dataCoverage: Maintained mainstream schools

Dif

fere

nc

e b

etw

een

th

e K

ey

Sta

ge

2 l

eve

l 4

+ %

of

the

lo

we

st

and

h

igh

es

t F

SM

ba

nd

s

– p

erc

enta

ge

po

ints

2.14


…but the achievement gap between non-FSM and FSM children has stayed the same

Source: NPD CubeviewerCoverage: Maintained mainstream schools. 2003 Attainment matched to 2003 PLASC and 1997 Attainment (as prior attainment) matched to 2002 PLASC

Dif

fere

nc

e b

etw

een

th

e K

ey

Sta

ge

2 l

eve

l 4

+ %

of

no

n-F

SM

an

d F

SM

p

up

ils

– p

erc

en

tag

e p

oin

ts

2.15


Outcomes for children from differentethnic groups – English

Effect of ethnicity and deprivation on KS2 English results

-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10

ChineseIrish

White and AsianIndian

Any other mixed backgroundWhite British

White and Black AfricanAny other White backgroundAny other Asian backgroundWhite and Black Caribbean

UnclassifiedAny other Black background

BangladeshiBlack Caribbean

Black AfricanAny other ethnic group

PakistaniGypsy/Roma

Traveller of Irish Heritage

Difference in percentage of pupils achieving level 4+

Observed ethnicityeffect

Traveller of Irish heritage

Gypsy/Roma

Pakistani

Any other ethnic group

Black African

Black Caribbean

Bangladeshi

Any other black background

Unclassified

White and black Caribbean

Any other Asian background

Any other white background

White and black African

White British

Any other mixed background

Indian

White and Asian

Irish

Chinese

Effect of ethnicity and deprivation on Key Stage 2 English results


-

2.16




Gypsy/Roma

Pakistani


Black African

Black Caribbean

Bangladeshi


Unclassified





White British


Indian

White and Asian

Irish

Chinese




-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10

ChineseIrish







PakistaniGypsy/Roma



-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10

Effect of difference inFSM rates


-

2.17




Gypsy/Roma

Pakistani


Black African

Black Caribbean

Bangladeshi


Unclassified





White British


Indian

White and Asian

Irish

Chinese




-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10

ChineseIrish







PakistaniGypsy/Roma



-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10


Effect of ethnicity net ofFSM


Effect of difference in FSM rates

Effect of ethnicity net of FSM

Observed ethnicity effect

-

2.18


Outcomes for children from differentethnic groups – Mathematics


Gypsy/Roma

Pakistani


Black African

Black Caribbean

Bangladeshi


Unclassified





White British


Indian

White and Asian

Irish

Chinese

Effect of ethnicity and deprivation on Key Stage 2 maths results


Effect of ethnicity and deprivation on KS2 Maths results

-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20

ChineseIrish







PakistaniGypsy/Roma




-

2.19




Gypsy/Roma

Pakistani


Black African

Black Caribbean

Bangladeshi


Unclassified





White British


Indian

White and Asian

Irish

Chinese




-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20

ChineseIrish







PakistaniGypsy/Roma



-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20



-

2.20




Gypsy/Roma

Pakistani


Black African

Black Caribbean

Bangladeshi


Unclassified





White British


Indian

White and Asian

Irish

Chinese




-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20

ChineseIrish







PakistaniGypsy/Roma



-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20


Effect of ethnicity net ofFSM


-

Effect of difference in FSM rates

Effect of ethnicity net of FSM

Observed ethnicity effect

2.21


Children looked after by the local authority (LAC)

% achieving level 2 at the end of Key Stage 1

% achieving level 4 at the end of Key Stage 2

All children LAC All children LAC

2002 85% 50% 78% 40%

2003 85% 53% 78% 42%

2.22


Transitions Key Stage 1 to Key Stage 2

The percentage of children achieving below level 2 at end of Key Stage 1 who achieve level 3+ at end of Key Stage 2

2003 2004

English 67 64

Mathematics 70 69

2.23


Value-added

• looks at progress as well as attainment;

• assumes prior attainment is correlated with later attainment;

• can show ‘average’ performance for individuals with same prior attainment;

• statutory key stage and optional QCA test and teacher assessment data can be recorded using Pupil Achievement Tracker;

• data can be filtered to show progress for different groups of children;

• can incorporate contextual factors. 2.24


What is a value-added linegraph?

