Preparation of IBF-Textual and graphical format using recent

cases –Hindcast mode

Dr. R.K. Jenamani

Mr Shobhit KatiyarDr. Sashikant

Mr. Krishna Mishra Mr. Surendra Pratap Singh

Objective

• Shared Experiences

• Trigger thoughts for effective IBF and RBW to generate at High Tempo (Nowcast, SR, ER) and Spatial(Dist/Not Sub-Div)(like cyclone SOP and stake hodlers)

➢ Maharashtra Heavy rainfall spell and associated hazards and impact 14-24 July-Dr Jenamani

➢ Raj-MP flood 29 July-8 Aug 2021 –Sri Krishan Mishra

➢ Delhi Heavy rain episode 21 Aug 2021 and Dehradun Heavy Rain 24-25 Aug 2021-Mr Shobhit Katiya

Recreating IBF for Maharashtra Flood 14-24 July

• Event Characteristics (Scale, intensity and duration) in Forecast Products

• Lead time and certainty of the event

• Impact at the similar scale in the past

Unusual long Heavy rainfall spell of 29 July-7 August 2021 over western parts of WMP and Eastern parts of E Raj

• Event-Heavy rainfall long spell around 10 days with cumulative 80-120cm

• Hazards caused-

➢Primary-Flash flood, Riverine flood

➢Secondary – Long term inundation affecting lives further

• Impact ?

Maharashtra Flood: 14-23 July 2021(10-days of unusual heavy rainfall spell-1200-1800mm rainfall )

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Rainfall during 14-23 July 2021

120cm

140cm-Matheron

150cm- GAGANBAWADA

180cm-MWR

LONAVALA_AGRI -120cm

Extreme spells 14-23 July 2021

14-23 July 2021(10-days of unusual heavy rainfall spell-1200-1800mm rainfall )

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Rainfall over Mahabaleswar

Rainfall overMah…

Components of IB assessments of Maharashtra Flood 2021

• Event- 120-180cm in 10days- Heavy rainfall unusual higher and longer spell-Climate extremes)

• Period-14-25 July 2021 • Hazards caused-➢ Primary-Flash flood, Land slides, Riverine flood ➢ Secondary – Long term inundation affecting lives further • A landslide in Talai village in Maharashtra's Raigad district killed 38

people on Thursday. Heavy rainfall over• Three separate incidents of landslides in Mahad tehsil, which took place

on Thursday, is likely to rise, police said. While 32 bodies were found at one spot in Talai, four others were recovered from another location in Sakharsutarwadi village. Fifteen people have been reportedly rescued so far, but over 30 to 35 more are feared trapped under the debris, officials say.

District affected Raigad, Ratnagiri, Sindhudurg, Satara, Sangli and Kolhapur

Village Affected: 1020

Lives lost Death toll 228, highest in Raigad with 95"

Impact on Livestock 28,700 poultry deaths and around 300 other animal deaths in

Kolhapur, Sangli, Satara and Sindhudurg districts

Crops 2 lakh (200,000) hectares of crops have been damaged in the

floods

Infrastructural

facilities were

impacted and

damaged

➢ around 800 bridges have been submerged

➢ drinking water supply of around 700 villages was affected

➢ about 14,700 electric transformers, affecting the power

supply to nearly 9.5 lakh (950,000) consumers.

Landslides ➢ 5-6 landslides were reported

Maharashtra 14-23 July 2021(10-days) of unusual heavy rainfall spell

when 1200-1800mm rainfall was observed - Chiplun, Maharashtra worst affected –I

Impact Table

All in cms 15-23 July ACT NORMAL

K and Goa 83 31.4Ma Mah 14 6.6

29 July- 7 Aug E Raj 23 7WMP 20 10

Mumbai- 15-22 July 2021(a week of unusual spell-80-1200mm rainfall)

• A. 15-16 July- SCZ-25.2cm Convective-Start of event with max in 2-3 hours at early morning

• 16-17 July-11cm Thane• B.17-18- 20-24 cm over Colaba and SCZ with max at 1-3am

(occurrence of a VERY INTENSE SPELL over VIKHROLI-CHEMBUR areas of Mumbai in the early hours on Sunday with 20-22cm)

• C. 18-19-8-10 cm- Main Mumbai IMD, but sub-urban SANPADA-19CM, Thane and Ullahsnagar-20-22cm

• D.19-20- Rammandir-21cm, Kalyan 37 and Ullahsnagar-28cm• 20-21-8-11cm with moderate over the main city IMD stations

and Sanpada 11 cm • 21-22- Mahahlaxmi 14cm, Colaba-10cm, 13-18cm Kalyan and

Thane

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COLABA - IMD OBSY SANTACRUZ - IMD OBSY

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KALYAN

THANE

Synoptic evident

➢16-19 July spell• EAST –WEST SHEAR ZONE near Konkan area• Off-shore trough only Maharashtra-Karnatak coast• Monsoon trough shifted over south Gujarat • Circulation over the NEAR BY AREA ➢20-22 July• Off-shore trough only Maharashtra coast-Kerala

coast with more PG• Monsoon trough over North Raj-Punjab• Stronger lower level westerly and LOW formation

Rajasthan/MP Impact (August, 2021)

➢Madhya Pradesh's Gwalior-Chambal region-1,225 villages acrossShivpuri, Sheopur, Datia, Gwalior, Guna, Bhind and Morena

➢Rajastha Districts/Towns Affected: Dholpur, Baran, Swai Madhopur,Karauli, Jhalawar, Dausa, Tonk, Bundi, Kota, Jhalawar

1. Inundation and water logging2. Several Kaccha houses collapsed3. Wall collapsed

Pls see

• PPT of Sri Shasi, Krishan and Sri Shobhit

THANKS