Post Enumeration Survey of Indonesia Population Census

2010

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Directorate for Development of Census and Survey

MethodologyMay 10, 2010

Non sampling error always exists in data collection.

This error is bias source which is caused by field enumerator and respondent responses.

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Field staff error:• coverage error : under coverage or over

coverage, and• content error

While, respondent error: response error which is part of content error.

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The Indonesia Badan Pusat Statistik (Statistics Indonesia, BPS) is conducting the 2010 Population Census in May of 2010. In order to evaluate the quality of the 2010 Census, the BPS will conduct a Post Enumeration Survey (PES) in a sample of census enumeration blocks (CBs) about one month following the census enumeration.

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The objective of the PES will be to evaluate both the census coverage as well as the content errors in the census data

Census coverage indicators (i.e., omission rate, net coverage error rate)• Reliable estimates for 33 provinces• Based on dual system estimation

Measure census content errors• Cross-tabulate census and PES responses

for each variable, using records for matched persons

• Indices of inconsistency – measure of response error

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PES SP20001. Was not designed to

estimate the population

2. Sample size:• 4 provinces ( 11

regencies/cities)• 40 census blocks

3. Without field reconciliation

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PES SP20101. Designed to estimate

the population (Province level)

2. Sample size:• 33 provinces• 1200 census blocks

3. With field reconciliation

PES SP2010 will be conducted in:33 provinces1.200 census blocks (CBs)

Coverage

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Activity Schedule

1. Master Nat’l Instructors Workshop Week III April 2010

2. Document Delivery May 20103. Instructors Training Week I June 20104. Field Enumerator Training Week II June 20105. HH & Population Enumeration Week III-IV June 20106. Matching Coordinator & Data Processing Briefing Week III-IV June 20107. Desk-match) HH & population Week I July 20108. Reconciliation visit Week II July 20109. Final Matching Week III July 201010. Data Processing in BPS Province July-September 201011. Doc & data delivery to BPS HQ August-September 201012. Statistical Counting September 201013. Data Analysis & report writing September 201014. Publication printing October 2010

Activity Time Table

Sample allocation:Proportional to square root of population Min 24 CBs; Max 80 CBs per province

Sample Allocation

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One Stage PPS, size: estimated number of household from census mapping ( KK ), Urban/Rural as implicit stratification variable

Exception for Provinces of Maluku, Maluku Utara, Papua & Papua Barat:

Two stage sampling:1. Select 6 districts2. Select 4 CBs per district

Selection of CBs SampleSelection of CBs Sample

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1. Field enumerator training (3 effective days)- Participants are CP2010 best enumerators

2. Matcher training (2effective days)- Matcher from BPS Province

3. Data entry training (3 effective days)- Persons form BPS Province

Training in BPS ProvinceTraining in BPS Province

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Head of Statistics Indonesia

Deputy of MIS

Head of BPS Province

Head of IPDS BPS Prov

Head of BPS Reg/City

Head of IPDS BPS Reg/City

Team Coordinator

Field Enumerator

Coord of Sub Dist Statistics

Headquarter• General Person In Charge (PIC) is head of

BPS HQ, helped by Deputy of MIS. • Technical PIC is Director for Development of

Census & Survey Methodology. Province

• General PIC is head of BPS Province.• Technical PIC is Head of IPDS BPS Province

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District• General PIC is head of BPS Reg/City• Technical PIC is Head of IPDS BPS Reg/City

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Head of IPDS BPS Reg/City

Team Coordinator

Enumerator1 Enumerator2

Head of Social Statistics BPS Reg/

City

Coord of Sub Dist Statistics

Diagram 2. Field Organization of PES

PC2010

Field• A team consists of 1team coordinator & 2

enumerators. • Team Coord is Kepala Seksi Or Coord of

SubDist Statistics (KSK) or staff of BPS Reg/City with best capabilities,

• Enumerator is statistical partner of staff BPS Reg/City appointed.

• Team coord coordinated with KSK for filed enumeration and responsible to Kasie IPDS.

• Since PES is part of Population Census, then Kasie IPDS should coordinate with Kasie Statistik Sosial.

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Documents for training & field enumeration will be delivered by BPS HQ to BPS Province c.q. Kabid IPDS.

BPS Province will distribute these documents needed by enumerators to BPS Reg/City c.q. Kasi IPDS.

BPS Reg/City will distribute documents to team coord, next team cooed will distribute it to enumerators as much as needed for field enumeration.

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BPS Reg/City have to keep eye on documents of enumeration whether it have been given to team coord on time, whether team coord have given the cleaned document to BPS Reg/City.

After document checking in BPS Reg/City is done, document must be delivered to BPS Province c.q. Kabid IPDS immediately.

