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Electric vehicle market An energy perspective Lénaïc Georgelin European Commission, DG Research & Innovation Energy conversion & distribution systems “Recharging the European Electric Vehicle Market”, Brussels, 22/02/2012

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Page 1: Presentation ev bruxelles

Electric vehicle market An energy perspective

Lénaïc GeorgelinEuropean Commission, DG Research & InnovationEnergy conversion & distribution systems

“Recharging the European Electric Vehicle Market”, Brussels, 22/02/2012

Page 2: Presentation ev bruxelles

The policy framework

• 2007 – Climate & Energy policy: 20-20-20 / Roadmap 2050

• 2008 - European Strategic Energy Technologies Plan – SET Plan

• 2009 - 3rd internal energy market package

• 2011 - Energy efficiency directive

• 2011 - 2050 Energy Roadmap

• 2011 - Strategic Transport Technology Plan

• 2011 - Communication on clean transport systems

• 2011 - Transport White Paper – 2050 perspective

Page 3: Presentation ev bruxelles

The main energy challenges

TodayTomorrow:- More renewable/distributed energyore renewable/distributed energy

-- Security of Supply Security of Supply -- CompetitivenessCompetitiveness

-- PanPan--European NetworkEuropean Network

-> Smart Grids

Page 4: Presentation ev bruxelles

Energy challenges and electro-mobility

Transformer

CP = Charging PoleCS = Connecting SleeveTSO = Transmission System OperatorDSO = Distribution System Operator

Power Producer TSO DSO

MeteringPointkWh

RetailerEnergy Trader

Public Area

Distribution Grid

Transmission GridPower Plant

CP

CS

MeasurementData

Accounting Data

Payment(energy incl. grid usage fee)

Grid UsageFee

Grid Usage Fee/Balancing Energy

Payment (energy)Payment (energy)

Power

Data Flow

Monetary Flow

Customer (EV)

Page 5: Presentation ev bruxelles

Energy challenges and electro-mobility

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 25 49 73 97 121 145

GW

Time (hours)

Non-optimised EV charging Net demand

Net demand =

Non EV demand - Wind

Non-optimized charging

EV Charging coinciding with peak demand periods

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 25 49 73 97 121 145

GW

Time (hours)

Optimised EV charging (MW) Net demand

Net demand =

Non EV demand - Wind

EV Charging optimized during low demand periods

Optimized charging (unidirectional)

A peak demand week in December(100% EV penetration)

Source: G4V project

Page 6: Presentation ev bruxelles

Main framework: smart-grid, EV & research

SET Plan European Electricity Grids Initiative

• 2010-2018 Roadmap for

smart grid RD&D

• 2010-2012 Implementation

plan

• R&D budget: €2 billion

• Contains the functional

project ” Integration of

electric vehicles”, with R&D

cost estimate of 100 M€.

Page 7: Presentation ev bruxelles

Main framework: smart-grid, EV & research

European Green Car Initiative (EGCI)

• PPP from recovery package (2008-9)

• European roadmap for electrification of road transport

• R&D budget: €1 billion (€500 million from FP7 matched by a similar amount from industry and Member States)

• EIB loans: €4 billion (additional amount for 2009-2010)

Page 8: Presentation ev bruxelles

Project – G4V• Development of an analytical method to assess the impact of the

mass introduction of EV and PHEV on the electricity grids

• Recommendations for technological upgrading of the grid infrastructure and related ICT system solutions for grid management

• Recommendations for policy makers to foster electric mobility (regulations and incentives)

• Identification of business opportunities for different stakeholders groups

• Elaboration of standardisation proposals => Joint European Approach

• Definition of future required RTD activities and projects

12 partners

8 countries

Total budget 3.8M€

http://www.g4v.eu/index.html

Page 9: Presentation ev bruxelles

Project – MERGE

• Development of a management and control concept to facilitate the transition from conventional to electric

vehicles

• Adoption of an evaluation tools to model, analyze, and optimize electric networks for EV integration

• Assessment of Dispersed Energy Resources (DER) deployment in electro-mobility

18 partners

8 countries

Total budget 4.4M€

http://www.ev-merge.eu/

Page 10: Presentation ev bruxelles

Deploying electric vehicles: some conclusions

• New grid planning and operations tools necessary

• Smart charging of paramount important (ICT key enabler)

• Slow/home charging preferred short-term option

• Fast/public charging important for range anxiety

• Possible need for local grid reinforcement

• Standardisation and interoperability needed

• New business models / regulation required

• V2G business case for longer-term

• Deployment of smart charging offers opportunity- to store renewable energy…

… to avoid curtailment of intermittent generation capacity

Page 11: Presentation ev bruxelles

• DG Research & Innovation:Energy:

ec.europa.eu/research/energy/

Transport:

ec.europa.eu/research/transport/

• European Electricity Grid Initiativewww.smartgrids.eu/node/20

• European Green Car Initiativewww.green-cars-initiative.eu

More information

Page 12: Presentation ev bruxelles

Boosting the EV market in Europe

Consumer Acceptance, New Business Models and Value Chains

Page 13: Presentation ev bruxelles

Boosting the EV market in Europe

Chairman’s Opening Remarks

Page 14: Presentation ev bruxelles

3

4

5

6

1

2

3

2011 Overview: Did Not Live Up To Its Hype But Soli d Foundation Was Laid For Coming Years

Sales of Electric Vehicles were lower than expected due to the delay in launches and Japan’s earthquake

Vehicle Manufacturers have increased technology/mar ket partnerships for progressing into EV launch phase – There were more than 5 joint ventures by major OEMs in 2011

Federal Governments providing new subsidies to EV a nd implementing - More than 9 regions announced incentives for EVs in 2011

