presidents address 2006 saxby slides
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arm processTRANSCRIPT
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Chips With Everything
A personal perspective for discussion
IET Presidential AddressSavoy Place, 5 Oct 06
Sir Robin SaxbyEmeritus Chairman ARM Holdings plc
Visiting Professor University of Liverpool
Slides available at www.theiet.org
Chips With Everything
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FlowIET HistoryThe Chip IndustryARM case study
Technical & commercial leadership, globalisation, wealth creation, personal satisfaction, influence from UK foundationPeople stories as exemplars for younger engineers
Challenges & lessons from aboveTechnology drivers
Convergence of hardware and software + technology / design / cost challenges
2020 Vision biotech / microtech convergence era
IET Vision / Goals / ChallengesReferencesConclusions
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IET History1818 Civil Engineers were first
aspiring British students saw Civil Engineering as utopia for fun & wealth creation- waterfront in Liverpool, Boston and Shanghai
1847 Mechanicals - Birmingham base 1871 Society of Telegraph Engineers
Electricity / Power, Radio, Electronics, Computing, Bio, Nano …Offer B Eng or B Sc equivalent before universities
Oxbridge slow to adopt engineeringProfessionalism and professional development
Strong publishing revenue from 60’sExperts influencing government, informing the publicPersonalities, difference of opinion normalMergers - latest one IIE
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Microelectronics
SEA
Cirrus Logic
SEMATECH
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Chip Industry FoundationsTechnology Development
70s - Waves of New Products
Digital Signal Processors DRAM EPROMMicroprocessors
Dec 1947-Bell Labs 1958 –TI 1967 – Fairchild
Transistor IC Standard MOS
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Consequences of Moore’s Law
ITRS’99
Tran
sist
ors/
Chi
p (M
)
Tran
sist
or/P
M (K
)
1BTr
100Mtr
1Mt
1,800py 8,500py
100py
“Productivity Gap”
“Verification Gap”
777
Semiconductor Market SpecializationSeveral waves of semiconductor technology
Now in the middle of CMOSCMOS has enabled MSI → LSI → VLSI → SOC
Technical progress brings a basis for industry evolutionMiniaturization, reductions in costs, increases in complexity
Vertical integration gives way to horizontal specialization
1970’s
VerticalSuppliers
FullyVerticallyIntegrated
1980’s
ASICVendors
SystemManufacturer
ASICVendor
1990’s
FablessSemis
Design &Distribution
Manufacturing
EDA
Today
IP DrivenDesignDesign
EDA
IP
Manufacturing
Fab Equipment
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System Chip MethodologyThe design task is so large that it is not possible to design the whole chip oneself …
Components, from independent suppliers are integrated to produce the so-called System-On-Chip.
The ARM RISC Processor has become a Keystone SoC Component; Fundamental tointerfacing the Hardware and Software aspects of this Digital World
1998Mobile-Phone Processor.
80mm2, 0.6μm
ARM7TDMI
OAK DSP
AM
BA
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PC approach - Scaling for Performance
1982 - Intel 80286134 thousand transistors12MHz; 68.7 mm2
80s & 90s industry growth and scaling in computing power
1985 - Intel 80386275 thousand transistors33MHz; 104 mm2
1989 - Intel 803861.2 million transistors50MHz; 163 mm2
1993 - Intel Pentium3.1 million transistors66MHz; 264 mm2
1997 - Intel PentiumII7.5 million transistors300MHz; 209 mm2
1999 - Intel PentiumIII28 million transistors733MHz; 140 mm2
2000 - Intel Pentium442 million transistors1.5GHz; 224 mm2
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Scaling for Performance Consequence
1982 - Intel 80286134 thousand transistors12MHz; 68.7 mm2
1985 - Intel 80386275 thousand transistors33MHz ; 104 mm2
1989 - Intel 803861.2 million transistors50MHz; 163 mm2
1993 - Intel Pentium3.1 million transistors66MHz; 264 mm2
1997 - Intel PentiumII7.5 million transistors300MHz; 209 mm2
1999 - Intel PentiumIII28 million transistors733MHz; 140 mm2
2000 - Intel Pentium442 million transistors1.5GHz; 224 mm2
Performance at expense of power
and thermal challenges
Move to multi-processor
80s & 90s industry growth and scaling in computing power
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DEMAND
INVESTMENT COST REDUCTION
The Virtuous Circle
Source: “The New Paradigm” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 1999 Report and 2002 Actuals
1970 1980 1990 2002Cost of 1MHz $7,600.82 $103.40 $25.47 $0.17Cost of 1 megabit storage $5,256.90 $614.40 $7.85 $0.33Cost of sending 1 trillion bits $150,000.00 $129,166.67 $90.42 $0.12
Financial Benefit of Scaling
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ARM From Humble Beginnings£1.5M cash from Apple£250K cash from VLSI£1.5M of IP & 12 engineers from AcornProof of concept Acorn ArchimedesNo patents, no independent customers, product not ready for mass marketA barn, some energy, belief, experience
1 Partner VLSI Technology1 OS Acorn RISCOSNo tools
“We’re going to be the global standard”
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Where are the Founders Now?Robin Saxby - Founding CEO - President IET
Jamie Urquhart - Head VLSI design - Venture Capital Partner / NED
Mike Muller - Leading systems architect - ARM CTO & Director
Tudor Brown - Lead Video & Memory Designer - ARM COO & Director
Lee Smith - Lead Software Tools - ARM Fellow
John Biggs - VLSI Designer - ARM EDA R & D
Harry Oldham - Senior VLSI Designer - ARM Fellow VLSI Design Mgr
Dave Howard - VLSI Designer - ARM Consultant Engineer VLSI Design
Pete Harrod - Floating point guru - ARM Group Leader Tech & PeopleIET Branch Chair
Harry Meekings - C Compiler Guru - Retired
Al Thomas - Architecture Guru - Died
Andy Merritt - Software Tools Engineer - Voluntary worker
David Seal - Algorithm Designer - ARM Senior Algorithm Designer
1990 2006
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Volume drives success: 4.5Bn Units by 2010
050
100150200250300350400450500550600
Q49
9
Q20
0
Q40
0
Q20
1
Q40
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Q20
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Q40
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Q20
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Q40
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2006
2Bn / year
2010
4.5Bn / year69 partners shipping (out of 184) at end H2 06
100’sM
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Scaling the ARM way
0
0.1
1
10
100mm2
20061988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 20041986
ARM1:3um; 50 mm2;120mW at 6MHz
ARM6: 1.2um; 15MHz
0.35um; 47MHz0.25um; 63MHz
180nm; 98MHz130nm; 125MHz
90nm; 219MHz
ARM7DM: 0.8um; 25MHz
ARM7TDMI ®: 0.6um; 33MHz
ARM7TDMI®:65nm; 0.1 mm2;~9mW at 350MHz
800 x power efficiency
500 x area efficiency
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But ARM has done performance too
1985 – ARM150mm2;4MHz; 3um
The 80s and 90s:
1988 – ARM312MHz; 1.2um
1999 – ARM920T140MHz; 0.25um
1994 – ARM71033MHz; 0.6um
2001 – ARM926EJ-S200MHz; 180nm200 DMIPS
2004 – ARM1176JZ-S400MHz; 130nm480 DMIPS
2005 – ARM MPCore (2 way)620MHz; 90nm1,488 DMIPS
2006 – ARM Cortex A81GHz; 65nm2,000 DMIPS
The new millennium:600x
Performance4.5mm2 core
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Community is as important as technologyARM Developers Conf., Santa Clara
2200+ attendees90 exhibitors & sponsors130+ papers & panel sessions
Success through broadest
Partner Support!
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Increasing Strategic Value
memorymemory
SoCSoC
ProcessorsSystem Level IP:Data EnginesFabric3D graphics
Physical IP
Software IP
Development Tools
Connected Community
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Founded Nov 1990Profitable and cash generative since 93Public April 98 NASDAQ and LSEMany engineers now financially secure Market cap £1.5Bapprox 1500 people across the globe100,000+ engineers working on ARM technology25% sales on R & DGlobal Semiconductor IP leader by 2.5X nearest competitorTiger best product awardShareholder and Investor AwardsEastern England “Employee of the year”
ARM Timeline
202020
MethodologyStrategy – 5 year horizonOperational Plan – 1 year horizonTactical Plan – 2-3 year horizonMonthly measurement / reportingMean & lean - Tight cost controlGet leads globally – Hire Presidents / Sales leaders globally – Then global design centresUSA, Europe, Japan, Other Asia in parallel – Then China / IndiaIdentify value points for long-term growthAdd high quality people to founding teamDevelop people potential – Long term planning – Fast track, technical ladderAs the company matures better systems and methods to manage complexity whilst keeping pace
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Biggest ARM ChallengesGet out, get paid & get a credit line“Joint ventures don’t work”Time to close first deals-potential cash crunchConflicts of interest with founding companiesTime and effort to close first dealsPartnership managementShareholder fall-out prior to IPOContinually evolving employee rolesManaging, internal, external, customer expectationsShareholder expectation vs “Creative Destruction” -AcquisitionGlobal dynamic of Governance standardsShare price volatility
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University Business CollaborationQuality and relevance of graduates
Technical competence versus business capabilityBusiness know-how versus entrepreneurial flair
Buying it in versus breeding your ownImportant aspect is “cultural fit”
Beware the frustrated academic aspiring business-manBe realistic about “time to money”Business is more customer pull than technology pushUniversity, Business & Government worlds exist inparallel universes on different time-lines
“IET Axis – Government / Academia / Industry – Professionalism”
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Learning points Strong competent teams can deliver amazing results
The team is only as good as its weakest link –consultants help
Vision, passion and hard work are key
Be realistic / pragmatic / honest re competition / listenDifferent deliverables to different time – lines – plan, plan – adjust, iterateAnticipate and satisfy explicit needs of real customers –Develop the market as well as the technologyGood salesmanship and communication are key skills neededQuality, professionalism, humour and complete
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Technology driver - Content deliveryFastest concert recording to digital download release
Time between recording of a live concert performance and its release for digital download sale:
44 minutes and 39 seconds‘Sgt Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band’ by Sir Paul McCartney and U2 Universal Music Group International for Live 8 (July 2, 2005)
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Technology driver - MiniaturisationDigitisation allows increased miniaturisation, performance and convenience
The best of analogue…
… has become smaller and
better
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Technology driver - More software
High-performance devices run large amounts of complex software All needs to be developed and integrated into final device
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Technology driver - Embedded intelligence
1913 Model T FordNo electronics
Circa 1980 BMW 733iIntroduction of ABS
2005 BMW 7 SeriesiDrive Control system
2015 - Pervasive but hidden electronics
2006 Chrysler announce40% of models will offer
iPod integration
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Technology driver - Changing lifestyles
Uni FormatAnalogue
Broadcast deliveryScattergun advertisingIn shop retail purchase
Media plays on any device
Early Multi FormatVoiceRingtonesPhotosMusicTV True Multi Format
All digitalContent downloadedTime shift broadcast
Unlimited storageDelivery choices
Targeted advertising
1880 1900 1926 1990 2000 2010
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Future Outlook - Healthcare & fitness
Emergence and growth of telemedicineRemoves distance between provider and patientNeed for connectivity increases hardwareand software integration challenges
Largest opportunity to add valueHealthcare systems under extreme stress despite $3T global spend
Improvements needed: In efficiency, reliability, privacy, quality of life
Product opportunities: Disease prevention, monitoring, therapy, services, IT
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2020: On the body
Mini LoggerTemp monitor
Chilli Heated Clothing
Active Joint Brace wins MIT $50K Cochlear Ear Replacement Eye
Active Clothing
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2020: Products for the InfirmedBiometrics - time to visit the doctor again
Implanted automatic drug delivery
Controls Parkinson’sDisease
Heart monitoring
MedtronicReplacement Pancreas
Insulin Delivery
3D freescan image
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2020: Products for KidsActive clothing / skin? that changes colour / tone for mood?
Allow online searching by thought
Holographic projection conference calling with friends
DNA Screen
On offer in a Cambridge
shop
“In his latest column for Business 2.0, "Wearable Tech," Rafe Needleman tells us that clothes that can change colors electronically are soon coming to our closets.”
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2020: Products for KidsFive-sense Virtual Reality gaming and experiences
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Ultimate Product?Heated Seat
2 Heated Water Bidet StreamsElectronically Temperature Controlled
Electronic Water Pressure ControlAutomatic Shut-off
Electronic BidetThe World’s Best
Toilet Seat!
Keizo Mura Skiing on his 100th BirthdaySalt Lake City
Home medical advisor,Speech, patient history,Take pills with patient
monitoring
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ConclusionSuccessful tech industry is built on solid foundations and has exciting times aheadAlways new challenges to be overcomeOld methods do not scaleAccelerated move to global open standards,collaboration & partnershipImproving system design methods to enable management of increased complexitySoftware becomes an ever more critical part of the solutionSome new winnersOnly the innovative survive
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An IET VisionAn Institution for the 21st Century
Practise professionalism everywhereKnowledge Networks – Web & real – Collaboration & partnershipIET.tv, Flipside, INSPEC and the web as resources for great stuff
Inform the public – Help raise the SET profile Inspire and encourage the young to take up SET careersEnable member career development and professionalism
Facilities – Services, web, meeting, coffee, real networkingBenevolent Fund
Greater global relevancePartnership for global reach and relevance
Vision in detail for local deliveryUse technology for innovative delivery & communication to world audience
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Development of unified visionStrategy, BoT, Council, Presidential teamwork and successionPartnership - other Institutions, governments, industry, academiaQuality planLead by example, development of strategy, team-work -calendarGreater branch activity with focused appeal and targeting - includes visits, technician development Web & IET.tv DevelopmentUnderpinned by Publishing and Events
- includes long term vision of information sourcing
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ReferencesA History of The institution of Electrical Engineers 1871-1981 – WJ ReaderThe Victorian Internet & The Mechanical Turk – Tom StandageMicrosoft Secrets –Michael A Cusumano & Richard W SelbyTotal Global Strategy – George S YipThe Age of Spiritual Machines – Ray KurzweilThe Private Life of The Brain – Susan GreenfieldCompeting For The Future – Gary Hamel & CK PrahaladCreative Destruction – Richard Foster & Sarah KaplanThe World Is Flat – Thomas L FriedmanITRS Roadmap for Semiconductors
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Q & A
www.theiet.org