All PES documents will be kept in BPS Province until final report of Population Census 2010 is released.

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1 month following census enumerationAll census documents already in BPS Province to maintain independencyMax 6 weeks after census:1. Reducing recall error2. Reducing level of population

movement

PES Enumeration

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Enumeration by team:1. One team consists of 1 team

coordinator and two enumerators2. Workload: 2-4 CBs per team

PES Enumeration (2)

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PES enumerator should be independent of the census operationPES enumerator assigned to different CBs from his/her census working areas.PES questionnaires are designed to obtain information on current residents of (de jure) and persons who moved out after census (out-movers).

PES Enumeration (3)

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Important to account for moving status of population between census and PESCurrent PES residents:1. Non-movers2. Persons who are recorded after census

a) In-moverb) Out-of-scope (born after census)

Out-movers (moved or died after census)

Moving Status of Enumerated Persons

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Procedure C1 described in reference manuals

Match non-movers and out-movers• Easier to find in same sample CB

Count in-movers• More accurate coverage

Estimate matched movers• Apply match rate of out-movers to number

of in-movers

Will be used one for all:1. HH and population enumeration2. Matching of hh/population3. Field reconciliationShading Area will be taken from census questionnaire (Form SP2010-C1)Consists of three main blocks (of total 9 blocks):1. Block IV Non-mover and in-mover2. Block V Persons moved/died after

census3. Block VI Persons enumerated in census

not in PES

Questionnaire SP2010 PES1

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24

25

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For household enumerated in census not in PES

Questionnaire SP2010 PES2

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SP2010 PES1

SP2010-C1

HH enumerated in

PES & Cens

us

HH ENUMERATED IN CENS

US NOT IN

PES

HH Status in

SP200 PES1 = Non-match

FILLSP2010 PES2

FINISH

PROBABLY

MATCH?

PERSONS INITIAL

MATCHING

FIELD RECONCILI

ATION

PERSON FINAL

MATCHING

No

Yes

Yes

Yes

No

No

Two-way matching between all households and persons (non-movers and out-movers) enumerated in census and PES for sample CBs.

HH and persons enumerated in PES coded as not matched are treated as census omissions in PES estimation procedures.

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Matching documents PES and census will be conducted in BPS PROVINCE.a. 1 matcher will match 3 CBsb. Matcher is staff of BPS Province

Quality control of matching operation will be better.

Documents need to be sent back to BPS Reg/City for reconciliation visit

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First level of matching – households Availability of census stickers for

most households will make matching more effective and faster

First step – match households based on census sticker information

Next – remaining households matched based on names of heads of household•Possible to use PES listing sheets to help

with matching

After first part of household matching, remaining households matched based on names of individual persons

Households considered matched if at least one person matched

Multiple households can be matched• Matched 1 to 2 or more• Matched 2 or more to 1

7 (seven) possibilities found in initial matching of household:

1. Matched 1 to 12. Matched 1 to 2 or more3. Matched 2 or more to 14. Non-match5. In-mover6. Out-of-scope7. Possible match

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Only for hh that is matched Matching of persons only done for:

• Non-movers• Out-movers (moved or died after census)

Matching establish numbers of rules, allow some flexibility in range of ages especially for older persons.

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Generally, person will be match in matched hh. Non-movers and out-movers will be matched with person in census.

Non-movers are persons who are listed in Block IV Form SP2010 PES1, out-movers are persons who are listed in Block V Form SP2010 PES1.

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Possible match name is consistent and some other characteristics match, but not all• When matcher consider there is a chance

the PES and census persons match. Matching coordinator may convert

some possible matches to final matches before reconciliation

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In assinging person match status, matcher has match 4 variables of PES & census:

1. name of person, 2. sex,3. relationship to head of hh, and,4. age.

Matcher has to establish rules in assigning person initial match status.

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No. Criteria Conditional Initial Match Status

I. 4 variables are the same Match

II.3 variables are the same, one variable is different:

a. Sex Possible match

b. Name within tolerance Match

Out of tolerance Possible match

c. Age within tolerance Match

Out of tolerance Possible match

d. Relationship to head of

household

Not contradictory Match

Contradictory Possible match

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No.Criteria Conditional Initial Match Status

III. 2 variables are the same: Name OUGHT TO

BE THE SAME

a. Name & sex Possible match

b. Name & Relationship to

the head of household

Possible match

c. Name & Age Possible match

d. Others Non Match

IV. 1 variable is the same:

a. Name Possible match

b. Others Non Match

V. None of 4 variables is the

same

Non match

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Tabel 4.3 Tolerance for Variable: Name, Relationship to head of hh, and Age

No. Variable Tolerance

1 Name Minor spelling difference that does not change the sound. Sound is phonetically the same but the spelling differs.

