preparing bankable documents

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“Preparing Bankable Documents” Training

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"The case study has been drawn up by the Development Bank of Turkey for the seminar of “Preparing Bankable Documents”, to be held in Sarejevo on 26 January 2010. It is organized by BBI and presentations are made by the Development Bank of Turkey together with PGlobal Global Advisory and Training Services Ltd."


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X ENERGY ELECTRICITY GENERATION

INDUSTRIAL & TRADING CORPORATION

XYZ HEPP INVESTMENT

APPRAISAL REPORT

PROJECT APPRAISAL DEPARTMENT

June 2009

ANKARA


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INTRODUCTION

X Energy Electricity Generation Co. (X Enerji Elektrik Üretim A.Ş.) made an application to our

bank on 10.05.2009, for USD 6.650.000 TKB-World Bank Renewable Energy Loan to be utilized for the

XYZ Hydroelectric Power Plant Project in Adana, which has 4.825 MW installed power for electricity

generation.

As a result of the appraisal made upon the said request, a loan in the amount of USD - 5,000,000

has been proposed for the project.

1. INFORMATION ABOUT THE COMPANY

1.1. Company Name: X Energy Electricity Generation Industrial & Trading Corporation (X Enerji Elektrik

Üretim San. ve Tic. A.Ş.)

1.2. Address and Tel No:

Head Office : İzmir cad. No: 35 Seyhan/ADANA

Tel : 0 312 417 9200

Fax : 0 312 417 9201

Gsm : -

1.3. Tax Office and Tax No: SEYHAN – 024 044 5550

1.4. Activity Area: Hydroelectric Power Plant – Electricity Generation

1.5. Capital Structure:

Nominal Capital : 1,300,000 TL

Capital paid in : 192,000 TL

Projected Capital Raise : 1,400,000 USD

(Approximately 2,200,000 TL)


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Shareholders

Share Amount (TL)

Share (%)

Oktay Kuçukkiremitci 312,000 24

Mustafa Simsek 312,000 24

Omur Genc 312,000 24

Faruk Sekmen 312,000 24

Emrah Ersoy 52,000 4

TOTAL 1,300,000 100

1.6. Legal Status

X Energy Electricity Generation Industrial & Trading Corporation was established by X Group on

15.05.2007.

1.7. Financial Structure:

Balance sheet as of 31.03.2009 is summarized below (TL):

Current Assets 62,511 Current Liabilities 1,726

Fixed Assets 62,711 Stockholders Equity 123,496

ASSETS 125,222 LIABILITIES 125,222

2. INFORMATION ABOUT THE PROJECT

2.1. Project Name : X Energy Electricity Generation

Corporation - XYZ Hepp

2.2. Location : Adana

2.3.Installed Power: 4.825 MW - 15,864,878 Kwh/year Electricity Generation


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2.4. Equity Ratios

Equity / Total Investment (Proposed 31.12.2011) : 27 %

Equity / Total Fixed Investment (Prop. 31.12.2011) : 31 %

2.5. Implementation Program

- Starting Date : June 2009

- Start-up Date : 30.06.2011

2.6. Document Date and Number

Incentive Certificate : 27.07.2009 - 93522

License : 20.10.2008 – EÜ/9000-24/1200

2.7. Annual Operating Income at Full Capacity : 1,320,957 USD

2.8. Annual Operating Expenses at Full Capacity : 257,165 USD

2.9. Annual Gross Cash Flow at Full Capacity : 1,063,792 USD

2.10. Employment to be Created (Proposed) : 8 Person

3. TECHNICAL EXAMINATION AND EVALUATION

3.1. SCOPE OF THE PROJECT

X Energy Electricity Generation Co. has been constructing an electric energy plant from

hydropower energy with an installed capacity of 4.852 MWm / 4.6094 MWe in Eastern Mediterranean

Region, on Seyhan river basin. Project Evaluation studies have been made to evaluate the World Bank

Renewable Energy Loan demanded by the company in the amount of 6,650,000 USD.

EPDK (EMRA – Energy Market Regulatory Authority) Licence dated 20.10.2008 and numbered

EÜ/9000-24/1200 is presented to the bank.


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3.2. PROJECT LOCATION

Investment will be carried out in the southern of Turkey, within the boundaries of Seyhan District

of Adana. XYZ regulator and power plant project consist of regulator, conduction canal, a forebay and a

power plant.

Tarsus-Adana-Gaziantep highway, connecting GAP (Southeastern Anatolian Project) region to

Çukurova, is passing at the southern part of Adana. The railway passing through the city is 107,230 km

long. There is an airport in the city which is 5 km away from the city center.

Adana is placed in the nearest part of three geographic regions (Mediterranean Region, Eastern

Anatolia and Southeastern Anatolia). With the affects of the geographic region and the other factors, it

has a climate named as “deformed Mediterranean climate”.

Most of the area of the XYZ Regulator and HEPP project is “forest land” which is owned by the

state. These places will be expropriated by paying the fees to the Ministry of Environment and Forestry.

Remaining part of the land will be purchased from the owners.

Project site takes place in the “first earthquake zone” on the map of Turkish Earthquake Regions.

Therefore, horizontal seismic acceleration coefficient should be taken “0.4g” during the construction

calculations.

3.3. TECHNICAL FEATURES

XYZ regulator and hydroelectric generator project is consist of regulator, sedimentation pool,

conduction canal, forebay, penstock and power plant. The project is constructed to benefit the driving

head between tailwater of the Kartal Dam and the Irrigation Regulator after the dam.

Regulator

Type : Roller Compacted Concrete Regulator with

Radial valve and spillway

Level of the stream bed : 655 m


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Height from thalweg : 10 m

Length : 70 m

Elevation under the radial valve : 658 m

Elevation on the radial valve : 665 m

Dimensions of the radial valve (BxH) : 8 m x 7 m (2 pcs)

Elevation under the spillway : 664 m

Crest level : 665 m

Width of the spillway : 20 m

Maximum water level : 664,6 m

Conduction Canal

Type : Rectangular sectioned canal

Length : 1.700 m

Slope : 0,0004

Width : 5,00 m

Water height : 3,05 m

Capacity (Qmax.) : 23 m3/s

Forebay

Length : 45 m

Width : 15 m

Normal water level : 663,07 m

Max. Water level : 663,65 m

Min. water level : 660,07 m

Penstock

Diameter : 2,60 m

Length : 50 m


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Thickness : 8 – 10 mm

Power plant

Type : Horizontal - Francis

Installed Capacity : 4,852 MW

Project flow : 23 m3/s

Number of units : 2 pcs.

Power of units : 2,426 MW

Level of the tailwater : 638,40 m

Gross fall (hydraulic head) : 25,60 m

Net fall : 24,44 m

Revolutions per minute : 500 rpm

Generator

Type : Horizontal

Power of units : 2

Coefficient of efficiency : 0,9

Power of the generator : 2.620 kVA

Voltage : 6.3 kV

Frequency : 50 Hz

Revolutions per minute : 500 rpm

Transformer :

Type : Open, oil used

Number : 2

Power : 3 000 kVA

Voltage : 6.3/31,5 kV

Frequency : 50 Hz

Reference : Dyn 11

Cooling : ONAN


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Transformer (Inside)

Type : Open type, cooling by using oil

Number : 1

Power : 250 kVA, 6,3/0,4 kV

Frequency : 50 Hz

Reference : Dyn 5

Cooling : ONAN

3.4. INSTALLED CAPACITY, CAPACITY AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

The water resource of the project is Aksu stream which is a branch of Seyhan River. By this

project, the water flow of Aksu Stream at the thalweg level of 665 m. will be used. Kartal Dam is located

in the upstream, 3 km away from XYZ Regulator. Kartal Dam, which has been operated since 1970, was

built for irrigation and flood protection. Irrigation water which is released from Kartal Dam is used

after being regulated by Deniz Regulator. The project site is between Kartal Dam and Deniz Regulator,

and electrical energy will be generated by using the irrigation and spillway waters.

