Popular Political ClaimsPopular Political ClaimsAbout About KyotoKyoto::

Truth or Mythology?Truth or Mythology?

Christopher C. HornerChristopher C. HornerPraguePrague

3131stst May 2007 May 2007

ThisThis is America’s Kyoto Position is America’s Kyoto PositionStrange, I don’t see the name Bush anywhere…Strange, I don’t see the name Bush anywhere…

The US will not seek Kyoto ratification without The US will not seek Kyoto ratification without China, India, China, India, et alet al; because otherwise one merely ; because otherwise one merely exports emissions, even further transferring wealthexports emissions, even further transferring wealth

Well…Guess Who Established this Test?Well…Guess Who Established this Test?

First, a unanimous US Senate (11First, a unanimous US Senate (11thth July 1007, 95-0) July 1007, 95-0)

Then, none other than Al Gore: “‘As we said from Then, none other than Al Gore: “‘As we said from the very beginning, we will not submit this the very beginning, we will not submit this agreement for ratification until key developing agreement for ratification until key developing nations participate in this effort,’ nations participate in this effort,’ Gore declaredGore declared.” .” CNN, CNN, 1111thth December 1997 December 1997 http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1997/12/11/kyoto/http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1997/12/11/kyoto/

Some Legalisms AboutSome Legalisms AboutUS Treaty-making PolicyUS Treaty-making Policy

The President merely signs treatiesThe President merely signs treaties The Senate must approve them, by a 2/3 voteThe Senate must approve them, by a 2/3 vote Protocol has it that the President asks the Protocol has it that the President asks the

Senate to sign those signed treaties that he Senate to sign those signed treaties that he actually does want to joinactually does want to join

Still, there is nothing prohibiting the Senate Still, there is nothing prohibiting the Senate from voting on – approving, or rejecting – a from voting on – approving, or rejecting – a signed treaty without being askedsigned treaty without being asked

In short, In short, ifif the US signed Kyoto, it would be the US signed Kyoto, it would be the Senate responsible for approving or the Senate responsible for approving or blocking itblocking it

We We diddid sign Kyoto. sign Kyoto.On 12On 12thth November, 1998. November, 1998.

This has This has nothingnothing to do with George Bush. to do with George Bush.

Having Having agreed toagreed to the treaty on 11 the treaty on 11thth December December 1997, 801 days of the Clinton presidency 1997, 801 days of the Clinton presidency passed with no suggestion that the Senate passed with no suggestion that the Senate vote on itvote on it

The reason: The “Gore Test” was not metThe reason: The “Gore Test” was not met Bush simply continued the Clinton-Gore policy Bush simply continued the Clinton-Gore policy

against seeking Senate ratificationagainst seeking Senate ratification The US didn’t withdraw, as claimed, either but The US didn’t withdraw, as claimed, either but

continued sending huge delegations to the continued sending huge delegations to the talkstalks

Ambassador A. Peter BurleighChargé d'affaires, a.i. of the United States Mission to the United NationsStatement on Signing of the Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Kyoto Protocol)November 12, 1998

USUN PRESS RELEASE #206 (98)November 12, 1998

CHECK TEXT AGAINST DELIVERY

Statement by Ambassador A. Peter Burleigh, Chargé d'affaires, a.i. of the United States Mission to the United Nations, on Signing of the Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (Kyoto Protocol), at the United Nations, Nov. 12, 1998.

On behalf of the United States, I have just signed the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. By signing the Protocol, the U.S. Government reaffirms its commitment to work with countries from around the world to meet the challenge of global warming. We are guided by the firm belief that signing will serve our environmental, economic, and national security goals.We recognize that further work needs to be done in a number of areas, including participation by key developing countries and defining the rules and guidelines of measures such as international trading and the clean development mechanism. By signing the Protocol, we ensure our ability to continue playing a strong role in completing the work in these important areas.Yesterday in Buenos Aires, Argentina announced that it would voluntarily take on a binding emissions target in the same time frame as the United States and other developed countries. We applaud Argentina's leadership as the first developing nation to make such a pledge. If you have further questions, I would refer you to the delegation in Buenos Aires, headed by Undersecretary of State Stuart Eizenstat.Thank you.* * * * *

  UN Reform     UN Administration and Budget  

The Senate could have ratified Kyoto pre-Bush, The Senate could have ratified Kyoto pre-Bush, and it could vote on the treaty tomorrow.and it could vote on the treaty tomorrow.

