previewing the fdic quarterly banking profile

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  • 8/8/2019 Previewing the FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile

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    Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Newtown, PA. ValuEnginecovers over 7,000 stocks every day.

    A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's detailed research, stock

    picks, and commentary can be found HERE.

    August 31, 2010 Preview ing t he FDIC Quart er l y Bank ing Prof i le .

    The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury is trading around my quarterly pivot at 2.495. Gold

    remains overbought on its daily chart and is trading between my annual pivot at $1218.7 andmy semiannual risky level at $1260.8. Crude oil remains below my annual pivot at $77.05. Theeuro remains below its 50-day simple moving average at 1.2781. The Dow is still oversold on itsdaily chart with todays value level at 9,788. The FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile for the secondquarter will likely show continued stress relative to commercial real estate loans.

    10-Year Note (2.545) My annual pivots are 2.813 and 2.999 with a weekly pivot at 2.648, and daily,quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 2.488, 2.495 and 2.249 versus last weeks low yield at 2.419.Note that the decline in yield is no longer overdone on the daily chart.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

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    Comex Gold ($1238.7) Semiannual, weekly, quarterly, monthly, and annual value levels are$1218.7, $1211.5, $1140.9, $1133.2 and $1115.2 with a daily pivot at $1240.1, and semiannual risky

    level at $1260.8. Note that gold is still overbought on its daily chart.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Nymex Crude Oil ($74.21) My daily value level is $71.96 with annual, monthly, weekly andsemiannual risky levels at $77.05, $80.02, $81.35 and $83.94. Note that crude oil is no longeroversold on the daily chart profile.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

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    The Euro (1.2661) Daily, quarterly and monthly value levels are 1.2542, 1.2167, 1.1486 and 1.1424with weekly and semiannual risky levels at 1.3170 and 1.4733. Note that the euro is still oversold

    on its daily chart.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Daily Dow: (10,010) Daily and quarterly value levels are 9,788 and 7,812 with my annual pivot at10,379, and monthly, semiannual, weekly and annual risky levels at 10,439, 10,558, 10,904 and11,235. My annual risky level at 11,235 was tested at the April 26thhigh of 11,258.01. Note that

    the daily chart remains oversold with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day simple moving averagesat 10,366, 10,269 and 10,452.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

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    Here are some statistics from the FDIC for the Second Quarter 2010:

    There were 45 bank failures in the second quarter, and we likely ended the quarter with less than

    7,900 FDIC-insured financial institutions. 2504 or 31.7% are thus overexposed to Commercial Real Estate loans. 3939 of 49.9% of all banks have a pipeline thats 80% or more funded.

    Half the community banks in America remain overleveraged to Commercial Real Estate and thepossible losses remain about $1.5 trillion.

    We will publish a new list of the ValuEngine List of Problem Banks next week.

    Assets among banks with a CRE pipeline of 80% or more funded increased to $3.84 trillionincluding $121.3 billion in Construction & Development loans.

    The average pipeline for 3939 banks is 92.0%. Among this list are four big banks that will likelysee waves of write-offs in upcoming quarters.

    JP Morgan Chase (JPM) with $1.72 trillion in assets has a pipeline of 80%. SunTrust Banks (STI) has $160.5 billion in assets with an 83% pipeline. BB&T Corp (BBT) has $149.2 billion in assets with an 84% pipeline. Fifth Third Bank (FITB) has 100.0 billion in assets with an 84% pipeline.

    Thats todays Four in Four. Have a great day.

    Richard SuttmeierChief Market StrategistValuEngine.com(800) 381-5576

    Send your comments and questions to [email protected]. For more information on our productsand services visit www.ValuEngine.com

    As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.comI have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters awell as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the

    ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go HERE to review sample issues and find out more about my research.

    I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.