Population GrowthPopulation Growth

What does Texas look like today?What does Texas look like today? What are the implications of migration?What are the implications of migration? What does this mean for Texas?What does this mean for Texas?

Total Population GrowthTotal Population Growth

1970 -- 11.2 million1970 -- 11.2 million 1990 -- 17 million1990 -- 17 million 1994 -- 18.4 million1994 -- 18.4 million 2000 -- 20.3 million2000 -- 20.3 million

Recent Growth (2000)Recent Growth (2000)

Texas -- grew by 380,975Texas -- grew by 380,975 Immigrants -- 35.4% (Mexico and Latin Immigrants -- 35.4% (Mexico and Latin

America)America)

Murdock Report 1996Murdock Report 1996

Reasons:Reasons:

– Increase in size of populationIncrease in size of population

– demand for public programsdemand for public programs

– budgetary implicationsbudgetary implications

Other ReasonsOther Reasons

California Proposition 187California Proposition 187 anti-immigration sentimentanti-immigration sentiment use of public funds for some programs:use of public funds for some programs:

– educationeducation– health carehealth care

Federal government to pick-up tabFederal government to pick-up tab Guest worker programGuest worker program

Net MigrationNet Migration

Cohort component:Cohort component:– Anglos (non-Hispanic whites)Anglos (non-Hispanic whites)– Blacks (non-Hispanic Blacks)Blacks (non-Hispanic Blacks)– Hispanics of all racesHispanics of all races– others (all others not Hispanic)others (all others not Hispanic)

Movement into and out of state from other Movement into and out of state from other nations and statesnations and states

Assumes current migration rateAssumes current migration rate Program costs (1990 - 1995):Program costs (1990 - 1995):

– labor force rateslabor force rates– incarceration ratesincarceration rates– householder rateshouseholder rates– Welfare user ratesWelfare user rates

ImmigrationImmigration

Key determinants of growthKey determinants of growth– immigrants from other states in U.S.immigrants from other states in U.S.– immigrants from other nationsimmigrants from other nations– their descendents their descendents

Increased DiversityIncreased Diversity

Anglo -- increase by 20.4% Anglo -- increase by 20.4% Black -- increase by 62 %Black -- increase by 62 % Hispanic -- increase by 257.6 percentHispanic -- increase by 257.6 percent other == 648.4 %other == 648.4 %

ResultsResults

Reduces relative growth rate of labor force Reduces relative growth rate of labor force due to an aging populationdue to an aging population

Lowers the educational attainment and skill Lowers the educational attainment and skill level of labor forcelevel of labor force

reduces wage and salary level of labor forcereduces wage and salary level of labor force

Policy ImplicationsPolicy Implications

Increased growth in human services, job Increased growth in human services, job training, and educational programs for older training, and educational programs for older persons and minority groupspersons and minority groups

Lower socioeconomic resources due to Lower socioeconomic resources due to more minority households (poorer)more minority households (poorer)

faster projected growth of minority faster projected growth of minority populationspopulations

Reduces the overall socioeconomic welfare Reduces the overall socioeconomic welfare of state of state – decreased consumer expenditures decreased consumer expenditures – decreased tax revenuesdecreased tax revenues

Study resulted in Closing the Gap initiatives Study resulted in Closing the Gap initiatives for Texas universitiesfor Texas universities– Minority studentsMinority students– First-generation studentsFirst-generation students

Types of immigrants:Types of immigrants:– refugeesrefugees– temporary labor migrantstemporary labor migrants– without documentswithout documents– all other kinds of legal immigrantsall other kinds of legal immigrants

Eligibility for Public ServicesEligibility for Public Services

Refugees eligible upon arrivalRefugees eligible upon arrival permanent resident aliens not immediately permanent resident aliens not immediately

eligibleeligible illegal migrants -- lowest probability of illegal migrants -- lowest probability of

seeking public assistance due to fear to seeking public assistance due to fear to deportationdeportation