presentation ev bruxelles
TRANSCRIPT
Electric vehicle market An energy perspective
Lénaïc GeorgelinEuropean Commission, DG Research & InnovationEnergy conversion & distribution systems
“Recharging the European Electric Vehicle Market”, Brussels, 22/02/2012
The policy framework
• 2007 – Climate & Energy policy: 20-20-20 / Roadmap 2050
• 2008 - European Strategic Energy Technologies Plan – SET Plan
• 2009 - 3rd internal energy market package
• 2011 - Energy efficiency directive
• 2011 - 2050 Energy Roadmap
• 2011 - Strategic Transport Technology Plan
• 2011 - Communication on clean transport systems
• 2011 - Transport White Paper – 2050 perspective
The main energy challenges
TodayTomorrow:- More renewable/distributed energyore renewable/distributed energy
-- Security of Supply Security of Supply -- CompetitivenessCompetitiveness
-- PanPan--European NetworkEuropean Network
-> Smart Grids
Energy challenges and electro-mobility
Transformer
CP = Charging PoleCS = Connecting SleeveTSO = Transmission System OperatorDSO = Distribution System Operator
Power Producer TSO DSO
MeteringPointkWh
RetailerEnergy Trader
Public Area
Distribution Grid
Transmission GridPower Plant
CP
CS
MeasurementData
Accounting Data
Payment(energy incl. grid usage fee)
Grid UsageFee
Grid Usage Fee/Balancing Energy
Payment (energy)Payment (energy)
Power
Data Flow
Monetary Flow
Customer (EV)
Energy challenges and electro-mobility
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 25 49 73 97 121 145
GW
Time (hours)
Non-optimised EV charging Net demand
Net demand =
Non EV demand - Wind
Non-optimized charging
EV Charging coinciding with peak demand periods
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 25 49 73 97 121 145
GW
Time (hours)
Optimised EV charging (MW) Net demand
Net demand =
Non EV demand - Wind
EV Charging optimized during low demand periods
Optimized charging (unidirectional)
A peak demand week in December(100% EV penetration)
Source: G4V project
Main framework: smart-grid, EV & research
SET Plan European Electricity Grids Initiative
• 2010-2018 Roadmap for
smart grid RD&D
• 2010-2012 Implementation
plan
• R&D budget: €2 billion
• Contains the functional
project ” Integration of
electric vehicles”, with R&D
cost estimate of 100 M€.
Main framework: smart-grid, EV & research
European Green Car Initiative (EGCI)
• PPP from recovery package (2008-9)
• European roadmap for electrification of road transport
• R&D budget: €1 billion (€500 million from FP7 matched by a similar amount from industry and Member States)
• EIB loans: €4 billion (additional amount for 2009-2010)
Project – G4V• Development of an analytical method to assess the impact of the
mass introduction of EV and PHEV on the electricity grids
• Recommendations for technological upgrading of the grid infrastructure and related ICT system solutions for grid management
• Recommendations for policy makers to foster electric mobility (regulations and incentives)
• Identification of business opportunities for different stakeholders groups
• Elaboration of standardisation proposals => Joint European Approach
• Definition of future required RTD activities and projects
12 partners
8 countries
Total budget 3.8M€
http://www.g4v.eu/index.html
Project – MERGE
• Development of a management and control concept to facilitate the transition from conventional to electric
vehicles
• Adoption of an evaluation tools to model, analyze, and optimize electric networks for EV integration
• Assessment of Dispersed Energy Resources (DER) deployment in electro-mobility
18 partners
8 countries
Total budget 4.4M€
http://www.ev-merge.eu/
Deploying electric vehicles: some conclusions
• New grid planning and operations tools necessary
• Smart charging of paramount important (ICT key enabler)
• Slow/home charging preferred short-term option
• Fast/public charging important for range anxiety
• Possible need for local grid reinforcement
• Standardisation and interoperability needed
• New business models / regulation required
• V2G business case for longer-term
• Deployment of smart charging offers opportunity- to store renewable energy…
… to avoid curtailment of intermittent generation capacity
• DG Research & Innovation:Energy:
ec.europa.eu/research/energy/
Transport:
ec.europa.eu/research/transport/
• European Electricity Grid Initiativewww.smartgrids.eu/node/20
• European Green Car Initiativewww.green-cars-initiative.eu
More information
Boosting the EV market in Europe
Consumer Acceptance, New Business Models and Value Chains
Boosting the EV market in Europe
Chairman’s Opening Remarks
3
4
5
6
1
2
3
2011 Overview: Did Not Live Up To Its Hype But Soli d Foundation Was Laid For Coming Years
Sales of Electric Vehicles were lower than expected due to the delay in launches and Japan’s earthquake
Vehicle Manufacturers have increased technology/mar ket partnerships for progressing into EV launch phase – There were more than 5 joint ventures by major OEMs in 2011
Federal Governments providing new subsidies to EV a nd implementing - More than 9 regions announced incentives for EVs in 2011
More governments extending benefits to EVs and VMs ex panding markets - Plug-car grant has been extended until 2015
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
There were approximately 14 Electric Vehicles laun ched globally in 2011 despite low sales
Implementation of charging infrastructure has gath ered pace - Chademo type quick charging stations has increased to about 950 global ly
4
EuropeNorth America
APAC
Electric Vehicle Market: Electric Vehicle Sales (Wo rld), 2011
Global Electric Vehicle sales until December 2011 has been about 43,000 vehicles
Non-traditional
VMs36%
Traditional VMs64%
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
5
>500
200-500
<200
•More than 7,000 public charging stations have been installed between 2010/11 globally, about 3,800 in USA
•In 2010, the EV project was launched in North America which is working towards deploying 14,000 level 2 and 400 DC fast charging stations across North America by 2013.They will be deployed in six states and District of Columbia and across 18 major and metropolitan cities.