It won’t. It won’t. EverEver..

Bush merely acknowledging reality was all that changed, and what Bush merely acknowledging reality was all that changed, and what led to the bombastic EU rhetoric, threats of trade wars, led to the bombastic EU rhetoric, threats of trade wars, etcetc..

It didn’t help that most journalists are apparently unable or It didn’t help that most journalists are apparently unable or unwilling to actually look beyond rhetoric and into the facts of the unwilling to actually look beyond rhetoric and into the facts of the matter.matter.

No president will seek ratification of Kyoto, or a more stringent No president will seek ratification of Kyoto, or a more stringent Kyoto IIKyoto II

And no US Senate will approve such a pact. And no US Senate will approve such a pact.

Maybe it is time for Europe to come to grips with this, stop Maybe it is time for Europe to come to grips with this, stop mischaracterizing things, and stop telling its Member States to mischaracterizing things, and stop telling its Member States to hold on, the US will join the misery once that mean Bush leaves hold on, the US will join the misery once that mean Bush leaves office.office.

This is only leading to the EU unilaterally demanding a This is only leading to the EU unilaterally demanding a continuation of the failed Kyoto scheme, post-2012. This will continuation of the failed Kyoto scheme, post-2012. This will prove costly to you.prove costly to you.

Now, Europe’s RealitiesNow, Europe’s Realities

Since Kyoto was agreed (1997), EU emissions have Since Kyoto was agreed (1997), EU emissions have risen 6 of the 9 years for which we have figuresrisen 6 of the 9 years for which we have figures(further, it serially revises its (further, it serially revises its 19901990 baselinebaseline emission level upward, 15 years after the fact!…one assumes emission level upward, 15 years after the fact!…one assumes that this is in order to lessen its looming violation)that this is in order to lessen its looming violation)

EU promised emissions would be down and droppingEU promised emissions would be down and dropping Instead, EU emissions are up, and risingInstead, EU emissions are up, and rising The EU now demands a new, post-2012 “Burden The EU now demands a new, post-2012 “Burden

Sharing [sic] Agreement”…by DecemberSharing [sic] Agreement”…by December This would end the free-ride for most, and it seems This would end the free-ride for most, and it seems

certain that the cuts required will prove politically certain that the cuts required will prove politically untenable, that the demands will cause disruptionuntenable, that the demands will cause disruption

““Europe is the World Leader!”Europe is the World Leader!”The claim made is actually re: “The claim made is actually re: “reducing emissionsreducing emissions” (!), not buying credits” (!), not buying credits

……In making that particular claim, absolutelyIn making that particular claim, absolutely Since Kyoto was agreed, EU carbon dioxide (CO2) Since Kyoto was agreed, EU carbon dioxide (CO2)

emissions are up, andemissions are up, and much faster than the US’smuch faster than the US’s And the gap is growing: EU CO2 emissions have And the gap is growing: EU CO2 emissions have

grown > 3x as fast as US’s since 2000grown > 3x as fast as US’s since 2000 Ask the time, get the history of the watch:Ask the time, get the history of the watch:

““But since 1990…!”But since 1990…!” Fine. But promise was made in 1997, andFine. But promise was made in 1997, and…(see next …(see next

slide)slide) In addition to the baseline games, In addition to the baseline games, the EUthe EU

rejected the effort to make Kyoto “binding and rejected the effort to make Kyoto “binding and enforceable”enforceable” [and the US should decide to join in a treaty to be [and the US should decide to join in a treaty to be the only onesthe only ones bound?] bound?]

