prediction models for site specific recommendations agriculture extension view point dr. muhammad...
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PREDICTION MODELS FOR SITE SPECIFIC
RECOMMENDATIONS
Agriculture Extension View Point
Dr. Muhammad Anjum AliDirector General Agriculture
(Extension & AR) Punjab, Lahore
FERTILIZER OFFTAKE BY NUTRIENTS PAKISTAN (000 TONS)
Year N P2O5 K2O Total2010-11 3134 767 32 3933
79.68%
NFDC Reports
FERTILIZER OFFTAKE BY NUTRIENTS PUNJAB (000 TONS)
Year N P2O5 K2O Total2010-11 2231 548 24 2803
79.59
19.550. 85
CROP USAGE OF FERTILIZER IN PAKISTAN
(000 NUTRIENT TONS)Year Wheat Cotton Sugarcane Rice Maize Others Total
2010-11 1966.5 983.25 314.64 235.98 59 373.64 3933.01
50 %
TOTAL NITROGEN USE ALL SOURCES
FERTILIZER 000 TONS PERCENTAGE ON NUTRIENT BASISUREA 5765 84.26CAN 595 4.92DAP 1325 7.58NP 335 2.45
MAP 38 0.13NPK 70 0.67
84.26
2.45
TOTAL PHOSPHORUS USE ALL SOURCES
FERTILIZER 000 TONS PERCENTAGE ON NUTRIENT BASISDAP 1325 78.55SSP 224 5.20TSP 18 1.07NPK 70 2.71MAP 38 2.55NP 335 9.93
78.55
TOTAL POTASH USE ALL SOURCES
FERTILIZER 000 TONS PERCENTAGE ON NUTRIENT BASISSOP 27 56.02MOP 11 27.39NPK 10 16.60
56.02
FERTILIZER OFF TAKE (000 N/TONS)
Economic Survey of Pakistan 2011-12Economic Survey of Pakistan 2011-12
USE EFFICIENCY OF DIFFERENT NUTRIENTS
MACRO-NUTRIENTS MICRO-NUTRIENTS
Parameter Use Efficiency (%)
Parameter Use Efficiency (%)
N 40 – 60 Zn 4 – 5
P 20 – 30 B 6 – 8
K 75 – 85 Fe 11 – 15
FERTILIZER USE EFFICIENCY
Long term study conducted by IFA for India, China and Pakistan revealed less grain yield due decline in N use efficiency because of imbalance use of fertilizer nutrients
IndiaChinaPakistan
Kg
Gra
ins
per
Kg
of
N u
sed
BALANCED USE OF FERTILIZER (Ha)
Crop N Only NPK % Increase
Wheat 2,521 4,120 63
Rice 2,800 4,494 60
Maize 2,110 5,084 14
Sugarcane 56,515 126,334 123
Kg/ha
NFDC Reports
FERTILIZER VALUE
Fertilizer
Annual Consumption (000 Tons)
Value (US $ per Ton)
Total Cost Million US $
Fertilizer Use
efficiency (% age)
Deficit Million US
$
Urea 5,765 425 2,450.12 501,225.6
0
DAP 1,325 515 682.37 25 170.59
Potash 38 595 22.61 80 4.52
COST OF PRODUCTION AND FERTILIZER SHARE (Rs. / acre)
YearsCOTTON SUGAR CANE MAIZE
Total Cost.
Fert. %AgeTotal Cost.
Fert. %AgeTotal Cost.
Fert. %Age
2003-04
14,336 1,823 12.72 23,636 3,825 16.18 9,249 1,442 15.59
2004-05
15,671 2,213 14.12 24,492 4,048 16.53 9,755 1,702 17.45
2005-06
17,319 2,289 13.22 25,008 3,630 14.52 11,010 1,777 16.14
2006-07
18,847 2,431 12.90 29,600 3,965 13.40 18,216 3,698 20.30
2007-08
19,505 2,620 13.43 30,428 3,675 12.08 18,827 3,571 18.97
2008-09
24,676 5,130 20.79 42,006 8,180 19.47 31,839 12,240 38.44
2009-10
27,509 4,065 14.78 43,549 8,227 18.89 33,547 11,025 32.86
2010-11
32,360 5,175 15.99 47,744 7,370 15.44 39,496 13,240 33.52
2011-12
43,850 7,888 17.99 57,282 9,446 16.49 49,093 19,305 39.32
2012-13
48,923 8,775 17.94 70,054 12,905 18.42 57,506 22,275 38.74
COST OF PRODUCTION AND FERTILIZER SHARE (Rs. / acre)
YearsWHEAT RICE
Total Cost.
Fert. %AgeTotal Cost.
Fert. %Age
2003-04 9,028 1,316 14.58 11,741 1,463 12.46
2004-05 10,198 1,650 16.18 12,469 1,723 13.82
2005-06 11,524 1,847 16.03 13,716 1,779 12.97
2006-07 12,264 1,910 15.57 15,087 1,874 12.42
2007-08 15,626 3,614 23.13 16,154 2,005 12.41
2008-09 19,547 4,195 21.46 22,064 3,760 17.04
2009-10 24,187 3,332 13.78 24,898 3,110 12.49
2010-11 24,428 5,098 20.87 29,240 4,000 13.68
2011-12 29,149 6,280 21.54 36,351 5,992 16.48
2012-13 31,490 6,550 20.80 41,810 6,670 15.95
FERTILIZER USE EFFECIENCY
SOIL ANALYSIS
SITE SPECIFIC FERTILIZER APPLICATION!
BALANCED NUTRITION
SITE-SPECIFIC NUTRIENT MANAGEMENT FOR CROPPING SYSTEMSSITE-SPECIFIC NUTRIENT MANAGEMENT FOR CROPPING SYSTEMS
Nutrient Expert for Hybrid Maize Software
Extension Viewpoint• Develop and deploy latest communication tools to raise
farmers’ awareness about the economic, social and environmental benefits of adoption of IPNM.
• Conduct field demonstrations applying locally-adapted IPNM techniques and prepare literature/media campaign with the results from the local demonstrations.
• Assist farmers in making the best decisions for managing crop nutrients at the field and farm levels.
• Provide farmers with all necessary products, services and information to successfully implement IPNM.
• Training of the extension agents for best use of modern gadgets and techniques to assist farmers
THANKS