Implementation of charging infrastructure has gath ered pace -Chademo type quick charging stations has increased to about 950 globally. 400 installed in 2011, out of which 120 were installed in Europe
Leading states of EVs Charging Infrastructure U.S.A, 2011
1. United Kingdom
2. France
3. Germany
4. Scandinavia
5. Spain
6. Italy
7. Portugal
8. Netherlands
9. Sweden
10. Austria
Top 10 Countries for EVs Charging Infrastructure Eur ope, 2011
1. Arizona
2. California
3. District of
Columbia
4. Florida
5. Hawaii
6. Michigan
7. New York
8. Oregon
9. Tennessee
10. Texas
11. Washington
High
Medium
Low
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
6
Belgium Vehicle powered by electric motors exclusively rece ive 30% reduction with a maximum of €9,190.
Electric vehicles pay the lowest rate of tax under the registration tax (€ 61.50) and under annual circ ulation tax(€ 71.28).
Benefit in kind for the private use of a zero emiss ion vehicle as a company car is taxed at the lowest rate (€500- €750).
Portugal Purchasers of electric vehicles receive a p remium of €5,000 (limited to 5,000 vehicles).
Electric vehicles are exempt from registration tax ISV and annual circulation tax.
Turkey Reduction of special consumption tax accordin g to the motor power (< 85kW – 3%, >85<125kW – 7%, >1 25kW – 15%).
India Indian government has announced 20% incentive on the cost of the electric vehicle. For two-wheeler s it is maximum up to
Rs.5,000 and electric cars Rs.100,000
Spain Regional governments will provide grant incent ives between €2,000 - €7,000 for electric, hybrid, f uel cell, CNG and LPG vehicles.
Ireland Electric vehicles will receive benefit from VRT relief of maximum €5,000.
Romania Electric cars will be exempt for the special pollution tax.
Exempt from registration tax.
Estonia50% reduction in electric vehicles priced up to €18 ,000 and €1,000 on installation of residential char ging station.
IsraelTax incentive with only 10% purchase tax on electri c vehicles compared with 90% on regular cars .
Federal Governments providing new subsidies to EV – More than 9 regions announced incentives for EVs in 2011
Belgium, India, Estonia, Portugal , Turkey are some of the countries who have announced fresh incentives /subsidiesto EVs Countries like UK, Ireland and Romania has started implementing subsidies in 2011, while Spain increased the
maximum incentive from €6,000 to €7,000.
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
7
More governments extending benefits to EVs and VMs expa nding markets – Plug-car grant has been extended until 2015 and including vans for 20% incentive up to £8,000
East of England
Northern Ireland
Midlands
North East
Scotland
LondonMilton Keynes
Greater Manchester
The plugged in places program in the UK was extended to 8 regions in 2011and formulated a strategy for execution
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
Plugged-in
Places Project
The program tenders matched funding to businesses and public sector to support installation of electric vehicle charging stations across the United Kingdom.
Plug in Car
GrantThe grant provides 25% funding to electric
vehicles up to £5,000 and 20% or maximum
£8,000 to vans. It has been extended until 2015.
Office of Low Emission Vehicle (OLEV) funds
It is concerned with ultra-low emission vehicles
and has been established to manage and fund
the various programs such as plugged-in
places, plug in car and van grant.
The electric vehicle initiative launched by the clean energy ministerial office, seeks to facilitate the global deployment of electric vehicles. The members of the initiative include China, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, India, Japan, Portugal, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, the United States, and the United Kingdom.
Boosting the EV market in Europe
Panel Session 2:
The Role of the EV Market in Boosting Consumer Adoption
2
Global EV Market Size and Forecasts Plus EU Focus
3
Global Electric Vehicle Demand Analysis – Potential Sales of 2.2 M in F&S Scenario by 2017
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan
Electric Vehicle Market: Sales Forecasts Scenario A nalysis (World), 2009-2017
Scenario’s 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2020(% of
Total Car Sales)
Optimistic 5,060 16,100 43,200 248,400 816,200 1,373,200 2,094,800 2,865,200 3,531,500 10-12%
Frost & Sullivan 5,060 16,100 43,200 110,100 286,500 735,800 1,314,300 1,741,000 2,228,400 5-7%
Conservative 5,060 16,100 43,200 66,500 178,600 318,300 451,000 602,400 796,800 2-4%
4
60%
38%
2%
69%
22%
2%1%
6%
46%
38%
4%2%
10%
70%
3%
13%
14%
EV Breakdown By Region – CEVs to Account for 69% Share In Europe; NA to Witness More PHEVs with a 38% Share
2011
43,200
56%
13%2%
26%
3%
2.2 Million
59%
29%
4%1%
2017
7%
• eREV and PHEVs likely to account major share in the N orth American market driven by the virtue of demographics and customer driving characteristics => GM for eREVs. On the other hand, CEVs suit the demographics for the Europe.
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010 Source: Frost & Sullivan
Electric Vehicle Market: EV Breakdown By Region – Sa les Estimates (World), 2017
5
Country Type of incentive in 2010 and 2011
Austria • €5000 rebate if vehicle charged with green electricity, €2500 with conventional electricity
• Exemption from vehicle tax
Belgium • Vehicle powered by electric motors exclusively receive 30% reduction with a maximum of €9,190.
