Predicting 2013 Trend of Homicide Rate in St. Louis

City

By Shih-Hua ChenYao ZhangTeng ma

Group E URL: www.umsl.edu/~yz3pd/is6833.html

Objectives

• Predicting the neighborhood(s) with the highest homicide rate in 2013.

St. Louis City Overview

• The 52nd largest city in the nation• Population: 318,069 (based on 2011 Census)• Percent high school graduate or higher 81.90%• Median household income $34,402• Individual below poverty level 26.0%• 10% rely on public transit • The most dangerous city in the US in 2007 and

2010, & the 2nd most dangerous in 2011 (CNN Money).

• St. Louis City consists of 79 neighborhoods.

St. Louis City Overview

• 7 year homicide rate trend

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201120.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

50.00

37.86 37.19

39.63

46.88

40.26

40.55

35.26

Homicide Rate per 100,000 people

Homicide Rate per 100,000 people

Overview

Methodology• Quantitative

o Trend analysis/linear regression• Based on 8-year murder rate historical data

and population per neighborhood

o Multiple regression• Based on 8-year murder rate historical data,

limited income and education statistics

Trend Analysis Sampling• There are about 70 neighborhoods in City of St

Louis (http://www.slmpd.org/crime_stats.html)• Murder Rate=murder index/population*1,000• Choose neighborhood with population>5,000• 4 neighborhoods with high rate-Jeff Venderlou,

O'Fallon, The Great Ville, Well/GoodFellow• 2 representative neighborhoods from Central & south St.

Louis-Central West End & Tower Grove

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 PopulationMurder Rate(2005)MR 2006 MR 2007 MR 2008 MR 2009 MR 2010 MR 2011 MR 2012Academy 2 3 4 6 3 2 2 1 2816 0.71 1.07 1.42 2.13 1.07 0.71 0.71 0.36Baden 7 5 3 6 7 4 9 7 7268 0.96 0.69 0.41 0.83 0.96 0.55 1.24 0.96Benton Park 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 3532 0.28 0.00 0.28 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.00Benton Park West 2 2 3 2 5 2 3 1 4404 0.45 0.45 0.68 0.45 1.14 0.45 0.68 0.23Bevo Mill 1 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 12654 0.08 0.16 0.08 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00Boulevard Heights 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 8708 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.00Carondelet 1 1 1 3 1 3 3 4 8661 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.35 0.12 0.35 0.35 0.46Carr Square 1 2 2 1 2 1 0 1 2774 0.36 0.72 0.72 0.36 0.72 0.36 0.00 0.36Central West End 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 1 14473 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.21 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.07Cheltenham 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 620 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.61 0.00 0.00Clayton-Tamm 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2251 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.44 0.00 0.00Clifton Heights 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 3074 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.33College Hill 3 1 6 4 6 2 4 5 1871 1.60 0.53 3.21 2.14 3.21 1.07 2.14 2.67columbus Squre 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 0 1869 0.00 0.54 0.00 1.07 0.00 0.54 0.54 0.00Covenant-Blu/Grand Ctr 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 3562 0.28 0.00 0.28 0.00 0.28 0.28 0.00 0.00DeBaliviere Place 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3466 0.00 0.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Downtown 1 0 4 2 2 1 1 2 13000 0.08 0.00 0.31 0.15 0.15 0.08 0.08 0.15Downtown West 0 2 0 3 5 1 2 0 3940 0.00 0.51 0.00 0.76 1.27 0.25 0.51 0.00Dutchtown 4 2 2 6 3 5 3 8 15770 0.25 0.13 0.13 0.38 0.19 0.32 0.19 0.51Fairground 3 4 1 5 0 9 2 2 1793 1.67 2.23 0.56 2.79 0.00 5.02 1.12 1.12Forest Park SE 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 2913 0.69 0.34 0.00 0.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.34Fountain Park 4 2 0 0 3 0 2 1 1484 2.70 1.35 0.00 0.00 2.02 0.00 1.35 0.67Fox Park 0 2 1 0 2 0 0 3 2632 0.00 0.76 0.38 0.00 0.76 0.00 0.00 1.14Gravois Park 2 0 5 3 1 4 4 5 5225 0.38 0.00 0.96 0.57 0.19 0.77 0.77 0.96Hamilton Heights 4 2 8 6 4 3 5 3 3105 1.29 0.64 2.58 1.93 1.29 0.97 1.61 0.97Hi-Point 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2169 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.46Holly Hills 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3701 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.27 0.00 0.00Hyde Park 6 3 3 4 6 5 1 4 2668 2.25 1.12 1.12 1.50 2.25 1.87 0.37 1.50Jeff Vanderlou 6 4 10 13 10 7 9 6 5557 1.08 0.72 1.80 2.34 1.80 1.26 1.62 1.08Kingsway East 2 7 2 5 3 2 2 2 3542 0.56 1.98 0.56 1.41 0.85 0.56 0.56 0.56Kingsway West 1 1 4 5 6 6 1 4 3441 0.29 0.29 1.16 1.45 1.74 1.74 0.29 1.16Lafaye e Square 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2078 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.48 0.00

