presented by: dr. darrell bricker, chief executive officer, ipsos global public affairs the big...
TRANSCRIPT
PRESENTED BY:Dr. Darrell Bricker, Chief Executive Officer, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
The Big Shift
2013 © 2012 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
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Presentation Today…
1. You Think You Know Canada
2. The Transition to a New Canadian Mindset
3. The Big Shift
4. The New Challenge: Skilled Labour
5. Redemption…
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So, how well do you think you know your country and fellow Canadians?
Let’s find out…
68%of Canadians enjoy quizzes…
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What province or region is most likely to support the de-criminalization of marijuana?
Atlantic Canada
What province or region hates taxes the most?
Quebec
What province or region is least likely to believe it’s disrespectful to put the Canadian Flag on underwear?
British Columbia
Oh Canada, eh?
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What province or region is the most religious, most believes the devil is active and most believes we will all perish in the battle of
Armageddon?
Atlantic Canada
What province or region has the most fire detectors, fire escapes and fire extinguishers?
Atlantic Canada
What province/region is least likely to believe Canada would be better off if immigrants went back where they came from?
Alberta
Oh Canada, eh?
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What province or region is the most environmentally conscious?
Atlantic Canada
What province or region believes that Anne Murray’s likeness should be put on Canadian Money?
Manitoba/Saskatchewan
What province or region believes they belong first and foremost to the country, not their province?
Ontario
Oh Canada, eh?
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Canada’s Favorite Donut?
BOSTON CREAM(18%)
MAKING ASSUMPTIONS Leads to Stereotyping
Which can lead to bad decisions…
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Forces Shaping
The NEW Canadian
Mindset
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Demography Isn’t Destiny… But…
Population
In 1960 Canada was 18 million souls, now almost 34 Million
Fertility Rate Now Below Replacement Levels
Fertility Rate
Life Expectancy Has Increased – Especially For Women
Life Expectancy By 2015
Seniors Will Outnumber Children
Seniors
We’ve Become An Urban Nation
Urban Nation
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Demography Isn’t Destiny… But…
78.6% use the internet versus 32.7% world average: even ahead of Europe @ 61.3%
Technology
Immigration has increased – and the places immigrants come from have changed
Cultural Diversity
Immigrants represent 6% of rural populations, 25% of urban areas
Immigrants and Urban Areas
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Demography Isn’t Destiny… But…
Educational attainment has increased
Education
Female employment rate has nearly doubled
Employment
The importance of trade in our economy has quadrupled
Trade
Government a bigger share of our economy - taking 25% more of our money, but redistributing more too
Government
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Historical Age Pyramid for the Population of Canada 1921 to…
1961 1961
2011 2011
MALE FEMALE
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Population Growth for G-8 CountriesCanada Leads the Pack
CANADA
UNITED STATES
UK
ITALY
FRANCE
RUSSIA
JAPAN
GERMANY
2001—2006
2006—2011
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The Top 10 Countries of Birthof Recent Immigrants to Canada
(Caribbean)
Philippines
India
China
U.K.
U.S.
France
Iran
UAE
Morocco
S. Korea
36,578
30,252
30,197
9,499
9,243
6,934
6,815
6,796
5,946
5,539
2010
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The Change in Immigrant Entry Classification: Emphasis is on Economic Immigrants…
Refugees19,204
OtherImmigrants
1,835
Economic Immigrants35,840
FamilyClass
42,475
1986Refugees24,696
OtherImmigrants
8,852
Economic Immigrants186,913
FamilyClass
60,220
2010
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7.0%
28.8%
38.4%
17.6%
13.1%
Share of Population By RegionEast of Ontario Sagging, Ontario and West Surging
3.4
3.8
4.2
0.2
4.2
ATLANTIC
QUEBEC
ONTARIO
PRAIRIES
BC
1961
2011
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Foreign Born: As a Percentage of City Population
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Introducing…
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THE BIG SHIFT
Confluence of global trends – movement of money and people
Declining birth rates and aging population
Relative decline of Quebec and the East
Changing levels and sources of immigration
Canada’s relative success and positive global image
Rise of suburban Toronto and the West as power centers
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The Consolidating Right and the Emerging Left
Ocean Pacific Atlantic
Geography Toronto suburbs, rural and West
Quebec, Atlantic, urban centers
Values Economy, government a problem, law and order, old Canadian symbols, suburban sensibilities
Equity, inclusion, anti-austerity, government drives solutions, downtown, college-town sensibilities
Demographics Middle class, established immigrants, college educated, entrepreneurs
The afflicted and those who want to help, public sector, arts community, university educated
Mood Positive and pro-change Bleak, concerned
Voting Block United 35% - 45% Divided 45% - 55%
CONSOLIDATING RIGHT EMERGING LEFT
Nobody’s Unpredictable