• Electric vehicles pay the lowest rate of tax under the registration tax (€ 61.50) and under annual circulation
tax(€ 71.28).
• Benefit in kind for the private use of a zero emission vehicle as a company car is taxed at the lowest rate
(€500- €750).
Denmark • No registration tax and owner tax
• No “green ownership fee”
France • €5000 rebate
• No registration fee
Netherlands • Exemption from car tax
• No registration tax
Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Market : G overnment initiative towards deployment of Electric Vehicles
Exemption in registration and car tax is the most co mmon type ofincentive offered
6
Electric Vehicle Market: Planned Electric Vehicle P roduct Offerings, Global, 2010–2017
Mic
roca
rs(Q
uadr
icyc
lean
d S
ub-A
)
A
C
B
2011 20132010 2012 Future (till 2017)
G-WizREVA
BUDDYPure mobility
Mega CityAixam Mega
YDEAMicro Vett
FriendlyHeuliez
C-Zero PSACity Th!nk
I0n PSA
MiniEBMW
LeafNissanVolt
Chevrolet
Twizy Z.E.Renault
Microcar ZENN
i-MiEVMitsubishi
Indica VistaEV TATA
Li – Car REVA
A-Class E-Cell Daimler
ED Smart
Model X Miles/Coda
Fluence Z.E.Renault
E-up!VW
NXRREVA
PX iMiEVMitsubishi
Zoe Z.E. Renault i10 BlueonHyundai
Honda Fit EV
E46 DetroitElectricE63 Detroit
Electric
Blue-will PHEVHyundaii
C-Max EnergiFord
Focus Ford
Nina PHEV Fisker?
F3DM BYD
Ampera Opel
NXGREVA
iQ basedToyota 500 EV
Fiat
A1 e-tron Audi A2 e-tronAudi
B0 basedPininfarina Re1 Fuji Heavy
MegaCityBMW
Golf blue-e-motion
VW
C4 based PSA Jetta VW 200C Sedan
Chrysler
RAV4 EV Toyota
Leon Twin DriveSeat
Nano EVTATA
JouleOptimal Energy
IBE conceptSEAT BlueOn
Hyundai
WILLHeuliez
C30 DRIVeVolvo
Octavia GreenE Line Škoda
Model X Honda
Hatchback Infiniti
Ray PHEVKIA
?
10
18
7
22
57
Electric Vehicle Product Launches Global: C-Segment vehicle launches are critical, with about 19 models to be launched between 2012 and 2017
Note: This is an indicative list rather not meant to be exhaustive
7
Electric Vehicle Product Launches Globally: About 18 sports cars to be launched by 2017
Electric Vehicle Market: Planned Electric Vehicle P roduct Offerings, Global, 2010–2017
2011 20132010 2012 Future (till 2017)
Sports
MPV
LCV
D
Roadster TeslaLightning GT
Fetish Venturi
Ram PHEVDodge
BerlingoElectric
PSA
Partner Electric
PSA
Model STesla
VerdeRevenge
Vito E-CellDaimler Transit Ford
MiniCab MIEV Mitsubishi
SUVPhoenix Motors
V70 PHEV Volvo
e6BYD
X1Wrightspeed
Karma PHEV Fisker Auto
Sport Greentech Auto
Elise ElectricLotus
V60 Electric Volvo
KangooExpress Z.E.
Renault
Solo SUVVelozzi
?
PX-iMiEV Mitsubishi
Model X GM
Sonata Hyundai
SurvoltPSA
Luxury EV Infiniti
9.3 CabrioTrue ElectricSaab
Sports car BMW
Orlando PHEVChevrolet
Denki Cube EV Nissan
9-3 ePower Sports Estate Saab
Minivan ShuttleZAP
XJ PHEVJaguar
i8/ActiveE BMW
PassatVW
OpenTh!nk
R4 Electric Roadster Audi
911 GT3R Electric Porsche
R8 Audi
C-X75Jaguar
M Class Daimler
7
9
18
7
41Note: This is an indicative list rather not meant to be exhaustive
8
Hybrid & Electric MCV and HCV Production by Drivetr ain (Global): Combined Hybrid+Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus and Other Bus Production to Reach 307K by 2020
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
2009 2020
Pro
duct
ion
Uni
ts
Series-Parallel Parallel Series Electric Total Units:307,858
Total Units:6,934
2020 Unit Shares
North America Brazil Rest of America
Western Europe
Russia Rest of Europe
China Korea Japan India Rest of Asia
Americas 2020
EMEA 2020
Asia 2020
132,859
10,9215,962
30,487
10,623
4,503
52,584
14,277
26,82516,869
1,948
Americas53% Europe
13%
Asia34%
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010.
