predictive analytics: how to effectively measure and ......fico holds 185+ patents in analytics and...
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© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 1© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential.
This presentation is provided for the recipient only and cannot be reproduced or shared without Fair Isaac Corporation’s express consent.
Predictive Analytics: How to Effectively Measure and Improve Fleet Driving Risk
Rachel BellVice President, Scores and AnalyticsFICO
Jim NobleDirector, Insurance and Commercial Fleet ServiceseDriving
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© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 2© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 2
Despite advancements in safety technology, road fatalities are on the
rise and results continue to deteriorate.
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Society has becomedesensitizedto the problem.
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© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 4
Adaptive control systems for managing credit card accounts
Cross-bureau FICO®
credit scores
Neural network-based fraud solutions
Small business scoring systems
Cardholder profiling for fraud
1990s
Credit line optimizationsolutions
Predictive systems for
insurance fraud
Analytic systems for retailers to optimize
offers
Adaptive analytics for fraud
Credit capacity scores
2000s
Cloud-based decision management platform
World’s fastest optimization solver
Self-calibratinganalytics for fraud
Economically calibrated credit scores
Safe Driving Scores
2010s
FICO holds 185+ patents in analytics and decision management
technology, with an additional 90+ patents pending
Automated origination systems with analytics
Credit scoring
1950s–1970s
Insurance underwriting pricing/analytics
FICO® Score for credit lending
introduced
1980s
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© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 5
eDriving Pedigree
• Providing risk products to insurance carriers for 25 years
• Launched first on-line driver risk aggregation tools
• Established global footprint
• Released first successful integration with a leading commercial telematics insurance product
• Manage successful risk reduction programs for some of the biggest global customers
• Covers 35 to 40% of the world's commercial vehicles through our current insurance partners
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© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 6
We are THE global fleet risk management gurus.We change driver and manager behavior as we support the creation of a crash-free culture®.
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© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 7
Creating a Company-wide Crash Free Focus & Culture
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© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 8
Commercial Insurance Telematics Success?
D
N
LFE
C
KJ
I
O
A
B
H
G0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2
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© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 9
Why is commercial auto underperforming?
• The common factor >94% of all auto losses
• What have we done to reduce this exposure?
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© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 10 © 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential.
Is Insurtech the Answer?
• Recent Results
• What’s missing?
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© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 11
Risk vs. Pricing
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© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 12
It’s about...
Missions• Culture• Assessment• Data• Targeted Risk Reduction• Benchmarking
Policy
Leadership
Manager Engagement
Risk Assessment
Driver Engagement
Measurement of Progress
Interventions Fleet Safety
Performance Measurement
Developing a Company Wide Crash Free Focus & Culture
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© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 13
Driver PortalRank Ordering of Drivers
Coaching Tools
ManagerToolkit
Outputs
Predictive Models - Scoring
Aggregated Data + Scoring
FICO® Safe DrivingScore
Risk Assessment Outcomes
In Vehicle Intelligence
with Distraction Detection
CollisionData
Incident Data
MVR/License Checks
Inputs
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© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 14
Leveraging Telematics for Predictive Modeling
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Predictive Analytics Simplifies Data to Amplify Value
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© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 16
CO
NT
EX
T
Frequency
Duration
Severity
Acceleration
Braking
Cornering
Distraction
Speeding
Driving Behaviors Captured through Telematics
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© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 17
Predictive Analytics Simplifies Data to Amplify Value
Driving behaviorsare observed
Driver #2: Smooth Sally ?
?Driving outcomes
(e.g., collisions) are predicted
Driver #1: Reckless Rick
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© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 18
Segmenting Risk
GreatGoodAverageRisky Poor
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© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 19
• A predictive score that rank-orders drivers’ likelihood to be involved in future incident or collision.
• Based on driving behaviors as measured through smartphone sensors
• Acceleration, Braking, Cornering, Distraction, Speeding
• Validated using data from 2nd Strategic Highway Research Program*, a large driving study with 3,500+ participants
and nearly 32 million miles of driving data.
• Corroborated high importance of Acceleration and Braking variables.
• Amplified contribution of Cornering variables.
• Overall, improved collision prediction by 18%.
• Drivers with low scores have a much higher crash involvement rate
than drivers with high scores.
