portugals case study

8/7/2019 Portugals Case Study

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Portugal as a case-study

An ageing population dealing w ith diversity

M. Joo Valente Rosa

Professor of Demography, PhD

[email protected]

Joana Lopes Martins

PhD Candidate

[email protected]

Effects of Migration on Population Structures in EuropeVienna Institute of Demography

1-2 December 2008


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Main Topics

Portugal

1. Demography in brief: the ageing process

2. Migration happenings

3. Immigrants: from diversity to contrasts

4. Migration issue: more than a global or a singlequestion


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1. Population- an overview

16,45,765 +

67,760,515-64

16,033,80-14

200119002007

65+: 17,4%

8th oldest country in the world

4th oldest country in EU27

Sources: INE, PRB and EUROSTAT

How did we get there ?

What triggered this process ?

%

Portugal

Data source:Census 1900 and 2001, National Statistics Institute (INE)


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Ireland

Portugal

Netherlands

Spain

Finland, United Kingdom,Austria, France

Belgium

Denmark

Germany, Italy

Luxembourg, Greece

Sweden

3,8

3,2

3,1

2,9

2,7

2,6

2,5

2,4

2,32,2

CountryTFR

1960

France

Ireland

Sweden

Finland, United Kingdom

DenmarkNetherlands

Luxembourg

Austria

Greece

Spain

Portugal

Italy, Germany

2,0

1,90

1,85

1,84

1,831,70

1,65

1,40

1,39

1,38

1,35

1,32

CountryTFR

Sources: Demographic Statistics, EUROSTAT.

2006


Fertility declined in the last 4 decades but itwas not the phenomenon setting offageing


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Age groups percentage on total population, Portugal 1900-2007

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1900 1911 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1981 1991 2001 2007

0-14 15-64 65+

Data Sources: Census 1900-2001 and Demographic Statistics 2007, INE


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9500

9600

9700

9800

9900

10000

10100

10200

10300

10400

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Population

(m

illions)

1982: TFR below 2,1

1981-85: Fertil ity andemigration decline

1986-91: fertil ity decline andincrease in emigration flows

1993: Immigration outnumbers emigration

1999-01: increase in

immigration flows

Source: Adapted from M. J. Carrrilho (2002), A situao demogrfica recente em Portugal in Revista de Estudos demogrficos, INE.



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2. Migration Happenings:NATURAL and MIGRATORY CHANGES

2007- PORTUGAL

Total population: 10 608 335

Foreigners: 435 736 (4%)

Natural change: -1 020

Migratory change: 19 500-20000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Natural Change Migratory Change

Data Sources: Estimation of Resident Population 2007, INE; Number of Foreigners - Foreigners and BordersOffice (SEF) statistics (foreign population provisional data for 2006); Demographic Statistics 2006, INE.


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1. Portugal - a new country of destination ???

(with Italy, Ireland, Norway and Spain IOM 2005)

During the 1960s Portugal was mostly a sending country During the 1990s immigration stocks more than doubled

nevertheless Portugal has a long colonial history The 1st mass wave of migration was in mid 1970s (~1million

arrivals) Those flows evolved from a politically to an economic

motivation Many of these individuals have naturalized and we lost thetrack of them in statistics. Still, it would be worth toacknowledge their demographic behaviors i.e. there is theneed for different sorts of data.

2. Migration Happenings


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2. Three basic ideas

1. The first wave of migration was very diverse (citizenshipstatus, race, socio-economic status). E.g. there is nodirect link between by then migration from colonies andforeign status.

2. The 1990s flows brought additional complexity: flowsfrom Africa, EU, eastern Europe, Asia, Latin America -populations with varying characteristics.

3. Immigrants have a fairly low impact in reversing oraggravating national demographic trends.

2. Migration Happenings


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Two major regional origins (Portugal, 2006):

Europe: 38,2% (160 658)

EU: 49,8%Others: 50,2%

Africa: 35,7% (150 071)

PSAC: 92,9%

Others: 7,1%

74% of

migrants

stock

Brazil: 16,2%

China: 2,4%

Others: 7,5%

Post-colonial migrants? A question of numbers or a question

of social visibility?

Data Source: SEF statistics

3. Immigrants from variety to contrasts

Note: PSAC (Portuguese Speaking African countries)


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3. Immigrants from variety to contrasts

Portugal, 2006 - 18 regions (districts):

2 have less than a 1% share ofimmigrants

6 have less than 2%

7 have 2-3%

1 around 5,3% (Setubal)

1 have 8,5% share (Lisbon)

1 have 14,6% share (Faro)

Local approaches to

immigration and

integration must be a

priority!

