predicting the turn - high alpha speaker series with dave knox

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Predicting the Turn Dave Knox, WPP Ventures, @daveknox HIGH ALPHA SPEAKER SERIES #HighAlphaIdeas Thanks to our partners at

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Page 1: Predicting the Turn - High Alpha Speaker Series with Dave Knox

Predicting the TurnDave Knox, WPP Ventures, @daveknox

HIGH ALPHA SPEAKER SERIES

#HighAlphaIdeas Thanks to our partners at

Page 2: Predicting the Turn - High Alpha Speaker Series with Dave Knox

P R E D I C T I N G T H E T U R N

D A V E K N O X

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V S

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V S

Page 5: Predicting the Turn - High Alpha Speaker Series with Dave Knox

Digital Marketing

Digital Business ModelsV S

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Now it’s about

managing disruption.

It used to be about fighting over market

share.

Page 7: Predicting the Turn - High Alpha Speaker Series with Dave Knox

Now it’s digital as a model.

It used to bedigital as media.

Page 8: Predicting the Turn - High Alpha Speaker Series with Dave Knox

Now it’s about infinite shelves &

free shipping. 

It used tobe about

shelf space.

Page 9: Predicting the Turn - High Alpha Speaker Series with Dave Knox

“There is a dramatic leveling of the playing field. The advantages of scale

that guaranteed success in the post-war era just don’t matter very much when

advertising is cheap, shelf space is infinite, and shipping is free.”

The State of Technology at the End of 2016

Page 10: Predicting the Turn - High Alpha Speaker Series with Dave Knox
Page 11: Predicting the Turn - High Alpha Speaker Series with Dave Knox

T H E F L O P T H E T U R N T H E R I V E R

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I

Venture as R&D

II

Dominos

III

Total Available Market

IV

Market Intelligence

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I

Venture as

R&D

II. Dominos III. Total Available Market IV. Market IntelligenceI. Venture as R&D

Page 14: Predicting the Turn - High Alpha Speaker Series with Dave Knox

I. Venture as R&D II. Dominos IV. Market IntelligenceIII. Total Available Market

Page 15: Predicting the Turn - High Alpha Speaker Series with Dave Knox

II. Dominos IV. Market IntelligenceIII. Total Available MarketI. Venture as R&D

4.3B

15B

Page 16: Predicting the Turn - High Alpha Speaker Series with Dave Knox

II. Dominos IV. Market Intelligence

PhD and top technical talent are increasingly looking to startups for the

opportunity to be part of the next big idea.

III. Total Available MarketI. Venture as R&D

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II

DOMINOS

I. Venture as R&D IV. Market IntelligenceII. Dominos III. Total Available Market

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29 Dominos

I. Venture as R&D IV. Market Intelligence

Lorne Whitehead

III. Total Available MarketII. Dominos

Page 19: Predicting the Turn - High Alpha Speaker Series with Dave Knox

IV. Market IntelligenceI. Venture as R&D

The speed of change is always accelerating. And the dominos will continue to fall closer and

closer to your bottom line.

III. Total Available MarketII. Dominos

Page 20: Predicting the Turn - High Alpha Speaker Series with Dave Knox

III

Total Available Market

I. Venture as R&D II. Dominos IV. Market IntelligenceIII. Total Available Market

Page 21: Predicting the Turn - High Alpha Speaker Series with Dave Knox

I. Venture as R&D II. Dominos IV. Market Intelligence

1920 2016

III. Total Available Market

Page 22: Predicting the Turn - High Alpha Speaker Series with Dave Knox

“Saying that you’re aiming for x% of a $ybn industry is unambitious — great

companies change the y, not the x.”

Benedict Evans - “Ways to Think About Market Size”

I. Venture as R&D II. Dominos IV. Market IntelligenceIII. Total Available Market

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IV

Market Intelligence

I. Venture as R&D II. Dominos IV. Market IntelligenceIII. Total Available Market

Page 24: Predicting the Turn - High Alpha Speaker Series with Dave Knox

Subscription e-Commerce First Fundings

2010 2011 2012 2013

I. Venture as R&D II. Dominos IV. Market IntelligenceIII. Total Available Market

Page 25: Predicting the Turn - High Alpha Speaker Series with Dave Knox

I. Venture as R&D II. Dominos

“Develop a sense of how and when the future will happen, and share

that foresight with key stakeholders throughout the corporation. The ability to see the future of your

industry before it happens.”

