polycentric regions: comparing complementarity and institutional governance in the san francisco bay...

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DOI: 10.1177/0042098009353074

Margaret Cowell is in the Department of City and Regional Planning, Cornell University, 129 Sibley Dome, Ithaca, New York, 14853, USA. E-mail: [email protected].

Polycentric Regions: Comparing Complementarity and Institutional Governance in the San Francisco Bay Area, the Randstad and Emilia-RomagnaMargaret Cowell

[Paper first received, March 2008; in final form, March 2009]

Abstract

A gap in the literature that remains largely unfilled is a discussion of how polycentrism relates to broader tensions between strategies of specialised industrial agglomeration economies and diverse regional portfolios. Relatively little is known about how strategies of polycentrism relate to the industrial composition and economic complementarity both at the regional scale and for individual cities within the region. In this paper, correspondence analysis is used to quantify complementarity in the economic profiles of cities in three polycentric regions. The findings suggest that the degree of complementarity varies greatly but has decreased in all three of the case study regions over time. Subsequent analysis of institutional structures in these three regions suggests that regions with weaker regional governments, stronger regional identities and intentional polycentric development strategies might experience higher levels of complementarity. A series of hypotheses that relate institutions to complementarity are proposed as possible directions for future research.

Introduction

The concept of polycentric development has become increasingly popular in recent years, bringing with it a desire to reach a better understanding of the potential oppor-tunities and possibilities associated with it. Polycentrism generally refers to regions in

which there are multiple urban centres that are functionally interrelated either through competition or co-operation. The concept of polycentrism has been applied at a variety of scales ranging from the international interde-pendencies of global cities to the intraurban

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relationships of actors and firms within a given city (Davoudi, 2003). In this paper, the concept of polycentrism refers to the interurban rela-tionships that exist between cities in three larger, sub-national polycentric urban regions.

Much has been said in the literature about the potential competitive advantages that poly-centric development may have over mono-centric or non-centric regions (see Bailey and Turok, 2001; Lambooy, 1997; Camagni, 2001). Yet, despite its important status in many other areas of inquiry, very little has been said about the potential effects of poly-centric development on regional economies. To be sure, researchers have examined some aspects of the polycentric region’s economy, including business start-ups (Kloosterman and Musterd, 2001) and regional competitive-ness (Lambregts, 2006). However, one gap in the literature that remains largely unfilled is a discussion of how polycentrism relates to broader tensions between strategies of special-ised industrial agglomeration economies and diverse regional portfolios. We know relatively little about how strategies of polycentrism relate to the industrial composition and inter-firm co-operation within these regions both at the regional scale and for individual cities within the region.

One major attempt to reach a better under-standing of changes in industrial composition in a polycentric region is Meijers’ (2005) study of economic complementarity in the Randstad region of the Netherlands. Using correspondence analysis, Meijers found that complementarity, referring to the degree to which cities in a region are differentiated in terms of their economic role, decreased between 1996 and 2002 in the Randstad. Meijers created a comparative index that allows for both comparisons within a region and between regions. In a later article, Meijers (2007) examined the division of labour between the main cities of the Randstad, the Flemish Diamond and the RheinRuhr area. This article proved insightful in terms of

comparisons between regions but said little about the roles that institutions and local culture might play in polycentric regions.

In this paper, I re-create Meijers’ earlier study of the Randstad and extend it to include two additional regions: Emilia-Romagna in Italy and the San Francisco Bay Area in the US. Extending Meijers’ work to include these three case studies allows us to consider how differences in local political and economic cultures, institutional structures and federal and local governments might relate to indus-trial composition and polycentrism. The three cases also allow for the development of a series of hypotheses that relate institutions to com-plementarity and propose possible directions for future research. Overall, this exploratory paper contributes to the discussion of poly-centrism in the literature through its use of international comparative analysis and by offering important preliminary hypotheses regarding the relationship between the econo-mies of polycentric regions and institutional, cultural and governmental factors.

The paper includes six main sections. In the first section, I provide an introduction to the concept of polycentrism. In the second section, the concepts of synergy and corre-spondence analysis are discussed. The third section briefly introduces the three main case study regions, highlighting similarities and differences between each region’s culture, economy, institutional structure, govern-ment and approach to polycentrism. The fourth section outlines the methodology and the fifth section provides the findings. In the final section, three main hypotheses are proposed as potential starting-points for future exploration.