The Consumer Citizen Mindset has Changed
We Are Growing Older
We are Growing by Immigration, not by Births
Our Centre of Political Gravity is Shifting West and Blue
Major Challenge for Canada:
SKILLED WORKERS…
Employment Forecasts in Canada:
Source: Human Resources and Skills Development Canada
Who’s Having Trouble Filling Jobs? 34% Worldwide, 25% in Canada…
Source: Human Resources and Skills Development Canada
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Ontario Skilled Labour Force 2006 versus 2031 Even by 2016 Skilled Labour Deficit is almost 750,000
Total Labour Force Skilled Labour Force Unskilled Labour Force
1.0
0.5
0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
Million Workers
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
SURPLUS
DEFICIT
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Consistently Hardest Jobs to Fill:
Ranking in the top 10 globally for 7 consecutive years …
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Skilled Trades Workers
Engineers
Sales Representatives
Management Executives
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Acct./Finance Professionals
Technicians
Nobody’s Unpredictable
Canada Will Need to ACCELERATE Attracting and Retaining Skilled Immigrants From the World Next Door…
Mentions smaller than 5% are not shown.
Likelihood of Employees to move to another COUNTRY:
FL2. Imagine there was a full-time job available in another country at least three to five hours away by plane for anywhere between two or three years with a minimum 10% increase in your pay and all your moving expenses covered. How likely would you be to consider moving to this new job? Base: All Employed Respondents: n= 12827
25% (+6 from 19% last year )
of Global workers would
very likely consider a
move to another country
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VERY LIKELY
Top Countries for Relocation: Canada Near the Top…
FL3. Still assuming you had a full-time job opportunity abroad, which country would you most want to relocate to?Base: All Employed Respondents: n= 12827
Mentions smaller than 5% are not shown.
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Nobody’s Unpredictable
SomeKeyIncentives:
Our ECONOMY…
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Global Average Tracked - Global Citizens Assess the Current Economic Situation in their Country as “Good”:…
Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
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October 2012:
36%
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Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
Global Citizens Assess the Current Economic Situation in their Country as “Good”…October 2012 data
‘Very Good / Somewhat Good’
Canada #3
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North American (Canada/US) CountriesAssessing the Current Economic Situation
Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
N/CVery Good / Somewhat Good
44 Points
CANADA
U.S.
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Points to Ponder…
Canada is NOT the United States
The ‘Casino’ economy is NOT the real economy
‘Tough times are relative’ and compared to the rest of the world Canadians are NOT living through ‘tough times’
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Canada’s NewFace
Next…
What analysts and others say about Canada…
BrandCanada…
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Best Country For Business 2011:
#1 Canada
FORBES:
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WORLD TRAVEL MARKET
Canada most powerful country brand in the world for the second year in a row…
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Canada has best reputation in world based on survey of 42,000 people in 51 countries…
FUTURE BRAND:
Nobody’s Unpredictable38
Canada’s NewFace
What Global CitizensThink AboutUs…
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How The World Views Canadians:
Friendly
Polite
Educated
Hard working
Care about the environment
Different than people in the U.S.A
Financially well off
Someone I would welcome into my house for a meal
Tolerant of people of different racial and cultural backgrounds
Cool
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How The World Views Canadians:
A place I'd Like to Visit
Some of Most Beautiful Landscapes in the World
Where Rights & Freedoms are Respected
One of the Best Qualities of Life Anywhere in the World
One of the Best Health Care Systems in the World
Welcoming to Immigrants
A Leader in Working for Peace and Human Rights Around the World
If I Had a Choice I would Move to Canada
Canadians are sexy
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Redemption: So, now you get a second chance…
How well do you know Canada and your fellow Canadians?
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What province or region has the most fire detectors, fire escapes and fire extinguishers?
Atlantic Canada
What province or region is most likely to have used a mobile device in the bathroom – and most likely to scoop it out if it falls in?
Prairies
What province or region says that their family is like a ‘well oiled machine’ in getting up and going in the morning?
Quebec
Oh Canada, eh?
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Province or region most likely to believe that Aliens have come down from another planet and are actually walking among us, disguised,
today?
AlbertaCanadian city where women are most satisfied with their love life,
body image, their personal health and satisfaction overall?
Oh Canada, eh?
Toronto…
WHERE DARRELL LIVES
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