More governments extending benefits to EVs and VMs ex panding markets - Plug-car grant has been extended until 2015

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis

There were approximately 14 Electric Vehicles laun ched globally in 2011 despite low sales

Implementation of charging infrastructure has gath ered pace - Chademo type quick charging stations has increased to about 950 global ly

Page 15: Presentation ev bruxelles

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EuropeNorth America

APAC

Electric Vehicle Market: Electric Vehicle Sales (Wo rld), 2011

Global Electric Vehicle sales until December 2011 has been about 43,000 vehicles

Non-traditional

VMs36%

Traditional VMs64%

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis

Page 16: Presentation ev bruxelles

5

>500

200-500

<200

•More than 7,000 public charging stations have been installed between 2010/11 globally, about 3,800 in USA

•In 2010, the EV project was launched in North America which is working towards deploying 14,000 level 2 and 400 DC fast charging stations across North America by 2013.They will be deployed in six states and District of Columbia and across 18 major and metropolitan cities.

Implementation of charging infrastructure has gath ered pace -Chademo type quick charging stations has increased to about 950 globally. 400 installed in 2011, out of which 120 were installed in Europe

Leading states of EVs Charging Infrastructure U.S.A, 2011

1. United Kingdom

2. France

3. Germany

4. Scandinavia

5. Spain

6. Italy

7. Portugal

8. Netherlands

9. Sweden

10. Austria

Top 10 Countries for EVs Charging Infrastructure Eur ope, 2011

1. Arizona

2. California

3. District of

Columbia

4. Florida

5. Hawaii

6. Michigan

7. New York

8. Oregon

9. Tennessee

10. Texas

11. Washington

High

Medium

Low

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis

Page 17: Presentation ev bruxelles

6

Belgium Vehicle powered by electric motors exclusively rece ive 30% reduction with a maximum of €9,190.

Electric vehicles pay the lowest rate of tax under the registration tax (€ 61.50) and under annual circ ulation tax(€ 71.28).

Benefit in kind for the private use of a zero emiss ion vehicle as a company car is taxed at the lowest rate (€500- €750).

Portugal Purchasers of electric vehicles receive a p remium of €5,000 (limited to 5,000 vehicles).

Electric vehicles are exempt from registration tax ISV and annual circulation tax.

Turkey Reduction of special consumption tax accordin g to the motor power (< 85kW – 3%, >85<125kW – 7%, >1 25kW – 15%).

India Indian government has announced 20% incentive on the cost of the electric vehicle. For two-wheeler s it is maximum up to

Rs.5,000 and electric cars Rs.100,000

Spain Regional governments will provide grant incent ives between €2,000 - €7,000 for electric, hybrid, f uel cell, CNG and LPG vehicles.

Ireland Electric vehicles will receive benefit from VRT relief of maximum €5,000.

Romania Electric cars will be exempt for the special pollution tax.

Exempt from registration tax.

Estonia50% reduction in electric vehicles priced up to €18 ,000 and €1,000 on installation of residential char ging station.

IsraelTax incentive with only 10% purchase tax on electri c vehicles compared with 90% on regular cars .

Federal Governments providing new subsidies to EV – More than 9 regions announced incentives for EVs in 2011

Belgium, India, Estonia, Portugal , Turkey are some of the countries who have announced fresh incentives /subsidiesto EVs Countries like UK, Ireland and Romania has started implementing subsidies in 2011, while Spain increased the

maximum incentive from €6,000 to €7,000.

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis

Page 18: Presentation ev bruxelles

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More governments extending benefits to EVs and VMs expa nding markets – Plug-car grant has been extended until 2015 and including vans for 20% incentive up to £8,000

East of England

Northern Ireland

Midlands

North East

Scotland

LondonMilton Keynes

Greater Manchester

The plugged in places program in the UK was extended to 8 regions in 2011and formulated a strategy for execution

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis

Plugged-in

Places Project

The program tenders matched funding to businesses and public sector to support installation of electric vehicle charging stations across the United Kingdom.

Plug in Car

GrantThe grant provides 25% funding to electric

vehicles up to £5,000 and 20% or maximum

£8,000 to vans. It has been extended until 2015.

Office of Low Emission Vehicle (OLEV) funds

It is concerned with ultra-low emission vehicles

and has been established to manage and fund

the various programs such as plugged-in

places, plug in car and van grant.

The electric vehicle initiative launched by the clean energy ministerial office, seeks to facilitate the global deployment of electric vehicles. The members of the initiative include China, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, India, Japan, Portugal, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, the United States, and the United Kingdom.

Page 19: Presentation ev bruxelles

Boosting the EV market in Europe

Panel Session 2:

The Role of the EV Market in Boosting Consumer Adoption

Page 20: Presentation ev bruxelles

2

Global EV Market Size and Forecasts Plus EU Focus

Page 21: Presentation ev bruxelles

3

Global Electric Vehicle Demand Analysis – Potential Sales of 2.2 M in F&S Scenario by 2017

Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan

Electric Vehicle Market: Sales Forecasts Scenario A nalysis (World), 2009-2017

Scenario’s 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2020(% of

Total Car Sales)

Optimistic 5,060 16,100 43,200 248,400 816,200 1,373,200 2,094,800 2,865,200 3,531,500 10-12%

Frost & Sullivan 5,060 16,100 43,200 110,100 286,500 735,800 1,314,300 1,741,000 2,228,400 5-7%

Conservative 5,060 16,100 43,200 66,500 178,600 318,300 451,000 602,400 796,800 2-4%

Page 22: Presentation ev bruxelles

4

60%

38%

2%

69%

22%

2%1%

6%

46%

38%

4%2%

10%

70%

3%

13%

14%

EV Breakdown By Region – CEVs to Account for 69% Share In Europe; NA to Witness More PHEVs with a 38% Share

2011

43,200

56%

13%2%

26%

3%

2.2 Million

59%

29%

4%1%

2017

7%

• eREV and PHEVs likely to account major share in the N orth American market driven by the virtue of demographics and customer driving characteristics => GM for eREVs. On the other hand, CEVs suit the demographics for the Europe.

Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010 Source: Frost & Sullivan

Electric Vehicle Market: EV Breakdown By Region – Sa les Estimates (World), 2017

Page 23: Presentation ev bruxelles

5

Country Type of incentive in 2010 and 2011

Austria • €5000 rebate if vehicle charged with green electricity, €2500 with conventional electricity

• Exemption from vehicle tax

Belgium • Vehicle powered by electric motors exclusively receive 30% reduction with a maximum of €9,190.

• Electric vehicles pay the lowest rate of tax under the registration tax (€ 61.50) and under annual circulation

tax(€ 71.28).

• Benefit in kind for the private use of a zero emission vehicle as a company car is taxed at the lowest rate

(€500- €750).

Denmark • No registration tax and owner tax

• No “green ownership fee”

France • €5000 rebate

• No registration fee

Netherlands • Exemption from car tax

• No registration tax

Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Market : G overnment initiative towards deployment of Electric Vehicles

Exemption in registration and car tax is the most co mmon type ofincentive offered

Page 24: Presentation ev bruxelles

6

Electric Vehicle Market: Planned Electric Vehicle P roduct Offerings, Global, 2010–2017

Mic

roca

rs(Q

uadr

icyc

lean

d S

ub-A

)

A

C

B

2011 20132010 2012 Future (till 2017)

G-WizREVA

BUDDYPure mobility

Mega CityAixam Mega

YDEAMicro Vett

FriendlyHeuliez

C-Zero PSACity Th!nk

I0n PSA

MiniEBMW

LeafNissanVolt

Chevrolet

Twizy Z.E.Renault

Microcar ZENN

i-MiEVMitsubishi

Indica VistaEV TATA

Li – Car REVA

A-Class E-Cell Daimler

ED Smart

Model X Miles/Coda

Fluence Z.E.Renault

E-up!VW

NXRREVA

PX iMiEVMitsubishi

Zoe Z.E. Renault i10 BlueonHyundai

Honda Fit EV

E46 DetroitElectricE63 Detroit

Electric

Blue-will PHEVHyundaii

C-Max EnergiFord

Focus Ford

Nina PHEV Fisker?

F3DM BYD

Ampera Opel

NXGREVA

iQ basedToyota 500 EV

Fiat

A1 e-tron Audi A2 e-tronAudi

B0 basedPininfarina Re1 Fuji Heavy

MegaCityBMW

Golf blue-e-motion

VW

C4 based PSA Jetta VW 200C Sedan

Chrysler

RAV4 EV Toyota

Leon Twin DriveSeat

Nano EVTATA

JouleOptimal Energy

IBE conceptSEAT BlueOn

Hyundai

WILLHeuliez

C30 DRIVeVolvo

Octavia GreenE Line Škoda

Model X Honda

Hatchback Infiniti

Ray PHEVKIA

?

10

18

7

22

57

Electric Vehicle Product Launches Global: C-Segment vehicle launches are critical, with about 19 models to be launched between 2012 and 2017

Note: This is an indicative list rather not meant to be exhaustive

Page 25: Presentation ev bruxelles

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Electric Vehicle Product Launches Globally: About 18 sports cars to be launched by 2017

Electric Vehicle Market: Planned Electric Vehicle P roduct Offerings, Global, 2010–2017

2011 20132010 2012 Future (till 2017)

Sports

MPV

LCV

D

Roadster TeslaLightning GT

Fetish Venturi

Ram PHEVDodge

BerlingoElectric

PSA

Partner Electric

PSA

Model STesla

VerdeRevenge

Vito E-CellDaimler Transit Ford

MiniCab MIEV Mitsubishi

SUVPhoenix Motors

V70 PHEV Volvo

e6BYD

X1Wrightspeed

Karma PHEV Fisker Auto

Sport Greentech Auto

Elise ElectricLotus

V60 Electric Volvo

KangooExpress Z.E.

Renault

Solo SUVVelozzi

?

PX-iMiEV Mitsubishi

Model X GM

Sonata Hyundai

SurvoltPSA

Luxury EV Infiniti

9.3 CabrioTrue ElectricSaab

Sports car BMW

Orlando PHEVChevrolet

Denki Cube EV Nissan

9-3 ePower Sports Estate Saab

Minivan ShuttleZAP

XJ PHEVJaguar

i8/ActiveE BMW

PassatVW

OpenTh!nk

R4 Electric Roadster Audi

911 GT3R Electric Porsche

R8 Audi

C-X75Jaguar

M Class Daimler

7

9

18

7

41Note: This is an indicative list rather not meant to be exhaustive

Page 26: Presentation ev bruxelles

8

Hybrid & Electric MCV and HCV Production by Drivetr ain (Global): Combined Hybrid+Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus and Other Bus Production to Reach 307K by 2020

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

2009 2020

Pro

duct

ion

Uni

ts

Series-Parallel Parallel Series Electric Total Units:307,858

Total Units:6,934

2020 Unit Shares

North America Brazil Rest of America

Western Europe

Russia Rest of Europe

China Korea Japan India Rest of Asia

Americas 2020

EMEA 2020

Asia 2020

132,859

10,9215,962

30,487

10,623

4,503

52,584

14,277

26,82516,869

1,948

Americas53% Europe

13%

Asia34%

Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010.

