presentation causes of war
TRANSCRIPT
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History teaches us that war begins when governments believe the price of
aggression is cheap.
Ronald Reagan
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Why did Georgia do it?
2008 South Ossetia War
Causes of War
Prof. LengJan. 2011
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Background Research Design Analysis Research Gaps Conclusion
Outline:
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Pre-Soviet Soviet Times 1990’s
Ossetia/ Georgia
Georgia/Russia
Background
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2008 South Ossetia War
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Research Design: Hypotheses
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When war is declared, Truth is the first casualty.
Arthur Ponsonby
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Analysis: Optimism and Opportunity
Internal Factors(Russia vs. Georgia)
External Factors (Possible Reactions)
Georgia Russia
Military Power
$1 bn6% of GDP
$40 bnIncreased 20%
Public Discord
Relatively high
Relatively high
Economic Strength
12% GDP growth $10.3 bn
8.1% GDP growth$2.331 trillion
NationalismHigh High Lack of Information?
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Analysis: “weak state”
Vertical (Medium/Low)
• Warring factions• War on corruption• Medium and lower levels
• Lack of Judicial reforms• Still linked to executive
branch
Horizontal (Medium)
• Lowered Freedom Rating• Mikheil Saakashvili• Use of force against
protestors• Democratic elections
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Analysis: clash of civilizations
Micro
• Previous Autonomy of Ossetia• Orthodox Christian
mainly • 67% Ethnic Ossetian
Macro
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Research gaps
• Statistics to determine “War”• Hypo 4:
Transitioning Democracy?• Why was Russia
involved?• Mechanisms were
lacking in the theories
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Everyone lost All hypotheses
provide some incite Manly due to sphere
of influence politics, when the timing was right
Conclusion
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War may sometimes be a necessary evil. But no matter how necessary, it is always an evil, never a good. We will
not learn how to live together in peace by killing each other's children.
Jimmy Carter