poverty on the rise in south africa - poverty trends in south africa: an examination of absolute...
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POVERTY TRENDS IN SOUTH AFRICA
An examination of absolute poverty between 2006 and 2015Dr Pali LehohlaStatistician-General
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SignificantstrideshavebeenmadebyGovernmenttowardspovertyandinequality
reduction
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• In2001widedispersionofPovertywithMsingahavingapovertyHeadcountofaround60%
• Between2001and2011povertygenerallydeclinesforallmunicipalities
• Howeverbetween2011and2016povertytrendsdivergebetweenmunicipalities
MultidimensionalPovertybyMunicipalities2001-2016
MsingaHeadcount59,8%
MsingaHeadcount24,5%
Intsika YethuHeadcount27,7%
MsingaHeadcount37,2%
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71% 70%
58% 55% 54% 54%
52% 50%
44% 41%
11% 10%
21% 25% 22% 26% 26% 32%
36% 32%
0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 80,0 90,0 100,0
WC
GP
RSA
FS
MP
KZN
NW
NC
EC
LP
Salaries Remittances Pensions Grants Othersources None
Considerableprovincialvariationsarenotable.WesternCape(71,0%)andGauteng(70,0%)weretheonlytwoprovincesinwhichmorethantwo-thirdsofhouseholdsreportedsalariesastheirmainsourcesofincome.
Percentagedistributionofmainsourceofincomebyprovince,2016
Source:GHS2016
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63,9%
77,2%71,9%
88,1%94,5% 92,2%
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0
Male Female Total
Perc
enta
ge
Allolderpersons Olderpoorpersons
Nationally,71,9%ofallolderpersonsinSouthAfricaarecoveredbyanold-agegrant,whereasthecoveragerateamongstolderpoorpersons(asdefinedbytheUBPL)wasnotablyhigherat92,2%.
Proportionofolderpersons(60+)receivingoldagegrantsbysexin2015
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Governmentinterventionstowardspovertyandinequalityreduction
About 3.6 million households are registered as indigent households of which;
62,8% receive free electricity
67,8%receive free piped water
57,6%receive free sanitation services
57,6%receive free refuse removal services
To date more than 17 million social grants are issued on monthly basis to people who qualify the means test
About 4.3 million RDP houses and subsidies have been delivered since 1994
About 76.2% of pupils in South Africa are benefiting from school feeding schemes
More than 20 000 schools are declared as no fee schools
Source: NFCM Source: NFCM
Source: SASSA and Department of Human Settlements Source: Department of Basic Education
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Source: Gross domestic product (GDP), Q4 2016
CurrentstatevsNDPtarget:Economicgrowth
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22,3 million(down by 150 000 q-q)
Labour force
16,1 million(down by 113 000 q-q)
Employed
6,2 million(down by 37 000 q-q)
Unemployed
14,9 million(up by 306 000 q-q)
Not economically active*
*Of which 2,4 million were discouraged work
seekers( up by 83 000 q-q)
37,2 million(up by 157 000 q-q)
people of working age in South Africa
(15 – 64 year olds)
ILO hierarchy – Employed first then unemployed and the remainder is NEA (including discouraged job-seekers).
3 mutually exclusive groups. Cannot be in two groups at the same time
NDP target 2030 Employment:
24 million
ThelabourmarketQ2:2017
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4,4m
6,2m
0,01,02,03,04,05,06,07,0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Milli
on
Number of unemployed
57,0%
67,2%
10,0
30,0
50,0
70,0
90,0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Long term unemployment
LabourMarketDashboard
Source: QLFS Q2 2017
Increasingnumberofunemployedpersonswerewitnessedduring2008to2015
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Reducing the proportion of persons living belowthe lower-bound poverty line
Reduceincomeinequality
Increasetheshareofincomegoingtothebottom40percentofhouseholds
Reducepoverty-inducedhunger
Seekstotacklepovertyandinequality
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Povertyisacomplexissuethatmanifestsitselfineconomic,socialandpoliticalwaysNosingledefinitionwilleverbesuitabletomeasureallfacets
anddimensionsofpoverty
WhatisPoverty?
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StatsSAappliesandmeasuresvariousdefinitionsofpoverty
Subjectivepoverty(self-perceived)
Money-metric(lackofincome/expenditure)
Multidimensionalpoverty(lackofbasicservices,education,etc.)
Inequality(Ginicoefficient,shareofexpenditure,etc.)