EU PerformanceEU PerformanceHere’s what “Global Leadership in Reducing Emissions” Looks LikeHere’s what “Global Leadership in Reducing Emissions” Looks Like

Latest Czech Projection to EULatest Czech Projection to EUAs throughout Central/Eastern Europe, reduction only came via economic collapseAs throughout Central/Eastern Europe, reduction only came via economic collapse

All sectors

75

76

92

73

93

60

80

100

120

140

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

GH

G e

mis

sion

s (b

ase

year

=10

0)

Past trends Projections with existing measures

Kyoto target Projections with additional measures

Target with sinks

Emissions are Rising throughout the WorldEmissions are Rising throughout the WorldThe few exceptions are largely those still trying to get their economy movingThe few exceptions are largely those still trying to get their economy moving

Somehow Czechia Projects Massive Emission ReductionSomehow Czechia Projects Massive Emission ReductionThe EU countries with the most historically flawed projections do not even try this anymoreThe EU countries with the most historically flawed projections do not even try this anymore

Comparative Rates of IncreaseSo, Maybe Name-calling and Rhetoric Aren’t Enough?…

““The US is going it alone!”The US is going it alone!”

Absolutely…along with 155 others representing Absolutely…along with 155 others representing the majority of the world’s present and future the majority of the world’s present and future population, emissions and economic activitypopulation, emissions and economic activity

AllAll expressly reject Kyoto’s rationing expressly reject Kyoto’s rationing These countries are pursuing a technology pathThese countries are pursuing a technology path Those who purport to accept Kyoto-style Those who purport to accept Kyoto-style

rationing actually show by their actions that rationing actually show by their actions that they, too, reject actual they, too, reject actual emissions reductionsemissions reductions

No Party is reducing emissions since KyotoNo Party is reducing emissions since Kyoto

Kyoto RealitiesKyoto Realities: : ““Pride Goeth Before a FallPride Goeth Before a Fall…”…”

No one new has joined, nor will they, barring No one new has joined, nor will they, barring offers of even greater wealth transfer which offers of even greater wealth transfer which further exposing the treaty as being only thatfurther exposing the treaty as being only that

With no new Parties “post-2012”, there are With no new Parties “post-2012”, there are few to no sources from whom Parties may few to no sources from whom Parties may buy “credits”buy “credits”

This forces the EU post-2012 to make This forces the EU post-2012 to make actual actual emission reductionsemission reductions – both costly and for – both costly and for which the political will has yet to be found – which the political will has yet to be found – as renewables, JI and CDM aren’t enoughas renewables, JI and CDM aren’t enough

'I don't think it's within the power of human beings 'I don't think it's within the power of human beings to assure that the climate does not change' – to assure that the climate does not change' –

NASA chief Michael Griffin, yesterdayNASA chief Michael Griffin, yesterday

Nothing ever proposed would according to Nothing ever proposed would according to anyone have, under any scenario or set of anyone have, under any scenario or set of assumptions, a detectable climate impactassumptions, a detectable climate impact

Clearly it is promises not performance that Clearly it is promises not performance that mattermatter

So long as restrictions on economic and So long as restrictions on economic and individual activity are imposed, that’s fineindividual activity are imposed, that’s fine

In short, this isn’t about climateIn short, this isn’t about climate If it were, then proposals made in the name of If it were, then proposals made in the name of

we-must-act-now would actually rise to the we-must-act-now would actually rise to the level of acting, not simply restricting and level of acting, not simply restricting and coercingcoercing

Post-2012 all countries expect Post-2012 all countries expect theythey will get will get special treatment to be spared paying the tabspecial treatment to be spared paying the tab

