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Presentación CONUEE 2017 La Tecnología Diesel: Estado Actual y Perspectivas.Marco Galindo – Gerente Nacional de Ventas Diesel OEM, Robert Bosch México

Status del Mercado HD / MD Diesel en NA

Intern | DS/SNA-MX | 30.08.2017

© 2017 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.2

Comentarios Iniciales

❖ La Industria Diesel HD Local y Regional (Norte América) continua fuerte y muy dinámica

❖ Los Vehículos Comerciales (Autobuses y Camiones) y OH no fueron afectados

❖ Real Driving Emissions (RDE)

❖ Electromobilidad

❖ e – FUELS




➢ Combustibles Alternativos

➢ Sobrevista de Normatividad

➢ La Importancia del Diesel

➢ Tendencias Tecnológicas

➢ Situación Actual / Voces del Mercado

Contenido

Agenda




Principales Indicadores CV Pronostico de Venta CV

Crecimiento del PIB

Confianza del Consumidor

Intención de Compra del Consumidor

Mercado Local

Fuente: ACT Research & FTR

Situación Actual

320226 212 252 264 266 230 233 238 244

243

246 274279 284 287

292 296 297 301

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2015* 2016* 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Heavy Duty Medium Duty

472 486531 553 529522 545563 548








➢ Voces del Mercado

Contenido

Situación Actual




“Nikola reveals a hydrogen fuel cell truck, called ‘The Nikola One’, which has a target release date of 2020. The vehicle commonly referred to as ‘the Tesla of trucks’, is designed for long-haul trips and has the potential to travel between 800 and 1,200 miles on a single tank of fuel; while delivering over 1,000 horsepower and 2,000 pounds of torque.” December 2016

“Daimler’s SuperTruck prototype achieved a 115% increase in freight efficiency, doubled fuel efficiency to 12 mpg and obtained 50% BTE engine efficiency. The prototype included a special lightweight wheel and hub, slashed 700 lbs. from the tractor, and a downsized powertrain that features a 10.7 liter engine with an electric motor and a waste heat recovery system.” October 2016

“Elon Musk has teased a Tesla semi truck that is slated to be released in September 2017. The goal is to show that an electric truck can out torque any diesel semi currently on the road. Leaked images reveal that it resembles the concept of the Nikola One.” May 2017

“Volkswagen has agreed to a 17% technology and purchasing deal with Navistar International Corporation. The forged alliance will aid future emission regulations for both companies; provide VW with a foothold in the North American Market and serve as a new engine source for Navistar. VW will pay $15.76 a share for 16.2 million shares of Navistar.” September 2016

“Volvo’s SuperTruck has an improved freight efficiency by 88% and surpassed 13 mpg. The concept vehicle reduced vehicle weight by more than 3,000 lbs., decreased drag by 40% and improved fuel economy by 70% (when compared to 2009 models).” October 2016

Voces del Mercado






➢ La importancia del Diesel



Contenido

Situación Actual




Normatividad México / USA Sobrevista

2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Regulator

California

Federal

California

Federal

Federal

*Dates and values not defined. Based on feedback from EPA/ARB/Customers** g/kWh

US

/ C

anad

aM

exic

o

CV

CV

NOx ≤ 0.02g/bhphPhase-in expected*

US 2010 NOx(0.2g/bhph) Use of credits allowed. NCP*’s

if no credits available

Add. requirements

Phase 2Phase1

Alternative Fuels – Revisions every 2 years

Ultra Low SulphurDiesel NOM 44 proposal. EU6, EPA equiv.

NOM42 ≈ EPA04 NOM44 proposal. EU6, EPA equiv.

No Requirements NOM44 proposal. EU6, EPA equiv.




~96% reduction

~96

% r

edu

ctio

n

Diesel HDV Standards

Normatividad México / USA Sobrevista









Contenido

Situación Actual




La Importancia de la Industria Diesel

97.2%

1.2%1.6%

OtherCNGDiesel

0.1%

33.8%

0.7%

65.5%

CNG OtherDiesel Gasoline

MD CV Class 4-7

La mayor participación de la F lota Comercial en NA, es predominantemente diesel

Source: 2016 Registration Data, IHS

HD CV Class 8




Nuevas Tecnologías Diesel – NA HD NTDE* en Operación

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: DTF based on IHS class 3-8 registrations and vehicles in operation for the U.S.