At the upstream of the project, there have been the gaging site 20-2, 20-31 and at the

downstream of the project there have been the gaging site 20-17, 20-40 and 20-47. The characteristic

features of those sites are shown on the table below:

Gaging Site No 20-2 20-31 20-17 20-40 20-47

Water Resource Aksu Gölbaşı Aksu İçerisu Aksu

Gaging Site Name Başpınar Çıkış Köprüağzı Balıklaya H.Mustafa

Precipitation Area (km2) 197.1 62 1,740 79 2,787

Elevation 895 882 560 670 455

Operating since 1967 1969 1972 1975 1979

XYZ Regulatory and Hepp is a plant for generating electricity and after generating electricity the

used water will be released to the stream bed. At XYZ Regulator, 0.1 m3/s of water will be left for the

existence life in the stream bed.


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For the Project, there has been made an operating study by considering the water resource, the

above mentioned life water and irrigation water by years and is shown on the table below:

Years

Kartal Outgoing

Flows (hm3)

Downstream needed

water (hm3)

XYZ HEPP Inlet Flows

per year (hm3)

Released from

spillway (hm3)

Energy Generated

Flow (hm3)

XYZ HEPP

Average Flow rate

(m3/s)

XYZ HEPP Generated

Energy GWh/Year

1973 170,72 1,93 168,79 0 168,79 5,352296 9,83609

1974 203,21 1,93 201,28 1,81 199,47 6,325152 11,62394

1975 476,6 1,93 474,67 132,33 342,34 10,85553 19,94956

1976 453,76 1,93 451,83 154,04 297,79 9,442859 17,35345

1977 831,07 1,93 829,14 371,31 457,83 14,51769 26,67964

1978 376,91 1,93 374,98 73,76 301,22 9,551624 17,55333

1979 305,91 1,93 303,98 19,56 284,42 9,018899 16,57433

1980 572,55 1,93 570,62 217,46 353,16 11,19863 20,58009

1981 569,85 1,93 567,92 211,99 355,93 11,28647 20,74151

1982 409,06 1,93 407,13 22,14 384,99 12,20795 22,43496

1983 212,17 1,93 210,24 0,83 209,41 6,640348 12,20318

1984 363,73 1,93 361,8 27,71 334,09 10,59392 19,4688

1985 244,24 1,93 242,31 3,87 238,44 7,560883 13,89488

1986 237,37 1,93 235,44 0 235,44 7,465753 13,72006

1987 507,77 1,93 505,84 165,37 340,47 10,79623 19,84059

1988 603,95 1,93 602,02 248,85 353,17 11,19895 20,58067

1989 164,39 1,93 162,46 0 162,46 5,151573 9,467214

1990 265,01 1,93 263,08 0 263,08 8,342212 15,33076

1991 123,76 1,93 121,83 0 121,83 3,863204 7,099537

1992 255,19 1,93 253,26 6,93 246,33 7,811073 14,35467

1993 390,38 1,93 388,45 90,66 297,79 9,442859 17,35345

1994 207,61 1,93 205,68 3,03 202,65 6,425989 11,80925

1995 276,62 1,93 274,69 0 274,69 8,710363 16,00732

1996 764,97 1,93 763,04 409,88 353,16 11,19863 20,58009

1997 395,58 1,93 393,65 21,1 372,55 11,81348 21,71003

1998 469,26 1,93 467,33 105,01 362,32 11,48909 21,11388

1999 264,91 1,93 262,98 0 262,98 8,339041 15,32493

2000 222,82 1,93 220,89 0 220,89 7,004376 12,87217

2001 123,76 1,93 121,83 0 121,83 3,863204 7,099537

2002 363,25 1,93 361,32 34,62 326,7 10,35959 19,03816

2003 266,2 1,93 264,27 16,25 248,02 7,864663 14,45315

2004 314,85 1,93 312,92 33,78 279,14 8,851471 16,26664

2005 227,42 1,93 225,49 0 225,49 7,150241 13,14023

2006 240,99 1,93 239,06 2,49 236,57 7,501585 13,78591

2007 123,76 1,93 121,83 0 121,83 3,863204 7,099537

Average 342,85 1,93 340,92 67,85 273,06 8,65883 15,91262


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Installed capacity of the power plant is evaluated as shown below:

Install Capacity (N) for Hydroelectric Power Plants is evaluated by the formula:

N=g x μ x Q x H

μ = μtur x μgen x μtra

In this equation;

g = gravitational acceleration (9.81 m/s)

μ = efficiency of the plant

μtur = efficiency of the turbine = 0.93

μjen = efficiency of the generator = 0.96

μtra = efficiency of the transformer = 0.98

Q = Flow rate of the project (m³/s)

H = Net fall (m)

N = power (MW)

μ = 0.93 x 0.96 x 0.98 = 0.875

Install capacity is evaluated for the maximum flow rate and fall. In this case, install capacity;

N= 9.81 x 0.875 x 23 x 24.44

N =4.825 MWe

In the equation, maximum flow rate in one turbine is taken 23 m³/s and net fall is taken 24.44 m. The

efficiency coefficient of plant is assumed to be 0.875.

The capacity for the average rate of flow is;

N = 9.81 x 0.875 x 8.65 x 24.44

N = 1.817 MWe


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In the equations, for the XYZ HEPP the average rate of flow is taken 8.65 m/s and the fall at the average

flow rate is taken 24.44 m. The efficiency coefficient of plant is assumed as 0.875.

Energy generated for one year in maximum rate of flow;

4.825 MW x 24 h/day x 365 day/year x 1000 KW/MW = 42,267,000 kWh/year

Energy generated for one year in the average rate of flow;

1.817 MW x 24 h/day x 365 day/year x 1000 KW/MW = 15,912,616 kWh/year

When the consumption of electricity for the plant itself, which is about the 0.0003 of the energy

generated per year, is decreased, the amount of generated electricity per year is found as 15,864,878

kWh.

The generated electricity per year is the generated electricity that is calculated for the yearly average

rate of flow. This quantity is also called “actual capacity”. In this case, the capacity utilization rate is

found by dividing the capacity by actual capacity, which is 37.6 %.

3.5 EFFECTS OF THE PROJECT ON ENVIROMENT

XYZ regulator and HEPP, is an energy generation project that will use Kartal Dam’s spillway and

water of irrigation. Kartal Dam was built in 1980, for irrigation. Project has a regulator, a conduction

canal which is 1700 meter, a forebay, penstocks and a plant. HEPP will use the irrigation water except life

water. Life water is about 100 liter per second. There is not any place near the plant which can be

affected directly by the existence of the project. Total installed capacity of HEPP is 4.852 MWm / 4.6094

MWe. Environmental Impact Assessment has been completed for Project, and “Document stating that

EIA is not required” has been taken from Adana Governorship, Provincial Directorate of Environment and

Forests with the date 04.06.2009 and number 2009/002 for XYZ Regulator and HEPP. (Annex 3) But that

document was prepared for EARC Electric Generation Industrial and Trading Corporation. So, document

has to be modified. X Energy Corporation reported that they had started the modification procedures


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and would present modification document when they obtained it. Agreement of Water Utilization is in

Annex 4.

3.6. APPLICATION PLAN OF INVESTMENT

When Project was evaluated in June, Company signed contract for civil works, and got proposition for

turbine, generator, plc systems and etc. from manufacturer companies. Company set up the construction

camp and began excavation for conveyance canal and regulator. The investor pointed out that they will

present the “Document of Investment Incentive” to ‘Development Bank of Turkey’ later.

3.7. TOTAL INVESTMENT COST AND DISTRIBUTION OF THE YEARS

Central Bank of Republic of Turkey’s foreign excange offer rate for the 10th of June 2009 is used for

calculating the Project’s investment cost.

1 EURO = 2.1702 TL 1 USD = 1.5397 TL

3.7.1. Land

Project land is consist of public areas and personal ownerships. If it is necessary, areas will be

expropriated or will be bought from their owners. Approximately 20,000-USD (30,800-TL) was estimated

for expropriation and purchasing.

3.7.2. Research and Design

350,000-USD (539,000-TL) is estimated for all items of etude and project.

3.7.3. Construction Expenses

Information of civil works is displayed in the chart.


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Number CİVİL WORKS COST ESTİMATE

(TL) (US $)

1

Regulator, Sediment Pool, and

Cofferdam 1,433,904 931,288

2 Conveyance Canal 661,570 429,675

3 Forebay 512,898 333,115

4 Penstock and Valve Chamber 408,876 265,556

5 Plant and Tailwater 816,102 530,040

6 Construction Camp and Ways 602,963 391,611

7 Switchyard 630,000 409,171

TOTAL CIVIL WORKS 5,066,313 3,290,455

3,290,455-USD (5,066,313-TL) is estimated for total civil works expense.

3.7.4. Machinery and Equipment

Information of machinery and equipment is displayed in the chart.

DOMESTIC MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT

Transmission Line and Transformers

Number Description Unit Quantity Unit Price Sub-total

($) (TL) $

1

Electric Transition

Line and

Transformers

Km 4.62 50,000,00 355,317 230,770

TOTAL 355,317 230,770

230,770-USD (355,317-TL) is estimated for domestic machinery and equipments. Total cost of machinery

and equipment is 2,277,770-USD.


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IMPORT MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT

MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT

No

Description Unit Quant.

1 Vertical Francis Turbine set 2

2 Generator and Excitation System set 2

3 Microcomputer-based Governor(with PLC) set 2

4 Inlet Valve set 2

5 Automatic Control Equipments for Turbine and

Generator set 2

6 Control, Measuring and Protective Equipments set 1

7 Heat Measuring and Braking System set 2

8 Central Control System set 1

9 Cooling Water System of the Whole Plant set 1

10 Special Tools set 1

11 Spark Parts set 1

TOTAL 3,151,766 TL 2,047,000 $

2,047,000-USD (3,151,766-TL) is estimated for machinery and equipments. Company planned to import

machinery and equipments from China.

3.7.5. Freight and Insurance

95,000-USD expense is estimated.

3.7.6. Mounting Expenses



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3.7.7. Start-up Expenses


3.7.8. General Expenses


3.7.9. Unpredicted Expenses


3.8. CALCULATION OF THE PLANT’S EXPENDITURE, INCOME AND REQUIREMENT OF CAPITAL

3.8.1. Plant’s Expenditure

Utilization Expense of System and Operating Expense of System for XYZ Regulator and HEPP Project is

calculated from decision of EPDK (EMRA – Energy Market Regulatory Authority) with date 24.12.2008

and number 1824.

Utilization Expense of System = 7,183.89 TL/MW

x 4.825 MW 22,512 USD

Operating Expense of System = 423.32

TL/MW x 4.825 MW 1,327 USD

1 EURO = 2.1702 TL. 1 USD = 1.5397 TL. (10.06.2009 CB)

20,000-USD is estimated for insurance. An engineer, 2 operator, 3 watchmen and 2 employees will work

in the Plant. 100,800- USD is estimated for yearly staff expense.

80.000-USD is estimated for maintenance. 10% of the total expenses for general expense, 2% of the total

expenses for unpredicted expenses are the cost of those units in Project.


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3.8.2. Plant’s income

XYZ HEPP Project’s saleable electric energy calculated from average of the annual flow. And it is

evaluated by decreasing 0.3% of total generated electric energy from total generated electric energy.

15,864,878-kwh/year is estimated for saleable electric energy.

3.8.3. Circulation Capital

It was accepted that all plant expenses paid in the period of 30 days and payment term is 30 days in

Calculation of Circulation Capital.

3.9 CONCLUSION OF THE TECHNICAL APPRAISAL

XYZ Regulator and HEPP Project will use the water of irrigation and spillway of Kartal. Kartal is a dam

which accumulates the water of Aksu Stream which is branch of Seyhan River. Installed capacity of the

plant is 4.825 MW and in the amount of 15,912,616 kWh energy is expected to be generated. By

decreasing 0.3% of the total energy because of the energy used inside the plant, 15,864,878 kWh is

found as a saleable energy.

5.2. EXPLANATIONS CONCERNING THE LOANS PROPOSED

LOAN TYPE

LOAN

AMOUNT (USD)

PROPOSED

DISBURSEMENT DATE

INTEREST RATE (%)

MATURITY

Energy Loan 1 3.650.000

30.09.2009

7 4/13

Clean Technology Fund 1.350.000

30.09.2009

3 4/13


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The limit of World Bank Investment Loan is 2,550,000 EURO.

- Loans will be used according to Equity/Liability ratio that is proposed in the Appraisal Report.

The Investor Corporation will pay the unpaid Capital (750,000-USD), additionally will increase the

capital 1,400,000-USD.

6. CONCLUSION OF THE APPRAISALS

XYZ Regulator and HEPP Project’s installed capacity is 4.825 MW which is located in Adana city, Seyhan

district. The project is an investment of X Electric Generation Industrial and Trading Corporation.

15,864,878 kWh/year is estimated as a saleable energy. Solvency was calculated from economical and

technical data. Solvency is sufficient according to Development Bank of Turkey’s criterions. Information

of the solvency is displayed in the chart.

YEARS

SOLVENCY

LIQUIDITY

DIFFERENCIATION(USD)

2011 1,54 219.510

2012 1,68 510.518

2013 1,37 311.454

2014 1,40 323.805

2015 1,35 273.851

2016 1,25 182.478

2017 1,29 207.455

2018 1,34 232.633

2019 1,40 257.711

2020 1,46 282.789

2021 1,53 307.866


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4. ECONOMIC EVALUATION

4.1. Description of the Sector and The Product

X Energy Electricity Generation Industry and Trade Corp. generates electricity based on hydroelectric

energy which is one of the renewable energy resources. According to the sectoral classification of the

State Planning Organization (SPO), electricity generation is included in the “Energy Sector”.

4.2. Energy Resources in the World and In Turkey

Energy resources (or original forms of energy) may be classified as fossil, non-renewable energies and

renewable energies. 90% of the requirement for energy resources in the world is met from fossil fuels.

The remaining 10%, on the other hand, is met with such renewable energy resources as hydroelectric,

geothermal, solar, wind, biomass and nuclear resources. Fossil resources are broken down as follows:

petroleum (45%), natural gas (26%), coal (23%), biogas (6%).

Turkey has well-diversified primary energy resources. There are fossil resource reserves such as hard

coal, lignite, asphaltite, crude oil, natural gas, uranium and thorium; and renewable energy resources

such as hydroelectric energy, geothermal energy, solar energy, wind energy, ocean energy and biomass

energy.

Table 1 shows Turkey’s primary energy generation, consumption, export and import quantities between

the years 1995-2007.


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Table 1: Primary Energy Generation, Consumption, Export and Import Quantities

Source: Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources

(*): Thousand tons of oil equivalent

(**): Petrogas Journal, number:58, January-February 2006

(***): Consumption=Generation+Import-Export

According to rapid increase of primary energy consumption of Turkey between 1995-2007, generation

quantities do not increase and country’s dependence of foreign increases gradually. Although percent of

generation/consumption is 42% in 1995, this ratio decrease 22% in 2007.

Today, the most important environmental problem of the world is global warming. Global warming

originates from excessive use of fossil fuels. The fact that fossil fuel burning emissions contain

greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide has triggered a global warming process that may cause climatic

changes with increased greenhouse effect of the atmosphere. The most serious solution of this problem

is to make prevalent the use of new and renewable energy resources. Thus, it will be possible to

preserve as much as possible the fossil fuel reserves that are limited in the world.

Years (TTOE)*

Generation (TTOE)*

Imports (TTOE)*

Exports** (TTOE)*

Consumption*** (TTOE)*

Generation / Consumption

(%)

1995 26,719 38,907 1,947 63,679 42

1996 27,386 44,359 1,883 69,862 39

1997 28,209 47,200 1,630 73,779 38

1998 29,324 46,885 1,500 74,709 39

1999 27,659 48,116 1,500 74,275 37

2000 26,047 56,037 1,584 80,500 32

2001 24,576 53,446 2,620 75,402 33

2002 24,282 57,234 3,162 78,331 31

2003 23,783 64,133 4,090 83,826 28

2004 24,332 67,508 4,022 87,818 28

2005 24,549 73,840 5,171 92,858 26

2006 26,802 80,514 6,572 100,744 27

2007 27,443 103,754 6,926 124,271 22


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4.3. Renewable Energy Resources

Law on Utilization of Renewable Energy Sources for the Purpose of Generating Electrical Energy issued

by the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources in the Official Gazette dated 18.05.2005, numbered

25819 defines the renewable energy resources as follows:

“Wind, solar, geothermal, biomass energy sources, channel- or river-type hydro power plants, or hydro

power plants with a reservoir area of less than 15 square kilometers.”