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Key

Sta

ge

2 2

003

aver

age

po

ints

sco

re

Key Stage 1 average point score

UQ

LQ

NationalMedian Line

SchoolMedian Line

2.25


Pupil attributes

• class / year group

• Wave 2 and 3 interventions

• involvement of agencies

• additional interventions via IEPs, PEPs, PSPs

• exclusions

Data about provision, targeted interventions or sanctions for example.

• date of birth• gender• type of SEN• pupil in care• ethnicity• EAL step descriptors,

(early, advanced)

Contextual data about individuals, for example.

2.26


National value-added line graphs

•

2004 Key Stage 2 English value-added line

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

5 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20+

Average 2000 Key Stage 1 points score

200

4 K

ey S

tag

e 2

En

gli

sh

mar

k

Level 4

Level 5

Level 3

2.27


Basic view

2.28


Multiple attributes

2.29


One attribute highlighted

2.30


Single group

2.31


Optional tests

2.32


Converting levels to points scores

• W = 3• level 1 = 9• level 2 = 15• level 3 = 21• level 4 = 27• level 5 = 33

Average Key Stage 1 points score is the average of reading, writing and mathematics.

2.33



Level Sublevel Points

1

1c

1b

1a

7

9

11

2

2c

2b

2a

13

15

17

3

3c

3b

3a

19

21

23

4

4c

4b

4a

25

27

29 2.34



• P scales – possible point scores

(as proposed by PIVATS)

• P3 = 1 P4 = 1.5

• P5 = 2 P6 = 2.5

• P7 = 3 P8 = 5

2.35


Significance of points

• Minimum expected progress of approximately 2 NC levels or 6 sub-levels over Key Stage 2 (12 terms)

– 2 levels or 6 sub-levels = 12 points

– 1 term = 1 point

– average progress roughly = 1 sub-level in two terms

– (actual progress varies in relation to prior attainment – generally across Key Stage 2 it is a little higher than 12 points)

• Higher rate of progress needed for individuals to ‘catch up’

• Higher rate of progress required nationally if we are to raise standards

2.36


School level value-added measure

PupilPupil’s

KS1 APSPupil’s

KS2 APSMedian KS2 APS

for KS1 APSPupil’s

VA score

A 19.7 31 33 -2

B 15 30 27 +3

C 15 25 27 -2

D 21 33 33 0

Total of all pupils’ value added scores = –1Average value added score per pupil = –1/4 (number of pupils)

School’s value added score = –0.25Centred around 100 = 99.75 (rounded to 99.8 for publication)

2.37


Interpreting the value-added measure

• One value-added point is equivalent to one sixth of a level or one term’s progress.

• A value-added measure of 99 means that on average each of the school’s children made a sixth of a level less (or one term less) progress between Key Stage 1 and Key Stage 2 than the median for children with the same Key Stage 1 achievement.

2.38


Cohort sizes

Number of

children

Boundaries within which results are not considered to be statistically different from the average

Lower boundary Upper boundary

10 98.4 101.6

30 99.1 100.9

50 99.3 100.72.39


PANDA Grades

• nationally;• ‘similar’ schools

– free school meal eligibility– prior attainment.

Ofsted performance and assessment reports – schools are benchmarked for comparison with other schools:

2.40


Benchmark groups

Free school mealsPrior attainment

(average point scores)

Up to and including 8% Up to but not including 12

More than 8% and up to 20% At least 12 but less than 14



More than 50% Greater than or equal to 18

2.41


Medians and quartiles

95% 75% 60% 50% 40% 25% 5%

Upper quartile

Median Lower quartile

A*

A B C D E E*

2.42


FSM benchmarks

Percentage of children achieving level 4 and above up to and including 8%

95% UQ 60% Median 40% LQ 5%

English A* 100 A 93 B 89 C 86 C 83 D 79 E 64 E*

Maths 100 90 86 83 80 75 59

Science 100 100 97 95 93 90 80

Percentage of children achieving level 4 and above more than 50%

95% UQ 60% Median 40% LQ 5%


Maths 86 70 62 58 53 47 31

Science 95 84 79 76 72 64 45

2.43


Prior attainment benchmarks

Percentage of children achieving level 4 and above up to but not including 12

95% UQ 60% Median 40% LQ 5%


Maths 78 57 51 48 45 37 21

VA 103.1 101.3 100.7 100.3 99.9 99.3 97.9

Percentage of children achieving level 4 and above greater than or equal to 18

95% UQ 60% Median 40% LQ 5%


Maths 100 100 98 94 92 88 73

VA 101.5 100.1 99.7 99.3 99.1 98.8 97.8

2.44


National Transition matrices 2000 (Key Stage 1) – 2004 (Key Stage 2)