UsedInThis
Release
FutureReleases
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PilotofPovertyLines
Firstdevelopedaspilotlinesin2008usingtheIES2000as
itsprimaryinput
2008
20123NationalPovertyLines
In2012,StatsSApublishedthecountry’sofficialthreenationalpovertylines
20141stPTR
In2014, StatsSApublishedthefirstPovertyTrends
Report
2015
StatsSApublishedrebasedpovertylinesin2015usingthelatest
consumptionandspendingpatternsmeasuredintheIES2010/11
RebasedPovertyLines
1 2 3 4 5
2nd PTR2017
In2017, StatsSApublishedthesecondPovertyTrends
Report
StatsSAadoptedthecost-of-basic-needsapproachforthedevelopmentofthelineswhichlinkswelfaretotheconsumptionofgoodsandservices
Howthepovertylinesweredeveloped
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Thresholdofabsolutedeprivation.Theamountofmoneyrequiredtopurchasetheminimumrequireddailyenergyintake
FoodPovertyLine
R441
Austerethresholdbelowwhichonehastochoosebetweenfoodandimportantnon-fooditems
Lower-BoundPovertyLine
R647
Upper-BoundPovertyLine
R992ThresholdofrelativedeprivationbelowwhichpeoplecannotaffordtheminimumdesiredlifestylebymostSouthAfricans
*Basedon2015prices
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531
758
1 138
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (April) 2016 (April) 2017 (April)
Povertylinesatcurrent2017prices
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NonPoor -45,5%
Poor -55,5%
Over30,4million SouthAfricanswerelivinginpoverty
in2015
UpperBoundPovertyLine
PovertyheadcountsbasedontheUBPL
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Upper-BoundPovertyLine Lower-BoundPovertyLine
NonPoor -45,5%
Poor -55,5%
NonPoor- 60,0%
Poor -40,0%
NonPoor -74,8%
Poor -25,2%
FoodPovertyLine
Povertyheadcountsin2015In2015,morethanaquarterofthepopulationwerelivingbelowthefoodpovertyline
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28,4% 33,5%
21,4%
25,2%
51,0%
47,6%
36,4%
40,0%
66,6%
62,1%
53,2%
55,5%
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
2006 2009 2011 2015
Percen
tage
Approximately13,8millionSouthAfricanswerelivingbelowtheFPLin2015,downfromapeakof16,7millionin2009.
PovertyheadcountsbasedontheFPL,LBPLandUBPL
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7,4 7,2 8,6 8,5
10,7 7,0 7,7 8,1
13,4 16,7 11,0 13,8
15,8 18,9 24,024,4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2006 2009 2011 2015
Millions
UBPLPoor LBPLPoor FPLPoor Non-Poor
InPoverty
Non
Poo
r
ThenumberofpoorpersonsinSouthAfrica(inmillions)(2006- 2015)
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77,5%
70,3%
57,3%
55,2%
53,6%
55,0%
64,7%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
0-17
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
Povertyin2006
Children
Elderly
Changeinpovertybetween2006and2015
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
0-17
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+ - 20,7%Points
-10,7%Points
-11,7%Points
-11,4%Points
- 10,2%Points
-10,2%Points
- 6,3%Points
Povertyin2015
Children
Elderly
Changeinpovertybetween2006and2015
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Circumstancesvarybetweenprovinces,betweenruralandurban,bypopulationgroup
andbygender
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25,0
35,0
45,0
55,0
65,0
75,0
85,0
2006
2009
2011
2015
2006
2009
2011
2015
2006
2009
2011
2015
2006
2009
2011
2015
2006
2009
2011
2015
2006
2009
2011
2015
2006
2009
2011
2015
2006
2009
2011
2015
2006
2009
2011
2015
LP ECKZN
MPNC
NW
FS
WCGP
ThepoorestthreeprovincesinthecountryhaveconsistentlybeenLimpopo,EasternCape&KwaZulu-Natal.
WesternCape&Gautengremainthetwoprovinceswiththelowestpovertyheadcountsat37,1%&33%respectively.
ForPeriods2006/2009/2011/2015
Povertyheadcountsbyprovince(UBPL)
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52,0 46,8
38,840,6
87,6 88,0
77,081,3
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0
2006 2009 2011 2015
Perc
enta
ge
Rural
Urban
Inurbanareas,thepovertyheadcounthaddeclinednotablyfrom52,0%in2006to40,6%in2015.
Poorpeoplelivinginruralareaswerenotonlyfurtherawayfromthepovertylineonaverage,butthepoorestofthepoorinthoseareasaresignificantlyworseoffthantheirpoorcounterpartslivinginurbanareas.
DifferenceinpovertylevelsbetweenRuralandUrban
Povertyheadcountsbysettlementtype(UBPL)
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64,1% 60,1%
51,4% 53,7%
68,9% 63,9%
54,9% 57,2%
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
2006 2009 2011 2015
Percen
tage
Females remain more disadvantaged than males consistently recording a higher headcount, gap and severity measures at each point in time; however, the difference between the sexes is narrowing.
