predicting initial claims for unemployment benefits
TRANSCRIPT
-
8/14/2019 Predicting Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits
1/5
^reholxofj Ofoxo`i Li`oa| ckr Ufea~ikyaefx Befeffx|
Myufykufj Lmko) M`i S`ro`f
Guiy 5) 2>>?
Zm`x zkuih yku |e`rlm ckr oc yku xmkujmx yku aojmx ik|e ykur gkb; Xy~ol`i |e`rlme| aojmx
be pueroe| iode Tufea~ikyaefx kleQ) T`~~iy ckr ufea~ikyaefxQ) Tgkb|Q) `fh |k kf&
Jkkjie \e`rlm Of|ojmx| `fh Jkkjie Xrefh| li`||offe| |e`rlm pueroe| iode xme|e ofxk xzk l`xe!
jkroe|) Ikl`i+Gkb| `fh \kloexy+\klo`i \ersole|+Zeic`re # Ufea~ikyaefx& Ox o| xea~xofj xk
xmofd xm`x Jkkjie |e`rlme| of xme|e xk~ol| a`y be rei`xeh xk ffiofj| ckr ufea~ikyaefx befeffx|&
Of kur e`rioer zkrd-TLmko `fh S`ro`f-2>>?/Q/) ze he|lrobeh mkz Jkkjie Xrefh| h`x` lkuih
mei~ ~reholx elkfkaol xoae |eroe| kc ofxere|x& Mere ze `~~iy xme aexmkhkikjy heseik~eh of xm`x
~`~er xk U&\& ufea~ikyaefx xoae |eroe|&
Xme Ofoxo`i Gkbie|| Li`oa| o| ` zeediy re~krx o||ueh by U\ He~`rxaefx kc I`bkr&o& Ox
xr`ld| xme fuaber kc ~ek~ie ffieh ckr xme ufea~ikyaefx befeffx| `fh ox o| lkf|ohereh ` ie`hofj
ofhol`xkr kc i`bkr a`rdex& Xme li`oa| `re re~krxeh `x xme f`xokf`i `fh |x`xe iesei `fh xme h`x`
h`x` o| `s oi`bie crka ffr|x zeed kc 0?=:& @hs`fle ofoxo i li`oa| zeediy re~krx| `x xme f`xokf`i
iesei h`x` `re reie`|eh 5 h`y| `cxer xme zeed efh|&
X`bie 0 |mkz| ` |`a~ie kc reie`|e |lmehuie ckr Gufe 2>>? `x f`xokf`i iesei `ikfj Ofoxo`i Li`oa|
`fh Jkkjie Xrefh| h`x`& Zmef xme h`x` o| reie`|eh `x :+2+>?) Jkkjie Xrefh| h`x` o| `s`oi`bie
xk xme zeed kc reie`|e) zmolm ae`f| Jkkjie Xrefh| o| : h`y| `me`h kc jkserfaefx| reie`|e
|lmehuie&
Zeed 5+ 3+20 ! 3+2: 3+2= ! :+8Ofoxo`i Li`oa| 3>5D 302D 3D 308D Reie`|eLkfxofueh Li`oa| 3&:0A 3&:3A 3&:>A `x :+?+>?Gkb| % !2% !8%Zeic`re # Ufea~ikyaefx %
X`bie 07 Ofoxo`i Li`oa| `fh Jkkjie Xrefh| \lmehuie crka 5+? xk :+8+>?
o& mxx~7++zzz&hki&jks+k~ +aeho`+~re||+ex +uo+lurrefx&mxa
0
-
8/14/2019 Predicting Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits
2/5
Cojure 0-`/ `fh 0-b/ he~olx Ofoxo`i Li`oa| s|& xzk i`bkr a`rdex rei`xeh l`xejkroe| of Jkkjie
Xrefh| crka 2>>8& Ofoxo`i Li`oa| `re ~ikxxeh `j`of|x Jkkjie Xrefh| xk lka~`re xme xrefh| kser
xoae& Xme|e xmree xoae |eroe| |mkz xme |oaoi`r lyliol`i ~`xxerf `fh u~ xrefh| |ofle 2>>=&
@ lkaaoxxee kc xme F`xokf`i Bure`u kc Elkfkaol Re|e`rlm m`| heli`reh xm`x U\ m`| beef
of rele||okf |ofle Heleaber 2>>:&oo& Ze fkxe xm`x ofoxo`i li`oa| ckr ufea~ikyaefx befeffx| m`se
beef oflre`|ofj |ofle aoh 2>>:-Cojure 0/& Ze lkuih uxoiowe xme xoae |eroe| |ofle 2>>8 ufher
xme `||ua~xokf kc fk |xrulxur i lm`fje ckr xme ~`|x 5 ye`r|& Kr ze lkuih u|e xme h`x` |ofle
Heleaber 2>>: ufher xme `||ua~xokf xm`x xmere o| |xrulxur`i hoerefle |ofle rele||okf |x`rxeh
`fh xmere o| lkf|o|xefx |e`|kf`ioxy of i`bkr a`rdex&
Ofoxo`i li`oa| m`se ` sery jkkh relkrh `| ` ie`hofj ofhol`xkr& A`lrkelkfkao|x Rkberx Jkrhkf
~kofx| kux xm`x xmere o| ` |ur~ro|ofjiy xojmx mo|xkrol`i rei`xokf|mo~ of ~`|x U\ rele||okf| bexzeef
xme lyliol`i ~e`d of fez li`oa| ckr ufea~ikyaefx of|ur`fle -ae`|ureh `| ` ckur!zeed aksofj
