president obama transition briefing...
TRANSCRIPT
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President-Elect Obama Transition Team
Wireless Industry Briefing
December 9, 2008
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2
A Wireless Industry Snapshot
• At midyear 2008, more than 150 wireless companies served more than 262 million subscribers in the U.S., a figure that grew almost 20 million between June 2007 and June 2008.
• Wireless licensees together invested an average of $24.5 billion a year in their networks from 2001 to 2006. In 2007, they reported investing more than $21 billion in their operational networks (not including investments in pre-operational 3G and 4G systems).
• Wireless providers are constantly expanding and upgrading their networks, and over the past several years have deployed high-speed networks to reach 92 percent of the American people.
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203,600
500,000
883,778
1,608,697
2,691,793
4,368,686
6,380,053
8,892,535
13,067,318
19,283,306
28,154,414
38,195,466
48,705,553
60,831,431
76,284,753
97,035,925
118,397,734
134,561,370
148,065,824
169,467,393
194,479,364
219,652,457
243,428,202
262,720,165
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
Jun-85
Jun-86
Jun-87
Jun-88
Jun-89
Jun-90
Jun-91
Jun-92
Jun-93
Jun-94
Jun-95
Jun-96
Jun-97
Jun-98
Jun-99
Jun-00
Jun-01
Jun-02
Jun-03
Jun-04
Jun-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08As of June 2008, There Were More Than 262 Million Wireless Subscribers in the U.S.
Source: CTIA Semi-Annual Survey
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4
1H 2008 Wireless Consumers Used >1.1 Trillion Minutes - Annually Consumers Use >2.1 Trillion Minutes
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Jun-91
Jun-92
Jun-93
Jun-94
Jun-95
Jun-96
Jun-97
Jun-98
Jun-99
Jun-00
Jun-01
Jun-02
Jun-03
Jun-04
Jun-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Bill
ions
Source: CTIA Semi-Annual Survey
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5
599
1,194
1,732
2,789
3,577
4,768
6,685
8,901
11,551
14,740
19,844
24,802
38,650
57,674
74,157
95,733
114,059
131,350
147,719
174,368
197,576
210,360
220,472
178,025
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
175,000
200,000
225,000
250,000
Jun-85
Jun-86
Jun-87
Jun-88
Jun-89
Jun-90
Jun-91
Jun-92
Jun-93
Jun-94
Jun-95
Jun-96
Jun-97
Jun-98
Jun-99
Jun-00
Jun-01
Jun-02
Jun-03
Jun-04
Jun-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Source: CTIA Semi-Annual Survey
Wireless Coverage and Service Depend on Cell Sites
Cell Sites in Service are Up 4.8 Percent Year-over-Year
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6
Deployment Doesn’t Always Happen on Time – or Where It is Needed
• The ability to deploy wireless broadband systems and expand wireless service depends on the availability of sites for the construction and placement of towers and transmitters.
• CTIA has filed a petition with the FCC, asking the FCC to clarify the time period in which a state or local zoning authority must take action on a wireless facility siting request.
• Of 3,300 tower and antenna applications pending in the Spring of 2008 for 7 wireless carriers, 760 were pending for more than one year, and 180 were pending for more than three years. 135 of the 180 applications pending for more than three years are collocation applications, where towers already have been approved.
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7Direct Employment Exceeds 267,000 at Mid-Year
1,697
3,556
5,656
9,154
13,719
18,973
25,545
30,595
36,501
45,622
60,689
73,365
97,039
113,111
141,929
159,645
212,186
225,162
238,236
257,401
267,855
186,956
186,317
187,169
0
30,000
60,000
90,000
120,000
150,000
180,000
210,000
240,000
270,000
300,000
Jun-85
Jun-86
Jun-87
Jun-88
Jun-89
Jun-90
Jun-91
Jun-92
Jun-93
Jun-94
Jun-95
Jun-96
Jun-97
Jun-98
Jun-99
Jun-00
Jun-01
Jun-02
Jun-03
Jun-04
Jun-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Wireless Carrier Employees Work to Deliver More Service
Source: CTIA Semi-Annual Survey
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8
$24,028$23,033
$20,989
$23,998
$27,337 $27,969
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
in M
illio
nsAs Wireless Telecommunications Carriers Invest $24.5 Billion Annually in Structures and Equipment
Source: U.S. Census “Annual Census of Expenditures”
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9
Wireless-Related Patents in the US, 1993-2008 - Licensed CMRS and Other Wireless Patents
471641
965 986
1,777
2,184
2,583 2,7113,051
3,337
6,302 6,397 6,505
14 35 36 41 102403
685
1,544
9851,304
2,272
4,220 4,040
38360 214
2,094 2,642
0 2 4 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 63 248500
3
2,6622,552
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Ann
ual W
irele
ss P
aten
ts (U
.S.)
