Predicting Winter Precipitation

By: Tony Cummings

Problem

• Winter precipitation is major issue

• Georgia is not as prepared

• Seasonal forecast would be helpful

• Already forecast seasonal temperatures

Data

• Same data as undergraduate research

• KATL and KAHN from 1973-2007

• ASOS data

• Used Matlab script to decode

Methodology

• Decode Data• Analyze data

– Linear Correlations [corr()]

– Periodograms [periodogram()]

– Cross spectral Analysis• cspd()• mscohere()• angle() .

Correlations

Periodograms

Zoomed Periodograms

Cross Spectral Analysis

Phase angle

Conclusions

• Temps and Hours of precipitation are statistically correlated

• Strong 6 year precipitation cycle

• Cross Spectral Analysis results mixed

• Precipitation predictions similar to temperature predictions