porque nosso time parou de estimar
TRANSCRIPT
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Porque nosso time parou de estimar
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São Paulo / Recife / Porto Alegre / Belo Horizonte
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Negócio Sustentável
São Paulo / Recife / Porto Alegre / Belo Horizonte
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Negócio Sustentável
Excelência de software
São Paulo / Recife / Porto Alegre / Belo Horizonte
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Negócio Sustentável
Excelência de software
Justiça Social e Econômica
São Paulo / Recife / Porto Alegre / Belo Horizonte
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Martin Fowler
ThreePillars [1]
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http://blog.ninlabs.com/2013/01/programmer-interrupted/
Se eu pudesse, eu nunca usaria estimativas
Por quê?
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http://blog.ninlabs.com/2013/01/programmer-interrupted/
Se eu pudesse, eu nunca usaria estimativas
Porque existem várias "armadilhas psicológicas"
Cap. 3, Major Issues in Software Engineering - Software Estimation
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http://blog.ninlabs.com/2013/01/programmer-interrupted/
Velocity is Killing Agility! [2]
Jim Highsmith
Se eu pudesse, eu nunca usaria estimativas
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http://blog.ninlabs.com/2013/01/programmer-interrupted/
Woody Zuill
A thing I can estimate [3]
I can estimate how long it will take me to drive to work.
* There are almost no unknowns
* It’s essentially the same thing every day
Se eu pudesse, eu nunca usaria estimativas
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http://blog.ninlabs.com/2013/01/programmer-interrupted/
How Similar Is This To Computer Programming?
* Eu conheço praticamente tudo a respeito?
* É essencialmente a mesma coisa todo dia?
Se eu pudesse, eu nunca usaria estimativas
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http://blog.ninlabs.com/2013/01/programmer-interrupted/
Mas eu preciso de estimativas!
Por quê?
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http://blog.ninlabs.com/2013/01/programmer-interrupted/
Requisitos TestesArquitetura Codificação
Mas eu preciso de estimativas!
2007
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http://blog.ninlabs.com/2013/01/programmer-interrupted/
Requisitos
Testes
Arquitetura
Codificação
Mas eu preciso de estimativas!
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http://blog.ninlabs.com/2013/01/programmer-interrupted/
Requisitos
Testes12 meses
Arquitetura
Codificação
Estimativa?
Mas eu preciso de estimativas!
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http://blog.ninlabs.com/2013/01/programmer-interrupted/
Quando vamos terminar esse conjunto de funcionalidades?
Mas eu preciso de estimativas!
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http://blog.ninlabs.com/2013/01/programmer-interrupted/
Martin Fowler
PurposeOfEstimation [4]
Estimation is valuable when it helps you make a significant decision
Mas eu preciso de estimativas!
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http://blog.ninlabs.com/2013/01/programmer-interrupted/
Só conseguiremos falar sobre estimativas se entendermos as motivações de quem as está
solicitando #NoEstimates
Mas eu preciso de estimativas!
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http://blog.ninlabs.com/2013/01/programmer-interrupted/
O paradoxo das estimativas
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http://blog.ninlabs.com/2013/01/programmer-interrupted/
Requisitos
Testes12 meses
Arquitetura
Codificação
Estimativa?
O paradoxo das estimativas
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http://blog.ninlabs.com/2013/01/programmer-interrupted/
Requisitos
12 mesesEstimativa?
O paradoxo das estimativas
* Eu conheço praticamente tudo a respeito?
* É essencialmente a mesma coisa todo dia?
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http://blog.ninlabs.com/2013/01/programmer-interrupted/
Se (eu disse SE) eu não souber estimar…
… o mais honesto é dizer: não sei :)
+ sobre esse assunto, veja [5]
O paradoxo das estimativas
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http://blog.ninlabs.com/2013/01/programmer-interrupted/
Ashley Johnson
Estimation and Trust [6]
O paradoxo das estimativas
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http://blog.ninlabs.com/2013/01/programmer-interrupted/
O paradoxo das estimativas
Se eu pudesse, eu nunca usaria
estimativas!