Cellular / Mobile Radio Telephony-related patents WiFi-related patents Bluetooth-related patents
And Thousands of Wireless Patents Continue to Be Issued Every Year
Source: U.S. Patent Office Database
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0.056 0.144 0.144 0.384 0.768 1.5 1.5 2 2 3 3 3.6 5
1520 20
30
100
50
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
Dial-up (LECs)1X RTT (Cellular South, Leap W
ireless, U.S. Cellular, etc .)
GPRS (AT&T Mobility, T-Mobile USA, etc.)
EDGE (AT&T Mobility, T-Mobile USA, etc.)
ADSL (LECs)ADSL (LECs)Fixed Wireless (Clearwire, etc.)
EVDO (ACS, Alltel, Cellular South, Leap, Sprint, U.S. Cellular, Veriz..
UMTS / WCDMA (AT&T Mobility, T-Mobile USA)
ADSL (LECs)EVDO Rev. A (ACS, Al ltel, Cellular South, Sprint, Verizon W
ireless)
HSDPA (AT&T Mobili ty, T-Mobile USA*)
FiOS (Verizon)FiOS (Verizon)
WiFi (AT&T, T-Mobile USA, Municipalities, etc.)
HSPA (AT&T Mobil ity*)
Cable ModemFiOS (Verizon)WiMax (Clearwire*)
LTE (AT&T Mobility, Verizon Wireless*)
Dial-Up and 2.5G Equivalent
3G Equivalent
4G
Maximum Theoretical Download Speeds RiseM
egab
its p
er S
econ
d
•In deployment / development. Speeds dependent on a variety of factors including availability of spectrum and antenna sites.
Sources: Webopedia, bandwidthplace.com, PC Magazine, service providers, ISPs, Phonescoop.com, etc.
FiOS / fiber
Landline
Cable
Mobile Wireless
Fixed Wireless
WiFi
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As Does 3G Wireless Subscribership in the U.S.
0
15
30
45
60
75
Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08
3G S
ubsc
riber
s (in
Mill
ions
)
Source: comScore M:Metrics
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120 MHz233 MHz358 MHz205 MHz311.4 MHz
374.9 MHz
352.8 MHz305 MHz347 MHz354
MHz*Spectrum Assigned
for Commercial Wireless Use
612,500193,133143,016100,487289,338147,772210,884339,016310,374742,147
Efficient Use of Spectrum --
Subscribers Served per MHz of Spectrum
Allocated
$0.09$0.11$0.24$0.11$0.18$0.17$0.16$0.21$0.25$0.05Average Revenue per Minute – A Measure of the Effective Price per Voice Minute**
187320164446138249190104137848Average Consumers’Minutes of Use per
Month**
73.2m45.0m51.2m20.6m90.1m55.4m74.4m103.4m107.7m262.7mSubscribers**
MexicoS. KoreaSpainCanadaItalyFranceU.K.GermanyJapanUSA
*Figure includes AWS-1 and 700 MHz spectrum not yet in use.
** Glen Campbell, et al., “Global Wireless Matrix 2Q08,” Merrill Lynch, Sept. 25, 2008, at Table 1.
How the U.S. Stacks Up Against Other Countries
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0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Norw
ay
New
Zealand
Sw
itzerland
Netherlands
Portugal
Japan
Ireland
Belgium
Finland
Hong Kong
Singapore
Spain
France
Greece
Sweden
Denm
ark
Austria
Australia
Canada
Italy
Germ
any
UK United S
tates
Herfi
ndah
l-Hir
schm
an In
dex
The Licensed Wireless Industry is Less Concentrated in the U.S. Than in Other Countries
Source: Merrill Lynch Global Wireless Matrix, 2Q 2008
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14
U.S. Consumers Use More Wireless Minutes, at a Lower Effective Rate, Than Consumers in Other Countries
Source: Merrill Lynch Global Wireless Matrix, 2Q 2008
320
104137
190
848
313
11¢ 12¢16¢
25¢ 21¢
5¢ Average Revenue per Minute
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The U.S. Makes More Efficient Use of Commercial Mobile Spectrum Than Other Countries
Source: CTIA Research, Merrill Lynch Global Wireless Matrix, 2Q 2008
742
193
101
310339
211
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More Commercial Mobile Spectrum is in the Pipeline in Other Countries
• After the 40 MHz of AWS-2 and AWS-3 spectrum, there is no additional licensed spectrum being actively considered for licensed mobile wireless broadband in the U.S.
