8/14/2019 Predicting Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits

1/5

^reholxofj Ofoxo`i Li`oa| ckr Ufea~ikyaefx Befeffx|

Myufykufj Lmko) M`i S`ro`f

Guiy 5) 2>>?

Zm`x zkuih yku |e`rlm ckr oc yku xmkujmx yku aojmx ik|e ykur gkb; Xy~ol`i |e`rlme| aojmx

be pueroe| iode Tufea~ikyaefx kleQ) T`~~iy ckr ufea~ikyaefxQ) Tgkb|Q) `fh |k kf&

Jkkjie \e`rlm Of|ojmx| `fh Jkkjie Xrefh| li`||offe| |e`rlm pueroe| iode xme|e ofxk xzk l`xe!

jkroe|) Ikl`i+Gkb| `fh \kloexy+\klo`i \ersole|+Zeic`re # Ufea~ikyaefx& Ox o| xea~xofj xk

xmofd xm`x Jkkjie |e`rlme| of xme|e xk~ol| a`y be rei`xeh xk ffiofj| ckr ufea~ikyaefx befeffx|&

Of kur e`rioer zkrd-TLmko `fh S`ro`f-2>>?/Q/) ze he|lrobeh mkz Jkkjie Xrefh| h`x` lkuih

mei~ ~reholx elkfkaol xoae |eroe| kc ofxere|x& Mere ze `~~iy xme aexmkhkikjy heseik~eh of xm`x

~`~er xk U&\& ufea~ikyaefx xoae |eroe|&

Xme Ofoxo`i Gkbie|| Li`oa| o| ` zeediy re~krx o||ueh by U\ He~`rxaefx kc I`bkr&o& Ox

xr`ld| xme fuaber kc ~ek~ie ffieh ckr xme ufea~ikyaefx befeffx| `fh ox o| lkf|ohereh ` ie`hofj

ofhol`xkr kc i`bkr a`rdex& Xme li`oa| `re re~krxeh `x xme f`xokf`i `fh |x`xe iesei `fh xme h`x`

h`x` o| `s oi`bie crka ffr|x zeed kc 0?=:& @hs`fle ofoxo i li`oa| zeediy re~krx| `x xme f`xokf`i

iesei h`x` `re reie`|eh 5 h`y| `cxer xme zeed efh|&

X`bie 0 |mkz| ` |`a~ie kc reie`|e |lmehuie ckr Gufe 2>>? `x f`xokf`i iesei `ikfj Ofoxo`i Li`oa|

`fh Jkkjie Xrefh| h`x`& Zmef xme h`x` o| reie`|eh `x :+2+>?) Jkkjie Xrefh| h`x` o| `s`oi`bie

xk xme zeed kc reie`|e) zmolm ae`f| Jkkjie Xrefh| o| : h`y| `me`h kc jkserfaefx| reie`|e

|lmehuie&

Zeed 5+ 3+20 ! 3+2: 3+2= ! :+8Ofoxo`i Li`oa| 3>5D 302D 3D 308D Reie`|eLkfxofueh Li`oa| 3&:0A 3&:3A 3&:>A `x :+?+>?Gkb| % !2% !8%Zeic`re # Ufea~ikyaefx %

X`bie 07 Ofoxo`i Li`oa| `fh Jkkjie Xrefh| \lmehuie crka 5+? xk :+8+>?

o& mxx~7++zzz&hki&jks+k~ +aeho`+~re||+ex +uo+lurrefx&mxa

0

8/14/2019 Predicting Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits

2/5

Cojure 0-`/ `fh 0-b/ he~olx Ofoxo`i Li`oa| s|& xzk i`bkr a`rdex rei`xeh l`xejkroe| of Jkkjie

Xrefh| crka 2>>8& Ofoxo`i Li`oa| `re ~ikxxeh `j`of|x Jkkjie Xrefh| xk lka~`re xme xrefh| kser

xoae& Xme|e xmree xoae |eroe| |mkz xme |oaoi`r lyliol`i ~`xxerf `fh u~ xrefh| |ofle 2>>=&

@ lkaaoxxee kc xme F`xokf`i Bure`u kc Elkfkaol Re|e`rlm m`| heli`reh xm`x U\ m`| beef

of rele||okf |ofle Heleaber 2>>:&oo& Ze fkxe xm`x ofoxo`i li`oa| ckr ufea~ikyaefx befeffx| m`se

beef oflre`|ofj |ofle aoh 2>>:-Cojure 0/& Ze lkuih uxoiowe xme xoae |eroe| |ofle 2>>8 ufher

xme `||ua~xokf kc fk |xrulxur i lm`fje ckr xme ~`|x 5 ye`r|& Kr ze lkuih u|e xme h`x` |ofle

Heleaber 2>>: ufher xme `||ua~xokf xm`x xmere o| |xrulxur`i hoerefle |ofle rele||okf |x`rxeh

`fh xmere o| lkf|o|xefx |e`|kf`ioxy of i`bkr a`rdex&

Ofoxo`i li`oa| m`se ` sery jkkh relkrh `| ` ie`hofj ofhol`xkr& A`lrkelkfkao|x Rkberx Jkrhkf

~kofx| kux xm`x xmere o| ` |ur~ro|ofjiy xojmx mo|xkrol`i rei`xokf|mo~ of ~`|x U\ rele||okf| bexzeef

xme lyliol`i ~e`d of fez li`oa| ckr ufea~ikyaefx of|ur`fle -ae`|ureh `| ` ckur!zeed aksofj

