PORTFOLIO PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE OF COMMITTEE OF

FINANCEFINANCE

PORTFOLIO PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE OF COMMITTEE OF

FINANCEFINANCE

March 2002March 2002

INTERNATIONAL INTERNATIONAL ECONOMYECONOMY

INTERNATIONAL INTERNATIONAL ECONOMYECONOMY

International oil priceInternational oil priceInternational oil priceInternational oil price

OECD leading indicatorsOECD leading indicatorsOECD leading indicatorsOECD leading indicators

World Economic Outlook: Real GDPWorld Economic Outlook: Real GDPWorld Economic Outlook: Real GDPWorld Economic Outlook: Real GDPAnnual percentage change in real GDP

Actual Projections

2000 2001 2002

World 4.7 2.4 2.4

Advanced economies 3.9 1.1 0.8

USA 4.1 1.0 0.7

Japan 2.2 -0.4 -1.0

Euro area 3.4 1.5 1.2

United Kingdom 2.9 2.3 1.8

Developing countries 5.8 4.0 4.4

Africa 2.8 3.5 3.5

Asia 6.8 5.6 5.6

Western Hemisphere 4.1 1.0 1.7

Countries in transition 6.3 4.9 3.6

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook - December 2001

World Economic Outlook: Consumer pricesWorld Economic Outlook: Consumer pricesWorld Economic Outlook: Consumer pricesWorld Economic Outlook: Consumer pricesAnnual percentage change in consumer prices

Actual Projections

2000 2001 2002

World 4.6 4.5 3.4

Advanced economies 2.3 2.3 1.3

USA 3.4 2.9 1.6

Japan -0.8 -0.7 -1.0

Euro area 2.4 2.7 1.4

United Kingdom 2.1 2.3 2.4

Developing countries 5.9 6.0 5.3

Africa 13.5 12.8 8.3

Asia 1.9 2.8 3.0

Western Hemisphere 8.1 6.3 5.2

Countries in transition 20.1 16.0 11.0

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook - December 2001

USA: Real gross domestic productUSA: Real gross domestic productUSA: Real gross domestic productUSA: Real gross domestic product

USA: Unemployment rateUSA: Unemployment rateUSA: Unemployment rateUSA: Unemployment rate

USA: Consumer pricesUSA: Consumer pricesUSA: Consumer pricesUSA: Consumer prices

Japan: Real gross domestic productJapan: Real gross domestic productJapan: Real gross domestic productJapan: Real gross domestic product

Japan: Unemployment rateJapan: Unemployment rateJapan: Unemployment rateJapan: Unemployment rate

Japan: Consumer pricesJapan: Consumer pricesJapan: Consumer pricesJapan: Consumer prices

Euro Area: Real gross domestic productEuro Area: Real gross domestic productEuro Area: Real gross domestic productEuro Area: Real gross domestic product

Euro Area: Unemployment rateEuro Area: Unemployment rateEuro Area: Unemployment rateEuro Area: Unemployment rate

Euro Area: Consumer pricesEuro Area: Consumer pricesEuro Area: Consumer pricesEuro Area: Consumer prices

UK: Real gross domestic productUK: Real gross domestic productUK: Real gross domestic productUK: Real gross domestic product

UK: UnemploymentUK: UnemploymentUK: UnemploymentUK: Unemployment

UK: Consumer pricesUK: Consumer pricesUK: Consumer pricesUK: Consumer prices

SADC: InflationSADC: InflationSADC: InflationSADC: Inflation

Annual percentage change in consumer prices

1999 2000 2001 Dec 2001 Jan 2002

Africa 11.5 13.6 12.8** * *

Angola 329.0 268.4 168.2 116.0 121.0

Botswana 7.7 8.7 6.6 5.8 5.7

Lesotho 8.6 6.2 6.9 7.0 *

Malawi 44.7 29.6 27.5 22.1 20.2

Mauritius 6.9 4.2 5.4 5.3 6.0

Mozambique 2.1 12.7 9.1 21.9 22.8

Namibia 8.6 9.3 9.3 8.3 8.7

Seychelles 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.0 5.2

South Africa 5.2 5.3 5.7 4.6 5.0

Swaziland 5.9 7.3 7.5 10.8 11.3

Tanzania 7.9 5.9 5.2 4.9 4.7

Zambia 26.8 25.9 21.7 18.7 19.6

Zimbabwe 58.5 55.7 74.5 112.1 116.7

* Not available

** IMF Projections

Source: National central banks and IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2001)

NATIONAL ECONOMYNATIONAL ECONOMYNATIONAL ECONOMYNATIONAL ECONOMY

Real gross domestic productReal gross domestic productReal gross domestic productReal gross domestic product

Real gross domestic product by the Real gross domestic product by the secondary sectorssecondary sectors

Real gross domestic product by the Real gross domestic product by the secondary sectorssecondary sectors

Real gross domestic expenditureReal gross domestic expenditureReal gross domestic expenditureReal gross domestic expenditure

Real final consumption expenditure by Real final consumption expenditure by householdshouseholds

Real final consumption expenditure by Real final consumption expenditure by householdshouseholds