Polycentrism

Although polycentric development has been actively pursued in places like the Randstad region of the Netherlands since 1958, the formal use of polycentrism remains a relatively new



POLYCENtRIC REgIONS 3

concept for much of the world (Lambregts, 2006). In the literature on polycentrism that does exist, a three-pronged definition tends to predominate, describing polycentric regions as follows

(1) They consist of a number of historically distinct cities that are located in more or less close proximity (roughly within current commuting distances).

(2) They lack a clear leading city which dom-inates in political, economic, cultural and other aspects and, instead, tend to consist of a small number of larger cities that do not differ that much in terms of size, or overall economic importance and a greater number of smaller cities.

(3) The member cities are not only spatially distinct, but also constitute independ-ent political entities (Kloosterman and Lambregts, 2001, pp. 718–719).

This particular definition is relatively new, but a host of other concepts related to the concept of polycentrism have dotted the scholarly literature in recent history. Other concepts that have undoubtedly influenced the conceptualisation of poly-centrism include the garden city move-ment (Howard, 1902/1965), megalopolis (Gottmann, 1961), urban fields (Friedmann and Miller 1965), city networks (Camagni and Salone, 1993), polynucleated metropolitan regions (Dieleman and Faludi, 1998), the regional city (Calthorpe and Fulton, 2001) and mega-city regions (Hall et al., 2006).

Although the definition of polycentrism is not always agreed upon (Davoudi, 2003; Green, 2007), recent interest in polycen-trism amongst planners and politicians has increased dramatically. This is due, in large part, to a proliferation of the polycentric paradigm in planning and other public documents. In the Netherlands, a country long attuned to the polynucleated approach, polycentrism has been a part of planning

documents since at least 1958, when the Second Report on Physical Planning in the Netherlands outlined the principles of deconcentrated concentration, a precursor to today’s polycentrism. Another, albeit broader, application of the polycentrism concept to policy can be found in the European Spatial Development Perspective (ESDP), which promotes polycentricity across national boundaries and at the level of Europe as a whole. Approved by the Informal Council of Ministers in Spatial Planning in 1999, the ESDP is a legally non-binding document that forms a strategic policy framework for the use of public officials with planning responsibilities (EC, 1999).

Regions have pursued polycentricity as a policy objective for a variety of reasons, including a desire to improve their region’s economic climate (Governa and Salone, 2005). Researchers have argued that polycentric regions have potential competitive advantages over monocentric regions (see Bailey and Turok, 2001; Lambooy, 1997; Camagni, 2001). However, many observers still remain uncon-vinced of the economic benefits of polycentric development (see Kloosterman and Musterd, 2001; Lambregts, 2006). Understanding what factors influence the economies of polycentric regions is indeed an arduous task. Researchers have attempted to understand how the econo-mies of polycentric regions vary on the basis of industrial clustering (Suarez-Villa and Walrod, 1997), functionality (Green, 2007), population dispersion (Hall et al., 2006), financial services agglomeration (Cook et al., 2007), transport infrastructure (Cervero, 2001), job accessi-bility (Cervero et al., 1995) and social cohesion (Turok, 2005). Few, however, have considered how the economy is affected by synergy, which generally refers to the economic relationships among a collection of distinct but proximally located cities that interact with one another in a synergistic way such that the economy of the region as a whole becomes greater than the sum of its parts (Meijers, 2005).



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Synergy and Correspondence Analysis

The concept of synergy relates primarily to economic networks and more specifically to the networks that exist between firms, trans-port and communication networks in a given region. Networks generally include a system of nodes, linkages between nodes, flows and meshes (Meijers, 2005). The strength of these economic networks may also be influenced, at least in part, by the richness of the civic heritage that exists in a given area. Robert Putnam describes civic heritage as

networks of organized reciprocity and civic solidarity—guilds, religious fraternities, and tower societies for self defense in the medieval communes cooperatives, mutual aid societies, neighborhood associations, and choral societies in the twentieth century (Putnam, 1993, p. 35).

Many researchers have since examined how networks of social capital and civic heritage relate to economic development and effective government (see Glaeser et al., 2002; Knack and Keefer, 1997; LaPorta et al., 1997). In general, research in this area suggests that net-works—including those associated with social capital, along with human, financial, natural and infrastructural capital—play a significant role in the shaping of regional economies.

