prepare for the worst expect the best

8/8/2019 Prepare for the Worst Expect the Best

1/12


2/12

1.0 Introductiony Preparing for the worst, expecting the best,- proverb

y current 21st centuries inhabitant of the Globe - irreversibledestruction mainly due natural and manmade disasters.

y Disaster as A serious disruption of the functioning of society, causingwidespread human, material, or environmental losses which exceedthe ability of affected society to cope using only its own resources

(United Nations, 1991).y Preparedness can be define as Those activities, programs, and systems

that exist prior to an emergency that are used to support and enhanceresponse to an emergency or disaster. (Kapucu N. & Wart M., N.2008).

y

Preparation is about being ready for whatever happens as best as youcan. Fear is temporary, Regret is forever. You should be constantlythinking of what you would do if something worst going to happen.

You should creating plans, testing them in mental scenarios andreforming them for improvement ;

Louis Pasteur quote once that Fortune favors the prepared mind.


3/12

2.0 Disaster Classification

Source : assification of disaster (SchenkerWicki A., et al.(2009)


4/12

Since 1955 almost 270 large natural disasters have been recorded. Approximately 1.8million people have lost their live shows a clearly increasing number of large

natural disasters (Schenker Wicki A., et al.(2009)


5/12

POTENTIAL

IMPACT

PROBABILITY/LIKELIHOOD

NUCLEAR

WEAPON

IMPROVISED

NUCLEAR

DEVICE

RADIOACTIVEMATERIAL

CHEMICAL AGENT

ORTOXIC

INDUSTRIAL

CHEMICAL

BIOLOGICAL

AGENT

Probability vs. Potential

Impact


6/12

The potential impact of a biological weapon can be massive. Simplylooking in the past history, when an outbreak of disease such as

smallpox or plague took place a small outbreak can turn intoepidemics and even pandemics, depending on the infectious natureof the biological weapon. Biological weapon would be the worst thatone could imagine.

Ever since 9/11,2001, the united States taking all the reasonable stepsto counter such biological weapon of mass destruction. Neverthelessthe level of preparedness is still questionable. Have they preparedforthe worst to expect the best?

( Source : Samia Amin and Markus Goldstein, The Data against natural disaster, The word Bank, 2008)

The Disaster Phase


7/12

HighlandTowers Condominium tragedy On May 18th. 1994Mechanism of Great Inland Disaster Management on scene which is to

be functioning under the National Security Division, PrimeMinister Department.

This mechanism shall be functioning on scene to streamline andadminister actions to be taken in any major disaster byrescue agencies and Special Malaysian Disaster Assistance

and RescueT

eam (SMART)

in order th

at action carried out inswift, efficient and effective manner.National Security Council(NSC) Directive No.20 on 11 May 1997 came

into effect.

Provide guidelines on the management of disasters including theresponsibilities and functions of the various agencies under an

integrated emergency management system that shall be functioningon scene to streamline and administer actions swiftly, efficiently,effectively.

The exercise and training on timely and regular basis on this directive shows thegovernments level of seriousness in Preparing for the Worst, Expectingthe Best. Once should always remember the regular exercise andtraining such as drills involving all the relevant agencies, NGO, the

general population as risk will eventually will be able to produce th

ebest result in worst case scenario.


8/12

Countries around the world with asistance from their NIOSH and guidance from

ILO has established OSH legislations that suit their country to ensure

such emergency preparation exist and implemented. In Malaysia-OSHA 94 is to develop safer and healthier workplace at

organizational level. The unique principles and philosophy of Self

Regulation, Consultation and Co-operation which reflected in the OSH

law is emphasize the prevention and preparation for the worst to expect

the best.

Occupational Safety and Health CIMAH ( Control of Industrial Major Hazards)

Regulations 1996, further capture the meaning of this proverb Prepare forthe worst and ex ect the best .

An emergency in any type organization is a possible potential life threatening

situation, Usually occur in all of a sudden and unexpectedly.The ability to respond to such emergency is related to the manner of the

preparation.

Preparation is a Combination of planning, practicing, evaluating, and adjusting tospecific circumstances.

A quick and proper response which results because of proper preparation-canprevent panic, decrease the likelihood of injury and damage, and bringthe situation under control in a timely manner.

Workplace is immune to emergencies, preparing for them is critical. When youprepare for the worst, than you can expect the least best, which meansyou can minimize the human causalities and properties damages.


9/12

6.0 Preparing For the Worst, Expecting the

Best in Pandemic Flu Scenarios.Influenza A virus subtype H1N1 (A (H1N1)) virus is currently

the greatest pandemic disease threat to humankind.Influenza A is unique among the major pandemic threats

that could potentially infect 30% of the worlds populationwithin a matter of months.Even at a conservative overall mortality rate of 2%, it would

result in around 135 million deaths worldwide within thefirst year of a new pandemic outbreak.

The 19181920H1N1Spanish Flu, which killed 40 millionpeople worldwide is informative as a worst case scenariofor a flu pandemic. The 19571958 H2N2 Asian Flu with1.5 million fatalities worldwide and the 19681969 H3N2Hong Kong Flu with 1 million fatalities worldwide (Gatherer D. 2009).


10/12

Flu Pandemic - HistoryName of andemic Date Deaths Subtype involved

Asiatic (Russian) Flu 188990 1 million possibly H2N2

Spanish Flu 191820 50 million H1N1

Asian Flu 195758 1.5 to 2 million H2N2

Hong Kong Flu 196869 1 million H3N2

Swine Flu As of 22 Nov 09 7,826 novel H1N1( Source : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic_influenzalu (19181920))

As of August 21, 2009 the unofficial number of cases reported in the media for

Malaysia is 5,876 so far. The first death reorted on 23 July, 2009 and so far

there have been 77 deaths reported until 21stAugust 2009.The cases are still reported daily and being treated for influenza like illnesses. On

Nov 23, 2009 the WHO has described the Influenza A(H1N1) situation in

Malaysia as stable compared to the situation in other countries in the

northern hemisphere which are now facing a second wave of the pandemic

but we Malaysian at all level should not take things for granted and we must

prepare for the worst and expect the best in dealing Pandemic Flu waves.


11/12


12/12

An emergency be it accident, disaster or catastrophe; either man made

or natural is usually occur in all of a sudden and unexpectedly. Theability to respond to such situation is much related to the manner ofthe preparation. Preparation here involves a combination ofplanning, practicing, evaluating, and adjusting to specificcircumstances from individual, family to various levels untilinternational.

A quick and proper response which results because of properpreparation-can prevent panic, decrease the likelihood of injury anddamage, and bring the situation under control in a timely manner.Since none of us is immune to emergencies, preparing for them iscritical.

When you prepare for the worst, than you can expect the least best,which means you can minimize the human causalities andproperties damages. Preparing for the worst, and expecting the bestis a proverb not only for preach but must put into practice by eachand everyhuman being who want to protect themselves from anytype of disaster be it natural or manmade. One should believe inwhere there is a will, there is a way.

7.0 CONCLUSION

prepare for the worst expect the best

Documents