Data Source: SEF statistics and Estimation ofResident Population 2007, INE

40.9 - 101.2101.2 - 150.3150.3 - 207207- 321.2321.2 - 519.5

0 50 100 Km

CONTINENTE(Concelhos)

ndice de Envelhecimento (%)2001

Fonte: INE

Legenda:

Data source: Census 2001, INE

Migrantssettle inregionswith lower

levels ofageing

Number of elders by numberof youngsters (% ), 2001


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3. Points in case:the bias of aggregated figures

Examples:

National perspectives become ever more limited as foreignerstend to concentrate in particular districts. Smaller units of

analysis may reveal higher contributions for socio-

demographic structures;

Foreigners have different age structures according toregional/national origin;

Levels of fertility vary greatly by mothers origin and there

are also some evidences showing a tendency to lower the gap

with national levels as time of permanence increases.

Education levels vary by nationality but also w ithin

nationalities


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16,0

14,7

10,1

Brazil

1,755,314,47,5Setubal

2,247,59,915,0Lisbon

1,513,929,136,8Faro

ChinaPSACOthers

Europe

EU

3 regions, 3 different issues?

(2006)

3.1. Contrasts: Regional issues

Reinforcing ageing?

Labor migrations?

Data Source: SEF statistics


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3.2. Contrasts: Age structures

Age structures by selected citizenships (Portugal, 2006)

0 20 40 60 80 100

Brazil

Cape Verde

China

Uckrain

United Kingdom

Portugal

Percent

0-14 15-64 65+

Data Sources: Foreigners SEF statistics; National population Demographic Statistics 2007,INE.

Retirementmigration


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492623Portugal

27,24,023,3Africa

18,50,717,8Others Europe

32,114,517,6EU

26,16,020,1Total Foreigners

TDRODRYDR

Dependency ratios, Portugal (2006)

Data Sources: Foreigners SEF statistics ; Nationals - Demographic Statistics 2007, INE.

Foreign population has lower rates of demographic dependency

But

Aggregated numbers are misleading: EU populations have an high ODR

3.2. Contrasts: Age structures


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1,6

1,7

2,0

2,1

2,4

2,9

3,0

4,6

5,1

11,1

Mozambique

Guinea Bissau

France

Cape Verde

Russia

S. Tome and Principe

Angola

Brazil

Moldova

Romania

1,2

1,1

0,8

United Kingdom

Netherlands

Germany

TFR - Portugal 1,4

TFR Portuguese women 1,2

3.3. Fertility contrasts - 2006

-

+

Sources: Births Demographic Statistics, INE; Women 15-49 SEF statistics

Note about sources: while births concern all reported births by age and citizenship of the mother in 2006,fertile population is based only on women with residence permits. This last fact leads to a particularunderestimation of certain stocks (e.g. Romania). Once all population is considered TFR may fall at least tohalf. Nevertheless, fertility patterns will remain high.

Contribution tohigher nationalTFR or pocketsof exclusion?


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28,6

31,8

41,5

48,6

57,3

58,5

62,1

63,1

64,3

69,274,9

Angola

Mozambique

France

Brazil

Romania

Ukraine

Spain

Moldova

Germany

RussiaUnited Kingdom

10,9

23,0

24,7

Cape Verde

S. Tome and

PrincipeGuinea Bissau

Rate of foreigners(18-64) w ith at least a secondary level of education(PORTUGAL, 2001)

National average: 26,9%

3.4. Education contrasts

-

+

Source: Census 2001, INE in Valente Rosa 2005.

26,9%

Worth to note:

Low level of secondary education in Portugal;

Very diverse levels among foreigners according to nationality;

Some longer settled communities have lower levels of education;

Higher levels of education are not guaranteed across generations


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Fig. 1- % de indivduos (HM), por grandes G.I., com secundrio completo ou

mais, por nacionalidades (Portugal, 2001)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Aleman

ha

Espan

ha

Fran

a

ReinoUnido

Bulg

ria

Mold

via

Romnia

Rssia

Ucrnia

Angola

CaboVerde

Guin-

Biss

au

Moambiq

ue

S.Tome

Prncipe

Bra

sil

Mdia

Nacional

%25-64

18-24

School trajectories still underway or educational dow ngrade???


Share of population w ith at least a secondary level of education, by broadage groups and citizenship (Portugal, 2001)

Source: Census 2001, INE in Valente Rosa 2005.


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Higher qualifications do not guarantee better jobs (Dual labor market theory)

Rate of occupation as medium-low qualified labor (Portugal,2001)

EU 25%

Brazil 42%

Cape Verde 74,2%

Ukraine 84% (low educational compensation of migration)

Sources: Valente Rosa 2005 and Census 2001, INE in ACIME 2005.


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4. Final thoughts

In Portugal aggregated and average figures somehow

underestimate the impact of migration;

National perspectives might leave their way to regionaland decentralized managements of integration (both

geographic and institutional decentralization);

Accurate public policies depend on the identification ofdiversity among and within nationalities.

Dealing w ith diversity obliges a changing perspective:

from macro to mezzo and/ or micro


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Portugal as a case-study

An ageing population dealing w ith diversity

M. Joo Valente Rosa

Professor of Demography, PhD

[email protected]

Joana Lopes Martins

PhD Candidate

[email protected]

Effects of Migration on Population Structures in EuropeVienna Institute of Demography

1-2 December 2008

portugals case study

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