Predicting Predicting Homeless Homeless Population Population

Tone Jones

Econometrics Econometrics 5620 5620 Dr. Klein Dr. Klein

Data Analysis using a Regression R^2 T-Value F-ValueLevel of Significance

http://www.weingart.org/institute. Institute for the Study of Homelessness and Poverty Mean = 8,711

Mean =1,723,200

Institute for the Study of Homelessness and Poverty at the Weingart Center http://www.weingart.org/institute 

Median Income

Mean = $39,462 Median income is the amount which divides the income distribution into two equal groups, half having income above that amount, and half having income below that amount.

http://www.census.gov/acs/wwwproducts/Rankin/2002 R0t60.html

www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0855647.www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0855647.

www.infoplease.com/ipa/a0762183htmlwww.infoplease.com/ipa/a0762183html

 

3.6 % 8% 5.6% 4.4% 4.1% 5.5%4.2% 4% 4.7% 4% 4.9% 5% 3.9% 4.8% 4.7%5.1%

4.2%4.4% 3% 4.3% 4.1% 5.4% 5.9%4.4% 4.9% 3.1% 3.9% 3.7% 4.5% 5.6%3.6 %

National Unemployment Rate = 5.1% http://www.bls.gov/web/laummtrk.htm

R Square 0.893Adjusted R Square 0.872644Standard Error 6234.125Observations 31

ANOVA  df SS MS F Significance F

Regression 5 8.18E+09 1.64E+09 42.112017 2.18396E-11Residual 25 9.72E+08 38864311Total 30 9.15E+09

 Coefficient

sStandard Error t Stat P-value  

Intercept -20888 8157.857 -2.56048 0.01687584Population count 0.006784 0.000774 8.763379 4.2884E-09Ann. TRAFFIC (hrs) 125.6174 72.75389 1.726607 0.0965773Ave. snowfall (in) -8.62365 65.95707 -0.13075 0.89702233Median Income 0.028847 0.133203 0.216565 0.83030488Unempl rate 2205.371 1228.375 1.795357 0.08469603

R Square 0.893Adjusted R Square 0.881Standard Error 6009.37Observations 31

ANOVA  df SS MS F Significance F

Regression 3 8179840380 2.73E+09 75.50 2.9937E-13

Residual 25 9.72E+083886431

1Total 30 9.15E+09

  CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value  

Intercept -20167.0213 6781.0239 -2.97404 0.006122695Population count 0.006724322 0.0007006 9.597906 3.3993E-10Ann. TRAFFIC (hrs) 132.8124396 63.7426337 2.083573 0.046794707Unempl rate 2200.277824 1180.12877 1.864439 0.073166426

R Square 0.9769Adjusted R Square 0.9734Standard Error 2847Observations 31ANOVA

  df SS MS F Significance F

Regression 4 8.94E+09 2.24E+09 275.8694 6.98214E-21

Residual 26 2.11E+08 8105411Total 30 9.15E+09

  CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value  

Intercept -9699.865887 3388.591 -2.86251 0.008196pop ^2 9.59054E-10 9.88E-11 9.710559 3.89E-10Population count -0.00225531 0.000982 -2.2955 0.030021Ann. TRAFFIC (hrs) 118.1913508 30.23621 3.908934 0.000593Unempl rate 1952.319198 559.6803 3.488276 0.001747

Heteroscedasticity ?

Y- value residuals

712.65 3660.8 7583.23-4073.03 4627.12-2097.98-1211.93 1513.98 549.42 -311.827 -933.72 2562.02 -1711.85 -985.84 -2954.36 -2837.80 122.74 2958.74 387.358 1744.01 -1327.05 - 4148.59 -3257.884 899.38 -2472.06 2979.06 469.44 1349.42 -729.89

2191.34 11166.16 4614.763 52228.03 2025.8793973.989 2753.936 6822.013 2268.574 1962.827 2802.721 88437.97 3617.851 2202.846 9202.368 7747.80411882.25 7309.2545130.6411185.980 6487.052 4625.597 5486.884 5932.615 9187.065669.9313 1817.550 4469.576 4144.898

X- value predicted

Chapter 12 Hmw

Heteroscedasticity ?

Y- value Ln of res^2

13.13798854 16.4108947 17.86738979 16.62428742 16.87938023 15.29746941 14.19994896 14.64500267 12.61774617 11.48490218 13.67835621 15.6971029 14.89066134 13.78700109 15.98208035 15.90157169 9.620246083 15.98504124 11.91870107 14.92789573 14.38143055 16.66105128 16.17766661 13.60342121 15.6256188 15.99873202 12.30312146 14.41486552 13.18581078

7.692272 9.320643 8.437017 10.86337 7.613759 8.287526 7.920786 8.82791 7.726907 7.582141 7.938346 11.39006 8.193636 7.697506 9.127216 8.955165 9.382801 8.896897 8.542986 7.078325 8.777563 8.439361 8.610116 8.68822 9.125552 6.507175 7.505245 8.405049 8.329634

X- value Ln predicted

Chapter 12 Hmw

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression StatisticsMultiple R 0.21123R Square 0.044618Adjusted R Square 0.011674Standard Error 1.798885Observations 31

ANOVA  df SS MS F Significance F

Regression 1 4.38269 4.38269 1.354359 0.254003382Residual 29 93.84367 3.235989Total 30 98.22636     

 Coefficient

sStandard

Error t Stat P-value    

Intercept 11.30153 2.87006 3.937733 0.000474Ln pred (b2) 0.392696 0.337435 1.163769 0.254003 Homoscedasticity

Heteroscedasticity ?

HMW Ch. 12

Income from tourists Income from tourists Shelters presentShelters present

Areas for Areas for further research further research

Houston (predicted) -9699.865887 + 9.59054E-10(13,280,813,161,225 13,280,813,161,225 ) + -0.00225531(3,644,2853,644,285 ) +118.1913508(7575 ) +1952.319198 (4.24.2 ) = 11882.25328 Actual = 12,005

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