ppp nm senate poll 6-27-11

8/6/2019 Ppp Nm Senate Poll 6-27-11

1/20

Public Policy Polling3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

Phone: 888 621-6988Web: www.publicpolicypolling.comEmail: [email protected]

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE June 28, 2011

INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312

IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE [email protected], OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH

OF THE PRESS RELEASE

New Mexico Senate leans towards the Democrats

Raleigh, N.C. With the retirement of Democratic Senator Jeff Bingaman, the race has

become more competitive; however, the Democrats remain favored to retain the seat.

State Auditor Hector Balderas and Congressman Martin Heinrich both lead their potential

Republican opponents. Balderas leads Lieutenant Governor John Sanchez 39-35, former

Congresswoman Heather Wilson 45-39, and businessman Greg Sowards 42-28. Heinrichachieves similar margins, leading Sanchez 45-39, Wilson 47-42 (Narrowing from 50-39

in February), and Sowards 46-34. While crossover support is either even or to the

Republicans advantage in each matchup, the Democrats have a significant advantagewith independents aside from the Sanchez-Balderas race. In a state where Democrats

outnumber Republicans 51-32, thats a recipe for a Democratic victory.

Aside from Wilson, the field is relatively unknown with 32% or more unwilling to

venture an opinion one way or the other on the other candidates. Both Democrats are

slightly in positive territory among those who know them. 22% see Balderas favorably

compared to 17% who see him unfavorably. Heinrich is better known and about aspopular with a 36-32 rating. The Republicans on the other hand are not well liked.Sanchez rates most favorably 23-28, followed by Wilson at 38-45, and Sowards at 7-17.

With such low name recognition among the candidates, the race has the potential to be

very fluid and the Democrats cant take it for granted.

This race is going to be competitive but it has a clear lean toward the Democrats, said

Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. Wilson and Sanchez probably arent

strong enough candidates to win the seat if Barack Obama simultaneously takes the stateby double digits as he did in 2008.

PPP will release Presidential numbers for New Mexico tomorrow and will look at the

primaries for Senate later this week as well.

PPP surveyed 732 New Mexico voters from June 23th to 26th. The margin of error for the

survey is +/-3.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or politicalorganization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is

a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of theNew York Times

found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republicancandidates.


2/20

June 23-26, 2011Survey of 732 New Mexico voters


3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

[email protected] / 888 621-6988



New Mexico Survey Results

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof Hector Balderas?

22%Favorable........................................................

17%Unfavorable....................................................

61%Not sure..........................................................

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof Martin Heinrich?

36%Favorable........................................................

32%Unfavorable....................................................

32%Not sure..........................................................

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof John Sanchez?

23%Favorable........................................................

28%Unfavorable....................................................

49%Not sure..........................................................

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof Greg Sowards?

7%Favorable........................................................

17%Unfavorable....................................................

77%Not sure..........................................................

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof Heather Wilson?

38%Favorable........................................................

45%Unfavorable....................................................

17%Not sure..........................................................

Q6 If the candidates for US Senate next year wereDemocrat Hector Balderas and RepublicanJohn Sanchez, who would you vote for?

39%Hector Balderas..............................................

35%John Sanchez.................................................

25%Undecided.......................................................

Q7 If the candidates for US Senate next year wereDemocrat Hector Balderas and RepublicanGreg Sowards, who would you vote for?

42%Hector Balderas..............................................

28%Greg Sowards.................................................

30%Undecided.......................................................

Q8 If the candidates for US Senate next year wereDemocrat Hector Balderas and RepublicanHeather Wilson, who would you vote for?

45%Hector Balderas..............................................39%Heather Wilson...............................................

16%Undecided.......................................................

Q9 If the candidates for US Senate next year wereDemocrat Martin Heinrich and RepublicanJohn Sanchez, who would you vote for?

45%Martin Heinrich................................................

39%John Sanchez.................................................

16%Undecided.......................................................