Synergy exists in cases where there is a “rise in the performance of a network through efficient and effective interaction” (Meijers, 2005, p. 767). There are three main ways in which synergy is thought to affect the econo-mies of polycentric urban regions. The first, complementarity, relates to the vertical synergy that results from a specialisation process, “redistributing resources and activities among the participating actors according to their competence” (Meijers, 2005, p. 767). In the second, co-operation, horizontal synergy is derived from the economies of scale that result from co-operative efforts. Thirdly, combined positive externalities result from

both co-operation and complementarity in a network. Together, these three mechanisms—complementarity, co-operation and the exter-nalities associated with both—contribute to synergy in a given network. In this paper, only the contributions of complementarity and co-operation will be considered; it is beyond the scope of this study to quantify or analyse the contributions of positive externalities.

Studies of synergy have generally focused on networks between firms, institutions or people (Atuahene-Gima, 1996; and Evans, 1996). In this study, however, the emphasis is on networks between cities in order to reach a better understanding of the extent to which co-operation and complementa-rity are present in polycentric regions. The application of the synergy concept to the interurban scale requires acknowledgement of additional factors that affect this net-work between cities. In order to scale up to the interurban level, we must consider the role that agency plays. Taylor (2004) notes that networks between cities are shaped by agency in four main ways: service firms, city governments, service-sector institutions and nation-states. These processes do not operate independently of one another; rather, they interact with one another in complex ways. This complexity makes the measurement and detection of their contributions to the network difficult. Hence, the complexities of all but one of these four types of agency—service firms—are not directly addressed in the quantitative analysis of this particular paper. However, the other three main factors that influence the networks between cities are considered later, to some extent, in the hypotheses section.

In order to understand more fully the net-works that exist between cities, the spatial location of employment by sector will be analysed through the lenses of complemen-tarity and co-operation in order to determine the degree to which synergistic properties are present in each of three regions: the San




Francisco Bay Area, Emilia-Romagna and the Randstad. This investigation will also include a thorough discussion of how institutional structures differ in each of these regions and the roles that these institutions may play in shaping their respective regions.

One of the main ways of measuring com-plementarity in a polycentric region is through the use of correspondence analysis. This technique analyses the “association between two or more categorical variables by representing the categories of the variables as points in low-dimensional space” (Clausen, 1998, p. 2). The outputs of correspondence analysis are such that categories with similar distributions will be represented as points that are in close proximity, while those with dissimilar distributions will be positioned farther away from one another. The use of this technique in the social sciences is not new; it has long been used for exploratory data analysis (see Hill, 1974; Benzecri, 1992; van der Heijden and de Leeuw, 1989). However, only recently has the technique been used to measure complementarity in polycentric regions (Meijers, 2005).

In his groundbreaking study of the Randstad, Meijers focused on changes in synergy mecha-nisms of complementarity over time. Using two-digit employment data, Meijers found that

the main cities in the Randstad perform distinct roles ... and the extent of complementarity in economic roles diminished during the 1996–2002 period by almost 13 per cent, leading to less synergy at the macro level of the cities in the Randstad (Meijers, 2005, p. 779).

Such findings are helpful in thinking about the application of correspondence analysis to other polycentric regions. Although Meijers limited his analysis to only the Randstad area, comparisons between regions are also possible using this technique. This study will employ correspondence analysis to determine the extent to which complementarity exists in three different polycentric regions.

In that same study, Meijers also discusses synergy mechanisms of co-operation. Co-operation is best examined through a qualitative examination of modes of govern-ance and the institutional structures at work in a given region. Meijers (2005) found, respecting co-operation, that the Randstad contained a patchwork of co-operation net-works which are thought to support a regional organising capacity. He posits that

synergy is likely to be achieved, although the development of externalities depends on the functioning of these often rather new co-operation networks (Meijers, 2005, p. 773).

Knowing more about a region’s government and governance structures is useful in determin-ing how and why certain polycentric regions become more or less synergistic over time.