Scott Lenet - co-founder of Touchdown Ventures

III. Total Available Market IV. Market Intelligence

Page 26: Predicting the Turn - High Alpha Speaker Series with Dave Knox

T H E T U R N

How do you Predict the Turn?

Page 27: Predicting the Turn - High Alpha Speaker Series with Dave Knox

“We all know that if you swing for the fences, you’re going to strike out a lot, but you’re also going to hit some home runs.

The difference between baseball and business, however, is that baseball has a

truncated outcome distribution…

Jeff Bezos - Amazon, 2015 Shareholder Annual Letter

Page 28: Predicting the Turn - High Alpha Speaker Series with Dave Knox

…When you swing, no matter how well you connect with the ball, the most runs you

can get is four. In business, every once in a while, when you step up to the plate, you

can score 1,000 runs.” 

Jeff Bezos - Amazon, 2015 Shareholder Annual Letter

Page 29: Predicting the Turn - High Alpha Speaker Series with Dave Knox

# T H E T U R N

InnovationDriven

AcquisitionInvest

in ChangePartners

in InnovationDisrupt

the Disruptors

Page 30: Predicting the Turn - High Alpha Speaker Series with Dave Knox

“You can fight the end and that will probably not turn out well. Or you can acknowledge that

this is happening. This is real, serious, and going to change your world.”

Innovation Driven Acquisition Invest in Change Partners in Innovation Disrupt the Disruptors

John Zimmer - President and co-founder, Lyft

# T H E T U R N

Page 31: Predicting the Turn - High Alpha Speaker Series with Dave Knox

Invest in Change Partners in Innovation Disrupt the DisruptorsInnovation Driven Acquisition

# T H E T U R N

MapMyFitness

Endomondo

MyFitnessPal

Page 32: Predicting the Turn - High Alpha Speaker Series with Dave Knox

“We invest on the side of change.”Marc Andreessen

Innovation Driven Acquisition Invest in Change Partners in Innovation Disrupt the Disruptors

# T H E T U R N

Page 33: Predicting the Turn - High Alpha Speaker Series with Dave Knox

Innovation Driven Acquisition Invest in Change Partners in Innovation Disrupt the Disruptors

# T H E T U R N

Page 34: Predicting the Turn - High Alpha Speaker Series with Dave Knox

Partners in Innovation

“Startups are like water. They will take the easiest path down the hill.”

Phin Barnes - First Round Capital

Innovation Driven Acquisition Invest in Change Disrupt the Disruptors

# T H E T U R N

Page 35: Predicting the Turn - High Alpha Speaker Series with Dave Knox

Partners in InnovationInnovation Driven Acquisition Invest in Change Disrupt the Disruptors

# T H E T U R N

Page 36: Predicting the Turn - High Alpha Speaker Series with Dave Knox

“Everybody talks about disruption until you actually f***ing disrupt something and then

everybody freaks the f*** out.”

Shane Smith - Founder of Vice Media

Innovation Driven Acquisition Invest in Change Partners in Innovation Disrupt the Disruptors

# T H E T U R N

Page 37: Predicting the Turn - High Alpha Speaker Series with Dave Knox

Innovation Driven Acquisition Invest in Change Partners in Innovation Disrupt the Disruptors

# T H E T U R N

Page 38: Predicting the Turn - High Alpha Speaker Series with Dave Knox

C O M P A N Y A C Q U I R E I N V E S T P A R T N E R D I S R U P T T H E D I S R U P T O R

V E N T U R E S H A T C H - H O U S E

Page 39: Predicting the Turn - High Alpha Speaker Series with Dave Knox

"The sooner you stop fighting the present, the sooner you can get to work on figuring out the future."

David Heinemeier Hansson - Creator of Ruby on Rails