PRIMAPrototypical Policy Impacts on

Multifunctional Activitiesin Rural Municipalities

1/11/2008 – 31/10/2011 (36 months)

7th PCRD, Environnement

IRES 19.04.2010 N°2

Aim of the project

I compute my next state

I compute my next state

To develop downscaling and upscaling methods of policy impacts on multifunctionality based on microsimulation and agent based models

IRES 19.04.2010 N°3

Prima modelling approaches

Micro-simulation Simple agents, with rules of evolutions based on

probabilities of events, or simple decision rules (no complex interactions between agents)

Common approach to couple demography with other types of dynamics

Agent-based models More complex decision rules, taking into account the

interactions between agents Heterogeneity of decision rules between agents

IRES 19.04.2010 N°4

Aim of the project

The models have to deal with the structural evolution of the populations (appearance, disappearance and change of agents) regarding local conditions and policies.

European measures to take into account are build from: Structural Funds (SFs), Cohesion Fund (CF), Preaccession funds (PAFs)

Cohesion funds sensu lato(ERDF, ESF, Cohesion)

Pre-accession Funds(ISPA)(EAFRD)

Axis 1: Competitiveness

Axis 2: Environment & Land management

Axis 3: Economic diversification& Quality of life

Objectives dealing withCompetitiveness…

Rural Development Funds

Axis

LE

ADE

R

…Environment &Land management…

…Economic diversification& Quality of life

Environment

Transport

IRES 19.04.2010 N°5

11 members from 8 countries

1. Cemagref, France, coordinator

2. University of Dortmund, Faculty of Spatial Planning , Germany

3. University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgary

4. Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Dept. of Economics and Resources Management, Norway

5. Agricultural Economics Research Institute, Wageningen UR, The Netherlands

6. Newcastle University, Centre for Rural Economy, Royaume-Uni

7. Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe, Halle/Saale, Germany

8. University of Groningen, Faculty of Economics and Business, The Netherlands

9. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Netherlands10. Research Institute of Agricultural Economics, Czech Republic

11. University of Zagreb, Faculty of Agriculture, Croatia

IRES 19.04.2010 N°6

Budget

Global budget: 2 603 430 Euros- RTD 2 416 376 Euros- management 187 054 Euros

EU contribution 1 999 335 Euros

IRES 19.04.2010 N°7

6 case study regions

500km

Derbyshire &Nottinghamshire

UK

FR

DECZ

HR

BG

Auvergne

Istrian region

South Moravia

Altmark

North CentralPlanning Region

IRES 19.04.2010 N°8

1. Scenario design

2. S

take

hold

ers

pers

pect

ives

and

pa

rtici

pato

ry a

ppro

ache

s3. Micro models of municipalities

4. Generalisation at the regional

level

5. Aggregated models:

downscaling at the regional level

6. Impact assessment: improvment

Workpackages and main tasks

IRES 19.04.2010 N°9

LISC agenda

1. Conceive a conceptual model of a municipality2. Test and adapt it to the case study regions3. Conceive a conceptual model of the region, based

on the one of municipality4. Extraction of prototypical dynamics at the pertinent

level for a given process5. Evaluation of uncertainties on the possible futures

given by the model

Regular assessments of the model by stakeholders and extraction of their knowledge on the story basis.

IRES 19.04.2010 N°10

A conceptual model

The modelling work required clear objectives for the model. These objectives are defined by the scientific questions addressed by the model: What are the main tendencies at municipality level in

terms of: structure of the population structure of activities (especially their diversity) structure of land use

From a practical point of view, the interpretation of the model results has to allow to answer to:

How these tendencies induced a particular level and form of multifunctionality assessed at the municipality level ?

What is the likely impact on these tendencies of different European policies ?

IRES 19.04.2010 N°11

Objective of micro-simulation model

model the evolution of: population (size, distribution of age), distribution of activities and housing land use distribution (main categories), offer of main services,

in one municipality (or a small set of municipalities) on a first stage

in all rural municipalities of a region for WP4 on the second stage

under scenario on: municipality policy (in particular the use of structural

funds) external context evolution

IRES 19.04.2010 N°12

Discovering the conceptual model

Viewed by an individual

Viewed at the village level

Viewed at the regional level

IRES 19.04.2010 N°13

LIVE

SITUATEDMEMBER

HAS AN ACTIVITY PATTERN

0

1

0

0

0

0

0CONSUMES SERVICES

The individual ages in a situated household

INSIDEMUNICIPALITY

SITUATED

OR

OUTSIDE

IRES 19.04.2010 N°14

Conceptual model: the village, state variables

Households

Lodging L1 L2 L3 L4

Land use U1 U2U2 U4

Municipality

Other Industries

J2J1 J3

Services

S1 S2J4

Reachable outside

J6J5

Other industries Services

S3 S4J5

IRES 19.04.2010 N°15

The municipality model

Municipality Reachable outsideaccess to jobs and services

IRES 19.04.2010 N°16

The region model

M1

M3

M2

M4

M6 M7

M5

M8

M9

RO1RO2

RO5

RO8

RO7

RO9

RO6

RO3

IRES 19.04.2010 N°17

The dynamics

Individual and household: mainly endogeneous

Village as a “policy” maker: partly endogeneous and exogeneous

Region: that is the outside -> exogeneous

IRES 19.04.2010 N°18

The model dynamics: main loop

At each time step: For all municipalities and reachable outside:

• apply scenario: update jobs, services, land use, generate potential migrants

For all households (including migrants):• update household (age of individuals, location, house

and activity, household structure) For all municipalities:

• update land use, houses, jobs and services (according to internal dynamics)

IRES 19.04.2010 N°19

State variablesState variables Examples

Individuals

…ac2ac1activit

…p2p1profile

…a2a1age

…i2i1index profile = « catégorie socio-professionnelle »activity = [status, activity nature, activity place], status: categories from labour survey including inactive, unemployed, student, retired…

Households

…R2R1house

…L2L1ind lst

…t2t1type

…h2h1indextype = single, couple, single parent, otherhouse = type of house

Land use…CLu2CLu1constr.