In order to determine the degree to which synergy exists in polycentric regions and to extend the work of Meijers (2005), I will explore three case studies: the Randstad, in the Netherlands; the San Francisco Bay Area, in the US; and Emilia-Romagna, in Italy (see Figure 1). These three regions were chosen because together they illustrate how the spa-tial strategy of polycentrism has manifested itself in three diverse settings. Although more thorough descriptions of the three regions will follow, it is important to note that each of the regions differs in the degree to which it has a regional government, in the degree to which its government has actively pursued polycentrism as a formal strategy and in the strength of its regional identity. These differ-ences, along with basic differences in culture, size and composition, provide the variation necessary to develop initial hypotheses about the various manifestations of polycentrism and the ways in which they relate to industrial composition and complementarity. Table 1 shows current characteristics of these regions, Table 2 shows how these three regions com-pare on basic measures in 2002. The following section will briefly describe each region.



6 mARgAREt COwELL

The Case Study Areas

The San Francisco Bay Area is composed of nine counties that surround the San Francisco Bay: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano and Sonoma. The population of these counties, around 6.9 million people in 2006, includes the four major urban centres of San Francisco (population 744 041), San Jose (929 936), Oakland (397 067) and Santa Rosa (154 212) (US Census Bureau, 2006). The region has been relatively prosperous in recent years. The unemployment rate

in September 2007 for the San Francisco Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) was 4.2 per cent, for the San Jose MSA was 5.0 per cent, for Oakland was 4.9 per cent and for Santa Rosa was 4.4 per cent (US Department of Labor, 2007). In 2002, the latest year included in this study, the region had approxi-mately 3.1 million jobs or roughly 24 per cent of the private non-farm jobs in the state (US Census Bureau, 2002). Manufacturing is an important part of nearly every county in the region’s employment base, but the Bay Area has a diverse economy and the different cities and counties typically offer employment in

Table 1. Current characteristics of the three polycentric regions, 2006

San Francisco Bay Area Emilia-Romagna The Randstad

Population (millions) 6.9 4.1 6.7Labour force (millions) 3.5 2.6 3.2Surface area (square km) 17 930 22 124 6 400

Figure 1. the Randstad, Emilia-Romagna and the San Francisco Bay Area.




many different industries. As of 2002, almost 25 per cent of San Francisco County’s work-force was employed in finance and insurance or professional, scientific and technical serv-ices (US Census Bureau, 2002). In Santa Clara County, home to the city of San Jose and Silicon Valley, the information and manu-facturing sectors account for roughly 23 per cent of local jobs (US Census Bureau, 2002).

Emilia-Romagna is situated in the northern half of Italy, bounded by the Adriatic Sea to the east, the Po River to the north and the Apennine range to the south. Covering a total of 22 124 square kilometres, it is the fifth-larg-est of the 20 provinces of Italy. The population is just over 4 million (Eurostat, 2004). The region is composed of nine provinces with Bologna acting as the capital. Many of the most important centres of Emilia-Romagna were established along the old Roman road, the Via Emilia, including Bologna (population 373 026), Parma (177 069), Reggio nell’Emilia (159 809) and Modena (180 080). In the years following World War II, Emilia-Romagna lacked the large industrial base of other cities in northern Italy. To spur economic growth,

the left-wing government implemented a strategy to promote small business through employee ownership and co-operatives and also developed an institutional structure to support small businesses (Logue, 2006). To some extent, Piore and Sabel’s (1984) earlier finding—that the Emilia-Romagna economy is based largely on a series of complex and flexible networks between small and medium-sized firms—remains true today. A more recent study concluded that a co-existence now exists within industrial districts, such that traditional arrangements as well as other hierarchical relationships are both utilised (Brioschi et al., 2004). Nevertheless, the hall-mark of the region remains the clustering and networking of these small enterprises. Emilia-Romagna has the highest employment rate in all of Italy with relatively high participation of women in the workforce (Eurostat).

The Randstad (translated as ‘rim city’) is a horseshoe-shaped region of the Netherlands with a green area in the centre (the Green Heart) that is surrounded by four main cities: Amsterdam (population 991 000), The Hague (810 000), Rotterdam (1.4 million) and Utrecht (640 000). Although the Randstad is not offi-cially recognised as a region by the Netherlands government or by the European Union (EU), it is an important centre of population, economic activity and cultural activities in Holland. Inhabitants of the Randstad total 6.7 million, or 42 per cent of the total population of the Netherlands (Regio Randstad, 2004). The population density in the Randstad is 1224 people per square kilometre (OECD, 2007). The total area of the Randstad is approximately 6400 square kilometres (Dieleman, 1996). The Randstad is largely rural in nature—only 26 per cent of its total area (542 000 ha) is con-sidered urban—and covers approximately 20 per cent of the land area of the Netherlands (Dieleman, 1996). The majority of land in the Randstad is used for agriculture (64 per cent) and for nature reserves (10 per cent) (OECD, 2007, citing TNO, 2006). Although it represents

