MAY 09, 2008MAY 09, 2008

POWER SHORTAGE IN PAKISTAN AND SHORT TERMS SOLUTION

TO AVOID LOADSHEDDING.

POWER SHORTAGE IN PAKISTAN AND SHORT TERMS SOLUTION

TO AVOID LOADSHEDDING.

EXISTING GENERATING CAPACITY

* Hydro availability based on last 5 years average ** Excludes 10% Forced Outages for GENCOs & 6.0% for IPPs & Rental

Type of Generation

Nameplate/Installed Capacity

(MW)

Derated/Dependable

Capacity (MW)

Availability (MW)

Summer Winter

WAPDA Hydro 6444 6444 6250 2300*

GENCOs 4840 3580 2780 3222**

IPPs (incl Nuclear) 6115 5541 4950 5208**

Rental 285 188 168 177**

Total 17684 15753 14148 10907

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Historical Demand(2002 – 2007)

YEARWAPDA* KESC COUNTRY**

MW G.R. MW G.R. MW G.R.

2001-02 10109 4.0% 1885 1.3% 11875 3.6%

2002-03 10481 3.7% 1973 4.7% 12244 3.1%

2003-04 11078 5.7% 2073 10.0% 13021 6.4%

2004-05 12035 8.6% 2197 6.0% 14091 8.2%

2005-06 13212 9.8% 2223 1.2% 15282 8.5%

2006-07 15138 14.6% 2349 5.7% 17314 13.3%

* WAPDA computed demand; without export to KESC** Assuming 1% diversity between WAPDA & KESC Power Demands

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Historical Surplus/Deficit(2002 – 2007)

YEAR

WAPDA SYSTEM

Installed Capacity

Firm Capability

Computed Peak Demand

Surplus/ Shortfall

2001-02 15819 10894 10459 435

2002-03 15819 10958 11044 -86

2003-04 17299 11834 11598 236

2004-05 17350 12792 12595 197

2005-06 17400 12600 13847 -1247

2006-07 17366 13292 15838 -2546

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Month-wise surplus/deficit (MW)Month Peak Demand

Corresponding Capability

Surplus/deficit

Jan-07 12093 11039 -1054

Feb-07 11590 12552 962

Mar-07 12311 11171 -1140

Apr-07 13843 13002 -841

May-07 14650 13567 -1083

Jun-07 15838 13292 -2546

Jul-07 15941 13706 -2235

Aug-07 15862 13666 -2196

Sep-7 16056 13644 -2412

Oct-07 13737 14092 355

Nov-07 12401 11590 -811

Dec-07 12154 9679 -2475

Jan-08 12255 9104 -3151

Feb-08 12123 10122 -2001

Mar-08 13682 9845 -3837

Apr-08 15124 11568 -3556 5

Demand & Hydro Capability in May (MW)2007 vs 2008

DatePeak Demand Hydro Capability

2007 2008 Diff 2007 2008 Diff

1 13560 15008 1448 5502 3409 -2093

2 13847 15857 2010 5526 3567 -1959

3 12843 15739 2896 5358 3616 -1742

4 12717 15042 2325 5521 3326 -2195

5 13681 14892 1211 5473 3799 -1674

6 13670 15838 2168 5571 3825 -1746

7 13598 15386 1788 5588 3470 -2118

8 13709 15305 1596 5418 3772 -1646

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LOAD FORECASTBased on Regression Analysis

(Revised April, 2008)

* Base year figure without export to KESC

Year MW G.R (%)

2006-07* 15138  

2007-08 16484 8.9

2008-09 17868 8.4

2009-10 19352 8.3

A.C.G.R. (2006-2010) 8.5

2010-11 20874 7.9

2011-12 22460 7.6

2012-13 24126 7.4

2013-14 25919 7.4

2014-15 28029 8.1

A.C.G.R. (2010-2015)   7.7

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FUTURE GENERATION PROJECTS*(2008-2011)

*Based on WPPO information dated 25 April 20088

FiscalYear

Name of Project TypeInstalledCapacity

(MW)

Expected COD

CapacityAdded ineach Year

(MW)

TotalInstalledCapacity

(MW)

Existing Capacity 17684

2007-08 Malakand-III HPP Public 81 May. 2008 141 17825

Rehab. of GENCO Plants Public 60 Jun. 2008

2008-09 Orient Thermal (Balloki) IPP 150 Jul. 2008 2029 19854

Attock Power Project IPP 165 Oct. 2008

Rental Plant at F/Abad IPP 150 Nov. 2008

Rental Plant at Guddu IPP 110 Nov. 2008

Rental Plant at Multan IPP 192 Dec. 2008

Rental Plant at Sahiwal IPP 150 Dec. 2008

Rehab. of GENCO Plants IPP 240 Dec. 2008

Rental Plant at Satiana Road IPP 200 Jan. 2009

Orient Thermal(Balloki) IPP 75 Jan. 2009

FUTURE GENERATION PROJECTS*(2008-2011)

