Presidential Primary System…and its problems

Basics of Primaries

• Goal of presidential primaries– Win your party’s nomination• Do so by getting most DELEGATES• Get delegates by winning primaries

• Each state holds primary for D and R party– Can only vote in one

• Types of primaries– Caucus (example)– Direct Primary• Open Primary• Closed Primary

People that cast votes at the party’s convention, which is where the nomination becomes official

Basics of Primaries

• Types of Delegates awarded– Pledged Delegates– Superdelegates (Democratic

thing)• Way these people can impact

an election

• Way delegates are awarded– Winner-take-all (mostly on

Republican side)– Proportional

Causes Republican primaries to be over much sooner, usually

Important people within the party. Senators, governors, party officials, can vote for whoever they want

Primary Schedule• Goal of primaries is to win MOST delegates;

get party’s nomination– Amount of delegates awarded in each state is

based roughly on state’s population• Assume candidates would focus money and attention

where?

– Actually states that go FIRST that have most influence• First 3 – 5 states that vote almost always decide the

nominees• Why? The winner of these states gets

– Money (much easier to raise money after a win)– Media (coverage increases; crowned favorite)– Momentum (early victories boost poll numbers in upcoming

primaries)

Primary Schedule• Who gets to first?– Iowa

• Iowa caucus always the first contest• Gives state tone of undue influence, money, attention• Only time the country looks to Iowa for major decision

– New Hampshire (first primary)• Week after Iowa caucus• Must win if do poorly in Iowa

– South Carolina• Again small state

• Major controversy in last election was states trying to move date of their primaries up– Reasons for move

• To gain influence on election• Elections bring money into the state

Primary Schedule• Super Tuesday (1st Tuesday in March)• Approx. 20 states hold primaries on same day• Done in hopes of offsetting influence of early states• TN included• Will decide nominee is still up in the air

Primary Schedule• How to increase state’s influence in primaries– Influence = money spent in your state– FRONTLOADING: moving the date of primary up close

to January to gain influence • Made presidential elections last almost 18 months

• Problems with system– Deciding who goes first

• Why Iowa, NH– Rural, white states that don’t reflect rest of country

– Limited # states decide nominees– Big states shut out of primaries– Frontloading has made election drag on forever

Alternatives to System• National Primary Day– Everyone votes same day

• Eliminates small, first state bias• Cost would prevent all but few candidates from competing• Nobody would visit small states

• Rotating regional primary– Vote in large regional blocks

• Still problem of going first

• California Plan– Start small move up to large states in 10 steps– Problems: travel, no guarantee of eliminating first

primary bias

The General Election• Three things to remember…– Length• No country has longer elections, 20 months• Feels even longer with 24-hour news

– Expense• http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/campaign-finance

• $2 billion in last election• Cost skyrocketed after 2000

–Campaign never ends• President always campaigning• Always looking for next candidate

The Electoral College• US never had popular vote to decide president

(most votes wins)• Always had a system where citizens vote for

people who will then elect president– Basic idea behind ELECTORAL COLLEGE

People do not cast votes DIRECTLY for president. Votes go toward election of ELECTORAL COLLEGE voters who then cast votes for president

Why Have the Electoral College?• Originally safeguard

put in the Constitution– Lots of examples in

Const.– Only voted for 1/2 of

1/3 of the Fed. Gov. • Fear of the public

electing someone unfit

• Elite group could step in, choose president

The Electoral College• How the electoral college works– Each state gets set number of Electoral College votes– Get number by adding up # people a state has in

Congress • Each has 2 senators and ____ representatives• Ex. TN: 9 reps, 2 sen = 11 EC votes

– EC votes are awarded winner-take-all– Need 270 to win • If neither get 270 HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES decides• Rare but has happened• Means partisan vote decides election

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/main

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/president/

Does the Electoral College matter?• NO– Doesn’t decide the election– EC voters ALWAYS vote state’s choice– Popular vote and EC vote matched all

but five times• YES– Changes the way candidates campaign– Winner-take-all means candidates

avoid blowout states– Only focus on closely divided states

Sort of…

Why keep outdated system?• Electoral college = the human appendix• Require an enormous effort to change

Constitution and remove• Not every state would support it– Big players in recent elections

• Hasn’t caused any major problems• Will take major election incident to bring

change

Strategy in General Election– Size of state does NOT guarantee influence• NY = big and unimportant• FLA = big and important

–Combination of size and being EVENLY divided between Republicans and Dems means INFLUENCEDefinition of Swing State

Swing States• a.k.a. Battleground states• Focus of campaign attention• Ohio and Florida big two• Never spend time and money in places know they

will win or lose– http

://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/track-presidential-campaign-ads-2012/