EMEA15%
Asia37%
Americas48%
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit and Other Bus Market: Production Volume Forecast by Drivetrain (W orld), 2009-2020
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
9
The Overview of Potential Business Models in Europe: Outright Sales and leasing concept preferred by key players
Outright Purchase Price
Vauxhall AmperaNissan LeafBusiness Model
Basic Business Packages
Warranty Conditions
• GB£30,990 (before rebate, incl. VAT)
PSA C-Zero iMEV
1. Outright Purchase
• Basic - 3 yrs unlimited miles
• EV components – 5 yrs
• Roadside assistance – 3 yrs
• Anti – corrosion perforation – 8 yrs
• £37,250 (Before rebate, incl. VAT)
• £28,990 (Before rebate, inl. VAT)
1. Outright Purchase
1. Outright Purchase
2. Leasing
£ 319 month for 36 months
£ 215 contract hire for 60 months
6 rentals payable in advance
• Basic – Lifetime up to 100,000 miles
• Battery/electric propulsion – 8 yrs/100,000 miles
• Anti-perforation corrosion – 6 yrs
• Vauxhall assistance – 1 yr
2. Leasing plan available, amount to be announced
2. Leasing
£ 299 for four years and 40,000 miles contract
• Basic – 2 yrs dealers and 6 yrs by manufacturer
• Drivetrain – 3 yrs dealers and 5 yrs by manufacturer
• Full servicing and maintenance for 4 yrs
1. Outright Purchase
• £33,155 (Before rebate, incl. VAT)
• Basic – 3 yrs/60,000 miles
• EV components – 5 yrs/60,000 miles
• Roadside assistance– 3 yrs
• Anti-corrosion – 12 yrs
• Paint – 3 yrs
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
10
Business Model TWIZY FLUENCE Z.E.
Outright Purchase Price
Basic Business Packages
Warranty Conditions
• £6,690 (inc. VAT)
1. Outright Purchase
2. Leasing
£40 for 36 months for battery lease.
2. Leasing
£69.60/month for battery lease inc. VAT*
£17,850 (inc. VAT*)
(after £5,000 incentive)
1. Outright Purchase
1. Outright Purchase
2. Leasing
£62 for 48 months for battery lease.
Renault-Nissan likely to be the first OEM to sell a complete range of electric vehicles including light commercial electric vehicles
• £16,990 (exc. VAT)
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
Kangoo Z.E
Expected launch date
Est. annual sales (Europe)
Launch Markets
March 2012
United Kingdom
Launched - October 2011
Europe
Launched - November 2011
Israel
800-1,000 units (Europe) 1,000-1,200 units (Europe) 5 ,000-6,000 units (Europe)
• Vehicle – 5yrs/ unlimited mileage
• Electric motor – 5 years /100,000 km
Zoe Z.E.
Expected price -£14,000 (inc. VAT* after incentives)
1. Outright Purchase
• Vehicle – 5yrs/ unlimited mileage
• Electric motor – 5 years /100,000 km
• Vehicle – 5yrs/ unlimited mileage
• Electric motor – 5 years /100,000 km
• Vehicle – 5yrs/ unlimited mileage
• Electric motor – 3 years /unlimited mileage
September 2011
1,000-1,200 units (Europe)
Europe
2. Leasing (Expected) £65 for 48 months for battery lease.
11
CAGR : 85%
Uni
ts (
In 0
00’s
)
European Electric Vehicle Market – A and C segment vehicles estimated to capture 35% and 40% of the total European car parc respectively for EV by 2018
Van Derived EV’s interesting for business fleets catering to deliveries, utilities etc.
35%
40%
6%1%
3%
14%
Strong competition expected from Mitsubishi iMEV, Toyota iQ, Peugoet iON, VW UP and Renault ZE
Mass manufacturers like Nissan with their Leaf, Renault Fluence, Opel Ampere, Toyota Prius will cater to this segment
Electric Vehicle Market: Sales Volumes by EV Segm ent (Europe), 2011 -2018
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
12
Mega Trends Influencing EV Market Development
13
New Micro Mobility products
E-MobilityUrbanization Mega and Smart Cities
Car Sharing/Car Pooling
Integrated Mobility Solutions
Sustainable Public Transportation and
BRT
New Business Models (Value for Many)
Geo-SocializationAnd Social Media
Connected and Wireless Planet
High Speed Rail Gen Y
Global Mega Trends Impacting Mobility in the Future
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
14
Treasure Island
Boulder
ArcosantiCoyote Springs
Destiny
Babcock Ranch
Vancouver
Toronto
San Francisco
PortlandSeattle
Curitiba
Montreal
Bogota
St Davids
Clonburris
Göteborg
Hammarby Sjöstad
London
Barcelona
Reykjavik Oslo
Freiburg
Stockholm
Paris
Copenhagen
Kochi
GIFT
Cape Town
Pune
Dongtan
Tianjin
Changsha
KhajurahoMeixi Lake
Waitakere, N.Z.
Singapore City
Songdo
Moreland, Australia
Amsterdam
Masdar
Cities built from scratch
Existing eco cities
Existing eco megacities
Legend
SMART Cities Globally : Over 40 Global Cities to be SMART Cities in 2020 and over 150 Cities Globally to be Eco city/Sustainable cities by 2020, leading EV Implementation
Note: The images are used only for representation.Image Source: Google Images
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
15
Future Innovation in Mobility – The electric powertrain will embrace all the new mobility solutions
Technology Innovation
Traffic Prediction system
Parking Search assistance
Cashless Payment
Wild Innovation
Mobility Integration
New Mobility Products
Motorized Mover
Two seated Electric Car
Improvement
Micro cars
Electric Cars
Electric Bikes
Application Innovation
Car Sharing
Car Pooling
Bike Sharing
Unknown
Solutions
Known
Solutions
Met needs Unmet needsSource: Frost & Sullivan analysis
16
Worldwide 32 Million subscriptions
expected by 2020
Usage of Electric Vehicle
By 2016, 1 in 5 vehicles of the carsharing vehicle fleet is expected to be a battery powered EV.
