Populism and the Tea Party

Kirk Hawkins

Quin Monson

Erin Wells

Excerpt from Sarah Palin’s Tea Party Convention Speech

It's easy to understand why Americans are shaking their heads when Washington has broken trust with the people that these politicians are supposed to be serving….We need to stand up and decide to do our part to put our government back on the side of the people!....Too often when big government and big business get together and cronyism sets in, well, it benefits the insiders, not everyday Americans.…Who can argue against the fact that government should be about the people and for the people? Remember, all political power is inherent in the people and government is supposed to be working for the people!

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0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Populism Index (scaled)

Frequency Distribution of Populism Index

Mean=0.72; N=999

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0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Tea Party Approval

Frequency Distribution of Tea Party Approval

Mean=0.52; N=867

Tea Party Approval

Variables Model 1 Model 2 Model 3

Populism Index 0.500*** (0.0753) 0.136*** (0.0522)Party ID ( 0=SD; 1=SR) 0.422*** (0.0424) 0.420*** (0.0422)

Ideology (0=VL; 1=VC) 0.527*** (0.0535) 0.504*** (0.0537)Income 0.00733** (0.00297) 0.0165*** (0.00412) 0.00745** (0.00299)Female -0.0353* (0.0193) -0.106*** (0.0271) -0.0394** (0.0193)Age -0.000728 (0.000674) 0.000196 (0.000909) -0.000959 (0.000680)Education -0.0303*** (0.00747) -0.0561*** (0.0102) -0.0278*** (0.00753)Non-White -0.0148 (0.0237) -0.134*** (0.0298) -0.0203 (0.0235)Constant 0.119** (0.0600) 0.293*** (0.0791) 0.0378 (0.0671)

Observations 739 788 739

R-Squared 0.621 0.150 0.625

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0.166

67 0.25

0.33

0.437

50.5

625

0.667 0.7

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330.9

375

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9

1

Predicted Values of Tea Party Approval Based On Model 3

Change in Populist At-titude*

Change in Party ID**

Change in Ideology***

*Independent Leaning Republican; Conservative; Male; average Income, Age and Education.**Conservative; Male; average Populism score, Income, Age and Education.***Independent Leaning Republican; Male; average Populism score, Income, Age and Education.

ADDITION

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0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Tea Party Approval

Tea Party Approval of Non-Populists

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0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Tea Party Approval

Tea Party Approval of Populists

Populist Index Score < 0.75 Populist Index Score ≥ 0.75

Non-Populist mean= 0.45 (389); Populist mean= 0.58 (487)p-value of difference=0.00

Populism Index Questions• POP1: In politics today there is a battle between

good and evil.

• POP2: The politicians in Congress need to follow the will of the people.

• POP3: The power of a few special interests prevents our country from making progress.

• POP4: The people, and not politicians, should make our most important policy decisions.