Lewis Place 3 2 3 1 2 1 2 1 1673 1.79 1.20 1.79 0.60 1.20 0.60 1.20 0.60Lindenwood Park 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 9486 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.00Marine Villa 0 0 0 0 3 0 1 0 2691 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.11 0.00 0.37 0.00Mark Twain 2 2 11 11 5 6 3 3 4188 0.48 0.48 2.63 2.63 1.19 1.43 0.72 0.72Mark Twain I-70 Ind. 2 3 0 2 2 4 0 3 1295 1.54 2.32 0.00 1.54 1.54 3.09 0.00 2.32McKinley Heights 1 2 0 1 0 0 1 0 1497 0.67 1.34 0.00 0.67 0.00 0.00 0.67 0.00Midtown 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 5652 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.18 0.00 0.18Mount Pleasant 3 0 2 0 0 1 4 0 4408 0.68 0.00 0.45 0.00 0.00 0.23 0.91 0.00Near N. Riverfront 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 553 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.81 1.81North Hampton 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7892 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00North Point 0 0 1 3 0 7 1 3 3966 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.76 0.00 1.77 0.25 0.76North Riverfront 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 937 1.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00O'Fallon 5 9 7 9 3 6 1 5 5791 0.86 1.55 1.21 1.55 0.52 1.04 0.17 0.86Old North St. Louis 0 2 0 2 1 4 2 0 1916 0.00 1.04 0.00 1.04 0.52 2.09 1.04 0.00Patch 1 1 2 0 3 0 0 0 2695 0.37 0.37 0.74 0.00 1.11 0.00 0.00 0.00Peabody-Darst-Webbe 0 2 0 1 1 0 3 1 2378 0.00 0.84 0.00 0.42 0.42 0.00 1.26 0.42Penrose 2 5 9 5 6 5 3 2 6387 0.31 0.78 1.41 0.78 0.94 0.78 0.47 0.31Princeton Heights 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7619 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Shaw 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 6811 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.00Soulard 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 3440 0.29 0.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.29St. Louis Hills 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 7373 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.00St. Louis Place 3 2939 2939 2939 2939 2939 2939 2939 2939 1.02 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00The Great Ville 10 9 4 5 5 5 5 1 6189 1.62 1.45 0.65 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.16The Hill 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 2443 0.00 0.41 0.00 0.41 0.00 0.00 0.41 0.00The Ville 0 2 0 3 2 3 1 1 1868 0.00 1.07 0.00 1.61 1.07 1.61 0.54 0.54Tiffany 0 0 1 3 0 1 1 0 1060 0.00 0.00 0.94 2.83 0.00 0.94 0.94 0.00Tower Grove East 0 4 0 1 0 2 1 3 5853 0.00 0.68 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.34 0.17 0.51Tower Grove South 0 3 2 2 3 2 3 0 13333 0.00 0.23 0.15 0.15 0.23 0.15 0.23 0.00Vandeventer 4 0 0 2 2 3 1 2 1682 2.38 0.00 0.00 1.19 1.19 1.78 0.59 1.19Walnut Park East 13 5 4 3 3 3 4 7 4130 3.15 1.21 0.97 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.97 1.69Walnut Park West 5 8 5 5 3 1 4 5 3349 1.49 2.39 1.49 1.49 0.90 0.30 1.19 1.49Well/GoodFellow 9 4 14 7 10 5 5 3 5859 1.54 0.68 2.39 1.19 1.71 0.85 0.85 0.51West End 3 8 1 5 5 4 2 3 6574 0.46 1.22 0.15 0.76 0.76 0.61 0.30 0.46