Member
Carsharing subscriber base to be 14 Million in EU by 2020
Vehicle
200,000 shared vehicles expected in
Europe by 2020
Potential Market
France, United Kingdom, Germany and Switzerland to hold around 75 per cent of Revenue Share in 2016.
Vehicles (Thousands)
Carsharing Vehicles & Members (World), 2010-2020
Revenue Generation
The revenue potential of carsharingmarket is expected to be € 7 billion by 2020 in Europe.
Opportunities in Car Sharing 2020: 20% of the vehicles in car sharing are expected to be electric vehicles by 2016 and it is expected to emerge as additional business opportunity for VMs
Members (in Million )
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
17
The Future Is Multi-Modal Commuting, Combining Door to Door Solutions Using Dedicated Mobility Platforms
2020
City
Suburbs
Intercity
TRAVEL DISTANCE
TRAVEL DISTANCEDestination
PublicTransportation
Private Cars
Shared Mobility
Micro-mobility
Intercity Bus
Intercity Train
Shared Mobility
Door to door integrated, multimobility a reality in future
Vehicle manufacturers to offer smart mobility solutions ensuring first and last mile connectivity.
Government to club public transport with bike / two wheeler/car rental schemes
Market will see new players in market termed as “Mobility Integrators ”
CAR OWNERSHIP
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
Personal Rapid Transit
18
Mobility Integrators (MI) – New Players Entering the MarketMIs to Offer Innovative mobility solutions to complement commuters’ inter-modality and multi-modality travel split
The Concept of a Dynamic Transport Solution Integrating Different Modes Under a Single Entity to make Personal Transportation Easy and Simple
MIs will start exploiting the Web 2.0 and Mobile 2.0 Internet service to offer mobility-basedapplications (apps) on smart phones.
*The company logos mentioned are only for descriptive purpose
Mobility Integrator
Transport OperatorsRail Bus
Carsharing
Bikes
Technology Solutions Provider
WEB 2.0WEB 2.0
MOBILE MOBILE 2.02.0
Technology Evolution
Telecom Operators
Online Mobility Booking
Agencies:Long Distance Mobility
Short Distance Urban Mobility
Payment Engine
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
19
•Chip on Driving license
•Chip reader
•Touch screen display
• Key – Card reader
I Phone Apps Normal phone Public information
centre
Car sharing finding options Access Via RFID
CAR SHARING CASE STUDY: Autolib (Paris) to have 100% E vs and are excepted to invest in over 5,000 cars in the comin g two years
Current Situation• Cooperative initiative from the City of Paris• 250 Million Euro investment project, grant of
about 50,000 Euros allocated for each station as one time implementation stage
• 66 cars running on road, 6,000 subscribers to date.
• 00% Electric vehicles - Bluecar from Bollore
Forthcoming plans• 3,000 cars by end of 2012 • 3,500 charging stations by 2012• 80,000 subscribers required to break even• Type 3 charging station to be installed
allowing up to two refills per day per subscriber. Can also be used to charge private vehicles and bikes
• From June 1st 2012, we can expect about 1,100 stations and spaces for about 1440 Bluecars.
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
Autolibstations
(manned)
20
•Use of foldable bikes by on-fieldservice to take the car for charging.
•Charges the car each night or once in two nights based on thecharge available
Two EV Projects ����
Amsterdam and San Diego
•300 EVs in each city
•100% Electric ����Smart
Fortwo ED (Electric Drive)
•Currently 12 Car2go Vehicles
•Fleet of 300 to be implementedby end of 2012
•Currently 250 charging Stations and is expected to increase to 1,000 by 2012
EV Car sharing Amsterdam Micro-Mobility
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
CASE STUDY: Daimler’s car2go car sharing expected to e xpand from 8 cities to around 40 in mid term. Currently 3 cities are 100% EVs
21
Electric Vehicle Charging Station Infrastructure Forecast and Trends
22
United States Germany France
Japan
China
Italy
The United Kingdom
Spain
Australia
SwedenPortugalNorway Demark
Netherlands
No. of charging stations –
7,500
Key participants -Coulomb, Ecotality, Aerovironment
No. of charging stations –
400
Key participants –Chargepoint, Betterplace
No. of charging stations –
160
Key participants - Epyon, Alfen, ABB
No. of charging stations –
720
Key participants Lyse,Ensto, ABB
No. of charging stations –
340
Key participants –MOBI.E
No. of charging stations –
320
Key participants –Elektromotive, Betterplace
No. of charging stations –
240
Key participants –Park & Charge, DBT
No. of charging stations –
1500
Key participants SGCC, CSG, CNOOC
No. of charging stations –
1,100
Key participants –Chademo, etc
No. of charging stations –
960
Key participants Siemens, Park & Charge, Rittal
No. of charging stations –
1,270
Key participants –EDF, Park & charge, Vinci Autoroutes
No. of charging stations –
1,600
Key participants – Podpoint, Elektromotive, Chargemaster
No. of charging stations –
880
Key participants –KEBA AG, Iberdrola, Gamesa
No. of charging stations –
560
Key participants –ENEL, Park & Charge
Global EV public Charging Station Facts- Currently, the charging infrastructure market is highly concentrated in Europe and the Uni ted States - 2011
23
Slow Charging (up to 7 kW) / Semi-fast charging (7- 10/20 kW) Fast Charging Slow charging
Standard / Specifications
Mode 1 „Overnight charging”
Mode 2„Overnight charging”
Mode 3Dedicated EV charging
Mode 4Dedicated EV charging
Inductive chargingDedicated EV charging
Description
On-board charger On-board charger On-board charger Off-board charger
Converts AC mains power to DC high voltage to charge PEV battery.