Q10 If the candidates for US Senate next year wereDemocrat Martin Heinrich and RepublicanGreg Sowards, who would you vote for?

46%Martin Heinrich................................................

34%Greg Sowards.................................................

20%Undecided.......................................................

Q11 If the candidates for US Senate next year wereDemocrat Martin Heinrich and RepublicanHeather Wilson, who would you vote for?

47%Martin Heinrich................................................

42%Heather Wilson...............................................

11%Undecided.......................................................

Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?

37%John McCain...................................................

53%Barack Obama................................................

10%Someone else/Don't remember......................


3/20







Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,

somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhatconservative, or very conservative?

13%Very liberal......................................................

20%Somewhat liberal............................................

29%Moderate.........................................................

19%Somewhat conservative..................................

19%Very conservative...........................................

Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

54%Woman...........................................................

46%Man.................................................................

Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,press 2. If you are an independent or identifywith another party, press 3.

51%Democrat........................................................

32%Republican......................................................

17%Independent/Other..........................................

Q16 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.

If other, press 3.39%Hispanic..........................................................

49%White..............................................................

12%Other...............................................................

Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you areolder than 65, press 4.

15%18 to 29...........................................................

22%30 to 45...........................................................

41%46 to 65...........................................................

22%Older than 65..................................................


4/20

June 23-26, 2011survey of 732 New Mexico votersJune 23-26, 2011survey of 732 New Mexico voters