EMEA15%

Asia37%

Americas48%

Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit and Other Bus Market: Production Volume Forecast by Drivetrain (W orld), 2009-2020

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis

Page 27: Presentation ev bruxelles

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The Overview of Potential Business Models in Europe: Outright Sales and leasing concept preferred by key players

Outright Purchase Price

Vauxhall AmperaNissan LeafBusiness Model

Basic Business Packages

Warranty Conditions

• GB£30,990 (before rebate, incl. VAT)

PSA C-Zero iMEV

1. Outright Purchase

• Basic - 3 yrs unlimited miles

• EV components – 5 yrs

• Roadside assistance – 3 yrs

• Anti – corrosion perforation – 8 yrs

• £37,250 (Before rebate, incl. VAT)

• £28,990 (Before rebate, inl. VAT)

1. Outright Purchase

1. Outright Purchase

2. Leasing

£ 319 month for 36 months

£ 215 contract hire for 60 months

6 rentals payable in advance

• Basic – Lifetime up to 100,000 miles

• Battery/electric propulsion – 8 yrs/100,000 miles

• Anti-perforation corrosion – 6 yrs

• Vauxhall assistance – 1 yr

2. Leasing plan available, amount to be announced

2. Leasing

£ 299 for four years and 40,000 miles contract

• Basic – 2 yrs dealers and 6 yrs by manufacturer

• Drivetrain – 3 yrs dealers and 5 yrs by manufacturer

• Full servicing and maintenance for 4 yrs

1. Outright Purchase

• £33,155 (Before rebate, incl. VAT)

• Basic – 3 yrs/60,000 miles

• EV components – 5 yrs/60,000 miles

• Roadside assistance– 3 yrs

• Anti-corrosion – 12 yrs

• Paint – 3 yrs

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis

Page 28: Presentation ev bruxelles

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Business Model TWIZY FLUENCE Z.E.

Outright Purchase Price

Basic Business Packages

Warranty Conditions

• £6,690 (inc. VAT)

1. Outright Purchase

2. Leasing

£40 for 36 months for battery lease.

2. Leasing

£69.60/month for battery lease inc. VAT*

£17,850 (inc. VAT*)

(after £5,000 incentive)

1. Outright Purchase

1. Outright Purchase

2. Leasing

£62 for 48 months for battery lease.

Renault-Nissan likely to be the first OEM to sell a complete range of electric vehicles including light commercial electric vehicles

• £16,990 (exc. VAT)

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis

Kangoo Z.E

Expected launch date

Est. annual sales (Europe)

Launch Markets

March 2012

United Kingdom

Launched - October 2011

Europe

Launched - November 2011

Israel

800-1,000 units (Europe) 1,000-1,200 units (Europe) 5 ,000-6,000 units (Europe)

• Vehicle – 5yrs/ unlimited mileage

• Electric motor – 5 years /100,000 km

Zoe Z.E.

Expected price -£14,000 (inc. VAT* after incentives)

1. Outright Purchase

• Vehicle – 5yrs/ unlimited mileage

• Electric motor – 5 years /100,000 km

• Vehicle – 5yrs/ unlimited mileage

• Electric motor – 5 years /100,000 km

• Vehicle – 5yrs/ unlimited mileage

• Electric motor – 3 years /unlimited mileage

September 2011

1,000-1,200 units (Europe)

Europe

2. Leasing (Expected) £65 for 48 months for battery lease.

Page 29: Presentation ev bruxelles

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CAGR : 85%

Uni

ts (

In 0

00’s

)

European Electric Vehicle Market – A and C segment vehicles estimated to capture 35% and 40% of the total European car parc respectively for EV by 2018

Van Derived EV’s interesting for business fleets catering to deliveries, utilities etc.

35%

40%

6%1%

3%

14%

Strong competition expected from Mitsubishi iMEV, Toyota iQ, Peugoet iON, VW UP and Renault ZE

Mass manufacturers like Nissan with their Leaf, Renault Fluence, Opel Ampere, Toyota Prius will cater to this segment

Electric Vehicle Market: Sales Volumes by EV Segm ent (Europe), 2011 -2018

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis

Page 30: Presentation ev bruxelles

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Mega Trends Influencing EV Market Development

Page 31: Presentation ev bruxelles

13

New Micro Mobility products

E-MobilityUrbanization Mega and Smart Cities

Car Sharing/Car Pooling

Integrated Mobility Solutions

Sustainable Public Transportation and

BRT

New Business Models (Value for Many)

Geo-SocializationAnd Social Media

Connected and Wireless Planet

High Speed Rail Gen Y

Global Mega Trends Impacting Mobility in the Future

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis

Page 32: Presentation ev bruxelles

14

Treasure Island

Boulder

ArcosantiCoyote Springs

Destiny

Babcock Ranch

Vancouver

Toronto

San Francisco

PortlandSeattle

Curitiba

Montreal

Bogota

St Davids

Clonburris

Göteborg

Hammarby Sjöstad

London

Barcelona

Reykjavik Oslo

Freiburg

Stockholm

Paris

Copenhagen

Kochi

GIFT

Cape Town

Pune

Dongtan

Tianjin

Changsha

KhajurahoMeixi Lake

Waitakere, N.Z.

Singapore City

Songdo

Moreland, Australia

Amsterdam

Masdar

Cities built from scratch

Existing eco cities

Existing eco megacities

Legend

SMART Cities Globally : Over 40 Global Cities to be SMART Cities in 2020 and over 150 Cities Globally to be Eco city/Sustainable cities by 2020, leading EV Implementation

Note: The images are used only for representation.Image Source: Google Images

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis

Page 33: Presentation ev bruxelles

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Future Innovation in Mobility – The electric powertrain will embrace all the new mobility solutions

Technology Innovation

Traffic Prediction system

Parking Search assistance

Cashless Payment

Wild Innovation

Mobility Integration

New Mobility Products

Motorized Mover

Two seated Electric Car

Improvement

Micro cars

Electric Cars

Electric Bikes

Application Innovation

Car Sharing

Car Pooling

Bike Sharing

Unknown

Solutions

Known

Solutions

Met needs Unmet needsSource: Frost & Sullivan analysis

Page 34: Presentation ev bruxelles

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Worldwide 32 Million subscriptions

expected by 2020

Usage of Electric Vehicle

By 2016, 1 in 5 vehicles of the carsharing vehicle fleet is expected to be a battery powered EV.