Table 2. Relative employment size of regions by city in 2002

Area Employment

San Francisco Bay AreaOakland 972 754San Francisco 939 421San Jose 895 205Santa Rosa 166 357

Emilia-RomagnaParma 90 632Reggio Emilia 77 336Modena 95 926Bologna 206 088

The RandstadAmsterdam 578 000The Hague 416 000Utrecht 391 000Rotterdam 606 000



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only 20 per cent of the land area in Holland, the Randstad is home to 45 per cent of the country’s jobs (Kantor, 2006). As a whole, the Randstad economy performs well on a variety of measures. Its residents enjoy high levels of labour force participation (77 per cent in 2003), one of the lowest unemployment rates of all OECD countries, high worker productiv-ity and a level of education that is above the EU average (Regio Randstad, 2004). Kantor (2006, p. 806) notes that the Amsterdam area and adjacent localities have seen a decrease in their manufacturing and commercial functions and an increase in advanced new economy activities such as business services, tourism and financial services. Similarly, Utrecht has become an important commercial centre for the domestic service economy. Rotterdam and The Hague, by contrast, have had less success in attracting services and are known as the sites of the Netherlands’ main port, and as the home of both the national government and the seat of many international organisations respectively (Kantor, 2006). These southern cities have their economic base in transport and related logistical functions, insurance and the port-related petrochemical industry (Lambooy, 1997).

Methodology

Complementarity in economic terms can relate to overlapping relationships between firms, actors, networks and institutions among others. In this study, the focus will be on complementarity as it exists among cities in polycentric regions based upon employment concentration in different economic sectors. Building upon Meijers’ (2005) study of the Randstad, this study will compare comple-mentarity across three polycentric regions. Measures of complementarity pertain directly to the degree to which cities within a region are differentiated in terms of their economic roles. Knowing more about differentiation allows us to glean information about the

division of labour in polycentric regions. Meijers extends this argument by suggesting that a measure of complementarity also

indicates to some extent the differentiation in business environments, as one city may provide better conditions for certain firms and this then becomes explicit in its economic profile (Meijers, 2005, p. 774).

In this study, an economic profile refers to the number of jobs in each 2-digit level of the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) or the statistical classifica-tion of economic activities in the European Community (NACE) code in a given met-ropolitan area. Although the NAICS and NACE classification systems are not directly comparable at all levels, comparisons at the 2-digit level provide accurate aggregate benchmarks (see Mohnen and Therrien, 2005).1 Comparisons made at the 2-digit level in this study conform to the concordance guidelines of the US Census 2002 NAICS US to NACE Rev. 1.1 (US Census, 2008).

In the San Francisco Bay Area, the data come from the California Employment Development Department’s Industry Employment Official Monthly Estimates (CES) database. In Emilia-Romagna, the data come from Istat-National Statistics Institute database. Data on employment in the Randstad region come from CBS Statline by Statistics Netherland. All three datasets represent the number of jobs in a given area by the industry in which they are employed. The Bay Area dataset is classified according to NAICS. Data on the Randstad and Emilia-Romagna are classified according to the EUROSTAT system’s NACE code. Data for Emilia-Romagna and for the Bay Area are provided for 1996 and 2001.2 Data for the Randstad differ slightly due to availability and include 1996 and 2002 observations. A difference of one year should be negligible in the percentage change measurement used to compare the three regions. The spatial




scale at which each case study region’s data is collected is comparable but differs in name. In the San Francisco Bay Area, data are col-lected at either the level of the Metropolitan Division (Oakland and San Francisco) or the Metropolitan Statistical Area (Santa Rosa and San Jose).3 In the Randstad, data are collected at the level of the municipality, which is a sub-division of the province. In Emilia-Romagna, the data correspond to the level of the provincia, which are sub-divisions of the region.

