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Population Ageing in Asia-Pacific: challenges and opportunities Sabine Henning, Ph.D. Chief Sustainable Demographic Transition Section Social Development Division Workshop on “Using ICTs to support older persons in managing chronic disease” Phnom Penh, 23 April 2019

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Page 1: Population Ageing in Asia-Pacific: challenges and ... · (life expectancy at birth,1950-2050) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Years 90 Life expectancy at birth (years), Asia Life expectancy

Population Ageing in Asia-Pacific: challenges and opportunitiesSabine Henning, Ph.D.ChiefSustainable Demographic Transition SectionSocial Development Division

Workshop on “Using ICTs to support older persons in managing chronic disease”Phnom Penh, 23 April 2019

Page 2: Population Ageing in Asia-Pacific: challenges and ... · (life expectancy at birth,1950-2050) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Years 90 Life expectancy at birth (years), Asia Life expectancy

Older persons: many faces of one of the major achievements of development

Page 3: Population Ageing in Asia-Pacific: challenges and ... · (life expectancy at birth,1950-2050) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Years 90 Life expectancy at birth (years), Asia Life expectancy

Population ageing: a major achievement of development (total fertility and life expectancy at birth, world, 1950-2050)

0102030405060708090

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Yea

rs

Life

birt

hs p

er w

oman

(age

d 15

-49)

Total fertility (births per woman 15-49) Life expectancy at birth (years)

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision - Special Aggregates, DVD Edition; United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).

Page 4: Population Ageing in Asia-Pacific: challenges and ... · (life expectancy at birth,1950-2050) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Years 90 Life expectancy at birth (years), Asia Life expectancy

Population ageing: facts and figures (1)(total number of older persons, regions of the world, 1950-2050)

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision - Special Aggregates, DVD Edition; United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).

-0.1

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

Pop

ulat

ion

60 y

ears

or o

ver (

mill

ions

)

Africa AsiaEurope Latin America and the CaribbeanNorthern America Oceania

Page 5: Population Ageing in Asia-Pacific: challenges and ... · (life expectancy at birth,1950-2050) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Years 90 Life expectancy at birth (years), Asia Life expectancy

Population ageing: facts and figures (2)total (percentage of older persons, regions of the world, 1950-2050)

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision - Special Aggregates, DVD Edition; United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Pop

ulat

ion

60 y

ears

or o

lder

as

perc

enta

ge o

f to

tal p

opul

atio

n

Africa AsiaEurope Latin America and the CaribbeanNorthern America Oceania

Page 6: Population Ageing in Asia-Pacific: challenges and ... · (life expectancy at birth,1950-2050) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Years 90 Life expectancy at birth (years), Asia Life expectancy

152020252526

45454553

656973

85115

Singapore (2000-2015)Republic of Korea (2000-2020)

China (2005-2025)Brazil (2010-2035)

Turkey (2010-2035)Japan (1970-1996)

Poland (1966-2011)Spain (1947-1992)

United Kingdom (1930-1975)Hungary (1944-1994)Canada (1944-2009)

United States (1944-2013)Australia (1938-2011)Sweden (1890-1975)France (1865-1980)

Years

The speed of population ageing is rapid in countries in Asia-Pacific (number of years required or expected for percent of population aged 65 or over to rise from 7 to 14 per cent)

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision - Special Aggregates, DVD Edition; United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017) and US Census Bureau (2009). An Ageing World: 2008.

Page 7: Population Ageing in Asia-Pacific: challenges and ... · (life expectancy at birth,1950-2050) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Years 90 Life expectancy at birth (years), Asia Life expectancy

0 20 40 60 80 100

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

Female MalePercentage

Women comprise the majority of older persons, Asia-Pacific, 2019 (percentage of older men and women in the total population by age group)

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision - Special Aggregates, DVD Edition; United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).

Page 8: Population Ageing in Asia-Pacific: challenges and ... · (life expectancy at birth,1950-2050) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Years 90 Life expectancy at birth (years), Asia Life expectancy

• more likely to live alone• less likely to have an

income, own property, have a pension

• facing problems accessing services (health, housing etc.)

• more likely to be subject to neglect and abuse

Older women are ….

Page 9: Population Ageing in Asia-Pacific: challenges and ... · (life expectancy at birth,1950-2050) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Years 90 Life expectancy at birth (years), Asia Life expectancy

Population ageing: a major achievement of development – Cambodia (total fertility, 1950-2050)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Life

birt

hs p

er w

oman

(age

d 15

-49)

Total fertility (births per woman 15-49), Asia

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision - Special Aggregates, DVD Edition; United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).