Converts AC mains power to DC high voltage to charge PEV battery.
Converts AC mains power to DC high voltage to charge PEV battery.
High-voltage, high-current delivered to the vehicle.
Wireless charging using alternating electromagnetic field.
Specifications •Max 16 A•Max 250 V (single-phase)•Max 480 V (three-phase)•Standard socket•3.7-11 kW
•Max 32 A•Max 250 V (single-phase)•Max 480 V (three-phase)•Standard socket•In-cable or in-plug control pilot cable •7.4-22 kW
•Max 32 A / 250 A•Dedicated EVSE•In-cable or in-plug control pilot cable •14.5-43.5 kW
•200-600V (DC)•120-400A•>100kW (currently ~50kW*)
•3.3 kW**
Ability to integrate into smart grid
•No •No •Yes •Yes •Yes
ACEA recommendation
•Not developed •Home charging •Public charging •Home charging•Mode 3 as a uniform solution for EU public charging (planned after 2017)
•Not developed •Not developed
Location •Home •Fleets
•Home (safer version of Mode 1)
•Public charging•Home
•Emergency public charging
•Public charging
Time to recharge (CEV with 16 kW battery)
~4.5 hours(at 3.7 kW)
~2.2 hours(at 7.4 kW)
~1.1 hours(at 14.5 kW)
~20 minutes(at 50 kW)
~4.8 hours(at 3.7 kW)
EV Infrastructure Charging Standards Overview - Europe
Based on IEC 62196 standard and European Commitee for Standarisation, as of June 2011 ftp://ftp.cen.eu/cen/Sectors/List/Transport/Automobile/EV_Report_incl_annexes.pdf
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
24
AC charging connector Standard recommendations - Europe
Europe IEC 62196 - 2
Type 1
Type 2 - German
Type 3 - French
• IEC 62196 – 1 and IEC 62196 – 2 are the two final draft standards by the IEC international standard for electric vehicles, which are nearing completion.
• IEC 62196 – 1 contains the general requirements and IEC 62196 – 2 standardizes type 1, 2 and 3.
•The main supplier for type 2 connector is Mennekes
The main challenge for the type 2 connector is that it lacks the shutter option and in some European countries, according to the National electric codes, electrical installations with electrical contacts need to be shuttered.
IEC 62196 – 2 – type 3 is fully compatible with the national codes in all the European countries for the use on buildings and communication between vehicle to grid. This type is being promoted by “EV Plug Alliance” which was formed between Schneider electric, Legrand, SCAME. Gewiss, Marechal Electric, Radiall, Vimar, Weidmuller France and Yazaki Europe have also joined the EV Plug Alliance.
SCAME is the few of the suppliers who is working on type 3 connectors.
•Five pin contact•Single phase AC•250 V•32A
•Seven pin contact•Single phase AC•250 V•20A/32A/63A/70A•Three phase AC•380V-480V•20A/32A/63A
•Four, five or seven pin contact •Single phase AC•250 V•16A/32A•Three phase•380V-480V•32A
European AC charging connector options
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
25
Europe North America China
•Nine pin contact•750V/250A•The standard is yet awaiting approval
CHAdeMO is a charger interface standard that was developed in Japan.
Toyota, Nissan, Mitsubishi Motors, Fuji Heavy Industries and the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) are the member of the CHAdeMOassociation.
The electrical ratings are as follows :•400VDC/120A•The standard is not approved in North America and Europe
Proposed DC charging connector standards
IEC 62196 - 3 SAE J1772
Working on harmonizing the
combo connectors as the DC contact location and the
control signals are common
•Seven pin contact•600 V•200A
•Nine pin contact•850V•200A
IEC 62196 – 3 is being developed to standardize DC charging as all the vehicles do not comply with the CHAdeMO standard.
It is likely to become a standard in future.
CHAdeMO- Japan
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
26
Material costs Labor costs Other costs Total costs
Level 2 (residential) $1,100-$1,200 $1,000-$1,100 $100 $2,200-$2,400
Level 2 (Commercial fleet )- 5 stations $15,000-$16,000 $2,100-$2,200 $4,000-$4,500 $21,100-$22,700
Level 2 (Public charging station) – 2 $6,500-$7,000 $4,500-$5,000 $4,000-$4,500 $15,000-$16,500
DC charging (Public charging station) – 2 $55,000-$60,000 $7,000-$8,000 $3,000-$3,500 $65,000-$71,500
Inductive Charging $2,000-$4,000 $2,000-$3,000 - $4,000-$7,000
Solar powered charging station (2.5kW-hr) $10,000-$15,000 - - $10,000-$15,000
The cost of different levels of charging stations ex cluding government incentives
Cost incurred in buying and installing the differen t types of charging stations (North America)
27
KEY CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ON EV MARKET
North East of England Electromobility Trials:Switch EV
Myriam NeaimehTransport Operations Research GroupNewcastle University, UK
Brussels, February 2012
Involvement in several electro-mobility projects
• Centre of excellence for low carbon and fuel cell technologies (CENEX)
Smart Move Electric Vehicle TrialAim: investigated the movements and behaviour of electric vehicles
(EVs) incorporated into fleets of local businesses
• EU projectSmartCEM: Smart Connected Electro Mobility4 cities/regions (Barcelona, Gipuzkoa-San Sebastian, Newcastle and Turin)
Newcastle coordinating the operation of the project.
