preliminary report on verification scores for malaria and the climate drivers demeter to ensembles
DESCRIPTION
Preliminary report on verification scores for malaria and the climate drivers DEMETER to ENSEMBLES. Andy Morse , Cyril Caminade and Anne Jones Department of Geography, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom [email protected]. Running Order. Introduction - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse
Preliminary report on verification scores for malaria and the climate drivers DEMETER
to ENSEMBLES
Andy Morse, Cyril Caminade and Anne Jones
Department of Geography,University of Liverpool,
Liverpool,United Kingdom
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse
Running Order
• Introduction• Malaria verification – ENSEMBLES stream II –limited area• Climate verification –
ENSEMBLES stream II - all Africa•Summary and Way Forward
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse
Introduction
• Normally use BSS and ROCSS to work with probabilistic data
• Running RMSE, ACC and MSSS deterministically on ensemble mean
• Developed/modified scripts for skill scores in NCAR Command Language (NCL) – share & cross validate?
• Work not complete – will report via ENSEMBLES website
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse
Introduction – ROCSS malaria modelling
Tier-2 malaria runs - ROC Skill Scores Above Median Event
DEMETER driven LMM. Areas of high interannual variability were selected and persisted forecast skill was removed from the scores.
Jones, A. and Morse, A. (2007) CLIVAR Exchanges, 43
May 4-6JAS
Nov 4-6FMA
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse
Validation of Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM) runs
forced by ENSEMBLES stream2 seasonal forecasts
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse
ENSEMBLES –stream 2
LMM dynamic malaria mode forced with daily Tx and pptn.
The domain: Botswana: [27.5°S-17.5°S] [17.5°E-30°E]
Table of experiments:
Expid name Project Institution/Model Period Start date (lead months)
Ensemble members
ecmf ENSEMBLES ECMWF IFS-HOPE
1960-2006
Nov 1 (14) 9
egrr ENSEMBLES UK Met-Office HadGem2
1970-2005
Nov 1 (14) 9
lfpw ENSEMBLES Meteo-France ARPEGE4/OPA
1960-2005
Nov 1 (14) 9
ingv ENSEMBLES INGV ECHAM5/OPA8.2
1960-2005
Nov 1 (7) 9
ifmk ENSEMBLES Kiel ECHAM5/OM1
1960-2005
Nov 1 (14) 9
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse
ENSEMBLES –stream 2Scores:
• ACC: anomaly correlation coefficients
• Addresses the question: How well did the forecast anomalies correspond to the observed anomalies?
• RMSE: Root mean square errors
• Answers the question: What is the average magnitude of the forecast errors?
• MSSS: Mean square skill score
• withcj
jj MSE
MSEMSS 1
2
1
)(1
n
ijijcj xx
nMSE
2
1
)(1
n
iijijj xf
nMSE
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse
ENSEMBLES –stream 2
Results 1961-2000 NDJF:
RMSE for Malaria Incidence over Botswana (NDJF 1961-2000). The reference dataset is a companion run forced by ERA40 reanalysis, and
the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse
ENSEMBLES –stream 2
Results 1961-2000 NDJF:
ACC for Malaria Incidence over Bostwana (NDJF 1961-2000). The reference dataset is a companion run forced by ERA40 reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means. The dotted area display
significant correlations at the 95% confidence interval
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse
ENSEMBLES –stream 2
Results 1961-2000 NDJF:
MSSS for Malaria Incidence over Botswana (NDJF 1961-2000). The reference dataset is a companion run forced by ERA40 reanalysis, and
the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse
ENSEMBLES –stream 2
Results 1981-2000 NDJF:
RMSE for Malaria Incidence over Botswana (NDJF 1981-2000). The reference dataset is a companion run forced by ERA40 reanalysis, and
the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse
ENSEMBLES –stream 2
Results 1981-2000 NDJF:
ACC for Malaria Incidence over Botswana (NDJF 1981-2000). The reference dataset is a companion run forced by ERA40 reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means. The dotted area display