Addressing the need for a post-2012 “Burden Sharing Addressing the need for a post-2012 “Burden Sharing Agreement” that assigns real cuts to countries Agreement” that assigns real cuts to countries previously given a free-ride, German Chancellor Angela previously given a free-ride, German Chancellor Angela Merkel “Merkel “admitted that tough negotiations are still admitted that tough negotiations are still ahead. The compromise would be a tough task. ahead. The compromise would be a tough task. The The beauty is, Merkel said smiling, that each member beauty is, Merkel said smiling, that each member state thinks they're a special case.state thinks they're a special case. ‘That makes us ‘That makes us all equalall equal’”.’”.-- Der Spiegel, 9-- Der Spiegel, 9thth March 2007 March 2007

This increasingly looks like politicians seeking to put off This increasingly looks like politicians seeking to put off an embarrassment until a later date when someone an embarrassment until a later date when someone else must admit to it and repair the damage.else must admit to it and repair the damage.

This is a This is a gamegame, not responsible policymaking or , not responsible policymaking or leadership.leadership.

Which Path? It’s Czechia’s DecisionWhich Path? It’s Czechia’s Decision

“ “The EU is presently investing abhorrent The EU is presently investing abhorrent sums in expanding natural gas generating sums in expanding natural gas generating

capacity and the infrastructure. However, the capacity and the infrastructure. However, the reserves of (non-Russian) natural gas in reserves of (non-Russian) natural gas in

Europe will be exhausted within the next 10 Europe will be exhausted within the next 10 years. Thus in 10 years' time we will be 100% years. Thus in 10 years' time we will be 100%

reliant on the dependability of Russia and reliant on the dependability of Russia and North Africa as energy suppliers.”North Africa as energy suppliers.”

ENDEND

We Must Act Now!We Must Act Now!It’s real-bad-here-now-a-moral-issue-we-must-act-now!!!!It’s real-bad-here-now-a-moral-issue-we-must-act-now!!!!

QueryQuery: although : although every proposalevery proposal out there has been out there has been offered in the name of this claim, why has offered in the name of this claim, why has no oneno one espousing it espousing it everever dared offer dared offer anythinganything that would that would under under anyany scenario, under scenario, under anyany set of assumptions, set of assumptions, according to according to anyany champion, have a detectable champion, have a detectable influence on climate? That is, that would rise to the influence on climate? That is, that would rise to the level of “acting”?level of “acting”?

Kyoto is the most aggressive proposal ever tabledKyoto is the most aggressive proposal ever tabled Kyoto’s proponents acknowledge no detectable impactKyoto’s proponents acknowledge no detectable impact Clinton Administration said Kyoto would cost US up to Clinton Administration said Kyoto would cost US up to

4% of GDP – 5 times the cost of the Iraq War – every 4% of GDP – 5 times the cost of the Iraq War – every yearyear

What to tell the cynic who says this appears simply to What to tell the cynic who says this appears simply to be about attaining long-held policy goals at best, and be about attaining long-held policy goals at best, and wildly expensive gesture politics at worst?wildly expensive gesture politics at worst?

““Amerikanische Verhältnisse”Amerikanische Verhältnisse” The The SenateSenate refusesrefuses to ratify the Kyoto rationing scheme to ratify the Kyoto rationing scheme

1998-2001 Republican controlled: NO1998-2001 Republican controlled: NO 2001-2002 Democrat controlled: NO2001-2002 Democrat controlled: NO 2003-2007 Republican Controlled: NO2003-2007 Republican Controlled: NO 2007-? Democrat controlled: Do not hold your breath2007-? Democrat controlled: Do not hold your breath

New EU line: “Bush’s successor would sign a new New EU line: “Bush’s successor would sign a new treaty!”treaty!” Even if true…Even if true…soso? ? Clinton signed KyotoClinton signed Kyoto…it’s the …it’s the SenateSenate In fact, no candidate – Clinton, McCain, or other – support Kyoto, In fact, no candidate – Clinton, McCain, or other – support Kyoto,

let alone a more stringent version than that Senate already let alone a more stringent version than that Senate already refused.refused.

