Population Estimates for December 2007Orleans Parish and Metro Area

New Orleans Metro Area 2008

As we approach January 1, 2008, the population of the metro area continues to rebound from the impact of Hurricane Katrina.

An estimated 1,236,505 residents (87% of the pre storm population) are located in the 8 parishes in the New Orleans metro area (including Tangipahoa Parish).

The distribution of the population has shifted among the parishes with Jefferson becoming the largest, followed by Orleans and St. Tammany. These three parishes now represent 78 Percent of the metro area population.

Metro Area Population – December 2007 – 1,236,505

2007 Voting Patterns Confirm Current Population Estimates

A comparison of October 2003 and 2007 voting activity generally parallels a comparison of pre- and post-Katrina population by parish.

The New Orleans area’s “share” of statewide votes cast in 2007 was 87% of its share of 2003 votes – a figure that is nearly identical to its estimated population

* Area includes Tangipahoa Parish.

  October, 2003 October, 2007 2007 as a Percentage of 2003

Metro Area Population 1,415,338 1,224,177 87%

Metro Area Votes Cast 404,082 335,717 83%

Louisiana Votes Cast 1,362,524 1,297,840 95%

Metro Area “Share” of State Votes 30% 26% 87%

Metro Area* Population and Votes Cast in Gubernatorial Primaries

Voting and Resettlement Patterns Prove to be Consistent in 2007

The percentage of votes cast in 2007 compared to 2003 closely mirrors the return of population in each parish.

The most heavily damaged parishes – Orleans, St. Bernard, Plaquemines – show diminished votes cast

The less heavily damaged parishes are near or slightly above pre-Katrina votes cast

Population of New Orleans

The repopulation of the City has progressed steadily since Hurricane Katrina.

The rate at which residents are returning has yet to slow; redevelopment activity is progressing throughout New Orleans

Imminent Population Trends

Based on recent monthly changes in population, the population of New Orleans should exceed 300,000 in the first quarter of 2008

Exceeding the 300,000 threshold will constitute a major milestone and will restore New Orleans to the cohort of “major” central cities

City Population (July 2006)

Pittsburgh, PA 312,819

Cincinnati, OH 332,252

Tampa, FL 332,888

Anaheim, CA 334,425

St. Louis, MO 353,837

Examples of U.S. cities with populations of approximately 300,000 - 350,000

Voting and Population Trends are Consistent

While the residential “activity index” is a primary source for GCR’s population estimates, votes cast in recent elections provide another measure of the number of people in the community.

A comparison of the number of votes cast in the gubernatorial primary elections in 2007 and 2003 provides an interesting insight into the population of New Orleans.

While fewer votes were cast in the 2007 gubernatorial election in Orleans Parish, the ratio of votes cast to resident population remained constant.

Population and Votes Cast in Gubernatorial Primaries

Relative Voting Activity byCouncil District

An examination of population and voting activity by Council District highlights the voter “participation rate” for each Council District

When measured against resident population, pre- and post-Katrina voting patterns by Council District have remained relatively constant.

Comparison of pre- and post- storm votes cast and population by Council District*

*Note: This table provides estimated population for December rather than October of 2007.

Post Election Voting Data Confirms Population Trends

Voting and resettlement patterns at the neighborhood level are very similar.

The following slides provide illustrations of post-Katrina activity by neighborhood according to two metrics:

– Residential “activity index” (rate of resettlement)

– Votes cast in the 2003 and 2007 gubernatorial primaries

As would be expected, resettlement patterns and votes cast are directly related throughout the City.

In both maps, red represents areas of less activity. Green represents areas of greater activity.

Residential Activity Index: December 2007

Votes Cast in Gubernatorial Primary: October 2007 as Percentage of October 2003

Red = <25%Orange = 25%-50%Yellow = 50%-75%Light Green = 75%-100%Bright Green = >100%

Snapshots of Recovery

The following slides illustrate resettlement patterns in the City over time: July 2006 thru December 2007. These maps demonstrate how repopulation has radiated outward from areas which recovered quickly after the storm.

In each of these maps, red represents areas in which activity is less than 20% of its pre-Katrina level. Green represents areas in which activity is greater than 80% of its pre-Katrina level. Yellow and orange display areas in between.

Boundaries of New Orleans City Council Districts are also displayed. To illustrate neighborhood level repopulation trends, neighborhood boundaries have been provided for the most recent month.

Resettlement Patterns: July 1, 2006

Resettlement Patterns: October 1, 2006

Resettlement Patterns: March 1, 2007

Resettlement Patterns: July 1, 2007

Resettlement Patterns: October 1, 2007

Resettlement Patterns: December 1, 2007

GCR & Associates, Inc.Gregory C. Rigamer

grigamer@gcrconsulting.com

504.304.2500 800.259.6192 fax 504.304.2525

2021 Lakeshore Drive New Orleans, LA 70122UNO Research & Technology ParkAdvanced Technology Center