By contrast:
• France will add 72 MHz to its existing commercial mobile spectrum.
• Germany has identified 270 MHz of spectrum in the 1.8, GHz, 2.0 GHz and 2.6 GHz bands for wireless network access.
• The UK has indicated it will allocate 400 MHz of spectrum to augment its existing commercial mobile spectrum.
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Unlicensed Spectrum Below 6 GHz
650
539
244209
184
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
U.S. Europe Japan China South Korea
MH
zThe U.S. Already Has More Unlicensed Spectrum Than Other Countries
*U.S. figure does not include “white spaces” spectrumSource: CTIA Research
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Multiple Carriers Have Reported Network Upgrades in the Past Year
• Nov. 29, 2007 – “Verizon Selects LTE As 4G Wireless Broadband Direction,” Press Release.
• Feb. 6, 2008 – “AT&T Plans Major Expansion of 3G Wireless Broadband Service in 2008,”Press Release noting AT&T’s move to HSPA+ and LTE for 4G broadband services.
• Feb. 8, 2008 – “Stelera Wireless Launches Inaugural Wireless Network,” Press Release announcing rural wireless broadband service on AWS-1 spectrum.
• Aug. 5, 2008 – Leap Wireless 2Q08 Earnings Conference Call presentation notes markets with ~8 million “Advanced Wireless Service” (AWS) Pops have been launched as of 2Q 2008.
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Multiple Carriers Have Reported Network Upgrades in 2008
• Sept. 18, 2008 – “T-Mobile USA Announces Commercial 3G Network Availability in 21 Markets By Mid-October,” Press Release announcing UMTS/HSDPA high-speed data network is currently available across 13 major metropolitan markets: Austin, Baltimore, Boston, Dallas, Houston, Las Vegas, Miami, Minneapolis, New York (including northern New Jersey and Long Island), Phoenix, Portland, San Antonio and San Diego. The company plans to expand its service by mid-October to additional markets, including Atlanta, Chicago, Los Angeles, Orlando, Philadelphia, Sacramento, San Francisco and Seattle. An additional six markets — Birmingham, Denver, Detroit, Kansas City, Memphis and Tampa — are expected to have the network available before the end of the year, increasing the number of markets with T-Mobile’s 3G network to 27 markets).
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Multiple Carriers Have Reported Network Upgrades in 2008
• Sept. 29, 2008 – “XOHM WiMAX Broadband Service Debuts in Baltimore, New 4G wireless era dawns as unique business model revolutionizes mobile Internet access,”Sprint Press Release announcing launch of new high-speed 4G broadband network in Baltimore, with other markets to follow.
• Oct. 17, 2008 – “T-Mobile USA Further Expands Commercial 3G Network Availability in2008; Washington, D.C., and Surrounding Areas to Launch in November; More than 120 Major Cities with T-Mobile 3G Coverage by End of Year,” Press Release.
• Oct. 28, 2008 – “U.S. Cellular Launches Mobile Broadband,” Press Release announcing EVDO service “launched in Chicago, Rockford, Ill., northwestern Indiana, Tulsa, Okla., Des Moines, Iowa and southern Wisconsin” with more markets to follow in 2009.
• Nov. 4, 2008 – nTelos has upgraded 46% of its network to EVDO Rev. A, projects upgrading 70% of cell sites by year-end 2008. “Press Release announcing NTELOS
Holdings Corp. Third Quarter 2008 Operating Results.
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More is Possible, and Needed
• Approximately 23.2 million U.S. residents currently do not have access to 3G mobile broadband service at their primary place of residence.
• Approximately 42% of road miles in the U.S. do not have access to 3G mobile broadband service.
• The estimated investment needed to build-out infrastructure to facilitate ubiquitous mobile broadband service is approximately $22 billion.
• In order to achieve full 3G mobile broadband coverage, approximately 16,000 new cell sites will need to be constructed, and 55,000 existing sites will need to be augmented with 3G technologies.