significant correlations at the 95% confidence interval
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse
ENSEMBLES –stream 2
Results 1981-2000 NDJF:
MSSS for Malaria Incidence over Bostwana (NDJF 1981-2000). The reference dataset is a companion run forced by ERA40 reanalysis, and
the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse
Validation climate drivers ENSEMBLES stream2 1981-2000
seasonal forecasts
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse
ENSEMBLES –stream 2
Results 1981-2000 NDJF:
RMSE for tasmax (NDJF 1981-2000). The reference dataset is a NCEP reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse
ENSEMBLES –stream 2
Results 1981-2000 NDJF:
ACC for tasmax (NDJF 1981-2000). The reference dataset is a NCEP reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse
ENSEMBLES –stream 2
Results 1981-2000 NDJF:
MSSS for tasmax (NDJF 1981-2000). The reference dataset is a NCEP reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse
ENSEMBLES –stream 2
Results 1981-2000 NDJF:
RMSE for prlr (NDJF 1981-2000). The reference dataset is a GPCP reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse
ENSEMBLES –stream 2
Results 1981-2000 NDJF:
ACC for prlr (NDJF 1981-2000). The reference dataset is a GPCP reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse
ENSEMBLES –stream 2
Results 1981-2000 DJF:
MSSS for prlr (NDJF 1981-2000). The reference dataset is a GPCP reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse
Summary & Way Forward?
• Experience in BSS and ROCSS (probabilistic)
• Question non probabilistic nature/use of RMSE,
ACC and MSSS for EPS verification
• All data should come with sets of verification plots
e.g. ECMWF DEMETERhttp://www.ecmwf.int/research/demeter/d/charts/verification
• Library of scripts? Or portal to where they exsist
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse
Questions?
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse
Validation climate drivers ENSEMBLES stream1 1991-2001
seasonal forecasts
also have for DEMETER equivalent years
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse
ENSEMBLES –stream 1
Results 1991-2000 DJF:
RMSE for tas (DJF 1991-2000). The reference dataset is a ERA40 reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse
ENSEMBLES –stream 1
Results 1991-2000 DJF:
RMSE for tas (DJF 1991-2000). The reference dataset is a NCEP reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse
ENSEMBLES –stream 1
Results 1991-2000 DJF:
ACC for tas (DJF 1991-2000). The reference dataset is a ERA40 reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse
ENSEMBLES –stream 1
Results 1991-2000 DJF:
ACC for tas (DJF 1991-2000). The reference dataset is a NCEP reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse
ENSEMBLES –stream 1
Results 1991-2000 DJF:
MSSS for tas (DJF 1991-2000). The reference dataset is a ERA40 reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse
ENSEMBLES –stream 1
Results 1991-2000 DJF:
MSSS for tas (DJF 1991-2000). The reference dataset is a NCEP reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse
ENSEMBLES –stream 1
Results 1991-2000 DJF:
RMSE for prlr (DJF 1991-2000). The reference dataset is a GPCP reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse
ENSEMBLES –stream 1
Results 1991-2000 DJF:
ACC for prlr (DJF 1991-2000). The reference dataset is a GPCP reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse
ENSEMBLES –stream 1
Results 1991-2000 DJF:
MSSS for prlr (DJF 1981-2000). The reference dataset is a GPCP reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse
ENSEMBLES –stream 1
Results 1991-2000 JAS:
RMSE for prlr (JAS 1991-2000). The reference dataset is a GPCP reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse
ENSEMBLES –stream 1
Results 1991-2000 JAS:
ACC for prlr (JAS 1991-2000). The reference dataset is a GPCP reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse
ENSEMBLES –stream 1
Results 1991-2000 JAS:
MSSS for prlr (JAS 1991-2000). The reference dataset is a GPCP reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.
WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse