prices went up from $1,477/mt to $1,526/mt

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In 2011-12 harvest, Trakya Birlik ended up buying 232,343 tonnes of sunseeds which is more or less their own annual consumption quantity. On the other hand, CIF import price of 44% oil content sunseeds between September-December 2011 averaged at $524/mt, therefore Trakya Birlik ended up paying a premium of $23 per tonne to the farmers, over international market price. The top graphic on the right shows the price development of domestic crude sunoil vs. import crude price from the beginning of 2011 until 6th January 2012. The botom graphic on the right shows the price development of sunflowerseeds

Local Market Developments In the last 4 weeks, domestic crude sunoil prices went up from $1,477/mt to $1,526/mt with demand driven sales and rising international sunoil and sunseed prices. US$/TL exchange rate gradually rose from 1.85 to 1.88, touching 1.92 for a while amidst government intervention. The demand in second half of December was almost non-existent but with the new year demand rapidly picked up resulting in price rise. Turkish vegoils stocks are running at a minimum since the summer months, when industrialists off-loaded stocks and ran on minimum levels with collapsing sun complex. Early January saw some stock building effort by major refiners but domestic stocks are still at a record low level. Trakya Birlik, who announced an advance purchase price of 1,125 TL on 40% oil basis back on 2nd September declared their final price as 1,185 TL on the same basis on 22nd December. This meant a price premium of 60 TL/mt, corresponding to $18.50/mt on CIF Marmara basis. With original advance price of $528.68/mt on 44% oil basis and US$/TL exchange rate of 1.90 on the announcement date of final price gives an average sunseeds purchase price of $547/mt by Trakya Birlik for the 2011-12 crop season.


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on CIF Marmara ports basis versus domestic crop delivered factory for the same period. Turkey is currently crushing almost 100% imported sunseeds imported from Romania, Bulgaria, Moldova and Ukraine. The domestic crude oil market at the moment is operating at the cost, calculated on world sunseed prices.

The graph below shows the price development of domestic crude sunflower oil on ex-works Thrace basis, from the beginning of 2011 and today, in US$/mt.

Turkish Oilseed Crops Domestic oilseed production has reached at 1,93 million tonnes in 2010-11 season with 950,000 tonnes of sunseeds, 880,000 tonnes of cottonseeds, 55,000 tonnes of rapeseeds and 45,000 tonnes of soybeans.

For 2011-12 season, we estimate a total Turkish oilseed production of 2.075 million tonnes. We now peg Turkish cottonseed production at 1.1 million tonnes with 900,000 tonnes of sunseeds, 40,000 tonnes of rapeseeds and 35,000 tonnes of soybeans. We see Turkish sunflowerseeds production according to regions, as follows:

Thrace 450,000 tonnes Çukurova 150,000 tonnes Konya 110,000 tonnes Southern Marmara 80,000 tonnes Black Sea 55,000 tonnes Elsewhere 55,000 tonnes Total 900,000 tonnes

Industry Consumer demand remained poor for most of December with moderate crushings and poor retailer demand in front of the new year. Domestic sunoil stocks are still very low in comparison to this time last year. After almost 2 years of weak demand for corn oil, the demand now is picking up. However sunflower oil, certainly took the lion’s share in the last two seasons in Turkish liquid oils consumption and we expect it to futher grow in 2012. In 2010-11 season Turkish liquid oils consumption grew by %20. Within the liquid oils, share of sunflower oil grew by 6.5%, out-of-home share (mostly sunflower oil) grew by 20% and corn oil lost 23%. We expect another 3-5% growth in liquid oils in 2011-12 season. Again in year 2011, Turkish fats and oils market size reached 2.066 million tonnes, together with exports. We see this number going up to 2.291 million tonnes in 2011-12 season.

Exports from Turkey to the Middle East, mainly Iraq are at record level at the moment. We expect total Turkish exports of refined packaged oils to reach some 400,000 tonnes for 2011-12 season.


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International Market Developments

China China’s state grain stockpiler China Grain Reserves Corp. or Sinograin, has entered the country's edible oil retail market. Sinograin Oils Co.'s foray into a lucrative and intensely competitive market sets up a contest with giant state-owned domestic rival Cofco Group Corp. and foreign competitors including Singapore's Wilmar International. Sinograin Oils began retail operations in 20,000 supermarkets in eastern and northern China in December, China's state-owned Economic Daily newspaper said. The company aims to sell 200,000 metric tons of edible oil in 2012. The unit's production base is at Zhenjiang cityin Jiangsu province. Within two years, it intends to have completed plants at Tianjin as well as Guangdong and Henan, among others, to reach an annual bottling capacity of 700,000 tons, according to the report. Sinograin subsidiary's move illustrates the allure of a domestic market valued around $83 billion a year in operating income and provides cues as to the ambitions of a company whose parent is better known for administering China's state grain reserves. The Economic Daily report said, "Foreign edible oil companies control more than half of China's edible oil market, presenting challenges for the country's 'strategic security.'" China's Cofco Group Corp. has annual edible oil processing capacity of more than 10 million mt accounts for about 10% of China's edible oil retail market, trailing Singapore's Wilmar International, which has about 50-60% of the market.