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FiscalYear

Name of Project TypeInstalledCapacity

(MW)

Expected COD

CapacityAdded ineach Year

(MW)

TotalInstalledCapacity

(MW)

Rental Plant at Ludewala IPP 200 Feb. 2009

Rental Plant at Nooriabad IPP 100 Mar. 2009

Atlas Shirazi Project IPP 225 Mar. 2009

Khan Khwar HPP Public 72 Apr. 2009

2009-10 Duber Khwar HPP Public 130 Jul. 2009 2255 22109

Muridke Power Project IPP 225 Jul. 2009

Fauji Mari Power Proj IPP 202 Sep. 2009

F/Abad ICB Project Public 375 Nov. 2009

Dadu ICB Project Public 375 Nov. 2009

Nishat Power project IPP 200 Dec. 2009

Jinnah Low Head Hydel Public 96 Feb. 2010

Sahiwal Power Project IPP 225 Feb. 2010

*Based on WPPO information dated 25 April 2008

FUTURE GENERATION PROJECTS*(2008-2011)

10

FiscalYear

Name of Project TypeInstalledCapacity

(MW)

Expected COD

CapacityAdded ineach Year

(MW)

TotalInstalledCapacity

(MW)

Engro Power Project IPP 227 Jun. 2010

Nishat Chunian Project IPP 200 Jun. 2010

2010-11 Allai Khwar HPP Public 121 Jul. 2010 4856 26965

C.C. at F/Abad Public 125 Nov. 2010

C.C. at Dadu Public 125 Nov. 2010

Nandipur Power project Public 425 Dec. 2010

Bhikki Power Project IPP 225 Dec. 2010

Western ElectricProject IPP 150 Dec. 2010

Green Power Project IPP 205 Dec. 2010

KAPCO Extension IPP 400 Dec. 2010

HUBCO Narowal IPP 225 Dec. 2010

Liberty Power IPP 200 Dec. 2010

*Based on WPPO information dated 25 April 2008

FUTURE GENERATION PROJECTS*(2008-2011)

11

FiscalYear

Name of Project TypeInstalledCapacity

(MW)

Expected COD

CapacityAdded ineach Year

(MW)

TotalInstalledCapacity

(MW)

PIE AmPower Project IPP 390 Dec. 2010

Star Thermal Project IPP 134 Jan. 2011

CC at Chichoki Mallian Public 526 Mar. 2011

Bestway IPP 205 Mar. 2011

Guddu Steam Public 750 Apr. 2011

UCH-2 ICB Power Project IPP 450 Jun. 2011

Gulistan Project IPP 200 Jun. 2011

*Based on WPPO information dated 25 April 2008

SUMMAY OF POWER SUPPLY & DEMAND POSITION (MW)

*Actual figures up to April, 2008**Based on average hydrology conditions & includes export to KESC

Year Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2007-08 -2235 -2196 -2412 355 -811 -2475 -3151 -2001 -3837 -3556 -3676 -3198

2008-09 -2884 -2714 -2749 -2780 -2945 -2779 -3028 -2791 -2819 -2824 -2777 -2780

2009-10 -2548 -2276 -2388 -2291 -2270 -2409 -2412 -2282 -2274 -2295 -2264 -2283

2010-11 -2207 -1919 -1598 -1329 -868 -859 -674 -885 -877 -871 -901 -888

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Load Management Programme (LMP)A. By Reduction in Peak Load 1000 MW

• Reduction in industrial load (during peak hours) (400MW)• Switching off alternate street light points (30 MW)• Switching off Bill Boards (20 MW)• Closure of Shopping Plazas by 8.00 P.M (300 MW)• Staggering of Holidays (100 MW)• TOD Meters for Tubewells (150 MW)

B. By Additional Capacity & System Augmentation/Improvement 200 MW• Addition of SPPs at 11 K.V or 132 KV (100 MW)• Massive maintenance–Transmission & Distt. System (50 MW)• System augmentation & up-gradation of distribution T/Fs (30 MW)• Installation of 11KV Capacitors on 11KV Lines (20 MW)

C. Energy Loss Reduction 300 MW• Technical measures (150 MW)• Theft reduction (150 MW)

Total Target Saving 1500 MW13

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