portraying rural canada ray d. bollman statistics canada sylvie michaud statistics canada

1Portraying Rural Canada

Portraying Rural Canada

Ray D. BollmanStatistics Canada

Sylvie MichaudStatistics Canada

Presentation to theSenate Standing Committee on Agriculture and Forestry

October 5, 2006

http://www.statcan.ca/start.html


Outline

• Definitions and measures of “rural”• Definitions and measures of “poverty”• Incomes• Income inequality• Low income• Communities and low-income

Persistency Characteristics

• Farmers

Rural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality

Low-incomeCommunities

Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français



Definitions and measures of “rural”Rural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality

Low incomeCommunities

Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français



What is “rural”?• For this presentation, we have chosen the “Rural and

Small Town” definition• “Rural and Small Town” refers to the population outside

the commuting zone of centres with a population of 10,000 or more

A CMA (Census Metropolitan Area) has an urban core population of 100,000 or more and includes neighbouring towns and municipalities where 50 percent of more the workforce commutes to the CMA

A CA (Census Agglomeration) has an urban core population of 10,000 to 99,999 and includes neighbouring towns and municipalities where 50 percent of more the workforce commutes to the CMA

• Thus, the “Rural and Small Town” population lives in a labour market outside of towns of 10,000 or more

Rural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français



Population trends by type of labour market, Canada

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001

Population (millions)

Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1966 to 2001. Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) have 100,000 or more inhabitants in the urban core and Census Agglomerations (CAs) have 10,000 to 99,999 in the urban core. Both CMAs and CAs include surrounding towns and municipalities where 50 percent or more of the workforce commutes to the urban core. Rural and small town (RST) refers to the population outside Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) and outside Census Agglomerations (CAs).

Census Agglomerations (CAs)

Rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas

Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs)

What is “rural”?Rural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français



Definitions and measures of povertyRural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français



Measures of poverty in the world

• No international definition of poverty Depends on the country Depends on the theoretical framework (basic

needs, capability) Absolute or relative measure? Based on income or consumption?

Rural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français



• Millennium Development goals Extreme poverty $1/day Poverty $2/day

• US: Orshansky poverty thresholds Based on the income after-tax needed to buy

a basket of food (multiplied by 3) the price of the basket is indexed through

inflation

Rural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français




• Europe: Laeken indicators Relative low income measure (60% of

adjusted income) Other indicators such as persistence of low-

income, long term unemployment

• UK: 3 indicators Absolute, relative income and measure of

deprivation

Rural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français




Low income measures in CanadaRural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français



• Do not have an official measure of poverty

• Two measures by Statistics Canada Low Income Cut-Offs (LICO) Low Income Measures (LIM)

One measure currently released by HRSDC :• Market Basket Measure (MBM) of low income

Low income measures in CanadaRural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français



• Income level at which a family may be in strained circumstances because they have to spend 20% more of their income on necessities (food, shelter, clothing)

• 35 cut-offs to represent 7 family sizes and 5 sizes of area of residence

• Calculated on income before-tax and income after-tax

Low Income Cut-Offs (LICOs)Rural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français



Low Income Measure (LIM)

• Relative measure

• Based on income before and after-tax

• Threshold based on 50% of adjusted median income

1 for the first person, 0.4 for the second person, 0.3 for each subsequent person(s)

Rural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français



• Federal/provincial/territorial working group

• Cost of a basket for a family of 4 Food, clothing, shelter (2-3 bedroom apartment),

transportation (public transit in urban and car in rural) and other

47 thresholds Uses a “disposable income” (income after-tax minus

social contributions, out-of-pocket medical expenses…)

Market Basket Measure (MBM) Rural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français



Income levels: rural and urban

Rural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français



Median incomes in rural and small town areas are about 10,000$ less than in larger urban centres

Rural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français

Median after-tax income, Families 2+ (constant 2004$s)

Note: Larger urban centres = CMAs (Census Metropolitan Areas) and CAs (Census Agglomerations) Rural and small town areas = areas outside CMAs and CAs

Source: Statistics Canada, Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics / Survey of Consumer Finances, Custom Tabulation

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Larger urban centres (LUC)

Rural and small town areas

Difference: LUC minus RST



Income inequality

Rural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français



Within rural areas, there is relatively less inequality of incomes

Rural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français

GINI index of inequality, after-tax income

0.25

0.27

0.29

0.31

0.33

0.35

0.37

0.39

0.41

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Larger urban centres Rural and small town areas





Low income: thresholds, incidence (rates) and gap

Rural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français



Rural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français

Note: (1) Rural excludes small communities classified as urban under 10,000 people. Larger urban centres = CMAs (Census Metropolitan Areas) and CAs (Census Agglomerations)Rural and small town areas = areas outside CMAs and CAs.