Real household disposable incomeReal household disposable incomeReal household disposable incomeReal household disposable income

Household debt as percentage of Household debt as percentage of household disposable incomehousehold disposable income

Household debt as percentage of Household debt as percentage of household disposable incomehousehold disposable income

Real final consumption expenditure by Real final consumption expenditure by general governmentgeneral government

Real final consumption expenditure by Real final consumption expenditure by general governmentgeneral government

Real gross fixed capital formationReal gross fixed capital formationReal gross fixed capital formationReal gross fixed capital formation

Change in inventoriesChange in inventoriesChange in inventoriesChange in inventories

Gross saving as percentage of gross Gross saving as percentage of gross domestic productdomestic product

Gross saving as percentage of gross Gross saving as percentage of gross domestic productdomestic product

Non-agricultural employmentNon-agricultural employmentNon-agricultural employmentNon-agricultural employment

Labour market statistics, based on the Labour market statistics, based on the labour force surveylabour force survey

Labour market statistics, based on the Labour market statistics, based on the labour force surveylabour force survey

Feb Sep Feb2000 2000 2001(000’s) (000’s) (000’s)

a Total employed 11 880 11 712 11 837Among the employed:Employed in the formal sectorSTEE survey (excluding agricultureand certain activities not covered in STEE) 4 754 4 685 4 676Employed in agriculture 2 265 1 632 1 352Employed in the formal sector inactivities not covered in STEE 1 924 2 157 2 002Employed in the informal sector 1 821 1 933 2 665Employed in domestic service 1 001 999 914

b Total unemployed (official definition) 4 333 4 082 4 240c Total economically active = a + b 16 213 15 794 16 077d Total not economically active 10 242 11 100 11 044e Total aged 15-65 years = c + d 26 454 26 894 27 121f Official unemployment rate = b * 100 / c 26,7% 25,8% 26,4%

SEE - Survey of Employment and Earnings in selected industriesSTEE - Survey of Total Employment and Earnings

Non-agricultural nominal remuneration per Non-agricultural nominal remuneration per workerworker

Non-agricultural nominal remuneration per Non-agricultural nominal remuneration per workerworker

Non-agricultural labour productivityNon-agricultural labour productivityNon-agricultural labour productivityNon-agricultural labour productivity

Non-agricultural nominal unit labour costNon-agricultural nominal unit labour costNon-agricultural nominal unit labour costNon-agricultural nominal unit labour cost

Nominal unit labour cost in manufacturingNominal unit labour cost in manufacturingNominal unit labour cost in manufacturingNominal unit labour cost in manufacturing

All-goods production priceAll-goods production priceAll-goods production priceAll-goods production price

Overall inflation and CPIXOverall inflation and CPIXOverall inflation and CPIXOverall inflation and CPIX

Balance of payments: Current accountBalance of payments: Current accountBalance of payments: Current accountBalance of payments: Current account

Balance on financial account*Balance on financial account*Balance on financial account*Balance on financial account*

Financial accountFinancial accountFinancial accountFinancial account

Gross gold and other foreign reservesGross gold and other foreign reservesGross gold and other foreign reservesGross gold and other foreign reserves

Gross gold and other foreign reservesGross gold and other foreign reservesGross gold and other foreign reservesGross gold and other foreign reserves

Imports covered by reservesImports covered by reservesImports covered by reservesImports covered by reserves

Net open position in foreign currency*Net open position in foreign currency*Net open position in foreign currency*Net open position in foreign currency*

Average net daily turnover in the South Average net daily turnover in the South African foreign exchange marketAfrican foreign exchange market

Average net daily turnover in the South Average net daily turnover in the South African foreign exchange marketAfrican foreign exchange market

Exchange rates of the randExchange rates of the randExchange rates of the randExchange rates of the rand

Real effective exchange rate of the randReal effective exchange rate of the randReal effective exchange rate of the randReal effective exchange rate of the rand

M3 money supplyM3 money supplyM3 money supplyM3 money supply

Domestic credit extensionDomestic credit extensionDomestic credit extensionDomestic credit extension

Turnover in the secondary bond marketTurnover in the secondary bond marketTurnover in the secondary bond marketTurnover in the secondary bond market

Money-market interest ratesMoney-market interest ratesMoney-market interest ratesMoney-market interest rates

Yield on long-term government bondsYield on long-term government bondsYield on long-term government bondsYield on long-term government bonds

Yield curveYield curveYield curveYield curve

Turnover in the secondary share marketTurnover in the secondary share marketTurnover in the secondary share marketTurnover in the secondary share market

Share prices - all classesShare prices - all classesShare prices - all classesShare prices - all classes

Real-estate marketReal-estate marketReal-estate marketReal-estate market

Revenue of national governmentRevenue of national governmentRevenue of national governmentRevenue of national government

Expenditure by national governmentExpenditure by national governmentExpenditure by national governmentExpenditure by national government

Deficit of national governmentDeficit of national governmentDeficit of national governmentDeficit of national government

Non-financial public-sector borrowing Non-financial public-sector borrowing requirementrequirement

Non-financial public-sector borrowing Non-financial public-sector borrowing requirementrequirement