Scott Sambucci, Altos ResearchNovember 2010 | San Francisco, CA

PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS SUMMIT

WHO, WHAT, WHERE, WHEN, WHY & HOW

• Altos Research

• Real-time housing market analytics

• 180+ metros, 20,000 zip codes

• What is happening & what will happen, not what happened

• Wisdom of crowds

• The Active Market to forecast future market activity

APPLICATIONS OF REAL-TIME ANALYTICS

• Current Market Conditions

• Future Housing Prices

• Consumer Sentiment

• Mortgage Default Rates

• Financial Market

MISLEADING NATURE OF TRANSACTION PRICES

MIAMI CONDOS: MARKET IMPROVED IN 2009?

Did values really moved higher?

The actives knew the market was weak

PREDICTING FUTURE PRICES

7/27/2

007

8/28/2

007

9/29/2

007

10/31

/2007

12/2/

2007

1/3/20

08

2/4/20

08

3/7/20

08

4/8/20

08

5/10/2

008

6/11/2

008

7/13/2

008

8/14/2

008

9/15/2

008

10/17

/2008

11/18

/2008

12/20

/2008

1/21/2

009

2/22/2

009

3/26/2

009

4/27/2

009

5/29/2

009

6/30/2

009

8/1/20

09

9/2/20

09

10/4/

2009

11/5/

2009

12/7/

2009

1/8/20

10

2/9/20

10

3/13/2

010

4/14/2

010

5/16/2

010

6/17/2

010

7/19/2

010

8/20/2

010

9/21/2

010

125.00

135.00

145.00

155.00

165.00

175.00

185.00

195.00

205.00

$325,000

$345,000

$365,000

$385,000

$405,000

$425,000

$445,000

SPCS20R Active Prices

QE2 & THE HOUSING MARKET: SUPPLY & DEMAND PROBLEM

CONSUMER SENTIMENT & HOUSING

MORTGAGES 60 DAYS DELINQUENT FOR THE FIRST TIME

FICO & LTVS – BECOMING IRRELEVANT

DELINQUENCIES PEAK AT MARKET TROUGH

New delinquencies perfectly correlated to

market conditions

MORTGAGE DEFAULT RATES & MARKET CONDITIONS

New delinquencies perfectly correlated to

market conditions

THE HOUSING MARKET & THE S&P 500

1-Jan

-08

1-Feb

-08

1-Mar-

08

1-Apr-0

8

1-May

-08

1-Jun-08

1-Jul-0

8

1-Aug-08

1-Sep

-08

1-Oct-

08

1-Nov-0

8

1-Dec

-08

1-Jan

-09

1-Feb

-09

1-Mar-

09

1-Apr-0

9

1-May

-09

1-Jun-09

1-Jul-0

9

1-Aug-09

1-Sep

-09

1-Oct-

09

1-Nov-0

9

1-Dec

-09

1-Jan

-10

1-Feb

-10

1-Mar-

10

1-Apr-1

0

1-May

-10

1-Jun-10

1-Jul-1

0

1-Aug-10

1-Sep

-10

1-Oct-

10

1-Nov-1

0500.00

600.00

700.00

800.00

900.00

1,000.00

1,100.00

1,200.00

1,300.00

1,400.00

1,500.00

$325,000

$335,000

$345,000

$355,000

$365,000

$375,000

$385,000

$395,000

$405,000

$415,000

S&P 500 Active Prices

CONTACT

Scott Sambucci, VP Data Analytics

Altos Research

www.altosresearch.com

(415) 931-7942

scott@altosresearch.com

http://blog.altosresearch.com

@scottsambucci

PROPERTY TAXES

http://macroblog.typepad.com/macroblog/2010/10/real-estate-and-municipal-revenue.html