`ser`je/ `fh xme |ub|epuefx FBER xrkujm&ooo& Kxmer elkfkao|x|) |ulm `| G`ae| M`aoixkf)

m`se `i|k hkluaefxeh xmo| rei`xokf|mo~&os&

Hefkxe yx) Gkb|x `fh Zeic`rex `| xme xoae |eroe| kc Ofoxo`i Li`oa|) Gkb| `fh Zeic`re #

Ufea~ikyaefx l`xejkroe| of Jkkjie Xrefh| re|~elxoseiy& Ze `~~ioeh |x`fh rh @ROA@ akhei

|eielxokf ~rklehure| `fh |eielxeh @R-0/ akhei `| ` b`|eiofe& Xmef ze `hheh xme Jkkjie Xrefh|

|eroe| xk |ee mkz aulm xmo| oa~rkseh ~reholxokf& Xmo| ~rklehure ckiikz| xme ikjol he|lrobeh of

^reholxofj xme ^re|efx zoxm Jkkjie Xrefh|&s& Xme b`|eiofe `fh `ixerf`xose akhei zoxm Jkkjie

Xrefh| h`x` ckr xme Ikfj xera -`ii h`x`/ `fh \mkrx Xera -rele||okf kfiy/ akhei `re `| ckiikz|7

B`|eiofe Akhei 7 ikj-yx/ 1 Ofxerle~x $ ikj-yx0/ $ ex

@ixerf xose Akhei 7 ikj-yx/ 1 Ofxerle~x $ Gkb|x $ Zeic`rex $ ikj-yx0/ $ ex

X`bie 2 |uaa`rowe| xme akhei ffx& Xmere o| ~k|oxose lkrrei xokf bexzeef ofoxo`i li`oa| `fh

xme |e`rlm rei`xeh xk Gkb| `fh Zeic`re # Ufea~ikyaefx& Esef xmkujm xme xoae |eroe| ~ikx

|ujje|x ` lm`fje of Ofoxo`i Li`oa| `cxer 2>>=) xme akhei ~reholx| bexxer zoxm xme ikfjer xoae

|eroe|& Zoxm xme Jkkjie Xrefh| |eroe|) xme akhei ffx o| oa~rkseh |ojfoffl`fxiy `fh xme kux!kc!|`a~ie ae`f!`b|kiuxe!errkr e|xoa`xeh zoxm xme rkiiofj zofhkz ckr xme ~`|x 28 zeed| o| helre`|eh

by 05&:8% ckr xme ikfj xera akhei `fh 02&?>% ckr xme |mkrx xera akhei&

Xme f`xokf`i iesei ofoxo i li oa| `re reie`|eh u~ xk xme zeed kc 3+20+>?!3+2:+>? `fh xme

ffjure o| 30?+>8+`fkxmer[jreef[|&mxais& mxx~7++jkkjie&lka+jkkjiebikj|+~hc|+jkkjieY[~reholxofjY[xmeY[~re|efx&~hc

2

8/14/2019 Predicting Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits

3/5

5

5e$>5

2>>8 2>>5 2>>3 2>>: 2>>= 2>>?

5

5e$>5

8>

2>

>

Ofoxo`i Li`oa|Jkkjie Xrefh|

-`/ Gkb|

5

5e$>5

2>>8 2>>5 2>>3 2>>: 2>>= 2>>?

5

5e$>5

>

5>

Ofoxo`i Li`oa|

Jkkjie Xrefh|

-b/ Zeic`re # Ufea~ikyaefx

Cojure 07 Ofoxo`i Li`oa| s|& I`bkr A`rdex rei`xeh Jkkjie Xrefh|

oa~ioe| helre`|e of Ofoxo`i li`oa|& Xme Jkkjie Xrefh| ofhe} ckr xme zeed| efhofj :+8+>? zere

hkzf `fh xmo| lkuih ofhol`xe ` lkfxofuku| helre`|e of Ofoxo`i Li`oa| ckr xme lkaofj zeed|&

\uaa`ry

Ze m`se |mkzf mkz Jkkjie Xrefh| h`x` l`f mei~ ~reholx ofoxo`i li`oa| of ofoxo`i li`oa| ckr uf!

ea~ikyaefx befeffx| of xme Ufoxeh \x`xe|& T@|dox`| `fh Woaaera`f-2>>?/Q `fh T\umky-2>>?/Q

m`se e}`aofeh |oaoi`r ufea~ikyaefx h`x` ckr Jera`fh `fh O|r`ei) re|~elxoseiy) `fh `i|k ckufh

|ojfoffl`fx oa~rkseaefx| of ckrel`|xofj `llur`ly by u|ofj Jkkjie Xrefh|& Ze mk~e xm`x kxmer

re|e`rlmer| zoii lkfxofue xk e}`aofe xme|e h`x`&

8/14/2019 Predicting Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits

4/5

B`|eiofe Akhei @ixerf`xose AkheiOfxerle~x A@E Ofxerle~x Gkb| Zeic re A@E

IX E|x >&023? >&??>2 >&>88< &=:2: >&>>08 >&>82? 2&:&030= >&>023 >&&>2? >&>>>&20:8 >&?=

8/14/2019 Predicting Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits

5/5

>=+>< >=+?+2= 0>+23 00+2< 02+20 >0+0= >2+05 >8+02 >5+0> >3+>: >:+>5

^reholxokf

Errkrof

^erlefx

5

>

5

85>

5>>

55>

3>>

35>

Recerefle Akhei -A@E 1 < >=+?+2= 0>+23 00+2< 02+20 >0+0= >2+05 >8+02 >5+0> >3+>: >:+>5

^reholxokf

Errkrof

^erlefx

5

>

5

85>

5>>

55>

3>>

35>

Recerefle Akhei -A@E 1