Source: CostQuest Associates
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U.S. Demographics and U.S. Wireless Demographics
U.S. Demographics
• White – 228.6 million – 75.8% of total U.S. population
• Black or African American – 39.7 million – 13.1% of total U.S. population
• Hispanic or Latino (of any race) – 45.4 million – 15.1% of total U.S. population
• Asian, American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islanders – 20.2 million – 6.8% of total population– Asian – 14.9 million – 5.0% of total U.S. population– American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and other Pacific
Islanders – 5.3 million – 1.8% of total U.S. population
Source: U.S. Census
Note: Figures sum to more than 100% because census respondents were able to select one or more categories to indicate their racial identities as well as Hispanic or Latino origin.
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Who is Doing What With Wireless Data?
The Pew Internet & American Life Project has found that:
• 84% of English-speaking Hispanics have cell phones, compared to 74% of white Americans, and 71% of African Americans.
• 90% of Hispanics, 79% Blacks, And 73% of White Users Have ‘Done’Mobile Data
• English-speaking Hispanics use mobile laptops to access the Internet at a much greater rate than the average Internet user, with African Americans also doing that at an above average clip.
• 39% of internet users say they have used a handheld device to go online – the figure is 41% for home broadband users and 36% for home dial-up users.
Source: Pew Internet & American Life Project
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What are Users Doing When They Do Wireless Data?
Source: Pew Internet & American Life Project
•77% of Americans who have cell phones or PDAs have done at least one of these 10 things.
•42% do at least one of these things on a typical day.
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Who is Doing What With Wireless Data?
Source: Pew Internet & American Life Project
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Who is Doing What With Wireless Data?
Source: Pew Internet & American Life Project
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Who is Doing What With Wireless Data?
Source: Pew Internet & American Life Project
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28
According to the Pew Internet & American Life Project:
• 52% of internet users have used a laptop or handheld to connect to the internet wirelessly away from home or work:
– 65% of English-speaking Hispanic internet users have done this.
– 54% of African American internet users have done this.
– 49% of white internet users have done this.
• 41% of Americans overall have logged-on wirelessly when away from home (using a laptop, PDA or wireless phone)
What Are Overall Internet Users Doing Wirelessly?
Source: Pew Internet & American Life Project
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0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
2Q 1999
2Q 2000
2Q 2001
2Q 2002
2Q 2003
2Q 2004
2Q 2005
2Q 2006
2Q 2007
2Q 2008M
illio
ns
ILEC End User Lines Wireless Subscribers
Wireless Subscribership Has Passed Reported ILEC Lines
Sources: CTIA Semi-Annual Survey and USAC Filings
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30
5.0%
8.4%
10.5%
12.8%
15.8%
7.3%
6.1%
13.6%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
Jan - June2004
July - Dec.2004
Jan - June2005
July - Dec.2005
Jan - June2006
July - Dec.2006
Jan - June2007
July - Dec.2007
Wireless-Only Household Numbers Continue to Climb
Source: NCHS “Wireless Substitution: Early Release of Estimates from the National Health Interview Survey, July – Dec. 2007”
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Wireless Technology Offers Political, Personal, and Business Applications to Benefit Users
• Wireless is revolutionizing how we think and how we use technology in campaigns – with Blackberries, and other wireless devices used to organize, inform, and motivate campaign workers and to get voters to the polls.
• Barack Obama’s campaign used text messages to promote events, coordinate volunteers, and – most notably – to notify 2.9 million people of his choice for Vice President.
• Wireless offers applications for personal users interested in mobile social networking; mapping programs and directions; different forms of mobile entertainment including games, music, and video.
• Wireless offers enterprise applications to increase workforce productivity, and applications such as medical telemetry, and location-based services to promote public benefits.
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Pre-3G Devices 3G+ Devices
Make and Receive Voice Calls
Capture and Transmit video and still pictures
Text-based Messaging
Listen to Music Files
Download and Play Games
Personalize with Content
Access Office Systems
Browse the Web
GPS-based services (buddy beacon)
Watch Television
Stream Radio
AdvancedGaming
TeleMedicine(imaging and
monitoring)
1G Devices
New Generations of Wireless Technology Make Possible New Applications While Preserving Older Capabilities
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Wireless Use is Projected to Generate $860 Billion in Productivity Gains Between 2007 and 2016
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Bill
ions
Source: Ovum
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Thank You