presentation frances ruane
DESCRIPTION
AGORA Economic Conference 4th Athens Biennale 2013 12/10/13TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Presentation frances ruane](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062511/54baaa6c4a79597a308b464c/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The Great Recession: An Irish Perspective
Frances Ruane
Athens Biennale, October 12, 2013
![Page 2: Presentation frances ruane](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062511/54baaa6c4a79597a308b464c/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2
Society and the Great Recession..
Return to more sombre times in Ireland BUT Seamus Heaney (2009) said that people do not
live by economics alone: “if poetry and the arts can do anything, they can fortify your inner life, your inwardness”
Creativity in all domains has strengthened Feeding into theatre, film, art, novels and poetry Feeding into new businesses and new ideas But there have been great costs ...
![Page 3: Presentation frances ruane](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062511/54baaa6c4a79597a308b464c/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3
Key Features of the Irish Economy
Strong multinationals in high-growth sectors Services are really important Strong domestic food sector Significant tourism BUT High wage costs and high prices Strong vested interests (e.g. Professions) Pub Sector efficiency needs to increase Troika has been important
![Page 4: Presentation frances ruane](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062511/54baaa6c4a79597a308b464c/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4
Impact of the Great Recession
Growth
Unemployment
Migration
Public Finances
Poverty and Equality
Government response required austerity plus solidarity
![Page 5: Presentation frances ruane](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062511/54baaa6c4a79597a308b464c/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5
Irish Real GDP Growth 1948 – 2012
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
GDP Growth rate
![Page 6: Presentation frances ruane](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062511/54baaa6c4a79597a308b464c/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Irish Growth Performance in Context
% change
Greece
Portugal
Spain
Ireland
![Page 7: Presentation frances ruane](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062511/54baaa6c4a79597a308b464c/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Employment and Unemployment Rates (%)
Unemployment rate
Employment rate
2000 - 2012% %
![Page 8: Presentation frances ruane](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062511/54baaa6c4a79597a308b464c/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Net Migration, Immigration and Emigration
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Emigration Immigration Net Migration
Th
ou
san
ds
![Page 9: Presentation frances ruane](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062511/54baaa6c4a79597a308b464c/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9
Public Finances – Debt to GDP Ratio
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Debt as a percentage of GDP
![Page 10: Presentation frances ruane](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062511/54baaa6c4a79597a308b464c/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Poverty, Deprivation & Inequality rates % %
Consistent Poverty
Deprivation
At Risk of Poverty
Gini coefficient
![Page 11: Presentation frances ruane](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062511/54baaa6c4a79597a308b464c/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
-9.0
-8.0
-7.0
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0Budget 2009
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
-14.0
-12.0
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
Budgets 2009 to 2013
Income distribution effects of First Austerity Budget supported Solidarity
Income Distribution Effects of Cumulative Austerity Budgets
Percentage changes in income by Decile
![Page 12: Presentation frances ruane](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062511/54baaa6c4a79597a308b464c/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Distributive impact on Households containingan elderly person Vs with a child
Budgets 2009-2012
WHY?
![Page 13: Presentation frances ruane](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062511/54baaa6c4a79597a308b464c/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
13
The Grey Protest, September 2008
![Page 14: Presentation frances ruane](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062511/54baaa6c4a79597a308b464c/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14
Ireland’s Future Growth Prospects
EU stability/performance is crucialGrowth depends mostly on exportsEU-27/US are our major markets Can Ireland recover? Confidence is crucial for growthUncertainty abounds ..
![Page 15: Presentation frances ruane](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062511/54baaa6c4a79597a308b464c/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
15-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0% GDP Growth
WORLD
Global Growth potential but ...
![Page 16: Presentation frances ruane](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062511/54baaa6c4a79597a308b464c/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
16
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0% GDP Growth
WORLD
US
EU
Lower in our key markets
![Page 17: Presentation frances ruane](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062511/54baaa6c4a79597a308b464c/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
17
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
GDP Growth
CHINA
WORLD
=> Higher growth means entering new markets
![Page 18: Presentation frances ruane](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062511/54baaa6c4a79597a308b464c/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Ireland’s Growth Prospects: Scenarios Recovery scenario
Recovery in the EU National macro strategies work out
Delayed Adjustment scenario EU recovery Domestic recovery delayed (policy failure)
Stagnation scenario EU stagnation National macro strategies cannot work
ESRI Medium Term Review 2013
![Page 19: Presentation frances ruane](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062511/54baaa6c4a79597a308b464c/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
GNP
100000
110000
120000
130000
140000
150000
160000
170000
180000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Recovery Stagnation Delayed Adjustment
![Page 20: Presentation frances ruane](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062511/54baaa6c4a79597a308b464c/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Debt / GNP Ratio
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Recovery Stagnation Delayed Adjustment
![Page 21: Presentation frances ruane](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062511/54baaa6c4a79597a308b464c/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Unemployment Rate
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
% o
f Lab
our F
orce
Recovery Stagnation Delayed Adjustment
![Page 22: Presentation frances ruane](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062511/54baaa6c4a79597a308b464c/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Public Finances – Current Debate
Balance between expenditure and taxation –has been 2:1 formula throughout
Approach: Deliver on agreement with Troika Current Options : 1: Cut by €3.1bn – as per Troika Agreement ( 2: Take benefit of increased recent
performance and cut by less the €3.1bn Government and Troika: €2.5 bn Solidarity Focus
![Page 23: Presentation frances ruane](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062511/54baaa6c4a79597a308b464c/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
23
Trade Union March, 2012
![Page 24: Presentation frances ruane](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062511/54baaa6c4a79597a308b464c/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Economic Overview
Austerity approach has been painfulSocial Response has been relatively muted ..Distribution effects have helped solidarity Delivery on promises rewarded by marketBUTMany old legacy issues not yet tackledNew legacy issues will need to be sortedLooking forward
![Page 25: Presentation frances ruane](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062511/54baaa6c4a79597a308b464c/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
25
Looking Forward..
Creativity
Transformation
Flexibility
Innovation