Aim: To demonstrate the role of the Information and Communication technologies (ICT) solutions for cities and citizens in addressing shortcomings of electro mobility.
SWITCH EV
Switch EV Trial• Real-world trial of 44 electric vehicles. • 1 of 8 projects of the Ultra-Low Carbon Vehicle Demonstrator
programme launched by the Technology Strategy Board.
Switch EV consortium
Charging Infrastructure: Plugged in Places
• National programme funded by the Office for Low Emission Vehicles (OLEV)
• NE PiP: 1300 charging points by March 2013
• Public chargers (Streets,Parkings,commercial places), Workplace, Domestic and quick charging points
Charging Infrastructure: Plugged in Places
Already installed:�276 points installed�8 Fast chargers
(provide 50 kW of power)
Charging Infrastructure: EV User membership “Charge Your Car”
• Scheme is a semi-commercial venture
• 100£ annual fee: free electricity +free Parking until March 2013
• Leaflets
Charging Infrastructure:How suited is the North-East for Electric Vehicles?
• What this graph shows is that for over 90% of the time driving in the North East, the EV is within 5km of a charging point.
• The EV is within 15km of a charge point for more than 99% of the time spent driving
Events statistics
Average journey length: 10 km Longest journey: 107 kmAverage journey duration: 15 minTotal journey distance: 129,497 km(Newcastle-Brussels= 610 km:106 return journeys)
Total number of journeys: 12,786Total number of charges: 3520Total energy transferred: 25 MWh
Data from Dec 2010 to Dec 2011
How do we collect and analyse data?Monitor all aspects of vehicle usage. Sec/sec data
•Vehicle data (ignition signal, heater, gear position,etc…)
•battery management data (State of Charge,Energy Transfered)
•GPS and time stamp (Position, time => Distance, Duration)
Location, consumption and regeneration 1
Consumption and regeneration depend not only on the speed and traffic patterns within the journey . . .
. . . but also on the topography of the journey.
Location, consumption and regeneration 2
Identical spatial journeys can reveal more about the specifics of driving electric cars and by analysing the data we can start to think about other conclusions
Different drivers making the same journey
Location, consumption and regeneration 3
Switch EV Participants and soft data collection
• 44 cars lent out in 4 separate periods > 145 organ isations and families for at least 6 month at a time.
• 2 periods so far; >100 individuals driving the cars• Before, during and after surveys and focus groups o f drivers
What do consumers want?
Limited Driving Range and ITS
Theoretical perceived range
Role of Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) in overcoming the limited range barrier:
Intelligent in-vehicle technology (Information and Communication technologies)gives the drivers more information which would expand their perceived range.
Time: 09:57:00
Distance: 61.0m
Av Speed: 22km/h
Av Discharge: 0.32 kwh/km
Traffic: Busy
Total Distance: 61.0m
Topography information(elevation…)
Incorporating traffic and topography information to the EV journey
Time: 09:59:00
Distance: 52.77m
Av Speed: 32.2km/h
Av Discharge: 0.29kwh/km
Traffic: Busy-Smooth
Total Distance: 162..89m
Topography information
Perceived range is
altered by
topography and
traffic . . .
Perceived range depends on information
Now add driver
reaction to feedback
of information on
charging stations
Perceived range depends on information
Perceived range depends on information
Users over-estimate their driving range
On average, how many miles did you complete per trip?
95% of journeys are well within the Battery range
93% of Trips in GB are well within the Battery rang e
Cumulative trips, passenger distance and CO2 emissions from household car journeys by trip length, GB, 2002/2006 average (Source DfT analysis)
New flexible ownership models
Life Cycle cost of EV vs ICE
Would you consider buying an EV? Post trial
Only 13% of AA members said that they “I would seriously consider buying an electric car within the next two years”
Perceptions of EVs
Post trialPre trial Get people to try an EV!
Tracking user recharging behaviour
The Switch EV trials monitor driver recharging behaviour
�Recharging location (home, work, other)�Time of day of recharging events�Energy transferred during recharge
Where are people recharging?
% Energy transferred by location over 24 hour perio d
Why is recharging time important?
‘On-peak’ recharging between
08:00am and 18:00pm, with an
average carbon content of
465gCO2/kWh
‘Off-peak’ recharging
between 00:00am and
06:00am, with an average
carbon content of
364gCO2/kWh
When the vehicles are recharging?Peak recharging: 80gCO2/Km (6km/kWh)
Off-Peak recharging: 60 gCO2/Km
Business models to encourage people to charge at night
What will happen when there are a lot of EV’s and c harging at peak time?
Data:Newcastle UniversityNational GridOffice for National StatisticsENTSO-E
Smarter grids and individual household smart metering is crucial
Summary
Trials are beginning to test and understand consumer charging patterns and behaviour –there will be a need to ‘influence’ this behaviour to manage demand and carbon content
Intelligent Transport Systems aims at informing the driver and at helping to overcome barriers to the EV uptake.
If You want consumers to have a positive perception of EV’s: get them to try one!
Pay as you go …
EV’s pay no road tax, no congestion charge and do not pay fuel duty.
Government will need to re-think how it raises tax from the road transport sector in the future if EV ownership becomes widespread.