Member

Carsharing subscriber base to be 14 Million in EU by 2020

Vehicle

200,000 shared vehicles expected in

Europe by 2020

Potential Market

France, United Kingdom, Germany and Switzerland to hold around 75 per cent of Revenue Share in 2016.

Vehicles (Thousands)

Carsharing Vehicles & Members (World), 2010-2020

Revenue Generation

The revenue potential of carsharingmarket is expected to be € 7 billion by 2020 in Europe.

Opportunities in Car Sharing 2020: 20% of the vehicles in car sharing are expected to be electric vehicles by 2016 and it is expected to emerge as additional business opportunity for VMs

Members (in Million )

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis

Page 35: Presentation ev bruxelles

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The Future Is Multi-Modal Commuting, Combining Door to Door Solutions Using Dedicated Mobility Platforms

2020

City

Suburbs

Intercity

TRAVEL DISTANCE

TRAVEL DISTANCEDestination

PublicTransportation

Private Cars

Shared Mobility

Micro-mobility

Intercity Bus

Intercity Train

Shared Mobility

Door to door integrated, multimobility a reality in future

Vehicle manufacturers to offer smart mobility solutions ensuring first and last mile connectivity.

Government to club public transport with bike / two wheeler/car rental schemes

Market will see new players in market termed as “Mobility Integrators ”

CAR OWNERSHIP

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis

Personal Rapid Transit

Page 36: Presentation ev bruxelles

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Mobility Integrators (MI) – New Players Entering the MarketMIs to Offer Innovative mobility solutions to complement commuters’ inter-modality and multi-modality travel split

The Concept of a Dynamic Transport Solution Integrating Different Modes Under a Single Entity to make Personal Transportation Easy and Simple

MIs will start exploiting the Web 2.0 and Mobile 2.0 Internet service to offer mobility-basedapplications (apps) on smart phones.

*The company logos mentioned are only for descriptive purpose

Mobility Integrator

Transport OperatorsRail Bus

Carsharing

Bikes

Technology Solutions Provider

WEB 2.0WEB 2.0

MOBILE MOBILE 2.02.0

Technology Evolution

Telecom Operators

Online Mobility Booking

Agencies:Long Distance Mobility

Short Distance Urban Mobility

Payment Engine

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis

Page 37: Presentation ev bruxelles

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•Chip on Driving license

•Chip reader

•Touch screen display

• Key – Card reader

I Phone Apps Normal phone Public information

centre

Car sharing finding options Access Via RFID

CAR SHARING CASE STUDY: Autolib (Paris) to have 100% E vs and are excepted to invest in over 5,000 cars in the comin g two years

Current Situation• Cooperative initiative from the City of Paris• 250 Million Euro investment project, grant of

about 50,000 Euros allocated for each station as one time implementation stage

• 66 cars running on road, 6,000 subscribers to date.

• 00% Electric vehicles - Bluecar from Bollore

Forthcoming plans• 3,000 cars by end of 2012 • 3,500 charging stations by 2012• 80,000 subscribers required to break even• Type 3 charging station to be installed

allowing up to two refills per day per subscriber. Can also be used to charge private vehicles and bikes

• From June 1st 2012, we can expect about 1,100 stations and spaces for about 1440 Bluecars.

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis

Autolibstations

(manned)

Page 38: Presentation ev bruxelles

20

•Use of foldable bikes by on-fieldservice to take the car for charging.

•Charges the car each night or once in two nights based on thecharge available

Two EV Projects ����

Amsterdam and San Diego

•300 EVs in each city

•100% Electric ����Smart

Fortwo ED (Electric Drive)

•Currently 12 Car2go Vehicles

•Fleet of 300 to be implementedby end of 2012

•Currently 250 charging Stations and is expected to increase to 1,000 by 2012

EV Car sharing Amsterdam Micro-Mobility

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis

CASE STUDY: Daimler’s car2go car sharing expected to e xpand from 8 cities to around 40 in mid term. Currently 3 cities are 100% EVs

Page 39: Presentation ev bruxelles

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Electric Vehicle Charging Station Infrastructure Forecast and Trends

Page 40: Presentation ev bruxelles

22

United States Germany France

Japan

China

Italy

The United Kingdom

Spain

Australia

SwedenPortugalNorway Demark

Netherlands

No. of charging stations –

7,500

Key participants -Coulomb, Ecotality, Aerovironment

No. of charging stations –

400

Key participants –Chargepoint, Betterplace

No. of charging stations –

160

Key participants - Epyon, Alfen, ABB

No. of charging stations –

720

Key participants Lyse,Ensto, ABB

No. of charging stations –

340

Key participants –MOBI.E

No. of charging stations –

320

Key participants –Elektromotive, Betterplace

No. of charging stations –

240

Key participants –Park & Charge, DBT

No. of charging stations –

1500

Key participants SGCC, CSG, CNOOC

No. of charging stations –

1,100

Key participants –Chademo, etc

No. of charging stations –

960

Key participants Siemens, Park & Charge, Rittal

No. of charging stations –

1,270

Key participants –EDF, Park & charge, Vinci Autoroutes

No. of charging stations –

1,600

Key participants – Podpoint, Elektromotive, Chargemaster

No. of charging stations –

880

Key participants –KEBA AG, Iberdrola, Gamesa

No. of charging stations –

560

Key participants –ENEL, Park & Charge

Global EV public Charging Station Facts- Currently, the charging infrastructure market is highly concentrated in Europe and the Uni ted States - 2011

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Slow Charging (up to 7 kW) / Semi-fast charging (7- 10/20 kW) Fast Charging Slow charging

Standard / Specifications

Mode 1 „Overnight charging”

Mode 2„Overnight charging”

Mode 3Dedicated EV charging

Mode 4Dedicated EV charging

Inductive chargingDedicated EV charging

Description

On-board charger On-board charger On-board charger Off-board charger

Converts AC mains power to DC high voltage to charge PEV battery.