Source: Statistics Canada, Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics / Survey of Consumer Finances, Custom Tabulation.

After-tax income (2004)

LICO LIM

Montreal (family 4) $31,865 $28,202

Rural –Saskatchewan (1)

(family 4)$20,844 $28,202

Toronto (2 adults) $20,512 $19,741

Rural BC (2 adults) $13,418 $19,741

Thresholds vary significantly with the measure



A lower share of rural and small town individuals reside in families with incomes less than the LICO

Rural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français

After-tax LICO, percentage of population below

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004






The share of rural and small town individuals with family incomes less than the LIM has declined and converged with that of those in larger urban centres

Rural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français

After-tax LIM, percentage of population below

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004






The average income gap (LICO after-tax) is smaller in rural and small town areas

Rural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français

Average income gap, LICO after-tax (constant 2004$s)

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004






Rural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français $0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Larger urban centres Rural and small towns

Average income gap, LIM after-tax (constant 2004$s)

The average income gap (LIM after-tax) is similar in larger urban centres and rural and small town areas





Rural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français

• Median incomes are lower in rural areas

• Income inequality is lower within rural• The choice of the measure has an impact

on the levels; especially for rural LICO: rural incidence is LOWER LIM: rural incidence is slightly higher

Highlights



Communities and low income

Rural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français



Rural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français

Low income communities

• We defined a low income community as having 15 percent or more of its inhabitants living in households with income less than LICO



Persistent low income communities

Rural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français



Share of all communities Type of community Criteria

1/3 Persistent higher incidence of low income

Communities with 15 percent or more of their inhabitants in households with income less than

LICO in 4 out of 5 censuses (from 1981 to 2001)

1/3 Fluctuating Fluctuating

1/3 Persistent lower incidence of low income

Communities with less than 15 percent of their inhabitants in households with income less than

LICO in 4 out of 5 censuses (from 1981 to 2001)

Rural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français

About one third of communities have persistent HIGHER incidence of low income between 1981 and 2001 (LICO measure)



In rural non-metro-adjacent regions, 46 percent of the communities had a 'high' persistence of

individuals with incomes < LICO, 1981 to 2001

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Predominantlyurban regions

Intermediateregions

Allpredominantlyrural regions

Rural metro-adjacent regions

Rural non-metro-adjacent

regions

Rural northernregions

Percent of communities with a persistent HIGHER incidence of low incomes(over 15 percent of the population < LICO in 4 out of 5 census periods, 1981 to 2001)

Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 2001.This chart excludes individuals living in the Territories, on Indian Reserves and in communities with a population less than 250 inhabitants.

Predominantly rural regions

Rural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français

In rural non-metro-adjacent regions, 46 percent of the communities had a high persistence of individuals with income below LICO, 1981 to 2001



Persistence of the incidence of low incomeLegend

Persistent higher incidence of low income (1)

Fluctuating

Persistent lower incidence of low income (2)

Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1981 to 2001.

Low income is measured with the Low Income Cut-Offs (LICO) using income before tax. This map excludes households in the Territories,on Indian reserves and in communities with less than 250 inhabitants.(1) Communities with 15 percent or more of their inhabitants in householdswith income less than LICO in 4 out of 5 censuses (from 1981 to 2001).(2) Communities with less than 15 percent of their inhabitants in households with income less than LICO in 4 out of 5 censuses (from 1981 to 2001).

A B

A

B

Map produced by Spatial Analysis and Geomatics Applications (SAGA), Agriculture Division, Statistics Canada, 2006.




Change of the incidence of low income between 1981 and 2001

LegendDeclining (1)

Stable (2)

Growing (3)


Low income is measured with the Low Income Cut-Offs (LICO) usingincome before tax. This map excludes households in the Territories, on Indian reserves and in communities with less than 250 inhabitants.(1) Communities with a decline of incidence of low income smaller than -0.5 percentage points(2) Communities with a change of incidence of low income between -0.5 and +0.5 percentage point (3) Communities with a growth of incidence of low income greater than 0.5 percentage points

A B

A

B






Persistence and change of the incidence of low incomeLegend


A B

A

B


Persistency

Cha

nge Growth

Stable

Decline

High Fluc. Low



Attributes associated with low income

Rural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français



Stronger and more dynamic labour markets LOWER the community share of individuals living below LICO

Rural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français

Note: n.s. indicates “ not statistically significant”. Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Population, 2001.

All communities

Rural and small town

communities

Larger urban centres and communities in

their commuting zone

A HIGHER level of this attribute …

Labour market performance.. Employment growth (1991-2001) LOWER LOWER n.s.