““But California has agreed to do this!”But California has agreed to do this!” No. California agreed to No. California agreed to muchmuch lessless ( (19901990 levels, levels, by 2020by 2020), with ), with

no specifics but only telling an agency to “make it so”, with no specifics but only telling an agency to “make it so”, with nothing more to date.nothing more to date.

““The law would be accurately labeled the Global Warming The law would be accurately labeled the Global Warming Wishlist Act of 2006”, Prof. David Schoenbrod Wishlist Act of 2006”, Prof. David Schoenbrod (frmr. NRDC),(frmr. NRDC), Wall Wall Street Journal 5Street Journal 5thth April 2007 April 2007

““Amerikanische Verhältnisse”Amerikanische Verhältnisse”“Only 5% of the world’s population produces 25% of its (Man-made) GHGs!”“Only 5% of the world’s population produces 25% of its (Man-made) GHGs!”

Query: does the US pay 5%, or 25%, of the UN’s budget?Query: does the US pay 5%, or 25%, of the UN’s budget? Truth be told about this claim, with 5% of the world’s Truth be told about this claim, with 5% of the world’s

population, the US produces somewhere population, the US produces somewhere belowbelow 25% of its 25% of its anthropogenic emissions …and anthropogenic emissions …and aboveabove 25% of its wealth. 25% of its wealth.

Compared to Europe, US produces more jobs with higher Compared to Europe, US produces more jobs with higher wages, and enjoys an economy that is 42.5 percent wages, and enjoys an economy that is 42.5 percent wealthier per person. Year after year, the US leaves wealthier per person. Year after year, the US leaves Europe farther behind Europe farther behind not just economicallynot just economically but, now, in but, now, in rate of C02 increase: EU-15 emissions rising rate of C02 increase: EU-15 emissions rising much fastermuch faster..

While the US continues to emit more CO2 per While the US continues to emit more CO2 per personperson than than Europe – partly attributable to economic, geographic, Europe – partly attributable to economic, geographic, demographic and climatic differences – demographic and climatic differences – per dollar of per dollar of economic output, the US is improving much fastereconomic output, the US is improving much faster..

Press StatementRichard Boucher, SpokesmanWashington, DCMay 6, 2002

International Criminal Court: Letter to UN Secretary General Kofi Annan

Following is the text of the letter to UN Secretary General Kofi Annan from Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security John R. Bolton:

"Dear Mr. Secretary-General:

This is to inform you, in connection with the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court adopted on July 17, 1998, that the United States does not intend to become a party to the treaty. Accordingly, the United States has no legal obligations arising from its signature on December 31, 2000. The United States requests that its intention not to become a party, as expressed in this letter, be reflected in the depositary's status lists relating to this treaty.

 Sincerely,S/John R. Bolton"Released on May 6, 2002

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2002/9968.htm

Signs to Signs to looklook for for before leapingbefore leaping on onglobal warming regulationglobal warming regulation

The price of beachfront property falls The price of beachfront property falls significantly significantly (markets (markets dodo work, you know) work, you know)

Politicians and movie stars stop flying in Politicians and movie stars stop flying in helicopters and private jets helicopters and private jets (Snowball, meet (Snowball, meet Hell…)Hell…)

and, finally, whenand, finally, when

Environmental activists recommend Environmental activists recommend policy changes to combat global warming policy changes to combat global warming that they weren’t already in favor ofthat they weren’t already in favor of

Czech emissions, from its April Czech emissions, from its April 2006 Report to the UNFCCC2006 Report to the UNFCCC

The Four Stages of EU Kyoto Policy RehabilitationAnger

Denial

Bargaining

Acceptance

„We are here“, between Denial and Bargaining

Truth: No one wants to join this schemeIt is Europe that is “going it alone”, expensively and futilely

US vs. EU

1990 1997 2000 2004

US 5013.45 5547.9 (+10.6%) 5815.5 (+16%) 5912.21 (+18%)

