population and employment growth for st lucie tpo area
TRANSCRIPT
Review of 2040 Population and
Employment Data January 13, 2014
• Socio-economic data (SE Data) defined• Why forecasts are developed• Developing future estimates• Observations on 2040 forecast• Maps• Using the forecasts to inform transportation decisions
Overview
Two primary components• Population
o Permanent Residents (Census)o Future based on historic and projected trendso Distributed among housing types
• Employmento Actual jobs available within St. Lucie Countyo Relationship with historic population is used to project
future employment
Definition of socio-economic data
• Federal statues require the use a travel demand model to project future traffic volumes.
• Inputs into the travel demand model include population and employment projections for the year 2040.
• Resulting traffic projections are considered in determining needed improvements in 2040.
Why forecasts are developed
• Countywide estimates for populationo University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR)o Staff / technical committee review
• Control Totals:
Developing Future Estimates
2010 2040 Growth Percent
Population 275,598 454,200 178,602 64.81%
Employment 95,059 150,361 55,302 58.18%
• Employmento Based on 2010 ratioso Broken down into 3 categories
2010 2040 Growth Percent
Employment 95,059 150,361 55,302 58.18%
Industrial 18,260 29,550 11,290 61.83%
Commercial 23,897 38,088 14,191 59.38%
Service 52,902 82,723 29,821 56.37%
Developing Future Estimates
• Population growth primarily in the SW annexation area with additional population growth along Jenkins Road corridor
• Employment growth primarily in the SW annexation area with additional employment growth along Kings Highway corridor
• Industrial employment growth also in Airport area
• Commercial employment growth scattered throughout TPO area
• Service employment is largest component of employment growth
Observations on the 2040 Forecast
Maps - Future Land Use
Maps - Vacant developable land - 1 acre or less
Maps - Approved development
Maps - Population Growth
Maps - Employment Growth
Employment growth- industrial
Employment growth- commercial
Employment growth- service
Using the forecast
• Future population and employment are inputs to the travel model
• Existing travel patterns are used to simulate future travel
• Allows for quantitative identification of needs
• Decisions about future roads or transit service
Maps - Population Growth
Maps - Population Growth
Questions?