Unlike the depletable conventional fossil fuel reserves, undepletable natural resource potential is rich in

Turkey. She has a usable and/or economical energy potential of 129.9 TWh/y hydroelectric, 1.8

Mtoe/y geothermal, 25 Mtoe/y solar, 50 TWh/y wind and 32 Mtoe/y biomass energy potential.

Of the renewable resources, conventional biomass energy and hydroelectric energy is used most in

Turkey. Although geothermal energy ranks third, its use is limited. By policy for increasing the electrical

generation of renewable energy resources, rate of wind energy rise gradually nowadays. Use of solar

energy is at symbolic level while ocean, wave motion energy is not used at all.

4.3.1. Hydroelectric Energy and Hydroelectric Potential of Turkey

Hydroelectric energy which ranks first among the renewable resources in the world is the energy

obtained by converting potential energy of water into kinetic energy, and the quantity of energy

depends on the variables of head and flow rate. Exploitable hydroelectric potential worldwide is 14,000

TWh/y. 60% of this capacity is used in Europe and North America. 10% of the said capacity is being used

in the other regions of the world, while 30% thereof awaits exploitation. Share of small hydroelectric

power plants (HEPPs) in the world’s hydroelectric potential is 5-10% in the World, while 2% in Turkey.

But the topographical and hydraulic structure of our country is suitable for this ratio to rise to 10% level.

With her 433 billion kwh technical hydroelectric potential, Turkey has 1% share in the world’s

hydroelectric potential, and approximately 15% share in the economic potential of Europe with her

129.9 billion kwh economically feasible hydroelectric potential. In Turkey, total flow of the water

resources in 26 river basins is at 186 km3/y level. The basins having the biggest shares therein are


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Euphrates (17%), Tigris (11.5%), Eastern Black Sea (8%), East Mediterranean (6%), and Antalya (5.9%).

However, our rivers do not have uniform regimes. River flow may increase 1.5-2 times in excessively wet

years, and drop by half in excessively dry years. Furthermore, it is higher than average in April-June

period, lower than average in June-August period within the year.

Table 2 shows the hydroelectric energy potential of our country as of the year 2007, by status of

projects.

Table 2: Breakdown of Turkey’s Hydroelectric Energy Potential by Status of Projects (February 2007)

Status of Hydroelectric Power Plant Projects

Number of Projects

Installed Capacity

(MW)

Annual Average Energy (GWh)

Share %

Under operation 142 12,788 45,930 36

Under construction 41 4,397 14,351 11

Final design ready 13 2,356 6,919 5

Planning ready 176 7,269 26,415 20

Master plan ready 99 5,260 18,280 14

Preliminary Study Ready 301 4,474 17,559 14

TOTAL POTENTIAL 772 36,544 129,454 100

Source: Electrical Affairs Survey Administration (EİEİ)

4.4. Electricity Sector in Turkey

Until establishment of TEK (Turkish Electricity Authority) in 1970 which was the first institutional

structure in the sector, electricity generation, transmission and distribution were carried out by Etibank

(State Mining-Banking Concern), DSİ (The Directorate General of State Water Works), EİE, private

privileged companies, municipalities and autoproducers. With the establishment of TEK, the mission of

electricity generation and distribution was given to it. With the Cabinet Decision, TEK was split into two

companies in 1993, named Turkish Electricity Distribution Company (TEDAŞ) and Turkish Electricity

Generation-Transmission Company (TEAS). While TEDAŞ is responsible for distribution market, TEAS is

responsible for generation and transmission markets. Conveniently to liberalization process in sector,

third restructure existed in 2001 by the Electricity Market Law no. 4628. Under the law, the electricity


23

market consists of generation, transmission, distribution, wholesale, retail sale, importation and

exportation activities.

With the Cabinet Decision according to the said law, TEAS was split into three independent divisions

named Turkish Electricity Transmission Co. Inc. (TEİAS), Turkish Electricity Trading & Contracting Co. Inc.

(TETAS) and Electricity Generation Co. Inc. (EUAS). With the said law Energy Market Regulatory Board

established and be responsible for the regulations to be made in the electricity sector. It is envisaged

that the transmission line will remain under public monopoly and that generation and distribution

facilities will be gradually transferred to the private sector through privatization. Transmission and

distribution markets will be subject to regulation, while wholesale and retail sale markets will be opened

to competition.

Pursuant to Electricity Market Law no. 4628; generation activities involve conversion of energy resources

into electrical energy at power generation plants. Generation activities are carried out by EUAS, private-

sector generation companies and an autoproducer or a group of autoproducers. License-holder legal

persons in this scope may sell the capacity and/or electrical energy produced by themselves to wholesale

license-holder legal persons, to retail license-holder legal persons and to eligible consumers through

bilateral agreements.

4.5. Supply-Demand Balance in the Electricity Sector

4.5.1. Installed Capacity

Table 3 gives the breakdown by generation institutions of Turkey’s electrical energy installed capacity.

As seen from Table 3, as the year 2008 Turkey’s electrical energy total installed capacity is 41,748 MW,

thermic total is 27,534 MW, geothermal total is 30 MW, wind total is 355 MW and hydroelectric total is

13,829 MW.


24

Tab

le 3

: B

reak

do

wn

of

the

Inst

alle

d C

apac

ity

by

Inst

itu

tio

ns

(

MW

)