EU-15 3250.42 3263.13 (+.04%) 3376.41 (+3.9%) 3572.24 (+9.9%)

EU-25* 4132.79 4059.69 (-1.8%) 4039.57 (-2.3%) 4234.86 (+2.5%)

* This figure is less Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania

1990 4132.79 + Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania (working backward est. at 62Mmt)

1997 4059.69 + 18.11, 8.31, 16.21 (42.63)

2000 4039.57 + 16.15, 7.26, 13.19 (36.6)

2004 4234.86 + 18.23, 8.40, 13.23 (40.46)

Amazing how shutting some cold-weather temperature stations can heat the planet

Here’s a plan: cool the planet by re-opening them

The Kyoto Emperor Has No ClothesThe Kyoto Emperor Has No Clothes

““Bush Squandered Post-9/11 Bush Squandered Post-9/11 Goodwill by Rejecting Kyoto!”Goodwill by Rejecting Kyoto!”

Pick your calendar – Julian, Gregorian –March Pick your calendar – Julian, Gregorian –March 17 comes before September 11, 17 comes before September 11, every yearevery year. . Including in 2001.Including in 2001.

Bush 43 merely reiterated the Clinton-Gore Bush 43 merely reiterated the Clinton-Gore position, which received no such lambasting.position, which received no such lambasting.

This act cannot have somehow, a year later, This act cannot have somehow, a year later, squandered the mythical “we’re all Americans squandered the mythical “we’re all Americans now, now, mon amimon ami, with you in spirit and , with you in spirit and purpose!”purpose!”

This, like so many similar canards, is merely This, like so many similar canards, is merely an an excuseexcuse for anti-Americanism and certain for anti-Americanism and certain behavior. And a pretty poor one at that.behavior. And a pretty poor one at that.

Total EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions in relation to the Kyoto targetTotal EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions in relation to the Kyoto target(source: European Environment Agency, 2006)(source: European Environment Agency, 2006)

““The Senate already voted Kyoto down”The Senate already voted Kyoto down”Invoked to absolve the Senate, and demand Bush create something differentInvoked to absolve the Senate, and demand Bush create something different

On On July 11, 1997July 11, 1997, the Senate unanimously , the Senate unanimously instructed the Clinton-Gore Administration to instructed the Clinton-Gore Administration to not agree to Kyoto or such a pactnot agree to Kyoto or such a pact

This was unsolicited Art. II, Sec. 2 “advice”This was unsolicited Art. II, Sec. 2 “advice” On On December 11, 1997December 11, 1997 the Administration the Administration

did so anyway, ignoring the advicedid so anyway, ignoring the advice They They signedsigned it 11 months later it 11 months later So, this is a great symbolic vote, but OTBESo, this is a great symbolic vote, but OTBE

Key Kyoto/Climate Change Political MythsKey Kyoto/Climate Change Political Myths

The cognoscente will insist upon fealty to and repentance for the The cognoscente will insist upon fealty to and repentance for the following truths we simply must confront in a world without Bush.following truths we simply must confront in a world without Bush.

Instead of me-tooisms and a race to the bottom, a candidate should Instead of me-tooisms and a race to the bottom, a candidate should embraceembrace this issue, as neither too complex nor politically dangerous: this issue, as neither too complex nor politically dangerous:

Bush made such a mess with his radical policy departureBush made such a mess with his radical policy departure The US “squandered post-9/11 goodwill by rejecting The US “squandered post-9/11 goodwill by rejecting

Kyoto”Kyoto” The US is going it alone, is isolated, a rogue climate stateThe US is going it alone, is isolated, a rogue climate state As climate criminals we are being left behind, we must As climate criminals we are being left behind, we must

follow the lead of our moral superiors in Europe, follow the lead of our moral superiors in Europe, etcetc.. ““We must re-engage, and restore our image overseas…”We must re-engage, and restore our image overseas…” ““We must act now, and my proposal does that”We must act now, and my proposal does that”