Shortening of names and use of initial and nicknames in common use will be considered agreements, for example, Tony for Antonio, Fata for Fatimah, Ed for Eduardo, or Ben for Benikana.

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No. Variable Tolerance

2 Relationship to head of hh Not contradictory (see Table 4.4).

For example PES may show the relationship

as head, spouse head, daughter, and mother;

census may show the mother as head, PES

head as son and all the other household

members as other relatives. In this example,

Census and PES entries are not contradictory.

3 Age: Tolerance

Under 15 years + 2 tahun

15 – 29 years + 4 tahun

30 – 44 years + 7 tahun

45 – 64 years + 10 tahun

65 years or older + 15 tahun

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Tabel 4.4 Changes of Relationship to Head of HH Between PES & Census

RELATIONSHIP TO HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD

PES

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0

Head of HH

Spouse

Child

Adopted/

Step child

Son/daughter-in-law

Grandchild

Parents/

Parent-in-law

Others family

Housemaid

Others

Census

1 Head of HH

2 Spouse

3 Child

4 Adopted/Step child

5 Son/daughter-in-law 6 Grandchild

7Parents/Parent-in-

law

8 Others family

9 Housemaid

0 Others Notes: : not contradictory : Contradictory

Reconciliation visit is critical part of PES methodology

Necessary to follow up all households and persons enumerated in the census but not in the PES• Determine whether each household and person

was correctly enumerated in the census• Erroneously enumerated persons subtracted

from census population in the estimation procedures

Follow up cases of possible matches to determine final match status

The objectives of reconciliation visit is not to make any correction to the result of census or PES enumeration (because this would break the assumption of independency), but only to verify information which have been gathered.

To maintain independency between PES and census, enumerator is not allowed to add person or hh, or to change demographic characteristics of person/hh, either in census or in PES questionnaire.

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After reconciliation visit, there are no more cases of ”possible match”. All outcomes will be mutually exclusive.

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PESCensus

Enumerated Omitted Total

Enumerated M N12 NP

Omitted N21 N22 N2.

Total NC N.2 NT

N

N

N

N =MatchedPT

P

T

C)(

R

N =

N

MN =

MNN = N

M

C

P

CPCT

RM = proportion of matched person

from PES data

Asumption: PES and Census are independent.

Necessary to attach weights to the PES data for estimates to be representative

Weights based on inverse of probability of selection

Weights will vary by stratum and CB Weights may be adjusted based on

final census results

The total census population correctly enumerated ( ) is estimated by subtracting an estimate of the census erroneously enumerated population from the PES data (based on the E-sample), , from the official census figure for the total population.

Census Population Correctly Census Population Correctly EnumeratedEnumerated

CN

CE

CCC ENN ˆ'ˆ = where is the official census total

populationCN '

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The PES results will be used to evaluate the census coverage errors, but they will probably will not be used to adjust the official results from the census.

Dual System Estimator of the Total Dual System Estimator of the Total PopulationPopulation

M

CCT

R

ENN

ˆ

ˆ'ˆ

= estimation of total population

TN

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Net Census Undercount RateNet Census Undercount Rate

T

CTU

N

NNR

ˆ'ˆ

ˆ

= estimation of total population

= Net Census Undercount Rate

TN

UR

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PES estimate of the total population [ ] =• Weighted estimate of non-movers plus

in-movers enumerated by the PES.

PES Estimate of the Total PopulationPES Estimate of the Total Population

movers-out total

moversout matchedmovers-inmoversnonmatchedM

PN

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The matched population is estimated as

M

1. Preliminary estimate of

Once the official census population ( ) is available, the estimate of could then be ratio-adjusted as:

2. The final estimate will the be used to calculate the final net census undercount rate ( ), using the formula specified previously.

The Dual System EstimatesThe Dual System Estimates

M

CCT R

ENN ˆ

ˆ'ˆ'ˆ

= weighted estimate of matched population + census correctly enumerated population (missed by PES) + census erroneously enumerated population = PES survey estimate of the total population enumerated in census

CN 'ˆ

TNC

CTT N

NNN

'ˆ'

'ˆˆ

CN '

UR

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TN 'ˆ

TN 'ˆ

Based on the data for matched persons:• Non-movers, and• Out-movers

Census Content Error Census Content Error EvaluationEvaluation

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Evaluating Censuses of Population and Housing, U.S. Census Bureau, 1985

Design and Implementation of a Post-Enumeration Survey: Developing Country Example, U.S. Census Bureau, August 1993

POPSTAN (A Case Study for the 1980 Censuses of Population and Housing), Parts A, B and D, U.S. Census Bureau, 1979

THE END

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