Povertyheadcountsbysex(UBPL)
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43,3
40,1
31,7
33,0
65,857,6
47,850,0
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
2006 2009 2011 2015
Perc
enta
ge
Male Female
In2015,theincidenceofpovertyformale-headedhouseholdsincreasedto33%(a1,3%pointincreasefrom2011)comparedto50%forfemale-headedhouseholds(a2,2%pointchangefrom2011)
Notabledropinpovertyinmale-headedhouseholdsbetween2009and2011
Povertymeasuresofhouseholdsbysexofhouseholdhead(UBPL)
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76,8% 72,6%
62,4% 64,2%
56,1%
45,5%
37,1% 41,3%
20,9%
14,4%
6,5% 5,9%
1,4% 1,9% 0,9% 1,0%
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
2006 2009 2011 2015
Percen
tage
Povertyheadcountsbypopulationgroup(UBPL)
White
In2015,nearly3outof5blackAfricanswerepoor
TheIndian/Asianpopulationgroupwastheonlygroupwheretheproportionofpoorconsistentlydecreasedbetween2006and2015
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86,4
79,2%
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0
80,7
72,676,1
69,2 64,8
57,8
9,4 8,4%
40,0
35,6
ForPeriods2006/2009/2011/2015
Anindividual’seducationalleveliscloselyrelatedtopoverty
NoEducationSomePrimary
Primary
SomeSecondary
Matric
HigherEducation
79,2%ofindividualswithnoformaleducationwerepoorcomparedtoonly8,4%ofindividualswhohadapost-matricqualificationin2015
Percentage
Individualpovertybylevelofeducation(UBPL)
Dataappliestopersonsage18+
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InequalityPersists
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0,720,69 0,69
0,68
0,50
0,55
0,60
0,65
0,70
0,75
0,80
2006 2009 2011 2015
Ginico
efficient
Ginicoefficients(income)sawaveryminimaldeclineoverthe10yearperiod
Ginibasedonincomepercapita(2006,2009,2011&2015)
TheGinicoefficientisbasedonincomepercapitaincludingsalaries,wagesandgrants
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0,720,70 0,69 0,68
0,640,66
0,65 0,65
0,600,57 0,59 0,58
0,560,53
0,50
0,560,56
0,470,45
0,51
0,30
0,35
0,40
0,45
0,50
0,55
0,60
0,65
0,70
0,75
0,80
2006 2009 2011 2015
GiniCoe
fficien
t
ThepopulationgroupwiththehighestlevelofinequalityareblackAfricans
BlackAfricanshadthehighestlevelofincomeinequality
BothwhitesandIndian/AsianssawtheirGinicoefficientsincrease,withthewhitepopulationrisingto0,51andIndian/Asiansreturningtotheir2006levelof0,56
GiniCoefficient(Incomepercapita)bypopulationgroup(2006,2009,2011&2015)
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350 937
195 336
124 445
67 828
White-headed households (R350 937) spent five times more than black African-headed households (R67 828) and three
times more than the national average
BlackAfrican
Coloured
Indian
White444 446
271 621
172 765
92 983
0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000
AverageExpenditure AverageIncome
Indians/Asian headed households (R195 336) spent almost three times more than black headed households
Averageannualhouseholdconsumptionexpenditureandincomebypopulationgroupofhouseholdhead
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30,0%
22,0%
12,5% 9,8%
25,7%
10,5%
34,0%
16,8% 15,4%
23,3%
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
40,0
Food Housing Transport Miscellaneous Other
Poor Non-Poor
Poorhouseholdsspentthelargestproportion(30,0%)oftheirtotalexpenditureonfoodcomparedtojust10,5%innon-poorhouseholds. Thebiggestproportionofhousehold
expenditurefornon-poorhouseholdswenttowardshousingandutilities(34,0%)
Averageannualhouseholdconsumptionexpenditureforpoorandnon-poorhouseholds,2015
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Dietaryintakeofthenon-poorandpoor
PoorHouseholds Non-PoorHouseholds
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Reducing the proportion of persons living belowthe lower-bound poverty line
Reduceincomeinequality
Increasetheshareofincomegoingtothebottom40percentofhouseholds
Reducepoverty-inducedhunger
Seekstotacklepovertyandinequality
RevisitingtheNDP
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39,0 40
00
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033
40,0
Reducingtheproportionofpersonslivingbelowthelower-boundpovertylinefrom39percent(in2009)tozeroby2030
Reducepoverty-inducedhungerto0%by2030
21,425,2
00
5
10
15
20
25
30
2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033
Baseline(2009) MostRecentFigure(2015)
Target
Baseline(2011)
MostRecentFigure(2015)
Target
%
%
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0,7
0,68
0,6
0,58
0,6
0,62
0,64
0,66
0,68
0,7
0,72
2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033
Reduceincomeinequalityfrom0,7in2010to0,6by2030
Baseline(2010)
MostRecentFigure(2015)
Target
6
8,3
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033
Theshareofincomegoingtothebottom40percentofhouseholdsshouldrisefrom6percentto10percent
Baseline(2010)MostRecentFigure(2015)
Target
%
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Householdsize:2,4
Householdincome:R199267
Ownershipofdwelling:60,1%
Pipedwaterinside/onsite:86,7%
Electricity:91,4%
Householdsize:4,6
Householdincome:R46624
Ownershipofdwelling:78,2%
Pipedwaterinside/onsite:59%
Electricity:80,5%
PoorHouseholds Non-poorHouseholds
HouseholdExpenditureR31669
Flushtoilet:39,3% Flushtoilet: 80,8%
Non-poorhouseholdshadbetteraccesstoservicescomparedtopoorhouseholds
ProfileofPoorandNon-poorhouseholds
HouseholdExpenditureR151097
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