INST

ITU

TIO

NS

19

98

1

99

9 2

00

0

20

01

2

002

2

00

3 2

00

4

20

05

2

006

2

00

7

20

08

EUA

S an

d I

ts

Sub

sid

iari

es

The

rmic

1

0,0

46

1

1,4

00

1

1,2

56

1

0,9

36

1

0,9

32

9

,10

8

9,1

00

9

,78

0

12

,54

0

12

,52

5

12

,52

5

Hyd

ro

9,4

98

9

,70

1

9,9

77

1

0,1

09

1

0,1

09

1

0,9

90

1

0,9

95

1

1,1

10

1

1,1

60

1

1,3

35

1

1,4

56

Ge

oth

erm

al

18

1

8

18

1

8

18

1

5

15

1

5

15

1

5

TOTA

L 1

9,5

62

2

1,1

19

21

,25

1

21

,06

3

21

,05

9

20

,11

3 2

0,1

10

2

0,9

05

2

3,7

15

2

3,8

75

2

3,9

81

Mo

bil

e P

lan

ts

The

rmic

--

- 7

9

91

2

97

6

22

7

95

7

80

7

50

7

25

2

63

2

63

Pri

vile

ged

C

om

pan

ies

The

rmic

1

06

--

- --

- --

- --

- --

- --

- --

- --

- --

-

Hyd

ro

61

1

61

1

61

1

61

1

1,1

20

--

- --

--

- --

- --

-

TOTA

L 7

17

61

1 6

11

6

11

1

,12

0

---

--

---

---

---

Au

to p

rod

uce

rs

The

rmic

2

,29

2

2,6

32

2

,95

5

3,3

19

3

,63

4

3,9

00

3

,72

5

3,4

97

3

,15

3

3,1

75

Hyd

ro

14

2

2

39

5

3

10

0

64

0

65

3

56

3

56

3

55

8

Win

d

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

3

1

1

TOTA

L 2

,308

2

,65

6 2

,99

6

3,3

74

3

,73

6

4,5

42

4,3

80

4

,06

3

3,7

17

3

,734

3

,52

5

Ge

ne

rati

on

C

om

pan

ies

+ A

DÜ

AŞ

The

rmic

5

76

1

,44

5

1,4

50

1

,45

0

3,7

60

6

,87

0

8,2

39

9

,57

6

10

,39

1

10

,68

9

Hyd

ro

18

5

20

3

51

8

87

1

88

2

91

9

96

7

1,2

04

1

,30

9

1,4

56

Win

d

7

7

17

1

7

17

1

7

17

1

7

57

1

45

Ge

oth

erm

al

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

23

TOTA

L 7

68

1,6

55

1,9

85

2

,33

8

4,6

59

7

,80

6 9

,22

3

10

,79

7

11

,75

7

12

,31

3

13

,32

9

Tra

nsf

erri

ng

of

Op

era

tio

n R

igh

ts

The

rmic

--

- --

- 3

00

6

20

6

20

6

20

6

20

6

20

6

20

6

20

6

20

Hyd

ro

---

---

30

3

0

30

3

0

30

3

0

30

3

0

30

TOTA

L --

- --

- 3

30

6

50

6

50

6

50

65

0

65

0

65

0

650

6

50

Ad

min

istr

atio

n o

f P

riva

tiza

tio

n

TOTA

L --

--

--

--

--

- 1

,68

0

1,6

80

1

,68

0

1,6

80

--

-

TOTA

L IN

STA

LLED

C

AP

AC

ITY

OF

TUR

KEY

The

rmic

1

3,0

20

1

5,5

56

16

,05

2

16

,62

2

19

,56

8

21

,29

3 2

2,4

64

2

4,2

22

2

7,4

29

2

7,2

72

2

7,5

34

Hyd

ro

10

,30

7

10

,53

7 1

1,1

75

1

1,6

73

1

2,2

41

1

4,2

59

14

,32

5

14

,58

6

13

,06

2

13

,37

9

13

,82

9

Ge

oth

erm

al

18

1

8 1

8

18

1

8

15

15

1

5

15

3

8

30

Win

d

9

9 1

9

19

1

9

19

19

2

0

58

1

46

35

5

TOTA

L 2

3,3

54

2

6,1

20

27

,26

4

28

,33

2

31

,84

6

35

,58

6 3

6,8

23

3

8,8

43

4

0,5

64

4

0,8

35

4

1,7

48

Sou

rce:

Min

istr

y o

f E

ne

rgy

and

Nat

ura

l Re

sou

rce

s, T

EİA

S, E

İE, T

ED

AŞ,

EU

AS.


25

Percentage of public and private sector in electrical energy installed capacity is given in Table 4.

Table 4: Percentage Distribution of Electrical Energy Installed Capacity (%)

Years Public Sector Private Sector Total

2001 74 26 100

2002 66 34 100

2003 57 43 100

2004 55 45 100

2005 54 46 100

2006 58 42 100

2007 58 42 100

2008 57 43 100

Source: Table 3

Activities aimed at liberalization of the market and the reform applications in the energy sector

particularly beginning from 2001 have caused the contribution of the private sector to installed power

capacity to rise from 26% in 2001 to 43% at the end of 2008.

4.5.2. Generation

In Turkey, electrical energy generation is predominantly obtained from thermic power plants, followed

by hydroelectric power plants, the lowest generation contribution is obtained from geothermal and wind

power plants. Table 5 gives breakdown of electrical energy generation in Turkey by generation

institutions.

As the year 2008 electrical energy generation in Turkey increased %3 relative to the previous year and

reached 198.330 GWh. 17% (33.265 GWh) of this generation was received from hydroelectric power

plants, also 82% (164.106 GWh) of this generation received from thermic power plants.


26

Tab

le 5

: Th

e B

reak

do

wn

of

Elec

tric

ity

Ge

ne

rati

on

by

Inst

itu

tio

ns

(G

Wh

)

Sou

rce:

Min

istr

y o

f E

ne

rgy

and

Nat

ura

l Re

sou

rce

s, T

EİA

S, E

İE, T

ED

AŞ,

EU

AS.

INST

ITU

TIO

NS

1

99

9

20

00

2

00

1

200

2

20

03

200

4

20

05

2

006

2

00

7

20

08

EUA

S an

d I

ts

Sub

sid

iari

es

The

rmic

6

0,4

94

6

5,3

87

6

5,8

64

5

0,9

24

3

0,3

91

2

1,8

77

3

1,7

91

4

5,9

43

6

1,2

95

Hyd

ro

31

,73

7

27

,77

2

20

,40

9

26

,30

4

30

,02

7

40

,66

8

35

,04

6

38

,67

9

30

,98

1

Ge

oth

erm

al

81

7

6

90

1

05

8

9

93

9

4

94

5

1

TOTA

L 9

2,3

12

9

3,2

34

8

6,3

63

7

7,3

33

6

0,5

07

62

,63

8

66

,93

1

84

,71

6

92

,32

7

97

,85

9

AD

ÜA

Ş

The

rmic

--

- --

- --

- --

- --

- --

- --

- --

- 1

75

Hyd

ro

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

41

TOTA

L --

- --

- --

- --

- --

- --

- --

- --

- 2

16

32

3

Pri

vile

ged

C

om

pan

ies

Hyd

ro

2,1

69

1

,90

3

1,3

46

4

,50

7

2,0

21

--

- --

- --

- --

-

TOTA

L 2

,16

9

1,9

03

1,3

46

4

,50

7

2,0

21

---

---

---

---

Au

top

rod

uce

rs

The

rmic

1

2,4

93

1

5,8

95

1

7,7

97

2

0,2

25

2

2,5

75

2

2,1

96

1

6,2

47

Hyd

ro

33

6

3

11

2

21

7

54

6

1,5

57

8

35

Win

d

4

4

4

4

5

5

6

TOTA

L 1

2,5

30

1

5,9

62

1

7,9

13

2

0,4

46

2

3,1

27

23

,75

8

17

,08

8

14

,43

7

15

,32

5

15

,32

7

Ge

ner

atio

n

Co

mp

anie

s

The

rmic

8

,46

9

10

,93

6

11

,15

1

17

,08

4

42

,73

1

49

,85

1

62

,73

8

68

,18

8

74

,25

3

Hyd

ro

73

9

1,0

73

2

,07

1

2,5

70

2

,67

4

3,7

97

3

,61

8

Win

d

16

2

9

57

4

4

56

5

2

53

Hyd

ro+W

ind

7

55

1

,10

2

2,1

28

2

,61

4

2,7

30

2

,84

9

3,6

71

4

,48

1

4,3

72

TOTA

L 9

,22

4

12

,03

9

13

,27

9

19

,69

8

45

,26

9 5

3,7

00

6

6,4

09

7

2,6

69

7

8,6

25

8

0,2

14

Mo

bil

e P

lan

ts

The

rmic

2

05

6

43

1

,11

7

3,2

09

2

,55

8

1,2

88

8

78

4

18

7

97

29

3

Tra

nsf

err

ing

of

Op

era

tio

n

Rig

hts

The

rmic

--

1

,07

3

2,6

34

4

,12

0

4,2

56

3

,87

4

4,0

58

Hyd

ro

--

68

7

3

85

6

1

61

6

2

TOTA

L --

1

,141

2

,70

7

4,2

05

4

,31

7 3

,93

5

4,1

20

4,0

60

4

,26

8 4

,31

5

Ad

min

istr

atio

n

of

Pri

vati

zati

on

TO

TAL

--

--

--

--

2,5

91

5

,37

9

6,5

31

--

- --

-

TOTA

L EL

ECT

RIC

ITY

G

ENER

ATI

ON

O

F

TUR

KEY

The

rmic

8

1,6

61

9

3,9

34

9

8,5

63

9

5,5

62

1

05

,10

2

99

,08

6

11

5,7

12

1

31

,83

5

15

5,1

96

1

64

,10

6

Hyd

ro

34

,67

8

30

,87

9

24

,01

1

33

,68

3

35

,32

9

46

,08

3

39

,56

1

44

,24

4

35

,85

1

33

,26

5

Ge

o.+

Win

d

10

1

10

9

15

1

15

3

15

0

14

9

15

3

22

1

51

1

95

9

TOTA

L 1

16

,44

0

12

4,9

22

12

2,7

25

1

29

,39

8

14

0,5

81

150

,69

8

16

1,9

57

176

,30

0

19

1,5

58

198

,33

0


28

48.6% of electrical energy generation accrued at natural gas power plants in 2008. In said year 35,8

billion m3 natural gas was imported and 53% of this natural gas was used for electrical generation.

This situation shows that, for electrical generation we use high rates of natural gas in our country. In

addition to natural gas, taking into consideration of coal and fuel oil, approximately 60% of our

electrical generation accrues from imported resources.

Lignite is second after natural gas in electrical consumption by fuel types. 20% of electrical energy

generation exists from lignite, 18.7% is hydraulic, 6.2% is imported coal, 4% is liquid fuels, %1.6 is

coal and the rest is other sources.

Percentage of public and private sector in electrical energy generation is given in Table 6.