Turkish Vegoil Industry Report AgriPro will release “Turkish Vegoil Industry Report” next week. Such a report will be published for the first time since 1997. The 43 page report is an extensive study of statistics, analysis & the overview of Turkish vegoils industry featuring, Turkish fats & oils trade balances, current and future vegoil market size, geographical analysis and strategies of top players in view of ongoing consolidation in industrial fats and liquid oil markets and a full production capacities study by region. The report will be an essential tool for new and existing companies or funds planning investment in the sector and trading companies operating in Turkey as well as an orientation tool for sector newcomers. Details about the report and purchasing conditions can be viewed at our company website http://www.agripro.com.tr

Brazil Brazil, the world's No. 2 soybean grower, is expected to produce 71.75 million metric tons of the crop during its 2011-12 crop year, government agriculture agency Conab said today. Soybean production is expected to fall 4.7% from 2010-11, though the latest estimate reflects a 0.7% increase from Conab's previous forecast, published a month ago. "In December, weather conditions weren't favorable, especially for corn and soy, mainly in states in the southern region," Conab said. Analysts say dry weather caused by the La Nina phenomenon will dent grains production in southern Brazil, though the rest of the country has seen normal rainfall in recent weeks.

India India's edible oil imports will likely rebound this marketing year due to a smaller oilseed crop and rising local consumption, a senior industry executive said today. Imports by India, the world's top buyer of cooking oil, in the year through October 2012 are likely to rise 5% to 8%, Adani Wilmar Ltd. Chief Executive Atul Chaturvedi told Dow Jones Newswires. The country's edible oil purchases fell 5% last marketing year to 8.37 million metric tonnes due to a rise in local output, according to data from the Solvent Extractors Association of India. Higher imports by India may further boost global prices that have been rising for the past few weeks due to crop concerns in major producers such as Malaysia and Argentina. India meets more than half of its annual requirement of 15 million to 16 million tonnes through imports. "Imports will be higher as output of rapeseed crop is expected to be lower due to adverse weather," Chaturvedi said. Trade executives say rapeseed output in 2011-12 could fall to about 6.0 million tonnes from last year's 7.0 million tonnes. India's total oilseed output in the crop year that started July 1, 2011, is likely to fall below the government's target of 33 million tons as farmers have planted more pulses and wheat. India produced a record 31.1 million tonnes of oilseeds in 2010-11.


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Sector Investments American agribusiness giant ADM said it has bought three grain elevators in Slovakia, moving into the country for the first time. ADM said that the silos will enable it to secure additional rapeseed and sunseed, as well as corn and wheat from new supply sources. "The acquisition of these elevators extends ADM's origination network along the Danube River, advancing our strategy to grow our reach in Central and Eastern Europe," said ADM. The three new facilities, located in the south and east of Slovakia, have been purchased from Palma Group a.s. and Polnonakup Hont a.s. They have a combined storage capacity of 149,000 metric tons, as well as train loading capabilities, ADM said. The company operates oilseed processing facilities in the Czech Republic, Germany, Netherlands, Poland, the U.K. and Ukraine.

Another agriculture giant Bunge announced that it has completed the construction of a port terminal in Nikolayev in southern Ukraine. With a storage capacity of 140,000 tonnes, the terminal offers a loading potential of an estimated 4 million tonnes a year.

Our past reports can be viewed at our web site www.agripro.com.tr under “Market Reports” tab.

Price Quotations (US$/TL 1.87) Price quotations as of Tuesday 10th January 2012 are as follows: AgriPro Limited

Import: - Black Sea origin Sunseeds (44% bss) - CIF Marmara - $ 540 - Ukraine origin Rapeseeds (42% bss) - CIF Marmara - $ 595

- US Soybeans - CIF TR - $ 495 - Brazil Soybeans - CIF TR - $ 510

- RBD Palm Oil - CIF TR $ 1,130 - RBD Palm Olein - CIF TR $ 1,140 - RBD Palm Stearin - CIF TR $ 1,030 - Black Sea origin Crude Sunoil - CIF Marmara/Mersin - $ 1.135/$ 1.155 - South America origin Crude Degummed Soyoil - CIF TR - $ 1.235 - USA Crude Degummed Corn Oil - CIF TR $ 1,380

- Black Sea origin 36 protein Sunmeal - CIF Marmara - $ 185

Domestic: - Crude Sunoil - ex-works Thrace - $1,526 - Crude Rape Oil - ex-works Aegean/Çukurova - $ 1,500 - Crude Soyoil - ex-works Aegean/Çukurova - $ 1,170 - Crude Corn Oil - ex-works - Southern Marmara - 3,100 TL - Semi-refined Cotton Oil - ex-works Çukurova - 2,300 TL

- 28 protein Sunmeal - ex-works, Thrace/Agean/Çukurova - 270 TL/310 TL/310 TL - Rapemeal - ex-works Thrace/Agean/Çukurova - $ 2900 - 47 protein Soymeal - ex-works Agean/Çukurova - $ 470 - Cottonmeal - ex-works Aegean/Çukurova - 420 TL

© Copyright 2011 AgriPro Limited This report is personal to the individual recipients. Any reproduction or redistribution of contents without written consent of AgriPro Ltd. is strictly prohibited. Any violation of our copyright will be prosecuted. The information and analyses given in the report are believed to be reliable. However we cannot be held responsible for accuracy of the information in our reports, forecasts and/or price indications and them being taken as basis to any commercial contract. Tel +90 212 236 0345 Fax +90 212 236 0385 email [email protected] web www.agripro.com.tr

prices went up from $1,477/mt to $1,526/mt

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