FICO® Safe Driving Score
FICO® Safe Driving Score
Low High
https://insight.shrp2nds.us/*
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© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 20
Engaging the Driver
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© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 21
Success Evolved.Mentor by eDriving with FICO® Safe Driving Scores
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© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 22
MentorDashboard
Benchmark Scores
Individual FICO® Safe Driving Score
Total Miles/Kms., Hours & Trips
Mentor Behaviors – A, B, C, D, S
Coaching Playlist –Modules To DO
Circle Teams –Business & Private
Last Trip Overview, Feedback, FNOL
Mentor Menus, Privacy, Trends
Mentor by eDriving with FICO® Safe Driving Score
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© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 23
Training – Risk Reduction
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© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 24
• Interactive ‘live video’ training
• Contextual, relevant, highly engaging micro training modules
(3-15 mins) help drivers practice making decisions in real-life
scenarios
• Core training –prescribed to ALL drivers to provide solid
foundation and/or refresher
• Targeted training – assigned to individual drivers to address
specific risk patterns
Training modules are taken in-app on a smartphone or tablet – anywhere, anytime.
Driver Training
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High Impact – Micro Learning
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Case Study Results
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© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 27
CASE STUDY: Pilot Program Results
• Pilot group chosen based on leadership engagement & need
• 3 Regions – 500+ Drivers – 6 Months
• Statistically significant CPMM reduction of 30% versus an increase in the non-pilot Regions
• Sustained CPMM reduction came when focus was put on on-time coaching completions and quality reviews/manager follow-up
27
Comparison of CPMM
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© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 28
CASE STUDY: 2019 North America Rollout
• Executive Safety Leadership Council support for expansion
• Focus on US and Canada only; greatest risk & most drivers
• ~12,000 drivers
• 10 divisions
• In-person, hands-on manger training
• System & data
• Coaching process
• Coordinated rollout around already scheduled manager meetings to minimize expense & field productivity impact
28
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CASE STUDY: Vehicle Accidents and Risky Driving Behaviors
Drivers with accidents had significantly more risky driving behaviors compared to drivers without accidents
29
Accident Recorded?
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© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 30
CASE STUDY: Speeding and Vehicle Accidents
Drivers with more speeding events are at higher risk for vehicle accidents
30
4.8%
5.6%6.2%
6.5%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
% o
f D
rive
rs w
ith
Ac
cid
en
ts
Distribution of Speeding Events
1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile
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© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 31
CASE STUDY: Vehicle Accidents and FICO® Safe Driving Score
31
Drivers with a FICO® Safe Driving Score of 710 or below were more likely to have an accident in the following months
0.9%
1.7%
2.5%
1.7%
2.8%
3.4%
0.0%
0.8%
1.6%
2.4%
3.2%
4.0%
Accident Next Month Accident in Next Two Months Accident in Next Three Months
% o
f E
mp
loye
es
Above 710 Below 710
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© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 32
CASE STUDY: CPMM Performance
32
Baseline After Deployment
CP
MM
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© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 33© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 33
Engaging the driver is essential to changing their driving behavior and
improving the risk.
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© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 34© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential.
This presentation is provided for the recipient only and cannot be reproduced or shared without Fair Isaac Corporation’s express consent.
Thank You
Jim [email protected]+1 (719) 466-1506
Rachel [email protected]+1 (415) 491-7055
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© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 35
WHO Global Status Report on Road Safety 2018
https://www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/road_safety_status/2018/en/
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NSC Motor Vehicle Fatality Trends
https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/motor-vehicle/historical-fatality-trends/deaths-and-rates/
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What are the numbers?
Source: https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812115
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© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 38
Acceleration Braking Cornering Distraction Speeding
• Collects & analyzes data for the most predictive driving
behaviors using the smartphone’s accelerometer and GPS
sensor
• Incorporates positive behaviors (smooth maneuvers), as
well as risky maneuvers –Acceleration, Braking, Cornering,
Distraction (Calls, Texting, Emailing, Handling), & Speeding.
• Reflects trip distance and duration
• 7-day rolling score
Mentor Behaviors
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• FICO Trip/Event feedback• Where and when each event occurred• Duration of each event• Speed driven Vs speed limit of the road• Trip rating (FICO® Safe Driving Score)• Total number of events• Start & end locations• Distance traveled/time elapsed• Summary of last 30 Trips
• PRIVACY: Driver Managers/Administrators/
Employer can only see FICO® Safe Driving Score,
Mentor behavior sub-scores and event counts –
No Location/mapping data is shared.
Driver View/Trip Details