Table 6: Percentage Distribution of Electricity Generation (%)

Years Public Sector Private Sector Total

2001 70 30 100

2002 60 40 100

2003 43 57 100

2004 43 57 100

2005 43 57 100

2006 48 52 100

2007 48 52 100

2008 49 51 100

Source: Table 5

While the share of the public sector in the electrical energy installed capacity was close to its

contribution to generation by years, the public sector realized only 49% of generation in 2008 while

owning 57% of the installed capacity. This stems from low-capacity operation of existing power

plants of EUAS and its subsidiaries and/or decommissioning of some power plants, depending on the

new Electricity Market Law. An increase in favor of private sector is expected in electricity

generation, as in the case of installed capacity.


29

4.5.3. Development of Demand in the Electricity Sector

Development of the gross demand in the electricity sector is given in Table 7.

Table 7: The Gross Demand Of The Electricity Sector (GWh)

Years Gross

Generation Import Export Gross Demand*

1995 86,247 --- 695 85,552

1996 94,862 270 343 94,789

1997 103,296 2,492 271 105,517

1998 111,023 3,299 298 114,024

1999 116,440 2,330 285 116,388

2000 124,922 3,791 437 128,276

2001 122,725 4,579 433 126,871

2002 129,398 3,588 435 132,554

2003 140,581 1,158 588 141,151

2004 150,698 464 1,144 150,018

2005 161,957 636 1,798 160,795

2006 176,300 573 2,236 174,637

2007 191,558 864 2,422 190,000

Source: Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources

(*): Transmission & distribution loss and internal consumption of the power plants are not

included in the gross demand (Gross Demand =Gross Generation+Import-Export)

As will be seen in Table 7, electricity demand is mostly met by generation. Electricity imports do not

exceed 4% of gross demand even in the years when relatively more imports have been made. Turkey

imports electricity from Georgia and Turkmenistan. Exports, on the other hand, increase of late three

years. The main countries to which we export electricity are Azerbaijan and Iraq.


30

4.5.4. Electricity Consumption

Gross electricity demand includes the internal consumption quantities (i.e. internal requirements) of

the power plants as well. The electricity quantity delivered to the interconnected system does not

reach the consumers in whole. The difference in between represents the network losses arising in

the system due to transmission and distribution losses. Consequently, network losses should be

deducted from the electricity quantity delivered to the system in order to calculate the net electricity

consumption. Table 8 gives Turkey’s net electricity consumption quantities by years, which have

been calculated in this manner.

Table 8: Net Electricity Consumption in Turkey (GWh)

Years Gross Demand Domestic

Demand Losses of System Net Consumption

1995 85,552 4,389 13,769 67,394

1996 94,789 4,777 15,855 74,157

1997 105,517 5,050 18,582 81,885

1998 114,024 5,523 20,795 87,705

1999 118,485 5,738 21,545 91,202

2000 128,276 6,224 23,756 98,296

2001 126,871 6,473 23,329 97,069

2002 132,554 5,673 23,932 102,949

2003 141,151 5,332 24,053 111,766

2004 150,018 5,633 23,243 121,142

2005 160,795 6,487 24,044 130,264

2006 174,637 6,757 24,810 143,070

2007 190,000 8,218 26,647 155,135

Source: Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, TEİAS

Starting from the year 1995, Turkey’s net electricity consumption has increased, excepting the year

2001. In 2001, generation and consequently consumption declined due to the crisis experienced in

Turkey. There was a 1% drop in gross demand and net consumption. Gross demand annually increase

6.9% also net consumption annually increase 7.2% between the years 1995-2007.


31

Turkey’s sector based electrical energy consumption is given in the Table 9.

Table 9: Electrical Energy Consumption on Sector Basis

Years

House Commerce Industry Other Total

GWh % GWh % GWh % GWh % GWh

1998 20,034 23 7,734 9 46,139 53 13,798 16 87,705

1999 22,584 25 8,208 9 46,480 51 13,929 15 91,202

2000 23,888 24 9,339 10 48,842 50 16,227 17 98,296

2001 23,557 24 9,908 10 46,989 48 16,616 17 97,070

2002 23,559 23 10,867 11 50,489 49 18,032 18 102,948

2003 25,195 23 12,872 12 55,099 49 18,600 17 111,766

2004 27,619 23 15,656 13 59,566 49 18,301 15 121,142

2005 30,935 24 18,544 14 62,294 48 18,490 14 130,263

2006 34,466 24 20,256 14 68,027 48 20,321 14 143,070

2007 36,476 24 23,141 15 73,795 48 21,724 14 155,135

Source: TEDAŞ

As seen in Table 9, industrial sector takes the most share from electrical energy consumption.

Generally electrical energy consumptions shares in total electric consumption do not change year to

year.

4.6. Electricity Demand Forecast

Preparing demand forecasts of the electricity sector in Turkey is done by the Research-Planning-

Coordination Department of TEİAS (Turkish Electricity Transmission Corp.).

Table 10 gives generation-consumption balance showing how the electrical energy demand foreseen

for the next 10 years will be met by taking into consideration the generation facilities which exist,

which are under construction, for which license has been issued up to December 2007.

As seen on Table 10, for some years energy demand exceeds energy supply. Thus

in these years stand-by energy turns into negative value.


32

TAB

LE 1

0: D

EMA

ND

AN

D S

UP

PLY

BA

LAN

CE

PR

OJE

CTI

ON

(2

00

8-2

01

7)

10

.1.

Re

ceiv

ing

the

To

tal

Dem

and

Wit

h T

ota

l P

roje

ct G

ene

rati

on

Cap

acit

y o

f P

lan

ts T

hat

Exi

sts,

in

Op

era

tio

n ,

Un

de

r C

on

stru

ctio

n a

nd

Tak

en

Ou

t

Lice

nse

(G

WH

)

YEARS

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

1.Energy Demand

204,000

219,013

236,182

253,837

272,812

293,205

315,123

338,679

363,695

390,559

2.E

xis

ting C

apacity

238,3

06

235,8

67

235,4

88

234,6

89

234,8

40

234,4

27

232,3

83

232,9

57

233,5

56

229,1

16

3. Sta

nd-b

y E

nerg

y (%

) (2

/1)

16.8

7.7

-0

.3

-7.5

-1

3.9

-2

0.0

-2

6.3

-3

1.2

-3

5.8

-4

1.3

4.C

ap. U

nder C

onstruction

780

2,3

84

5,2

60

5,4

08

11,2

88

11,2

88

15,1

21

16,8

26

16,8

26

16,8

26

5.

Exis

ting C

apacity +

Cap.

Under

Construction

239,0

86

238,2

51

240,7

48

240,0

97

246,1

28

245,7

15

247,5

04

249,7

83

250,3

82

245,9

42

6. S

tand-b

y E

nerg

y (%

) (5

/1)

17.2

8.8

1.9

-5

.4

-9.8

-1

6.2

-2

1.5

-2

6.2

-3

1.2

-3

7.0

7.C

ap. Taken O

ut Lic

ense

2,1

68

7,5

69

18,7

22

36,4

94

51,3

74

58,7

30

61,0

62

61,0

62

61,0

62

61,0

62

8.

Exis

ting C

apacity + C

ap.

Under

Construction+

Cap.

Taken

Out

Lic

ense

241,2

54

245,8

20

259,4

7 0

276,5

9 1

297,5

0 2

304,4

4 5

308,5

6 6

310,8

4 5

311,4

4 4

307,0

04

9. S

tand-b

y E

nerg

y (%

) (8

/1)

18.3

12.2

9.9

9.0

9.1

3.8

-2

.1

-8.2

-1

4.4

-2

1.4

10.A

dded C

apacity

350

5,6

14

23,1

07

47,1

83

71,8

27

96,9

07

124,2

87

153,3

37

172,3

89

196,0

95

11.

Exis

ting C

apacity +

Cap.

Under

Construction+

Cap.

Taken

Out

Lic

ense+ A

dded C

apacity

241,6

04

251,4

34

282,5

77

323,7

74

369,3

29

401,3

52

432,8

53

464,1

82

483,8

33

503,0

99

12. Sta

nd-b

y E

nerg

y (%

) (1

1/1

) 18.4

14.8

19.6

27.6

35.4

36.9

37.4

37.1

33.0

28.8


33

10

.2.