`ser`je/ `fh xme |ub|epuefx FBER xrkujm&ooo& Kxmer elkfkao|x|) |ulm `| G`ae| M`aoixkf)
m`se `i|k hkluaefxeh xmo| rei`xokf|mo~&os&
Hefkxe yx) Gkb|x `fh Zeic`rex `| xme xoae |eroe| kc Ofoxo`i Li`oa|) Gkb| `fh Zeic`re #
Ufea~ikyaefx l`xejkroe| of Jkkjie Xrefh| re|~elxoseiy& Ze `~~ioeh |x`fh rh @ROA@ akhei
|eielxokf ~rklehure| `fh |eielxeh @R-0/ akhei `| ` b`|eiofe& Xmef ze `hheh xme Jkkjie Xrefh|
|eroe| xk |ee mkz aulm xmo| oa~rkseh ~reholxokf& Xmo| ~rklehure ckiikz| xme ikjol he|lrobeh of
^reholxofj xme ^re|efx zoxm Jkkjie Xrefh|&s& Xme b`|eiofe `fh `ixerf`xose akhei zoxm Jkkjie
Xrefh| h`x` ckr xme Ikfj xera -`ii h`x`/ `fh \mkrx Xera -rele||okf kfiy/ akhei `re `| ckiikz|7
B`|eiofe Akhei 7 ikj-yx/ 1 Ofxerle~x $ ikj-yx0/ $ ex
@ixerf xose Akhei 7 ikj-yx/ 1 Ofxerle~x $ Gkb|x $ Zeic`rex $ ikj-yx0/ $ ex
X`bie 2 |uaa`rowe| xme akhei ffx& Xmere o| ~k|oxose lkrrei xokf bexzeef ofoxo`i li`oa| `fh
xme |e`rlm rei`xeh xk Gkb| `fh Zeic`re # Ufea~ikyaefx& Esef xmkujm xme xoae |eroe| ~ikx
|ujje|x ` lm`fje of Ofoxo`i Li`oa| `cxer 2>>=) xme akhei ~reholx| bexxer zoxm xme ikfjer xoae
|eroe|& Zoxm xme Jkkjie Xrefh| |eroe|) xme akhei ffx o| oa~rkseh |ojfoffl`fxiy `fh xme kux!kc!|`a~ie ae`f!`b|kiuxe!errkr e|xoa`xeh zoxm xme rkiiofj zofhkz ckr xme ~`|x 28 zeed| o| helre`|eh
by 05&:8% ckr xme ikfj xera akhei `fh 02&?>% ckr xme |mkrx xera akhei&
Xme f`xokf`i iesei ofoxo i li oa| `re reie`|eh u~ xk xme zeed kc 3+20+>?!3+2:+>? `fh xme
ffjure o| 30?+>8+`fkxmer[jreef[|&mxais& mxx~7++jkkjie&lka+jkkjiebikj|+~hc|+jkkjieY[~reholxofjY[xmeY[~re|efx&~hc
2
-
8/14/2019 Predicting Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits
3/5
5
5e$>5
2>>8 2>>5 2>>3 2>>: 2>>= 2>>?
5
5e$>5
8>
2>
>
Ofoxo`i Li`oa|Jkkjie Xrefh|
-`/ Gkb|
5
5e$>5
2>>8 2>>5 2>>3 2>>: 2>>= 2>>?
5
5e$>5
>
5>
Ofoxo`i Li`oa|
Jkkjie Xrefh|
-b/ Zeic`re # Ufea~ikyaefx
Cojure 07 Ofoxo`i Li`oa| s|& I`bkr A`rdex rei`xeh Jkkjie Xrefh|
oa~ioe| helre`|e of Ofoxo`i li`oa|& Xme Jkkjie Xrefh| ofhe} ckr xme zeed| efhofj :+8+>? zere
hkzf `fh xmo| lkuih ofhol`xe ` lkfxofuku| helre`|e of Ofoxo`i Li`oa| ckr xme lkaofj zeed|&
\uaa`ry
Ze m`se |mkzf mkz Jkkjie Xrefh| h`x` l`f mei~ ~reholx ofoxo`i li`oa| of ofoxo`i li`oa| ckr uf!
ea~ikyaefx befeffx| of xme Ufoxeh \x`xe|& T@|dox`| `fh Woaaera`f-2>>?/Q `fh T\umky-2>>?/Q
m`se e}`aofeh |oaoi`r ufea~ikyaefx h`x` ckr Jera`fh `fh O|r`ei) re|~elxoseiy) `fh `i|k ckufh
|ojfoffl`fx oa~rkseaefx| of ckrel`|xofj `llur`ly by u|ofj Jkkjie Xrefh|& Ze mk~e xm`x kxmer
re|e`rlmer| zoii lkfxofue xk e}`aofe xme|e h`x`&
-
8/14/2019 Predicting Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits
4/5
B`|eiofe Akhei @ixerf`xose AkheiOfxerle~x A@E Ofxerle~x Gkb| Zeic re A@E
IX E|x >&023? >&??>2 >&>88< &=:2: >&>>08 >&>82? 2&:&030= >&>023 >&&>2? >&>>>&20:8 >&?=
-
8/14/2019 Predicting Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits
5/5
>=+>< >=+?+2= 0>+23 00+2< 02+20 >0+0= >2+05 >8+02 >5+0> >3+>: >:+>5
^reholxokf
Errkrof
^erlefx
5
>
5
85>
5>>
55>
3>>
35>
Recerefle Akhei -A@E 1 < >=+?+2= 0>+23 00+2< 02+20 >0+0= >2+05 >8+02 >5+0> >3+>: >:+>5
^reholxokf
Errkrof
^erlefx
5
>
5
85>
5>>
55>
3>>
35>
Recerefle Akhei -A@E 1