Contact / Further InformationMyriam Neaimeh
Switch EVhttp://vehicletrial.switchev.co.uk/
TORG Web: http://www.ceg.ncl.ac.uk/transport/index.htm
TransportNewcastle Web: http://www.ncl.ac.uk/transport/
CONNECTING EUROPE: TEN-T & CEF *
Assuring transport for Europe's citizens & goods- with a special chapter on innovation
& new technologies
Presentation by Helmut Morsi, European Commission Deputy Head of Unit: DG MOVE B1, TEN& Head of Sector: TENtec & Innovation
*CEF = Connecting Europe Facility
Recharging the European Electric Vehicle Market
22 February 2012
The Silken Berlaymont Hotel, Brussels
Transport – lifeblood of the economy
• Transport is fundamental to a strong economy
• Freight transport in Europe is expected to
grow by 80% by 2050
• Passenger transport to grow by more than
50%
• CO2 emissions endeavored to fall by 60 %
• Key: A vitally new infrastructure policy
THE NEW
TRANS-EUROPEAN TRANSPORT NETWORK
A CORE NETWORK: BLUEPRINT FOR 2030
TODAY......• Lacking connections between Member States
• Remaining technical barriers (railway gauge, electrification, control and command systems, traffic management)
• Too many gaps between transport modes (e.g.: only 20 major airports directly connected to the rail network and only 35 major ports well connected to land network)
• Almost ignored intelligent transport solutions across modes
TODAY......
• Bottlenecks, missing links and inefficient capacity management as an obstacle to smooth traffic flows
• Remaining imbalances in infrastructure endowment and, consequently, in access to markets and prosperity
• Inadequate infrastructure connections with neighbouring and other third countries
• Lack of innovation, especially with a view to low carbon technologies
The
patchwork
todayPriority project
sections (passenger
rail) completed by
2010
We need to do better
• The existing patchwork of priority projects will be
replaced by a single European core network
• Core network corridors will effectively boost core
network implementation
• The comprehensive network as “ground layer” to
ensure accessibility and common standards in all
regions
• “core” is just a special label of a comprehensive
network section, which emphasises the elevated
importance of a section for trans-European traffic
flows (-> methodology).
2030
A European core
network (rail)
Boosting investment with the CEF
• 31.7 billion, out of which 10 billion specifically for cohesion countries
• 80 – 85 % for core network corridors, 3 horizontal priorities and other important cross-border sections
• 15 – 20 % for other projects of the core and comprehensive networks
• Innovative financial instruments
• Further 24 billion Euros under the Cohesion Fund
Innovation & new technologies (a)
- TEN-T Guidelines (Proposal) -
• TEN-T Section 7 - Common Provisions
• Art. 39 New technologies and innovation
The comprehensive network shall keep up with state-of-the-art
technological developments and deployments. They shall in particular
aim to:
a) enable the decarbonisation of transport through transition
to innovative transport technologies;
b) enable the decarbonisation of all transport modes by
stimulating energy efficiency as well as the introduction of
alternative propulsion systems and the provision of
corresponding infrastructure. Such infrastructure may
include grids and other facilities necessary for the energy
supply, take account of the infrastructure – vehicle
interface and encompass intelligent transport systems;
c) …. & d) ….
Innovation & new technologies (b)
- TEN-T Guidelines (Proposal) -
• TEN-T Section 7 - Common Provisions
• Art. 39 New technologies and innovation (continued)
e) promote measures to reduce external costs, such as pollution
of any kind, including noise, congestion and health damage;
f) …
g) improve resilience to climate change;
h) further advance the development and deployment of
intelligent transport systems within and between modes of
transport.
Innovation & new technologies (c)
- Connecting Europe Facility (transport) -
• CEF Art 10 – Funding Rates (Grants)
– Studies for all modes : up to 50%
– Works for rail & IWW : up to 20 to 40%
– Inland transport connections to ports & airports and devel. of ports &
MMPs : up to 20%
– Traffic management systems & services
• Rail - ERTMS : up to 50%
• Road Core Network – traffic manag. sys., freight serv. & secure parkings :
up to 20%
• Motorways of the Seas – development : up to 20%
EU 27 Member statesRoads, ports, rail-road terminals and airports
TEN-T Annual Call 2012
Priority 2a: Studies and preparation of deployment projects
contributing to mitigation and adaptation to climate change
(GHG emissions).• Scope and objective: support sustainable passenger and freight transport in the
EU
– Studies with integrated pilot deployment
– Transport infrastructure and facilities
– On TEN-T network
– Introduction and use of new technologies, in particular using alternative fuels
– Market-sided innovation
– All modes of transport
• Focus: Only new technologies ready for deployment, with initial results by the end of 2013. - no research!
TEN-T Annual Call 2012Political Objective taken from Workprogramme (legal base for call)
• Only proven new technologies will be considered under this priority, with the
objective of testing them and providing initial results by the end of 2013.
• The final objective is to enable policy-makers, EU citizens and industry to
understand and decide which technologies have the highest potential for rapid
deployment across the EU.
• Since such deployment would happen at EU level, particular attention will be
given to the European added value, such as the swift harmonisation of
(minimum) standards and the swift creation of critical mass in the EU.
TEN-T Annual Call 2012Financial Support of EU
• EU contribution 1 to 5 million €, except in duly justified cases
• Up to 50% of eligible costs.
• Legal persons of private or public law inside EU27
• Call Deadline: 13 April 2012http://tentea.ec.europa.eu/en/apply_for_funding/follow_the_funding_process/annual_call_2011.htm
TEN-T Annual Call 2012Lessons Learnt from last call
• Annual TEN-T call in 2010
• 6 innovation projects received, only 1 selected
• Main reason for rejection:
– Lack of maturity
– Research (ineligible !)
– Not focussed on transport (relevance)
Thank you for your attention.