Re

ceiv

ing

the

To

tal

De

man

d W

ith

To

tal

Rel

iab

le G

ene

rati

on

Cap

acit

y o

f P

lan

ts T

hat

Exi

sts,

in

Op

era

tio

n ,

Un

de

r C

on

stru

ctio

n a

nd

Tak

en

Ou

t

Lice

nse

(G

WH

)

YEARS

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

1.Energy Demand

204,000

219,013

236,182

253,837

272,812

293,205

315,123

338,679

363,695

390,559

2.E

xis

ting C

apacity

209,5

81

209,8

16

210,6

0

211,0

09

218,6

70

216,9

54

216,2

13

216,2

67

217,3

86

212,9

38

3. S

tand-b

y E

nerg

y (%

) (2

/1)

2.7

-4

.2

-10.8

-1

6.9

-1

9.8

-2

6.0

-3

1.4

-3

6.1

-4

0.2

-4

5.5

4.C

ap. U

nder C

onstruction

496

1,4

94

3,2

75

3,3

26

8,9

32

8,9

32

11,3

91

12,5

20

12,5

20

12,5

20

5.

Exis

ting C

apacity +

Cap.

Under

Construction

210,0

77

211,3

10

213,8

85

214,3

35

227,6

02

225,8

86

227,6

04

228,7

87

229,9

06

225,4

58

6. S

tand-b

y E

nerg

y (%

) (5

/1)

3.0

-3

.5

-9.4

-1

5.6

-1

6.6

-2

3.0

-2

7.8

-3

2.4

-3

6.8

-4

2.3

7.C

ap. Taken O

ut Lic

ence

1,9

25

6,5

54

15,1

96

28,9

34

40,7

24

46,0

26

47,3

40

47,3

40

47,3

40

47,3

40

8.

Exis

ting C

apacity + C

ap.

Under

Construction+

Cap.

Taken

Out

Lic

ense

212,0

01

217,8

64

229,0

8 0

243,2

6 8

268,3

2 6

271,9

1 2

274,9

4 3

276,1

2 6

277,2

4 6

272,7

97

9. S

tand-b

y E

nerg

y (%

) (8

/1)

3.9

-0

.5

-3.0

-4

.2

-1.6

-7

.3

-12.8

-1

8.5

-2

3.8

-3

0.2

10.A

dded C

apacity

175

5,2

64

21,2

85

43,2

67

65,5

48

88,0

24

112,6

68

139,2

43

155,9

65

177,3

55

11.

Exis

ting C

apacity +

Cap.

Under

Construction+

Cap.

Taken

Out

Lic

ense+ A

dded C

apacity

212,1

76

223,1

28

250,3

65

286,5

35

333,8

74

359,9

36

387,6

11

415,3

69

433,2

11

450,1

52

12. Sta

nd-b

y E

nerg

y (%

) (1

1/1

) 4.0

1.9

6.0

12.9

22.4

22.8

23.0

22.6

19.1

15.3


34

TEİAS has reached the following conclusions from the detailed calculations of Table 10.

• Electrical energy demand increased at an average rate of 8.3% per year in last decade and is

forecast to reach 236.1 billion kwh in the year 2010, 390.5 billion kwh in the year 2017. Results of

project generation-consumption power balance indicate that stand-by power will become minus

in the year 2010. Also reliable generation-consumption power balance indicate that stand-by

power will become minus in the year 2009.

• In the project generation-consumption balances prepared according to existing plants, stand-by

generation will decrease by the end of 2008, become minus in the year 2010 (-0.3%) and will

reach to -41.3% in the year 2017.

• In the project generation-consumption balances prepared according to existing and under

construction plants, stand-by generation will decrease by the end of 2008, become minus in the

year 2011 (-5.4%) and will reach to -37% in the year 2017.

• In the project generation-consumption balances prepared according to existing, under

construction, taken out license plants, stand-by generation will decrease by the end of 2008,

become minus in the year 2014 (-2.1%) and will reach to -21.4% in the year 2017.

• In the relaible generation-consumption balances prepared according to existing plants, stand-by

generation will decrease by the end of 2008, become minus in the year 2009 (-4.2%) and will

reach to -45.5% in the year 2017.

• In the project generation-consumption balances prepared according to existing and under

construction plants, stand-by generation will decrease by the end of 2008, become minus in the

year 2009 (-3.5%) and will reach to -42.3% in the year 2017.

• In the project generation-consumption balances prepared according to existing, under

construction and taken out license plants, stand-by generation will decrease by the end of 2008,

become minus in the year 2009 (-0.5%) and will reach to -30.2% in the year 2017.

4.7. Information About The Company

X Energy Electricity Generation Industry and Trade Corp. will generate electricity from the XYZ

Regulator and HEPP located in Seyhan County in Adana province. The HEPP will be established on

Seyhan River.

According to license mentioned; installed capacity is 4.60 MW. But in the technical evaluation part of

the project it is calculated 4.825 MW.


35

Pursuant to article 18 of the License Regulation, the generation license is issued for a minimum of 10

years, and a maximum of 49 years at a time. According to article 12 of the License Regulation, the

legal entities applying for licenses for construction of facilities based on domestic natural resources

and renewable energy resources annual license fee is not collected for the first 8 years following the

facility completion date inserted in their respective licenses for the generation facilities based on

renewable energy resources. If there occurs a delay exceeding 10% of the facility completion period,

indicated in the generation, the licensees shall not benefit from the exception of not paying annual

license fees for the first 8 years as indicated in the Regulation.

Furthermore, pursuant to article 38 of the said Regulation, TEİAS and/or distribution-license-holder

legal entities are obligated to give priority to the generation facilities based on local natural resources

and renewable energy resources in making connection to the system.

4.8. Customer Portfolio

According to the License Regulation, customers consist of the following legal persons: Wholesale

companies, retail sale companies, distribution companies holding retail sale license (TEDAŞ), eligible

consumers.

At present, TEDAŞ is the only distribution company holding retail sale license in Turkey. Pursuant to

the last paragraph of article 30 of the License Regulation, companies may sell the whole surplus

energy to TEDAŞ.

4.9. Tariffs and Pricing

The whole of the generation quantities taken as basis for revenue calculated after deduction of

technical losses from the average generation quantities of HEPPs is offered for sale. As is known,

electricity is a product which should be consumed as soon as it is generated and consequently, it is

not storable in this sense.

According to the technical evaluation part of the project, installed capacity is 4.825 MW and

15,.864,878 kwh energy will be generated annually average.


36

Pursuant to EMRA Committee Ruling published on Official Gazette dated 30/12/2008 and numbered

27096, Turkey Average Electricity Total Selling Price for 2008 is defined as 12.82 Ykr/kwh.

Pursuant to the Electric Market Law, priority is given to purchase of electricity amounts put into

market by power plants generating electricity from renewable energy sources. Therefore, TEDAŞ is

responsible of purchasing all of electricity generated from renewable energy sources. So the

generation quantity taken as basis for revenue (15.864.878 kwh) at XYZ HEPP can be sold to TEDAŞ

from Turkey Average Electricity Total Selling Price.

Table 11. X Energy Corp. Electricity Selling Price

GENERATION QUANTITY

TAKEN AS BASIS FOR

REVENUE (kwh)

SELLING PRICE

(ykr/kwh)

SELLING PRICE

(usd/kwh)

15.864.878 12.82 0.0833

(*):Exchange rate of Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey dated on 10.04.2009, 1 USD=1,5397 TL

4.10. Economic Capacity Utilization Ratios

The search for consumers, depending on market conditions, rival firms, sales and competition

possibilities, is not related with how to sell the power generated, but with how high a profit margin it

can be sold. In economic sense, there is no market share limit to the sales quantities; the only limit is

the generation quantities of power plants. As detailed in the technical examination and evaluation

section of the report, since generation quantity of HEPPs depends on flow rate, it can differ from

year to year, as well as among months. Therefore, the quantity that can be generated is calculated as

an average figure. Since there is no economic limit to the sale of the said quantities, the whole of the

average generation quantities calculated in the technical examination part can be sold. Due to all

these reasons, no economic capacity utilization rate is estimated for XYZ HEPP and it is foreseen that

the whole of the generation quantities taken as basis for revenue, as stated in the section on

technical examination and evaluation, can be sold.


37

5.

FIN

AN

CIA

L EV

ALU

ATI

ON

5 .

3 .