Mas para tomar decisões eu preciso
de estimativas!
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http://blog.ninlabs.com/2013/01/programmer-interrupted/
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Testes unitários
Teste de integração
Deploy QA
Deploy produção
Smoke test
Testes unitários
Teste de integração
DeployQA
Deploy produção
Smoke test
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DevOps (Provisionamento, LXC, Docker, Segurança)
Features (UI)
Suporte (na minha máquina funciona)
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* Eu conheço praticamente tudo a respeito?
* É essencialmente a mesma coisa todo dia?
Se eu não souber estimar… eu digo que não sei
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Entrega Contínua Confiança
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Entrega Contínua
+ sobre esse assunto, veja [7]
3 meses
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Entrega Contínua
+ sobre esse assunto, veja [7]
3 meses
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http://blog.ninlabs.com/2013/01/programmer-interrupted/
Tem cenários bem diferentes que esse!
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http://blog.ninlabs.com/2013/01/programmer-interrupted/
Sistema para workflow de documentos
Passo 1 Passo 2 Passo 3 Passo 20…
Desenvolvimento: Story point:
6 meses entre 5 e 8 (por cada passo)
Passo 2b Passo 3b …
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http://blog.ninlabs.com/2013/01/programmer-interrupted/
Sistema para workflow de documentos
Desenvolvimento: Story point:
6 meses entre 5 e 8 (por cada passo)
* Eu conheço praticamente tudo a respeito?
* É essencialmente a mesma coisa todo dia?
![Page 37: Porque nosso time parou de estimar](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022032623/55d046a7bb61eb1f4b8b4669/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
http://blog.ninlabs.com/2013/01/programmer-interrupted/
Sistema para workflow de documentos
Ah, férias…
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http://blog.ninlabs.com/2013/01/programmer-interrupted/
Sistema para workflow de documentos
Passo 1 Passo 2 Passo 3 Passo 20…
Achamos um atalho!
Passo 2b
ES
T
I MAT
I AV
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http://blog.ninlabs.com/2013/01/programmer-interrupted/
Sistema para workflow de documentos
Entrega Contínua Confiança
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http://blog.ninlabs.com/2013/01/programmer-interrupted/
Oxe, então eu devo parar de estimar!?
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http://blog.ninlabs.com/2013/01/programmer-interrupted/
Oxe, então eu devo parar de estimar!?
Entregas melhores
ConfiançaParar de estimar
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http://blog.ninlabs.com/2013/01/programmer-interrupted/
Entregas menores/melhores
Confiança Conversar sobre parar de estimar
Oxe, então eu devo parar de estimar!?
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http://blog.ninlabs.com/2013/01/programmer-interrupted/
A entrega contínua nos guia para a um ambiente de confiança, e este nos liberta para repensar o processo
de estimar #NoEstimates
Oxe, então eu devo parar de estimar!?
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http://blog.ninlabs.com/2013/01/programmer-interrupted/
Acha legal a ideia… mas não sabe por onde começar?
Estamos aqui para conversar!
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@andreitognologithub.com/[email protected]
Obrigado! is hiring!
http://join.thoughtworks.com/
@snap_ci
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http://blog.ninlabs.com/2013/01/programmer-interrupted/
Referências
http://lmsgoncalves.com/2015/06/29/web-development-why-noestimates-is-the-way-to-go/
[1] ThreePillars - http://martinfowler.com/bliki/ThreePillars.html
[2] Velocity is Killing Agility! -
[3] A Thing I Can Estimate -
[4] PurposeOfEstimation -
[6] Estimation and Trust -
http://jimhighsmith.com/velocity-is-killing-agility/
http://zuill.us/WoodyZuill/2013/01/22/a-thing-i-can-estimate/
http://martinfowler.com/bliki/PurposeOfEstimation.html
http://www.industriallogic.com/blog/estimation-and-trust/
[5] Why NoEstimates is the way to go -
[7] No Estimate Programming Series – Intro Post -
http://zuill.us/WoodyZuill/2012/12/10/no-estimate-programming-series-intro-post/