– http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics/2012/11/01/163632378/a-campaign-map-morphed-by-money

• IMPORTANCE: handful of states decide the fate of elections, NOT entire nation

Two theories on running campaign

• Traditional–Focus on undecided voters•most not married to political party• Party faithful vote for you no matter what• Believe these voters turned off by negative ads,

extreme views•moderate message that appeals to most

people. Opposite of primary campaign where only appeal to party faithful

Two theories on running campaign• Build up the party base– Bush strategy – Based on belief only small

number of undecided voters• These people will split 50/50

no matter what you say

– Focus on firing up base of party; get as many of them to polls as possible

Electoral College

• Problems with EC– Can get the most votes and lose• Popular vote and EC don’t always line up

– Winner-take-all• Even if have strong support in state can lose by 1 vote have

nothing to show for it

– No room for 3rd parties• b/c of Winner-Take-All almost impossible for 3rd party

candidate to get EC votes

– Miss. Democrats and Vermont Republicans• Live in state dominated by one party and you’re the opposite

party your vote has no impact

– Candidates focus almost exclusively on swing state

2012

2008

Maps of last 3 elections

2004

Write your thoughts

Party advantage in Electoral College• Late 80s – till about 2000 GOP had an

advantage in the Electoral college numbers– Had more votes solidly in its corner– Needed fewer swing states

• Change mid-2000s– Democrats begin w/242 solid votes– GOP starts w/ roughly 190-200 votes

• What it means

Recent trends in elections• The problem of

demographics for GOP• The Hispanic Vote• GOP efforts to court

Hispanic voters

The trouble of demographics for GOP• Population of predominately GOP voters shrinking

(older, white, male, middle/upper income)• Population of likely Democratic voters increasing

(Hispanic vote, under 30)• Recent Trend– GOP candidates doing worse and worse with Hispanic

voters – Bush got 45%– Romney got 25%

• Future problems– Red states turning into swing states– http://www.politico. 3081.htmlcom/news/stories/1012/8

Demographics & GOP cont…• Role of Hispanic vote in 2012– http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/09/politics/latino-v

ote-key-election

– http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-11-07/politics/35505702_1_hispanic-voters-latino-votes-latino-decisions

– http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/11/14/an-awakened-giant-the-hispanic-electorate-is-likely-to-double-by-2030/

Solutions for GOP• Get Hispanics to vote for you– Focus on social issues– Changes in immigration policy• Already happened• Possible backlash from party’s base

• Change the rules– Move to proportional awarding of Electoral College

votes– http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/2

5/electoral-college-changes-would-pose-danger-for-democrats/

Money and Elections• Began to see campaign spending laws passed

in the early 1900s• KEY POINT: Controlling 3 key groups– Super wealthy– Corporations– Labor Unions

Money and Elections• Two separate types of money used to fund

elections– Hard Money• Money goes directly to candidate• Only individuals can contribute to campaigns• $2,300 max per election• Bundling: way for wealthy donors and groups to get around

$2,300 limit– One person gets bunch of people to pool donations; then

presented to candidate in lump sum

– Soft Money• Money that does NOT got directly to campaign; instead

used by people outside campaign to lobby for candidate• Used to pay for negative ads about opponent or to support

certain view on one issue

Soft-Money Groups • Numerous types of soft-money groups• 3 things that separate the groups– How much money can they raise?– Can they give directly to candidates– What kind of ads can they runs?

Examples of Soft-Money Groups• Political Action Committees (PACs)– Been around since 1970s– $5,000 DIRECTLY to candidate– $15,000 to political parties– Two types of PACs• Those attached to a business, industry, labor unions, etc.• Those push one idea or issue

• Traditional PACs’ role in elections has diminished w/ creation of– 527 Groups– Super PACs

Examples of Soft-Money Groups• 527 Groups– Can raise unlimited amount of money– HOWEVER: don’t openly campaign for a candidate– Issue advocates but REALITY is used to attack

candidate don’t support– Swift Boat Veterans for Truth

• ‘Super PACs’– Started in the 2010 election– Based on Citizens United v. Fed. Election Comm. Case– Groups w/out any limits• Can raise infinite amount of $ • Accept from any group or individual• Can DIRECTLY advocate for a candidate

Study Guide• Basics of how EC works• Where candidates focus time & $• Why we have EC and why we keep it?• Problems w/EC• Where each party does well (Red/Blue)• Role of Hispanic vote in 2012• Ways money can be given to campaigns• What separates the soft-money groups• VOCABULARY: EC, 270, House of Rep, swing states,

Ohio and Florida, popular vote, Red and Blue States, Hispanic vote, proportional awarding, hard and soft money, PACs, 527s, Super PACs