…SLu2SLu1surfac.

…Lu2Lu1typetype = residential, industry, agriculture, forest, infrastructure (from CORINE)constraints = limit surfaces

…nR2nR1nb

…R2R1typeHousing type = flat or house, nb of rooms.

Services…nXS2nXS1nb ro

…nS2nS1nb in

…S2S1type type = broad categories from surveysreachable outside = outside model municipalitiesaccessible services.

Jobs

…nXJ2nXJ1nb ro

…nJ2nJ1nb in

…J2J1type type = matching activitiesreachable outside = idem.

NeighbourMunicipalities ListNeighbourMunic Based on distance between municipalities

IRES 19.04.2010 N°20

State variables and scenarios

Individuals

…ac2ac1activit

…p2p1profile

…a2a1age

…i2i1index

Households

Land use

…nR2nR1nb

…R2R1typeHouses

Services

Jobs

…CLu2CLu1constr.

…SLu2SLu1surfac.

…Lu2Lu1type

…nXS2nXS1nb ro

…nS2nS1nb in

…S2S1type

…nXJ2nXJ1nb ro

…nJ2nJ1nb in

…J2J1type

NeighbourMunicipalities ListNeighbourMunic

…Lx2Lx1ind lst

…tx2tx1type

…hx2hx1index

…acx2acx1activit

…px2px1profile

…ax2ax1age

…ix2ix1indexMigrations from outsideonly

Migrations from outside only

…CLu2CLu1C

…SLu2SLu1S

…Lu2Lu1type

…nR2nR1nb

…R2R1type

…nXS2nXS1nb ro

…nS2nS1nb in

…S2S1type

…nXJ2nXJ1nb ro

…nJ2nJ1nb in

…J2J1type

ListNeighbourMunic

State variables Scenario

…R2R1house

…L2L1ind lst

…t2t1type

…h2h1index

IRES 19.04.2010 N°21

Regional scenario

Municipality set scenario

Applies to a set of municipalities.

Applies to all municipalities of the region

Municipality scenario

Applies to only one municipality.

Multi-level scenarios

IRES 19.04.2010 N°22

Internal dynamics

Individuals

…ac2ac1activit

…p2p1profile

…a2a1age

…i2i1index

Households

Land use

…nR2nR1nb

…R2R1typeHouses

Services

Jobs

…CLu2CLu1constr.

…SLu2SLu1surfac.

…Lu2Lu1type

…nXS2nXS1nb ro

…nS2nS1nb in

…S2S1type

…nXJ2nXJ1nb ro

…nJ2nJ1nb in

…J2J1type

NeighbourMunicipalities ListNeighbourMunic

State variables Dynamics

…R2R1house

…L2L1ind lst

…t2t1type

…h2h1index

all events – see details after

split, merge, collapse, birth, move

Building of new houses by households

Creation – destruction of services connectedwith population density and distribution

Creation – destruction of service jobs

IRES 19.04.2010 N°23

Rural individual endogeneous dynamics

An individual ages. During its life, it:

N°23

quits the parental household joins a partner quits a partner stops the study to enter on the

labour market has a child intentionally remains without

working looks for a job looks for a residence loses a job gets a job changes of job without

changing village changes of job place

moves for changing of residence in the same village

moves for changing of village but remains close

moves outside asks for services stops using services dies

quit the parental

householdgets a job join a

partnerstop the study to enter on the labour market

quit the parental

household

join a partner

stop the study to enter on the labour market gets a job

quit the partner

have a child

IRES 19.04.2010 N°24

Individual dynamics: Deciding looking for a job

UNEMPLOYED

WORKER INACTIVE

Punemp→inact

Pwork→inact

1-Pinact→inactalso become Unemployed

Pinact→inactPactpat

i→actpat i

fired by municipality

Look for a job

Pactpat i→actpat j with j ≠ 0

1 -Punemp→inact

Labour survey

IRES 19.04.2010 N°25

Household dynamics: moving and working

all members satisfied?

No

need a residence?Yes

Find a residence close to the

intersection of the job locations of the

parents

2 parents have a new work? Yes Yes

Find a residence close to the current

living place

No

Move outside the region

Selection of one of the working

parents to be the leader to follow

Leader find a job in the region?

The household does not move and

nobody changes work

No

Leader looks for a job? Yes

No

All other looking for a job members has

found a job close to the leader’s job?

Yes

No

Yes

The household member tries to

satisfy their job need locally

At least, one member looks for a job?

Household needs a residence?

Yes

No Yes

No

Nothing happens

YesLeader is alone as a worker

No

IRES 19.04.2010 N°26

LISC agenda

1. Conceive a conceptual model of a municipality2. Test and adapt it to the case study regions3. Conceive a conceptual model of the region, based

on the one of municipality4. Extraction of prototypical dynamics at the pertinent

level for a given process5. Evaluation of uncertainties on the possible futures

given by the model

Regular assessments of the model by stakeholders and extraction of their knowledge on the story basis.