Key Stage 2 English Level

KS1 Points D B N 2 3 4 5 A

Less than 7 8 45 17 4 19 5 0 3

7 to less than 9 2 20 17 6 39 13 0 3

9 to less than 12 0 6 7 4 47 32 1 2

12 to less than 14 0 1 1 1 31 61 4 1

14 to less than 16 0 0 0 0 11 73 15 1

16 to less than 18 0 0 0 0 2 59 38 1

18 or more 0 0 0 0 0 29 70 0

2.45


National conversion indicators 2000 (Key Stage 1) – 2004 (Key Stage 2)

ReadingNumber

of children

% of children achieving at KS2

B3 3 4 5 A L4+

KS1

D 1751 75 8 12 4 1 16

W 17216 70 16 10 1 3 11

1 85890 26 31 36 5 2 41

2C 96099 5 20 59 16 1 74

2B 122493 1 8 58 33 1 90

2A 92414 0 3 48 49 1 96

3 168749 0 0 17 83 0 99

4+ 397 0 0 1 98 0 992.46


2004 Key Stage 2 English value-added progress charts

9 <= Key Stage 1 Average Point Score < 12

7% 4%

46%

1%

33%

8%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

B N 2 3 4 5

Key Stage 2 ENGLISH Test LevelKey stage 2 English test level

2.47


Value-added

• Shows individual children (in red) against the national median and upper/lower quartiles

www.standards.dfes.gov.uk/ performance/ap/

2.48


Activity

• How well are we doing?

• How well should we be doing?

The value-added graph shows progress of children between Key Stage 1 and Key Stage 2. Consider how this school might answer:

How might the implications of the data be explored further ?

2.49


Questions to discuss

What data is useful to collect? Why?

What action might follow the value-added data analysis undertaken by the school?

2.50


Aims

• developing a strategic approach to the management of inclusion;

• developing their middle management skills;• making effective use of data to improve

teaching and learning and celebrate children’s progress.

To support those who lead on or coordinate inclusion in:

2.51


Session outline

• Brief introduction and recap

• The case study

• Feedback and discussion

• Priorities and action planning

• Conclusions

2.52


A brief recap

• The school improvement framework– how well are we…variance between schools

and groups of children?

• Increasingly rich data about children’s attainment and progress– improvements over time– comparisons with national, local and similar

schools’ data– comparing progress of different groups of children

• PAT, value-added line graphs, PANDAs, transition matrices and progress charts 2.53


• Consider the data you have about the case study school.

• What initial hypotheses or further questions can be drawn from the ‘How well are we…how do we compare…what should we …’ questions?

How well are we?

2.54


One view…

• This is a very caring school that provides well for some children sometimes.

• The use of data is not systematic.

• There is a culture of low expectations.

• Provision and interventions are not well

evaluated.

2.55


…and some proposals

• We will develop our use of data so as to maintain, improve and target high-quality teaching and learning.

• Our leadership team will provide a clear road map for developing systematic use of data, to include– clear role for coordinators;– involvement of all staff.

• We will develop ‘our’ way of tracking progress – for all children, particularly vulnerable groups.

• We will focus teaching priorities by ensuring manageable targets that are understood by all.

2.56


Priorities

• The headteacher wants to ensure a systematic whole-school approach to the use of data to analyse, improve and celebrate children’s progress.

• In relation to lower-attaining or vulnerable children, what three priorities would you suggest?

• What specific actions would help progress the priority areas you have identified?

2.57


Key actions

• A clear, resourced and timed action plan: – specified actions for all staff– training and consultation

• What data would be good to collect and why?

• How and when should we use it?

• What must we do make it happen?

• Track pupil progress: regular assessment points including QCA optional tests.

• A limited, coherent set of targets.• Map our provision.

2.58


Tracking pupil progress

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21+

Input score (e.g. Key Stage 1 average point score)

Ou

tco

me

Sco

re (

e.g

. Yea

r 3

op

tio

nal

tes

t)

2.59


We have considered

• the use of data to analyse, improve and celebrate children’s progress;

in order

• to support strategic management of inclusion and personalised learning;

sustained within a

• collaborative and distributed leadership approach.

2.60


Next steps

• For you as an individual or leadership team

• For us as a group

2.61

primary national strategy understanding and using data © crown copyright 2005

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