Converts AC mains power to DC high voltage to charge PEV battery.

Converts AC mains power to DC high voltage to charge PEV battery.

High-voltage, high-current delivered to the vehicle.

Wireless charging using alternating electromagnetic field.

Specifications •Max 16 A•Max 250 V (single-phase)•Max 480 V (three-phase)•Standard socket•3.7-11 kW

•Max 32 A•Max 250 V (single-phase)•Max 480 V (three-phase)•Standard socket•In-cable or in-plug control pilot cable •7.4-22 kW

•Max 32 A / 250 A•Dedicated EVSE•In-cable or in-plug control pilot cable •14.5-43.5 kW

•200-600V (DC)•120-400A•>100kW (currently ~50kW*)

•3.3 kW**

Ability to integrate into smart grid

•No •No •Yes •Yes •Yes

ACEA recommendation

•Not developed •Home charging •Public charging •Home charging•Mode 3 as a uniform solution for EU public charging (planned after 2017)

•Not developed •Not developed

Location •Home •Fleets

•Home (safer version of Mode 1)

•Public charging•Home

•Emergency public charging

•Public charging

Time to recharge (CEV with 16 kW battery)

~4.5 hours(at 3.7 kW)

~2.2 hours(at 7.4 kW)

~1.1 hours(at 14.5 kW)

~20 minutes(at 50 kW)

~4.8 hours(at 3.7 kW)

EV Infrastructure Charging Standards Overview - Europe

Based on IEC 62196 standard and European Commitee for Standarisation, as of June 2011 ftp://ftp.cen.eu/cen/Sectors/List/Transport/Automobile/EV_Report_incl_annexes.pdf

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis

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AC charging connector Standard recommendations - Europe

Europe IEC 62196 - 2

Type 1

Type 2 - German

Type 3 - French

• IEC 62196 – 1 and IEC 62196 – 2 are the two final draft standards by the IEC international standard for electric vehicles, which are nearing completion.

• IEC 62196 – 1 contains the general requirements and IEC 62196 – 2 standardizes type 1, 2 and 3.

•The main supplier for type 2 connector is Mennekes

The main challenge for the type 2 connector is that it lacks the shutter option and in some European countries, according to the National electric codes, electrical installations with electrical contacts need to be shuttered.

IEC 62196 – 2 – type 3 is fully compatible with the national codes in all the European countries for the use on buildings and communication between vehicle to grid. This type is being promoted by “EV Plug Alliance” which was formed between Schneider electric, Legrand, SCAME. Gewiss, Marechal Electric, Radiall, Vimar, Weidmuller France and Yazaki Europe have also joined the EV Plug Alliance.

SCAME is the few of the suppliers who is working on type 3 connectors.

•Five pin contact•Single phase AC•250 V•32A

•Seven pin contact•Single phase AC•250 V•20A/32A/63A/70A•Three phase AC•380V-480V•20A/32A/63A

•Four, five or seven pin contact •Single phase AC•250 V•16A/32A•Three phase•380V-480V•32A

European AC charging connector options

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis

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25

Europe North America China

•Nine pin contact•750V/250A•The standard is yet awaiting approval

CHAdeMO is a charger interface standard that was developed in Japan.

Toyota, Nissan, Mitsubishi Motors, Fuji Heavy Industries and the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) are the member of the CHAdeMOassociation.

The electrical ratings are as follows :•400VDC/120A•The standard is not approved in North America and Europe

Proposed DC charging connector standards

IEC 62196 - 3 SAE J1772

Working on harmonizing the

combo connectors as the DC contact location and the

control signals are common

•Seven pin contact•600 V•200A

•Nine pin contact•850V•200A

IEC 62196 – 3 is being developed to standardize DC charging as all the vehicles do not comply with the CHAdeMO standard.

It is likely to become a standard in future.

CHAdeMO- Japan

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis

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Material costs Labor costs Other costs Total costs

Level 2 (residential) $1,100-$1,200 $1,000-$1,100 $100 $2,200-$2,400

Level 2 (Commercial fleet )- 5 stations $15,000-$16,000 $2,100-$2,200 $4,000-$4,500 $21,100-$22,700

Level 2 (Public charging station) – 2 $6,500-$7,000 $4,500-$5,000 $4,000-$4,500 $15,000-$16,500

DC charging (Public charging station) – 2 $55,000-$60,000 $7,000-$8,000 $3,000-$3,500 $65,000-$71,500

Inductive Charging $2,000-$4,000 $2,000-$3,000 - $4,000-$7,000

Solar powered charging station (2.5kW-hr) $10,000-$15,000 - - $10,000-$15,000

The cost of different levels of charging stations ex cluding government incentives

Cost incurred in buying and installing the differen t types of charging stations (North America)

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27

KEY CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ON EV MARKET

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North East of England Electromobility Trials:Switch EV

Myriam NeaimehTransport Operations Research GroupNewcastle University, UK

Brussels, February 2012

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Involvement in several electro-mobility projects

• Centre of excellence for low carbon and fuel cell technologies (CENEX)

Smart Move Electric Vehicle TrialAim: investigated the movements and behaviour of electric vehicles

(EVs) incorporated into fleets of local businesses

• EU projectSmartCEM: Smart Connected Electro Mobility4 cities/regions (Barcelona, Gipuzkoa-San Sebastian, Newcastle and Turin)

Newcastle coordinating the operation of the project.