Page 10: Population Ageing in Asia-Pacific: challenges and ... · (life expectancy at birth,1950-2050) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Years 90 Life expectancy at birth (years), Asia Life expectancy

Population ageing: a major achievement of development – Cambodia (life expectancy at birth,1950-2050)

0102030405060708090

Yea

rs

Life expectancy at birth (years), Asia Life expectancy at birth (years), Cambodia

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision - Special Aggregates, DVD Edition; United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).

Page 11: Population Ageing in Asia-Pacific: challenges and ... · (life expectancy at birth,1950-2050) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Years 90 Life expectancy at birth (years), Asia Life expectancy

Estimated and projected average annual rate of change (total population vs. population 60+), Cambodia, 1950-2030

-3-2-1012345678

Ave

rage

ann

ual r

ate

of c

hang

e (p

er c

ent)

total 60+

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision - Special Aggregates, DVD Edition; United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).

Page 12: Population Ageing in Asia-Pacific: challenges and ... · (life expectancy at birth,1950-2050) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Years 90 Life expectancy at birth (years), Asia Life expectancy

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision - Special Aggregates, DVD Edition; United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).

6.64.5

12.2

7.1

17.1

10.2

24.2

16.9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Asia, 1950 Cambodia,1950

Asia, 2017 Cambodia,2017

Asia, 2030 Cambodia,2030

Asia, 2050 Cambodia,2050

Percentage of total population

Population age structure (65+): Cambodia – Asia, 1950, 2017, 2030, 2050

Page 13: Population Ageing in Asia-Pacific: challenges and ... · (life expectancy at birth,1950-2050) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Years 90 Life expectancy at birth (years), Asia Life expectancy

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-79

PercentageFemale, 2010 Male, 2010

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision - Special Aggregates, DVD Edition; United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).

Population pyramid: Cambodia, 2010

Page 14: Population Ageing in Asia-Pacific: challenges and ... · (life expectancy at birth,1950-2050) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Years 90 Life expectancy at birth (years), Asia Life expectancy

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-74

PercentageFemale, 2020 Male, 2020

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision - Special Aggregates, DVD Edition; United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).

Population pyramid: Cambodia, 2020

Page 15: Population Ageing in Asia-Pacific: challenges and ... · (life expectancy at birth,1950-2050) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Years 90 Life expectancy at birth (years), Asia Life expectancy

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-74

PercentageFemale, 2030 Male, 2030

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision - Special Aggregates, DVD Edition; United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).

Population pyramid: Cambodia, 2030

Page 16: Population Ageing in Asia-Pacific: challenges and ... · (life expectancy at birth,1950-2050) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Years 90 Life expectancy at birth (years), Asia Life expectancy

5556

57 57 57 57

62

59

57

5556

5859

6061

6059 58 58

57 57

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

Proportion female

Proportion female among population 60+, Cambodia, 1950-2050

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision - Special Aggregates, DVD Edition; United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).

Page 17: Population Ageing in Asia-Pacific: challenges and ... · (life expectancy at birth,1950-2050) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Years 90 Life expectancy at birth (years), Asia Life expectancy

Madrid International Plan of Action on Ageing (MIPAA)

Global guiding document on population ageingPriority direction:

A. Older persons and development;

B. Advancing health and well-being into old age;

C. Ensuring enabling and supportive environments.

Page 18: Population Ageing in Asia-Pacific: challenges and ... · (life expectancy at birth,1950-2050) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Years 90 Life expectancy at birth (years), Asia Life expectancy

•The 2030 Agenda is a holistic agenda - emphasizing the need to leave no-one behind •MIPAA and the 2030 Agenda are complimentary -MIPAA provides a more detailed action plan and will support the 2030 Agenda

MIPAA and 2030 Agenda

Page 19: Population Ageing in Asia-Pacific: challenges and ... · (life expectancy at birth,1950-2050) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Years 90 Life expectancy at birth (years), Asia Life expectancy

• Supporting MIPAA review• Population ageing an ICTs• Capacity-building on

measuring population ageing• Active ageing index• Capacity-building on

pensions• Research and analysis on

levels and trends in population ageing

• Etc.

What ESCAP is doing …

Page 20: Population Ageing in Asia-Pacific: challenges and ... · (life expectancy at birth,1950-2050) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Years 90 Life expectancy at birth (years), Asia Life expectancy

Population ageing agenda is an agenda for all generations

Page 21: Population Ageing in Asia-Pacific: challenges and ... · (life expectancy at birth,1950-2050) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Years 90 Life expectancy at birth (years), Asia Life expectancy

THANK YOU! [email protected]

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