.. Male participation rate LOWER LOWER LOWER

.. Female participation rate LOWER LOWER LOWER

.. Male unemployment rate HIGHER HIGHER n.s.

.. Female unemployment rate n.s. n.s. n.s.

Earnings.. Average earnings per household LOWER LOWER LOWER.. Percent of workforce earning less than $10 per hour

HIGHER HIGHER HIGHER

… is associated with an incidence of individuals living below LICO that is …



All communities


communities




Industrial structure.. Percent employed in agriculture n.s. n.s. n.s.

.. Percent employed in 'other' primary (i.e. fishing, forestry, mining, gas&oil)

n.s. n.s. n.s.

.. Percent employed in 'traditional' manufacturing

n.s. n.s. HIGHER

.. Percent employed in 'complex' manufacturing

LOWER LOWER n.s.

.. Percent employed in construction LOWER n.s. n.s.

.. Percent employed in distributive services

n.s. n.s. n.s.

.. Percent employed in producer services n.s. n.s. HIGHER

.. Percent employed in personal services n.s. n.s. HIGHER


Rural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français

Rural manufacturing communities tend to have a LOWER incidence of low income




All communities


communities




Demographic structure... Percent under 15 years of age LOWER LOWER n.s.

... Percent 55-69 years of age n.s. n.s. LOWER

... Percent 70 years of age and over LOWER LOWER LOWERDemographic mobility... Percent age 20-24 who moved IN within last 5 years

HIGHER HIGHER n.s.

.. Percent 55-74 years of age who moved IN within last 5 years

n.s. n.s. n.s.

... Percent 5 years and over who moved IN within previous 5 years

HIGHER HIGHER n.s.

... Percent who are born outside Canada HIGHER HIGHER n.s.


A higher share of junior and senior population LOWERS the community share of individuals living below LICO

Rural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français




More lone parent families means HIGHER share of individuals living below LICO

Rural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

FrançaisNote: n.s. indicates “ not statistically significant”. Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Population, 2001.

All communities


communities




Socio-demographics.. Percent lone parent families HIGHER HIGHER HIGHER

.. Percent Aboriginal Identity population n.s. n.s. n.s.

.. Percent born in Africa n.s. n.s. HIGHER

.. Percent born in Western Asia n.s. n.s. n.s.

.. Percent born in Southeast Asia n.s. n.s. n.s.

.. Percent born in Latin America LOWER LOWER LOWER




More education means LOWER share of individuals living below LICO

Rural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français


All communities


communities




Education.. Percent with less than Grade 9 n.s. n.s. HIGHER.. Percent with some post-secondary LOWER LOWER n.s.




Rural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français

All communities


communities




Urbanization.. Logarithm of population density (inhabitants per square kilometre)

n.s. n.s. HIGHER

.. Logarithm of population size of the community


Community history.. Community has a history of high persistence of low income


.. Community has a history of fluctuating incidence of low income




Larger communities and communities with a history of persistent disadvantage have a HIGHER share of individuals living below LICO



Farmers

Rural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français



$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

Less than$10,000

$10,000-24,999

$25,000-49,999

$50,000-99,999

$100,000-249,999

$250,000-499,999

$500,000-999,999

$1,000,000and over

Size class of gross farm revenue

Average income from all sources in 1990 (constant $2000)Average income from all sources in 2000

Source: Statistics Canada. Agriculture-Population Linkage, 1991 and 2001.

Average Canadian household income in 2000

Rural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français

Households associated with census-farms with gross revenue of 50-99 thousand had the lowest average income from all sources in 2000



Households associated with census-farms with gross revenue of $50-99 thousand were most likely to have income from all sources less than the low-

income cut-off in 2000, Canada

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Less than$10,000

$10,000-24,999

$25,000-49,999

$50,000-99,999

$100,000-249,999

$250,000-499,999

$500,000-999,999

$1,000,000and over

Size class of gross farm revenue

1990 2000

Source: Statistics Canada. Agriculture-Population Linkage, 1991 and 2001.

Percent of census-farm operator households with income from all sources less than the low income cut-off

Percent of Canadians below LICO in 2000

Rural

Poverty

Canada

Income level

Inequality


Persistency

Determinants

Farmers

Français

Households associated with census-farms with gross revenue of 50-99 thousand were most likely to have income from all sources less than LICO in 2000



Portraying Rural CanadaRay D. Bollman

Statistics Canada

Sylvie MichaudStatistics Canada

Presentation to theSenate Standing Committee on Agriculture and Forestry

October 5, 2006

Questions / Discussion



portraying rural canada ray d. bollman statistics canada sylvie michaud statistics canada

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