Aim: To demonstrate the role of the Information and Communication technologies (ICT) solutions for cities and citizens in addressing shortcomings of electro mobility.

SWITCH EV

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Switch EV Trial• Real-world trial of 44 electric vehicles. • 1 of 8 projects of the Ultra-Low Carbon Vehicle Demonstrator

programme launched by the Technology Strategy Board.

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Switch EV consortium

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Charging Infrastructure: Plugged in Places

• National programme funded by the Office for Low Emission Vehicles (OLEV)

• NE PiP: 1300 charging points by March 2013

• Public chargers (Streets,Parkings,commercial places), Workplace, Domestic and quick charging points

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Charging Infrastructure: Plugged in Places

Already installed:�276 points installed�8 Fast chargers

(provide 50 kW of power)

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Charging Infrastructure: EV User membership “Charge Your Car”

• Scheme is a semi-commercial venture

• 100£ annual fee: free electricity +free Parking until March 2013

• Leaflets

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Charging Infrastructure:How suited is the North-East for Electric Vehicles?

• What this graph shows is that for over 90% of the time driving in the North East, the EV is within 5km of a charging point.

• The EV is within 15km of a charge point for more than 99% of the time spent driving

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Events statistics

Average journey length: 10 km Longest journey: 107 kmAverage journey duration: 15 minTotal journey distance: 129,497 km(Newcastle-Brussels= 610 km:106 return journeys)

Total number of journeys: 12,786Total number of charges: 3520Total energy transferred: 25 MWh

Data from Dec 2010 to Dec 2011

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How do we collect and analyse data?Monitor all aspects of vehicle usage. Sec/sec data

•Vehicle data (ignition signal, heater, gear position,etc…)

•battery management data (State of Charge,Energy Transfered)

•GPS and time stamp (Position, time => Distance, Duration)

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Location, consumption and regeneration 1

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Consumption and regeneration depend not only on the speed and traffic patterns within the journey . . .

. . . but also on the topography of the journey.

Location, consumption and regeneration 2

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Identical spatial journeys can reveal more about the specifics of driving electric cars and by analysing the data we can start to think about other conclusions

Different drivers making the same journey

Location, consumption and regeneration 3

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Switch EV Participants and soft data collection

• 44 cars lent out in 4 separate periods > 145 organ isations and families for at least 6 month at a time.

• 2 periods so far; >100 individuals driving the cars• Before, during and after surveys and focus groups o f drivers

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What do consumers want?

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Limited Driving Range and ITS

Theoretical perceived range

Role of Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) in overcoming the limited range barrier:

Intelligent in-vehicle technology (Information and Communication technologies)gives the drivers more information which would expand their perceived range.

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Time: 09:57:00

Distance: 61.0m

Av Speed: 22km/h

Av Discharge: 0.32 kwh/km

Traffic: Busy

Total Distance: 61.0m

Topography information(elevation…)

Incorporating traffic and topography information to the EV journey

Time: 09:59:00

Distance: 52.77m

Av Speed: 32.2km/h

Av Discharge: 0.29kwh/km

Traffic: Busy-Smooth

Total Distance: 162..89m

Topography information

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Perceived range is

altered by

topography and

traffic . . .

Perceived range depends on information

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Now add driver

reaction to feedback

of information on

charging stations

Perceived range depends on information

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Perceived range depends on information

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Users over-estimate their driving range

On average, how many miles did you complete per trip?

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95% of journeys are well within the Battery range

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93% of Trips in GB are well within the Battery rang e

Cumulative trips, passenger distance and CO2 emissions from household car journeys by trip length, GB, 2002/2006 average (Source DfT analysis)

New flexible ownership models

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Life Cycle cost of EV vs ICE

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Would you consider buying an EV? Post trial

Only 13% of AA members said that they “I would seriously consider buying an electric car within the next two years”

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Perceptions of EVs

Post trialPre trial Get people to try an EV!

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Tracking user recharging behaviour

The Switch EV trials monitor driver recharging behaviour

�Recharging location (home, work, other)�Time of day of recharging events�Energy transferred during recharge

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Where are people recharging?

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% Energy transferred by location over 24 hour perio d

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Why is recharging time important?

‘On-peak’ recharging between

08:00am and 18:00pm, with an

average carbon content of

465gCO2/kWh

‘Off-peak’ recharging

between 00:00am and

06:00am, with an average

carbon content of

364gCO2/kWh

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When the vehicles are recharging?Peak recharging: 80gCO2/Km (6km/kWh)

Off-Peak recharging: 60 gCO2/Km

Business models to encourage people to charge at night

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What will happen when there are a lot of EV’s and c harging at peak time?

Data:Newcastle UniversityNational GridOffice for National StatisticsENTSO-E

Smarter grids and individual household smart metering is crucial

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Summary

Trials are beginning to test and understand consumer charging patterns and behaviour –there will be a need to ‘influence’ this behaviour to manage demand and carbon content

Intelligent Transport Systems aims at informing the driver and at helping to overcome barriers to the EV uptake.

If You want consumers to have a positive perception of EV’s: get them to try one!

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Pay as you go …

EV’s pay no road tax, no congestion charge and do not pay fuel duty.

Government will need to re-think how it raises tax from the road transport sector in the future if EV ownership becomes widespread.

