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  • 1. Domains, Trends, Distribution, Types, Cost, and Mapping Tracking Novita Nurwahyuningsih 1111113000017; Leny Lediyawati 1111113000040; Revi Marlina 11111113000096; Ash Shiddiq 111211300021; Dara Atika Suri 111211300076.
  • 2. what conditions that allows the conflict?
  • 3. When members of one or more potential antagonistic parties shared identity Generate a sense of grievance Form a goal to change another party so as to reduce the grievance Change: Revolution or Conflict?
  • 4. I think Revolution as well as WARS. Look at my Thesis (Jews in Sensate Culture) in 1973 PITIRIM ALEXANDROVICH SOROKIN
  • 5. Self and Other Identity Identities vary in expanse, from individuals to vast collectivities, and they may be long enduring or ephermal. Ethnic as well as other identities serve as a basis for mobilization and organization. Identities are socially constructed on the bases of various traits and experiences. Ethnics traits are often socially regarded as set at birth, such as parental decent, religious origin, place of birth, and skin color.
  • 6. Internal Characteristic Many Interrelated internal characteristics foster forming a self-identified collectivity 1. 2. 3. 4. Homogenity Ease of Communication Clear Boundaries Organizational Potensial
  • 7. What is national Interest in this context?
  • 8. The Conflict Domain - Conflict Resolution analysts have traditionally include all levels of conflict from intrapersonal conflict through to International Conflict, and all stages of conflict escalation and de-escalation. - Conflict resolution focus to actual or potentially violent conflicts, ranging from social conflict situations which treathen to become militarized beyond the capacity of domestic civil police control, through to full scale interstate war.
  • 9. Five stages of escalation Peaceful stable situation Political tension situation Violent political conflict Low intensity conflict High intensity conflict
  • 10. Transformation in conflict studies Traditional Analyst . by Richardson Correlates of War (COW) Project . by singer and small. Defined as conflicts involving at least one member of the interstate system on each side of the war, resulting in a total of 1000 or more battle death
  • 11. Cod AKUF project by wallensteen, initiated by kende and developed by gantzel, conflict as a result of the new forms of production, monotarization of the economy and the resulting dissolution of traditional forms of social integration UPPSALA project concept of armed conflict defined as prolonged combat between the military forces of two or more governments, or of one government and at least one organized armed group, and incurring the battle related death of at least 1000 people for the duration of the conflict.
  • 12. Cod CIDCM Project, the minorities at risk project within this brave, list are drown up of ethnonationalist peoples who have fought sustained or recurrent campaigns of armed forced aimed at least in part at securing national independence for a communal group, or their unification with kindred groups in adjoining states. Terrorist and guerilla strategic are count. Humanitarianism and war project,populations at risk in complex humanitarian emergencies.
  • 13. Conflict Trends According to the Uppsala University data over period 1989-1996 there was an almost constant decline in the number of major armed conflicts worldwide. There was a pattern of conflict in 1990s in which the prime emphasis was on challanges to existing state authority, including secessionist movements which treaten the territorial integrity of the state and challanges to central control which may also end in fragmentation with no one actor in overall command.
  • 14. Distribution Dengan berakhirnya perang dingin, pola daerah konflik menjadi lebih signifikan pada pola regional atau kawasan. terdapat beberapa perbedaan karakter konflik dari wilayah satu ke wilayah lain. Terdiri dari zones of peace" dan zones of war".
  • 15. Variasi Konflik Dari setiap regional memiliki karakteristik yang berbeda-beda. pluralistic security communities Zones of peace No-war zones Zones of war
  • 16. Conflict Types Interstate : Gulf War Non-interstate a) revolution / ideology : Algeria b) Identity / secession : Sri Lanka c) Factional : Liberia
  • 17. Singers conflict typology a) b) c) d) Interstate wars Extra-systemic (mainly colonial) wars civil conflicts The increasingly complex intrastate wars in former colonial states
  • 18. Holstis conflict typology a) Standard state versus state wars : china and india in 1962 b) Decolonizing wars of national liberation c) Internal wars based on ideological goals : the Sendero Luminoso in Peru d) State-nation wars including armed resistance by ethnic, language and/or religious groups, often with the purpose of secession or separation from the state : the Tamils in Sri Lanka
  • 19. CONFLICT COST - Manusia (Terutama Wanita dan anak-anak) 28 juta orang terbunuh dalam 150 konflik bersenjata di dunia ketiga sejak 1945 (IISS, 1997); 40 juta sipil dan militer tewas (Leitenberg); PD 2 mengakibatkan sebanyak 50 persen sipil yang tewas meningkat sejak PD 1(Lake,ed.,1940) Terutama di negara berkembang/dunia ketiga, akibat kelaparan menyebabkan orang-orang berkonflik untuk mendapatkan makanan, sebab hal tersebut merupakan cara agar mereka bertahan hidup (Negara-negara Afrika: Angola, Eritrea, Liberia, Mozambique, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan)
  • 20. Co'd - Pertumbuhan Ekonomi pada negara yang terlibat konflik (in context internal conflicts) Failing production; Failing Exports; Greater indebtness; Failing social expenditure - Efek terhadap negara tetangga Karena masih dalam satu kawasan regional, jelas akan mengurangi pertumbuhan ekonomi negara sekitar - Diversion to military purpose - TOC Drugs, senjata, humman trafficking - Lingkungan Sekitar
  • 21. Case Study MOZAMBIQUE
  • 22. Conflict Mapping and Conflict Tracking Conflict Mapping? First Step in Intervening to Manage a Particular Conflict. It Gives Both The Intervenor and The Conflict Parties a Clearer Understanding of The Origin, Nature, Dynamics and Possibilities for Resolution of The Conflict. (Paul Wehr/1997:18)
  • 23. A Conflict Mapping Guide A. Background B. The Conflict Parties and Issues C. The Context: Global, Regional, and State-Level Actors. (Wehr:1979)
  • 24. Co'd Next Step? Menggunakan informasi di map untuk mengidentifikasi cakupan resolusi konflik. Perubahan dalam konteks yang mana dapat merubah situasi konflik Perubahan dalam atau antar pihak yang berkonflik Meredefinisi tujuan dan mencari alternatif untuk menyelesaikan perbedaan
  • 25. Co'd Conflict Tracking? For Keep Updating How? Internet Terdapat beberapa website yang dirancang untuk conflict tracking, diantaranya: www.icg.org, www.euroconflict.org, www.incore.ulst.ac.uk.
  • 26. Thank you Any question?