Predicting and Preparing for Natural Disasters Margaret A. Davidson Director NOAA Coastal Services Center June 7, 2005

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  • Predicting and Preparing for Natural DisastersMargaret A. Davidson

    DirectorNOAA Coastal Services Center

    June 7, 2005

  • HURREVAC Inland Flood Planning and Response Tool

    Capabilities: emergency managers can access real-time flood information: current rainfall estimates rainfall forecasts current and forecasted river stages general flood alerts

    Partners: NOAA Coastal Services Center NOAA National Weather Service Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

  • NOAA Pacific Services Center Risk Management Activities

    Hazards Training and Technical Assistance Locally Applicable, Regionally Replicable Decision-Support Tools Natural Hazards Regional Partnerships and Integration Pacific Islands Geospatial Network Pacific Islands Mapping Activities Database Pacific Islands Spatial Training

  • Pacific Risk Management Ohana (PRiMO) Roundtable in 2004 Second meeting in March 2005

    Working Groups/hui o hana:

    Coastal, Ocean, and Atmospheric Processes and Observations

    Data Management

    Data Analysis and Decision-Support Tools

    Communications Infrastructure and Information Dissemination

    Education, Outreach, and Training

    Traditional Knowledge and Practices Enhance communication, coordination, and collaboration among the Pacific islands agencies, institutions, and organizations involved in natural hazards risk management

  • Flood Forecast Mapping

    Web based flood inundation maps for emergency managersUsed LIDAR data from FEMA and State of North Carolina

    Built unsteady hydraulic model for 73 miles of Tar River with NOAA NWS and CSC

    Presented flood forecast results in easy to read format over the Web

    Used operationally by NWS Southeast River Forecast Center as flood forecast tool during Hurricane Isabel (2003)

  • Historical Hurricane Tracks Tool

    Search for tropical cyclone tracks by city, state, or zip code, latitude and longitude, or geographic region

    View coastal population data versus hurricane strikes for coastal counties from Maine to Texas

    Access tropical cyclone reports written by specialists at the National Hurricane Center

  • Providing Resources and Assistance During HurricanesGIS assistance to FEMA for forecast information and decision making

    Products used for FEMA Presidential Briefing Package

    Products used for resource allocation decisions

  • Group on Earth Observations (GEO) Integrated Earth Observation System Public Engagement Workshop

    Ocean.US Second Annual IOOS Implementation Conference

    Key Message

    High resolution shallow coastal bathymetric and topographic data (Digital Elevation Models) are essential framework for:

    modeling and understanding coastal risk and vulnerability to inundation, from a variety of causes

    other applications, including coastal habitat assessmentObserving Systems and Coastal Disasters

    5-10 minutes

    Panelists will discuss technological investments and other tools necessary to help communities predict and prepare for natural disasters such as tsunamis.

    VADM Lautenbacher is moderating the session, other panelists include:Dr. Andy Clark, Industry Representative, Ocean.USJohn Cummings, Planning and Operations Officer, Oahu Civil DefenseDr. Ellen Prager, President, Earth2Ocean, Inc.Dr. Sanjayan Muttulingam, Lead Scientist, TNC

    Pilots: North Carolina and Florida- successful, positive feedback from EMs

    Goal: Develop an operational inland flood evacuation planning and response tool to address the needs of federal, state, and local emergency management agencies related to inland flooding

    Tool Capabilities: Enable emergency managers to access real-time flood related informationInformation on historical flood impacts and relationship to FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) map products

    Availability: Used by 4,450 official government emergency managers. Hydrologic forecast and observation data provided continuously for 1,052 locations in 22 states from Maine to Texas, plus Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands

    established at the 2004 Roundtable of Federal Hazard Mitigation Partners in the Pacific Islands (FHMPPI) Enhance communication, coordination, and collaboration among federal network partners in the Pacific Islands, and specifically to describe agency, institution, or organization hazard mitigation projects and activitieswhat they involve, where they are being conducted, by whom, and when; identify gaps and overlaps, priority needs, and information dissemination challenges and opportunities; and develop an action plan to support sustained dialogue among Pacific island partners.

    Also to cultivate a sense of community and an appreciation for the unique physical and cultural characteristics of the Pacific IslandsThe Tar River Basin pilot site - Animation shows example flooding from Hurricane Floyd, note the timestamp on the maps changeshighly accurate digital elevation data were collected by the state of NC. Using these data, along with the hydrologic model that was created in partnership with NWS, created flood forecast models for the entire basin.

    Rather than seeing a text file of forecast stage and times, users get aerial views of the forecast inundation overlaid on traditional GIS layers.

    the outputs of the model are still being tested by NWS.

    Through the use of a dynamic hydraulic routing model, we are able to forecast the entire reach of river rather than just the forecast points.

    An interactive mapping application to easily search and display Atlantic and East-Central Pacific tropical cyclone data

    two May 2005 meetings GEO and Ocean.US