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Contact / Further InformationMyriam Neaimeh

[email protected]

Switch EVhttp://vehicletrial.switchev.co.uk/

TORG Web: http://www.ceg.ncl.ac.uk/transport/index.htm

TransportNewcastle Web: http://www.ncl.ac.uk/transport/

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CONNECTING EUROPE: TEN-T & CEF *

Assuring transport for Europe's citizens & goods- with a special chapter on innovation

& new technologies

Presentation by Helmut Morsi, European Commission Deputy Head of Unit: DG MOVE B1, TEN& Head of Sector: TENtec & Innovation

*CEF = Connecting Europe Facility

Recharging the European Electric Vehicle Market

22 February 2012

The Silken Berlaymont Hotel, Brussels

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Transport – lifeblood of the economy

• Transport is fundamental to a strong economy

• Freight transport in Europe is expected to

grow by 80% by 2050

• Passenger transport to grow by more than

50%

• CO2 emissions endeavored to fall by 60 %

• Key: A vitally new infrastructure policy

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THE NEW

TRANS-EUROPEAN TRANSPORT NETWORK

A CORE NETWORK: BLUEPRINT FOR 2030

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TODAY......• Lacking connections between Member States

• Remaining technical barriers (railway gauge, electrification, control and command systems, traffic management)

• Too many gaps between transport modes (e.g.: only 20 major airports directly connected to the rail network and only 35 major ports well connected to land network)

• Almost ignored intelligent transport solutions across modes

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TODAY......

• Bottlenecks, missing links and inefficient capacity management as an obstacle to smooth traffic flows

• Remaining imbalances in infrastructure endowment and, consequently, in access to markets and prosperity

• Inadequate infrastructure connections with neighbouring and other third countries

• Lack of innovation, especially with a view to low carbon technologies

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The

patchwork

todayPriority project

sections (passenger

rail) completed by

2010

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We need to do better

• The existing patchwork of priority projects will be

replaced by a single European core network

• Core network corridors will effectively boost core

network implementation

• The comprehensive network as “ground layer” to

ensure accessibility and common standards in all

regions

• “core” is just a special label of a comprehensive

network section, which emphasises the elevated

importance of a section for trans-European traffic

flows (-> methodology).

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2030

A European core

network (rail)

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Boosting investment with the CEF

• 31.7 billion, out of which 10 billion specifically for cohesion countries

• 80 – 85 % for core network corridors, 3 horizontal priorities and other important cross-border sections

• 15 – 20 % for other projects of the core and comprehensive networks

• Innovative financial instruments

• Further 24 billion Euros under the Cohesion Fund

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Innovation & new technologies (a)

- TEN-T Guidelines (Proposal) -

• TEN-T Section 7 - Common Provisions

• Art. 39 New technologies and innovation

The comprehensive network shall keep up with state-of-the-art

technological developments and deployments. They shall in particular

aim to:

a) enable the decarbonisation of transport through transition

to innovative transport technologies;

b) enable the decarbonisation of all transport modes by

stimulating energy efficiency as well as the introduction of

alternative propulsion systems and the provision of

corresponding infrastructure. Such infrastructure may

include grids and other facilities necessary for the energy

supply, take account of the infrastructure – vehicle

interface and encompass intelligent transport systems;

c) …. & d) ….

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Innovation & new technologies (b)

- TEN-T Guidelines (Proposal) -

• TEN-T Section 7 - Common Provisions

• Art. 39 New technologies and innovation (continued)

e) promote measures to reduce external costs, such as pollution

of any kind, including noise, congestion and health damage;

f) …

g) improve resilience to climate change;

h) further advance the development and deployment of

intelligent transport systems within and between modes of

transport.

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Innovation & new technologies (c)

- Connecting Europe Facility (transport) -

• CEF Art 10 – Funding Rates (Grants)

– Studies for all modes : up to 50%

– Works for rail & IWW : up to 20 to 40%

– Inland transport connections to ports & airports and devel. of ports &

MMPs : up to 20%

– Traffic management systems & services

• Rail - ERTMS : up to 50%

• Road Core Network – traffic manag. sys., freight serv. & secure parkings :

up to 20%

• Motorways of the Seas – development : up to 20%

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EU 27 Member statesRoads, ports, rail-road terminals and airports

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TEN-T Annual Call 2012

Priority 2a: Studies and preparation of deployment projects

contributing to mitigation and adaptation to climate change

(GHG emissions).• Scope and objective: support sustainable passenger and freight transport in the

EU

– Studies with integrated pilot deployment

– Transport infrastructure and facilities

– On TEN-T network

– Introduction and use of new technologies, in particular using alternative fuels

– Market-sided innovation

– All modes of transport

• Focus: Only new technologies ready for deployment, with initial results by the end of 2013. - no research!

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TEN-T Annual Call 2012Political Objective taken from Workprogramme (legal base for call)

• Only proven new technologies will be considered under this priority, with the

objective of testing them and providing initial results by the end of 2013.

• The final objective is to enable policy-makers, EU citizens and industry to

understand and decide which technologies have the highest potential for rapid

deployment across the EU.

• Since such deployment would happen at EU level, particular attention will be

given to the European added value, such as the swift harmonisation of

(minimum) standards and the swift creation of critical mass in the EU.

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TEN-T Annual Call 2012Financial Support of EU

• EU contribution 1 to 5 million €, except in duly justified cases

• Up to 50% of eligible costs.

• Legal persons of private or public law inside EU27

• Call Deadline: 13 April 2012http://tentea.ec.europa.eu/en/apply_for_funding/follow_the_funding_process/annual_call_2011.htm

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TEN-T Annual Call 2012Lessons Learnt from last call

• Annual TEN-T call in 2010

• 6 innovation projects received, only 1 selected

• Main reason for rejection:

– Lack of maturity

– Research (ineligible !)

– Not focussed on transport (relevance)

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Thank you for your attention.