preslav nakov - the web as a training set part 3
TRANSCRIPT
The Future
2
The Big Dream (once again)
Dave Bowman: “Open the pod bay doors, HAL”
HAL 9000: “I’m sorry Dave. I’m afraid I can’t do that.”
3
Two Important Directions We Touched
•Semantics
•Machine Translation
Critical for the overalladvancement of the field
Practical, within the reachof current technology
4
Two Important Directions We Touched
•Semantics
•Machine Translation
5
Semantics: Revolution is Needed?•If we want the dream come true, we should
- not rely on superficial statistics alone- need to get to the meaning of text
•A revolution in semantics is needed- looking at words is not enough- we need better models for
o multi-word expressions (~70% of terminology)o semantic relations (meaning is in the links!)
•The revolution will be supported by- Web-scale corpora- linguistic knowledge
“Moving Lexical Semanticsfrom Alchemy to Science”
Discussion on [Corpora-List]
• This is what Chomsky has done with syntax.• Should we expect the same for lexical semantics?
6
NAACL’2015: Accept/Reject by Area
SemanticsNLP for Web and Social Media and Social Sciences
Machine TranslationInformation Extraction and Question Answering
Tagging and Chunking and Syntax and ParsingMachine Learning for NLP
Generation and SummarizationLanguage Resources and Evaluation
Text Categorization and Topic ModelsSentiment Analysis and Opinion Mining
Phonology and Morphology and Word SegmentationSpoken Language Processing
Discourse and PragmaticsNLP-enabled Technology
Linguistic and Psycholinguistic Aspects of CLDialogue and Interactive Systems
Information RetrievalLanguage and Vision
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Semantics has emerged from a marginal to a dominant position.
7
Two Important Directions We Have Touched
•Semantics
•Machine Translation
8
Machine Translation: Revolution?•Revolution?
- Two great revolutions so faro1993: statistical word-based translationo2003: statistical phrase-based translation
9
Machine Translation: Revolution?•Revolution?
- Two great revolutions so faro1993: statistical word-based translationo2003: statistical phrase-based translation
- Overdue for the next revolution?o2013: ???
• Syntactic translation?• Semantic translation?
SOURCE TARGET
words words
syntax syntax
semantics semantics
interlingua
phrases phrases
10
Machine Translation: Revolution?•Revolution?
- Two great revolutions so faro1993: statistical word-based translationo2003: statistical phrase-based translation
- Overdue for the next revolution?o2014: revolution in progress?
Deep neural networks – the new revolution:• Speech recognition• Machine translation• Semantics
BUT can they:- scale to the Web?- model linguistic structure- handle MWEs- use linguistic knowledge
11
The Future?
Three words: Web, semantics, linguistics
and deep neural networks?
12
The Futurev. 2.0
13
Human or Computer?
14
Human or Computer?
15
Human or Computer?
16
Human or Computer?
17
Human or Computer?
18
Human or Computer?
19
Human or Computer?
20
Human or Computer?
21
Human or Computer?
22
Human or Computer?
23
Human or Computer?
24
Human or Computer?
25
Human or Computer?
26
Human or Computer?
27
Human or Computer?
28
Human or Computer?
29
The Future is Now?•Books
- Algorithm by Philip Parker, Inseado 1,000,000+ books generatedo 100,000+ being sold at Amazon
•Robo journalism- tons of articles generated today- by 2025, can cover 90%
•What is next- Fake reviews?- Computers mining text written by other computers?- From Computational to Computer Linguistics?- …
30
The Futurev. 3.0
31
Hiroshima & Nagasaki•26/07/1945: Potsdam declaration was an ultimatum to Japan: capitulate or face “prompt and utter destruction”
•Japan’s prime minister Kantaro Suzuki at a press-conference: “No comment. We keep discussing.”
•He used the word mokusatsu, which can mean (a) no comment, or (b) we reject.
•10 days later…
32
The Future?Will the next nuclear war start because of a computer translation?
33
Moore’s Law: in 10 years…
Can NNs scale?
34
In 17 years: More Robots than Humans!
35
Maybe you do not believe it...
36
37
Artificial Intelligence as a Threat
“The development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race.”
Stephen Hawking
“I am in the camp that is concerned about super intelligence. ...and don't understand why some people are not concerned..”
Bill Gates
“I think we should be very careful about artificial intelligence. If I had to guess at what our biggest existential threat is, it’s probably that.”
Elon Musk (donated $10 million to Future of Life Institute)
38
The Future: SkyNet?
39
The Future?
40
The Future?
41