Crosstabs

Base

2008 Vote

John

McCain

Barack

Obama

Someone else/Don't

remember

Balderas Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

22% 15% 28% 10%

17% 19% 16% 18%

61% 66% 56% 72%

Base

2008 Vote

John

McCain

Barack

Obama

Someone else/Don't

remember

Heinrich Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

36% 12% 54% 28%

32% 53% 17% 38%

32% 35% 29% 34%

Base

2008 Vote

John

McCain

Barack

Obama

Someone else/Don't

rememberSanchez Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

23% 37% 13% 23%

28% 17% 36% 25%

49% 46% 51% 53%

Base

2008 Vote

John

McCain

Barack

Obama

Someone else/Don't

rememberSowards Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

7% 10% 5% 5%

17% 12% 19% 17%

77% 78% 75% 78%


5/20






Crosstabs

Base

2008 Vote

John

McCain

Barack

Obama

Someone else/Don't

remember

Wilson Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

38% 61% 21% 47%

45% 23% 61% 42%

17% 17% 18% 11%

Base

2008 Vote

John

McCain

Barack

Obama

Someone else/Don't

remember

Balderas/Sanchez

Hector Balderas

John Sanchez

Undecided

39% 12% 62% 21%

35% 68% 12% 37%

25% 20% 26% 42%

Base

2008 Vote

John

McCain

Barack

Obama

Someone else/Don't

rememberBalderas/Sowards

Hector Balderas

Greg Sowards

Undecided

42% 11% 68% 20%

28% 58% 7% 33%

30% 31% 25% 47%

Base

2008 Vote

John

McCain

Barack

Obama

Someone else/Don't

rememberBalderas/Wilson

Hector Balderas

Heather Wilson

Undecided

45% 10% 72% 29%

39% 75% 12% 46%

16% 14% 15% 25%


6/20






Crosstabs

Base

2008 Vote

John

McCain

Barack

Obama

Someone else/Don't

remember

Heinrich/Sanchez

Martin Heinrich

John Sanchez

Undecided

45% 12% 71% 32%

39% 76% 14% 38%

16% 12% 15% 31%

Base

2008 Vote

John

McCain

Barack

Obama

Someone else/Don't

remember

Heinrich/Sowards

Martin Heinrich

Greg Sowards

Undecided

46% 12% 74% 25%

34% 68% 10% 38%

20% 20% 17% 38%

Base

2008 Vote

John

McCain

Barack

Obama

Someone else/Don't

rememberHeinrich/Wilson

Martin Heinrich

Heather Wilson

Undecided

47% 12% 74% 33%

42% 79% 15% 48%

11% 9% 11% 20%

Base

Ideology

Very

liberal

Somewhat

liberal Moderate

Somewhat

conservative

Very

conservative


Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

22% 21% 26% 27% 20% 10%

17% 22% 18% 15% 19% 14%

61% 57% 56% 58% 61% 76%


7/20






Crosstabs

Base

Ideology

Very

liberal

Somewhat

liberal Moderate

Somewhat

conservative

Very

conservative


Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

36% 64% 46% 45% 19% 7%

32% 13% 19% 25% 50% 52%

32% 24% 34% 30% 30% 41%

Base

Ideology

Very

liberal

Somewhat

liberal Moderate

Somewhat

conservative

Very

conservative

Sanchez Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

23% 9% 14% 18% 33% 40%

28% 42% 34% 32% 19% 16%

49% 49% 52% 50% 49% 44%

Base

Ideology

Very

liberal

Somewhat

liberal Moderate

Somewhat

conservative

Very

conservative

Sowards Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

7% 6% 4% 7% 8% 9%

17% 22% 20% 16% 13% 14%

77% 72% 76% 77% 79% 78%

Base

Ideology

Very

liberal

Somewhat

liberal Moderate

Somewhat

conservative

Very

conservative

Wilson Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

38% 20% 21% 31% 56% 62%

45% 65% 62% 52% 31% 17%

17% 14% 18% 17% 13% 21%


8/20






Crosstabs

Base

Ideology

Very

liberal

Somewhat

liberal Moderate

Somewhat

conservative

Very

conservative

Balderas/Sanchez

Hector Balderas

John Sanchez

Undecided

39% 68% 60% 49% 14% 9%

35% 8% 14% 20% 65% 71%

25% 24% 26% 32% 21% 20%

Base

Ideology

Very

liberal

Somewhat

liberal Moderate

Somewhat

conservative

Very

conservative

Balderas/Sowards

Hector Balderas

Greg Sowards

Undecided

42% 72% 70% 50% 16% 6%

28% 9% 4% 14% 48% 69%