PR

OFO

RM

A IN

CO

ME

ST

AT

EM

EN

T

(U

SD

)

ITEM

S /

YEARS

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Capaci

ty U

sage R

atios

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

1 -

Net

Sale

s Revenue

660.4

78

1.3

20.9

57

1.3

20.9

57

1.3

20.9

57

1.3

20.9

57

1.3

20.9

57

2 -

Cost

of Ele

ctrici

ty S

old

603.1

43

897.8

53

811.3

76

778.4

87

745.5

99

712.7

10

3 -

Earn

ings

Befo

re T

axes

(1-2

)57.3

35

423.1

04

509.5

81

542.4

69

575.3

58

608.2

47

4 -

Tax L

oss

Carr

y-F

orw

ard

100.0

99

5 -

Invest

ment

and o

ther

allo

wance

s0

00

00

0

6 -

Corp

ora

tion T

ax B

ase

(3-(

4+

5+

6))

0423.1

04

509.5

81

542.4

69

575.3

58

608.2

47

7 -

Corp

ora

tion T

ax (

7*%

20)

084.6

21

101.9

16

108.4

94

115.0

72

121.6

49

8 -

Earn

ings

Aft

er

Taxes

(3-(

8+

9))

57.3

35

338.4

83

407.6

64

433.9

76

460.2

87

486.5

98

9 -

Tax L

oss

Carr

y F

orw

ard

100.0

99

00

00

0

10 -

Legal Rese

rves

((3-1

1)*

%5)

021.1

55

25.4

79

27.1

23

28.7

68

30.4

12

11 -

Div

idends

((10-(

11+

12))

*%

5(2

.138)

15.8

66

19.1

09

20.3

43

21.5

76

22.8

09

12 -

Reta

ined E

arn

ings

(10-(

12+

13+

14))

59.4

73

301.4

62

363.0

76

386.5

09

409.9

43

433.3

76


38

5 . 4 . PROFORMA CASH FLOW STATEMENT

(USD

)

CASH

IN

-OU

T F

LOW

S /

YEARS

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

CU

R100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

A -

Cash

In

flow

s7

56

.22

01

.51

2.4

39

1.5

12

.43

91

.51

2.4

39

1.4

37

.40

81

.32

0.9

57

1

- N

et

Opera

ting (

Genera

tion)

Inco

me (

a-b

-c)

660.4

78

1.3

20.9

57

1.3

20.9

57

1.3

20.9

57

1.3

20.9

57

1.3

20.9

57

a .

Opera

ting ınco

me

660.4

78

1.3

20.9

57

1.3

20.9

57

1.3

20.9

57

1.3

20.9

57

1.3

20.9

57

-

Dom

est

ic S

laes

660.4

78

1.3

20.9

57

1.3

20.9

57

1.3

20.9

57

1.3

20.9

57

1.3

20.9

57

-

Export

0

00

0

0

0

b .

Sto

ck D

iffe

rence

0

00

0

0

0

c

. M

.B.M

.D.

Satış

Tuta

rı0

00

0

0

2

- K

.K.D

.P.

+ T

eşv

ik P

rim

i

3

- D

educt

able

VAT

95.7

41

191.4

83

191.4

83

191.4

83

116.4

52

B -

Cash

Ou

tflo

ws

53

6.7

10

1.0

01

.92

21

.20

0.9

86

1.1

88

.63

51

.16

3.5

57

1.1

38

.47

9

1

- N

et

Opera

ting E

xpense

s (a

-b-c

)128.5

83

257.1

65

257.1

65

257.1

65

257.1

65

257.1

65

a .

Opera

ting E

xpense

s128.5

83

257.1

65

257.1

65

257.1

65

257.1

65

257.1

65

b .

Sto

k F

ark

ı0

00

0

0

0

c

. M

.B.M

.D.

Satış

Tuta

rı0

00

0

0

2

-O

blig

ato

ry P

aym

ents

(a+

b+

c)0

(2.1

38)

100.4

87

121.0

25

128.8

36

136.6

48

a .

Taxes

084.6

21

101.9

16

108.4

94

115.0

72

b .

Div

idend P

ayout

(2.1

38)

15.8

66

19.1

09

20.3

43

21.5

76

c

. Đk

ram

iye

00

0

0

0

3

- I

nst

allm

ent

Paym

ents

408.1

27

746.8

95

843.3

33

810.4

44

777.5

56

744.6

67

a .

Inte

rest

Paym

ents

208.1

27

374.2

54

287.7

78

254.8

89

222.0

00

189.1

11

b .

Princi

pal Paym

ents

200.0

00

372.6

40

555.5

56

555.5

56

555.5

56

555.5

56

C -

Net

Cash

Flo

w (

A-B

)219.5

10

510.5

18

311.4

54

323.8

05

273.8

51

182.4

78

D -

Deb

t C

overag

e R

ati

o (

A-(

B1

+B

2+

B3

)) /

B4

1,5

4

1,6

8

1,3

7

1,4

0

1,3

5

1,2

5

E -

Gro

ss C

ash

Flo

w (

A-B

2)

627.6

37

1.2

55.2

74

1.2

55.2

74

1.2

55.2

74

1.1

80.2

43

1.0

63.7

92

1,5

3

1,4

81

,37

1,3

3

1,3

0

Deb

t C

overag

e R

ati

o c

alc

ula

ted

on

a t

hree y

ears

mo

vin

g a

verag

e


39

5 . 5 . THE STATEMENT OF COST OF ELECTRICITY SOLD

(USD

)

CO

ST /

YEARS

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

CU

R

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

Tota

l O

pera

ting E

xpense

s 128.5

83

257.1

65

257.1

65

257.1

65

257.1

65

257.1

65

Depre

ciation

266.4

34

266.4

34

266.4

34

266.4

34

266.4

34

266.4

34

To

tal

Pro

du

cti

on

Co

st

39

5.0

16

52

3.5

99

52

3.5

99

52

3.5

99

52

3.5

99

52

3.5

99

Sto

ck D

iffe

rence

(-)

00

00

0

0

Selli

ng E

xpense

00

00

0

0

Fin

anci

al Expense

s208.1

27

374.2

54

287.7

78

254.8

89

222.0

00

189.1

11

Co

st

of

Ele

ctr

icir

y S

old

60

3.1

43

89

7.8

53

81

1.3

76

77

8.4

87

74

5.5

99

71

2.7

10

5 . 6 . NET PRESENT VALUE AND INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN

(U

SD

)

Discount Rate

8%

ITEM

S /

YEARS

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Invest

ment

Expenditure

s6.9

24.6

09

Earn

ings

Befo

re T

ax

57.3

35

423.1

04

509.5

81

542.4

69

575.3

58

608.2

47

Depre

ciation

266.4

34

266.4

34

266.4

34

266.4

34

266.4

34

266.4

34

Taxes

to b

e p

aid

00

84.6

21

101.9

16

108.4

94

115.0

72

Fin

anci

al Expense

s 208.1

27

374.2

54

287.7

78

254.8

89

222.0

00

189.1

11

Net

Cash

Flo

w(6

.924.6

09)

531.8

96

1.0

63.7

92

979.1

71

961.8

76

955.2

98

948.7

20

1,0

01,0

81,1

7

1,2

6

1,3

6

1,4

71,5

9

Dis

counte

d N

et

Cash

Flo

w(6

.924.6

09)

492.4

96

912.0

30

777.2

98

707.0

07

650.1

60

597.8

55

Net

Presen

t V

alu

e

1.9

19

.82

3 1

12

34

5

6

(6.9

24.6

09)

(6.4

32.1

13)

(5.5

20.0

83)

(4.7

42.7

85)

(4.0

35.7

78)

(3.3

85.6

18)

(2.7

87.7

63)


40

Debt Coverage Ratio

2011

1,5

4219.5

10

2012

1,6

8510.5

18

1,5

32013

1,3

7311.4

54

1,4

82014

1,4

0323.8

05

1,3

72015

1,3

5273.8

51

1,3

32016

1,2

5182.4

78

1,3

02017

1,2

9207.5

55

1,2

92018

1,3

4232.6

33

1,3

42019

1,4

0257.7

11

1,4

02020

1,4

6282.7

89

1,4

62021

1,5

3307.8

66


41

TOTA

L IN

VES

TMEN

T C

OST

AN

D A

NN

UA

L B

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