NTDE Technology Package• SCR (2011)• EGR• Particulate filter• Injection improvements• Enhanced turbocharging• Ultra-low sulfur fuel

NTDE w/o SCR

Mas del 45% de la flota HD 2016 en NA cuenta con motores diesel de nuevas tecnologías @ MY 2006

* NTDE: New Technology Diesel Engines


Intern | DS/SNA-NA | 30.08.2017


Sectores Clave de la Economía dependen del Diesel

Infographics: Courtesia de Diesel Technology Forum

➢ Agricultura

➢ Minería

➢ Construcción

➢ Producción de Petróleo / Gas

➢ Comercio y Logística

➢ Transporte Publico

➢ Servicios de Gobierno

➢ Energía Eléctrica




Situacion Actual






Contenido




CNG Gas Natural Comprimido para uso Vehicular (NGV)

➢ Actualmente hay proyectos de gran dimensión, 50% de los cuales son para incrementar la infraestructura de distribución.

39266

554780

1,600

3,239

OthersTotal DAIMLERVOLVOAUTOCARPACCAR

Red Nacional de Gasoductos

Source: Registration Data, IHS

Source: www.afdc.energy.gov

2016 CNG HD Truck (cl.8) por OEM

Precio de Compra CNG = ~ $ 2.11 / GGE (Gasoline Galon Equivalent)




e F uels H2 Hidrogeno Liquido

Nationwide there are currently 35 H2 public refueling stations available.

Thereof only 3 outside California

21 more are planned: 18 in California

Precio de Compra H2 = ~ $16.50 / kg (2/8/17 Pump Price)

Estación de H2

▪ Heavy-duty tractors and buses have hydrogen options available on a demonstration basis

Vehiculo Disponible en 2020

▪ Light-duty hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles available in select regions

Source: Source: www.afdc.energy.gov




e F uels H2 Hidrogeno Liquido

Nationwide there are currently 35 H2 public refueling stations available.

Thereof only 3 outside California

21 more are planned: 18 in California




Situación Actual






Contenido



© 2017 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.19 Sources: Trucks.com, I.H.S., ATRI, Tech Emergence, Business Insider, FAA, U.S. Department of Commerce, CNBC, Statista

Mega Tendencias Impacto en el Mercado CV Alcance

Camiones Autonomos. Video: Autonomous Trucking Capability beginning for Level 4 Autonomous technology: 2021

I.H.S. forecast: Sales of autonomous trucks will reach 60k in 2035.

Emisiones CO2

Implementacion: 2021

Drones: Video: Drone Delivery Base case: 2020-2023.Drone delivery will represent less than 1% of the overall commercial drone market by 2020.

Commercial drone sales forecast:2017f: 108,0002020f: 327,000

Emergence of E-Commerce: E-commerce sales:

2016: $399 B

2017f: $429 B

2020f: $632 B

Drive Retention Productivity Operational Costs Truck Capacity

Initial Truck Cost Safety Improvements ProductionFuel Savings

Mainstream implementation (2035+)

Productivity Fuel Savings

Unknown: Cost, speed of implementation, customer acceptance,

future regulations

Productivity

Operational Costs

Fuel Savings

Truck Capacity Freight Activity Demand for regional haul/MD trucks

Demand

Produccion (2021)

Menor demanda en2021 para Class 8

Costo OEM

Incremento del costopara 2021.

Costo – Largo Plazo

Ahorros en Consumode Combustible

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctjSPBlPcxc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xx9_6OyjJrQ

Presentación CONUEE 2017 La Tecnología Diesel: Estado Actual y Perspectivas.Marco Galindo – Gerente Nacional de Ventas Diesel OEM, Robert Bosch México

presentación conuee 2017 la tecnología diesel: estado ... · presentación conuee 2017 la...

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