30% 19% 26% 35% 37% 25%

Base

Ideology

Very

liberal

Somewhat

liberal Moderate

Somewhat

conservative

Very

conservative

Balderas/Wilson

Hector Balderas

Heather Wilson

Undecided

45% 75% 70% 58% 18% 6%

39% 14% 15% 21% 67% 81%

16% 11% 15% 21% 15% 13%

Base

Ideology

Very

liberal

Somewhat

liberal Moderate

Somewhat

conservative

Very

conservative

Heinrich/Sanchez

Martin Heinrich

John Sanchez

Undecided

45% 77% 69% 56% 18% 10%

39% 10% 12% 26% 66% 79%

16% 13% 19% 17% 16% 11%


9/20






Crosstabs

Base

Ideology

Very

liberal

Somewhat

liberal Moderate

Somewhat

conservative

Very

conservative

Heinrich/Sowards

Martin Heinrich

Greg Sowards

Undecided

46% 80% 69% 56% 24% 6%

34% 7% 11% 21% 54% 78%

20% 13% 20% 23% 22% 16%

Base

Ideology

Very

liberal

Somewhat

liberal Moderate

Somewhat

conservative

Very

conservative

Heinrich/Wilson

Martin Heinrich

Heather Wilson

Undecided

47% 83% 69% 61% 19% 6%

42% 7% 18% 27% 70% 85%

11% 9% 13% 12% 11% 9%

Base

Gender

Wom an Man


Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

22% 21% 22%

17% 14% 21%

61% 65% 57%

Base

Gender

Wom an Man


Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

36% 35% 36%

32% 30% 35%

32% 35% 29%


10/20






Crosstabs

Base

Gender

Wom an Man


Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

23% 22% 24%

28% 25% 32%

49% 53% 44%

Base

Gender

Wom an Man


Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

7% 7% 7%

17% 12% 22%

77% 81% 71%

Base

Gender

Wom an Man

Wilson Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

38% 33% 45%

45% 48% 41%

17% 19% 14%

Base

Gender

Wom an Man

Balderas/Sanchez

Hector Balderas

John Sanchez

Undecided

39% 41% 38%

35% 32% 39%

25% 27% 23%


11/20






Crosstabs

Base

Gender

Wom an Man

Balderas/Sowards

Hector Balderas

Greg Sowards

Undecided

42% 44% 40%

28% 25% 32%

30% 30% 29%

Base

Gender

Wom an Man

Balderas/Wilson

Hector Balderas

Heather Wilson

Undecided

45% 49% 40%

39% 33% 46%

16% 18% 14%

Base

Gender

Wom an Man

Heinrich/Sanchez

Martin Heinrich

John Sanchez

Undecided

45% 48% 42%

39% 35% 43%

16% 16% 15%

Base

Gender

Wom an Man

Heinrich/Sowards

Martin Heinrich

Greg Sowards

Undecided

46% 50% 42%

34% 30% 39%

20% 20% 19%


12/20






Crosstabs

Base

Gender

Wom an Man

Heinrich/Wilson

Martin Heinrich

Heather Wilson

Undecided

47% 52% 41%

42% 36% 49%

11% 12% 10%

Base

Party

Democrat Republican Independent/Other


Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sur e

22% 26% 13% 24%

17% 17% 19% 13%

61% 57% 68% 63%

Base

Party


Heinrich FavorabilityFavorable

Unfavorable

Not sur e

36% 50% 14% 33%

32% 20% 50% 36%

32% 29% 37% 31%

Base

Party


Sanchez FavorabilityFavorable

Unfavorable

Not sur e

23% 16% 33% 23%

28% 35% 21% 22%

49% 49% 46% 54%


13/20






Crosstabs

Base

Party



Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sur e

7% 7% 9% 3%

17% 18% 13% 17%

77% 75% 77% 80%

Base

Party


Wilson Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sur e

38% 25% 62% 33%

45% 58% 24% 45%

17% 17% 14% 22%

Base

Party


Balderas/SanchezHector Balderas

John Sanchez

Undecided

39% 60% 12% 30%

35% 16% 68% 32%

25% 25% 20% 38%

Base

Party


Balderas/SowardsHector Balderas

Greg Sowards

Undecided

42% 64% 10% 37%

28% 10% 63% 19%

30% 26% 27% 44%


14/20






Crosstabs

Base

Party


Balderas/Wilson

Hector Balderas

Heather Wilson

Undecided

45% 65% 14% 43%

39% 20% 73% 34%

16% 15% 14% 23%

Base

Party


Heinrich/Sanchez

Martin Heinrich

John Sanchez

Undecided

45% 65% 15% 45%

39% 19% 74% 32%

16% 16% 12% 23%

Base

Party


Heinrich/SowardsMartin Heinrich

Greg Sowards

Undecided

46% 68% 13% 41%

34% 13% 72% 27%

20% 19% 15% 32%

Base

Party


Heinrich/WilsonMartin Heinrich