Trend Analysis Method• Linear Regrssion using EXCEL TREND function• The TREND(known_y's, known_x's, new_x's, constant) function is

used to perform Linear Regression.• A least squares criterion is used and TREND tries to find the best

fit under that criterion. • Known_y's represent data on the "dependent variable" and

known_x's represent data on one or more "independent variables". 

• Difference between TREND & FORECAST(Microsoft excel)

-TREND is more suited to data points in a series such as a time series

-Forecast: not necessary to be time series

(http://support.microsoft.com/kb/828801)(http://en.allexperts.com/q/Excel-1059/Excel-Functions-FORECAST-

vs.htm)

Known_x’s-murder RateKnown_y’s-year (define as 1-8)Coefficient-slope

Jeff Venderlou

O’Fallon

The Greater Ville

Wells-Good Fellow

0 2 0 3 0 2 0 1 1Muder Index0 0.138 0 0.207 0 0.138 0 0.069 0.069Murder Rate

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Central West EndCentral St. Louis

0 4 0 1 0 2 1 3 2.162Muder Index

0 0.6834 0 0.171 0 0.342 0.171 0.5126 0.369Murder Rate2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Year

Tower Grove East

South City

ResultNorth City-Highest Murder Rate in 2013 (per 1,000 people)• Jeffvanderlou 1.587• Wells-Goodfellow 0.658• O’Fallon 0.518 • The Greater Ville 0.196The results show a downward trend in North city—good!

Multiple Regression• To find relationship of murder rate with other factors.• Hypothesis: income, population, and high school

graduation rate have some relationship with murder rate.

• We selected Jeff Vanderlou, The Greater Ville, and Wells-Goodfellow.

• Limitation: we couldn’t find complete income, population and graduation rate data of the past 8 years.

• The analysis is useful because it provides more accurate prediction with 3 variables.

• Toolso Excel – failed o SAS – succeeded

Multiple Regression -- Excel

 Coefficien

tsStandard

Error t Stat P-valueLower 95%

Upper 95%

Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%

Intercept 1.583214 0.170641 9.27803 0.00265 1.040158 2.126271 1.040158 2.126271

Year -0.15405 0.033792 -4.5587 0.019788 -0.26159 -0.04651 -0.26159 -0.04651

Population 0 0 65535 #NUM! 0 0 0 0

Income 0 0 65535 #NUM! 0 0 0 0

High school graduation rate 0 0 65535 #NUM! 0 0 0 0

The Greater Ville

Multiple Regression Method -- SAS

Multiple regression formula: y=30.2913x1-0.00279x2-0.0894x3+179.22

Multiple Regression Method -- SAS

Obs city year population edu est1 J-V 2013 5557 0.57 1.03711

2 TGV 2013 6189 0.61 0.48768

3 W-G 2013 5859 0.59 0.80141

Conclusion• North city is relatively more dangerous.• Jeff Vanderlou tops the homicide rate ranking.• Other tools – interactive crime mapping.

Highest murder rateLow murder rateModerate murder rate

References• FBI Crime in the United States 2005-2011

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2011/crime-in-the-u.s.-2011/tables/table-6

• CNN Money Most Dangerous US Cities http://money.cnn.com/gallery/real_estate/2013/01/23/dangerous-cities/2.html

• NextSTL Understanding St. Louis City Crime Index and Crime http://nextstl.com/urban-living/understanding-st-louis-total-crime-index-and-crime-ridden-neighborhoods

• SLMPD Crime Statistics http://www.slmpd.org/crime_stats.shtml• AreaVibe Neighborhoods demographic data

http://www.areavibes.com/• US Census

http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.xhtml?refresh=t

• Interactive mapping tool https://www.crimereports.com/map/index/?search=1200+Clark%20Avenue+St.%20Louis+MO&agencyzoomlevel=

• All maps are created on ArcGIS.com