Heather Wilson

Undecided

47% 68% 13% 47%

42% 21% 79% 35%

11% 11% 8% 17%


15/20






Crosstabs

Base

Race

Hispanic White Other


Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

22% 30% 15% 23%

17% 16% 19% 13%

61% 54% 66% 64%

Base

Race



Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

36% 39% 32% 36%

32% 31% 35% 28%

32% 30% 33% 36%

Base

Race



Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

23% 25% 22% 20%

28% 28% 28% 27%

49% 47% 50% 53%

Base

Race



Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

7% 7% 8% 1%

17% 17% 15% 21%

77% 76% 77% 78%


16/20






Crosstabs

Base

Race


Wilson Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

38% 36% 42% 31%

45% 46% 44% 48%

17% 18% 14% 21%

Base

Race


Balderas/Sanchez

Hector Balderas

John Sanchez

Undecided

39% 47% 35% 34%

35% 30% 41% 29%

25% 24% 24% 37%

Base

Race


Balderas/Sowards

Hector Balderas

Greg Sowards

Undecided

42% 52% 36% 36%

28% 21% 35% 24%

30% 27% 29% 40%

Base

Race


Balderas/Wilson

Hector Balderas

Heather Wilson

Undecided

45% 53% 39% 45%

39% 32% 47% 27%

16% 15% 14% 29%


17/20






Crosstabs

Base

Race


Heinrich/Sanchez

Martin Heinrich

John Sanchez

Undecided

45% 50% 43% 41%

39% 36% 45% 27%

16% 14% 13% 32%

Base

Race


Heinrich/Sowards

Martin Heinrich

Greg Sowards

Undecided

46% 51% 41% 50%

34% 28% 41% 25%

20% 20% 18% 26%

Base

Race


Heinrich/Wilson

Martin Heinrich

Heather Wilson

Undecided

47% 53% 42% 46%

42% 38% 47% 30%

11% 8% 10% 24%

Base

Age

18 to

29

30 to

45

46 to

65

Older

than 65


Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

22% 21% 21% 23% 20%

17% 16% 12% 19% 20%

61% 63% 67% 59% 60%


18/20






Crosstabs

Base

Age

18 to

29

30 to

45

46 to

65

Older

than 65


Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

36% 39% 27% 41% 32%

32% 36% 32% 29% 38%

32% 25% 41% 31% 30%

Base

Age

18 to

29

30 to

45

46 to

65

Older

than 65


Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

23% 27% 21% 22% 24%

28% 29% 14% 34% 30%

49% 45% 65% 44% 45%

Base

Age

18 to

29

30 to

45

46 to

65

Older

than 65


Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

7% 9% 5% 8% 7%

17% 18% 5% 20% 21%

77% 73% 91% 72% 72%

Base

Age

18 to

29

30 to

45

46 to

65

Older

than 65

Wilson Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

38% 41% 36% 35% 44%

45% 38% 44% 51% 40%

17% 21% 20% 13% 17%


19/20






Crosstabs

Base

Age

18 to

29

30 to

45

46 to

65

Older

than 65

Balderas/Sanchez

Hector Balderas

John Sanchez

Undecided

39% 45% 29% 44% 38%

35% 34% 35% 34% 39%

25% 21% 36% 22% 23%

Base

Age

18 to

29

30 to

45

46 to

65

Older

than 65

Balderas/Sowards

Hector Balderas

Greg Sowards

Undecided

42% 43% 35% 47% 41%

28% 34% 30% 24% 31%

30% 23% 35% 30% 28%

Base

Age

18 to

29

30 to

45

46 to

65

Older

than 65

Balderas/Wilson

Hector Balderas

Heather Wilson

Undecided

45% 48% 47% 45% 41%

39% 38% 32% 40% 47%

16% 14% 21% 15% 13%

Base

Age

18 to

29

30 to

45

46 to

65

Older

than 65

Heinrich/Sanchez

Martin Heinrich

John Sanchez

Undecided

45% 48% 44% 47% 42%

39% 36% 39% 37% 45%

16% 16% 17% 16% 13%


20/20



information@publicpolicypolling com / 888 621-6988


information@publicpolicypolling com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Base

Age

18 to

29

30 to

45

46 to

65

Older

than 65

Heinrich/Sowards

Martin Heinrich

Greg Sowards

Undecided

46% 48% 39% 50% 44%

34% 38% 36% 31% 36%

20% 14% 24% 19% 21%

Base

Age

18 to

29

30 to

45

46 to

65

Older

than 65

Heinrich/Wilson

Martin Heinrich

Heather Wilson

Undecided

47% 46% 45% 50% 43%

42% 45% 41% 38% 47%

11% 9% 14% 11% 10%

ppp nm senate poll 6-27-11

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