In correspondence analysis, complemen-tarity is measured by total inertia, a single statistic that represents the degree to which the economic profiles of a group of cities differ from one another. In other words, inertia would equal zero if all of the cities in a given region had exactly the same economic profiles. A maximum inertia value, which is equal to N (the number of cities) – 1, would be achieved if all of the cities had com-pletely distinct economic profiles. In reality, inertia is never likely to equal zero and is never likely to be maximised because such an array of cities would be extremely rare. Inertia is comparable with both variance and eigenvalues,4 which indicate how much of the total inertia each factor explains. More specifically, total inertia is a measure of the extent to which the economic profile points are spread around a centroid, which represents the average economic profile of the cities being studied (Meijers, 2005). The calculation of total inertia in two different periods will allow for the comparison of inertia within a single region over time. In order to compare total inertia measures across regions, an additional measure is necessary. Borrowing from Meijers (2005), a normalised complementarity ratio is calculated by dividing total inertia by the maximum total inertia possible and then multiplying the result by 100. This calcula-tion results in a normalised complementary ratio value between 0 and 100, which can

then be used to compare complementarity across regions.

One of the shortcomings of the correspond-ence analysis method is that its results say nothing about whether actors or firms within a given polycentric region are actually inter-acting with one another. Determining which economic functions are specialised in a given city and which are more evenly dispersed throughout the cities in a polycentric region does not facilitate hard and fast conclusions about interactions between them. However, such findings do allow us to hypothesise about the potential for interaction between these cities by determining the degree to which these cities might look to one another for com-plementary goods and services. In so doing, correspondence analysis allows us to measure complementarity and then hypothesise about the effects that institutions and government may have on it. Although it is beyond the scope of this paper, future research might consider how data on economic interactions could be used to determine the degree to which actors or firms do interact.

One of the most useful aspects of cor-respondence analysis is the graphical repre-sentations of individual co-ordinates, which provide information on the relative posi-tion of points in relation to the dimensions included in the analysis. In this instance, we are concerned with the associations between cities (columns in a contingency table) and economic activities (rows in the contingency table). Similar to factor analysis, correspond-ence analysis is a method for analysing the total chi-squared statistic by identifying two dimensions with which deviations from expected values can be displayed.

The graphical representation is the result of a three-step process whereby the relative fre-quencies and masses or marginal proportions are calculated, the distance between points is computed, and the n-dimensional space that best fits the points is identified (Clausen, 1998). In this case, we are interested in the



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visual display of the associations between cities and economic profiles (see Table 3 and Figures 1–3). The dimensions that are displayed in the plot, which are similar to principal components in factor analysis, rep-resent the two dimensions that best explain the inertia in this region. Correspondence analyses were conducted for all three regions in both of the study years, but graphic displays of these associations are provided for each region in 2001 only.

In all cases, the origin represents the average profile of the cities included in the particular region. Thus, if two cities lie close together, then their economic profiles are relatively similar. The same is true for economic activities, meaning that two sectors in close proximity are relatively evenly distributed amongst the cities. Interpretation of the cities as they pertain to the sectors is slightly more complicated. Meijers suggests that

In general, cities and activities will be close to each other when the observed value for this pair of points in the table is larger than expected, and the distance will be large when the observed value is less than the expected value (Meijers, 2005, p. 777).

Findings

The results of the correspondence analysis, seen in Table 3, suggest that complementarity has decreased during the study period in all three

polycentric regions—or, in other words, that each of the regions became less internally differ-entiated in the late 1990s.5 Values for total inertia, complementarity ratios and percentage change in complementarity ratios over time are given. The trend column shows that complementarity decreased by 17.5 per cent in San Francisco, 18.5 per cent in the Randstad and 28.8 per cent in Emilia-Romagna. The San Francisco Bay Area remains the most complementary region with a ratio of 4.7 in 2001. The economic profiles of the Randstad (4.4) and Emilia-Romagna (1.4) are less complementary than the Bay Area (4.7) and both have become significantly less differ-entiated over time.

In Figures 2–4, the graphical representa-tions of the individual co-ordinates for each region, reveal interesting findings. In 2001, the four cities of the Bay Area have relatively distinct economic profiles (Figure 2). Moving outward from the origin, a series of distinc-tive axes can be traced based on associations between cities and certain economic activities. For instance, Oakland has a dominant posi-tion in retail, health care and social assistance and non-durable manufacturing. San Jose dominates in economic activities related to educational services and manufacturing of durable goods, which makes sense given Silicon Valley’s relationship with high-technology development and the variety of educational institutions found there. San Francisco, as one would expect, is dominant in economic activities related to information, transport,

Table 3. Correspondence Analysis Results

Trend Complementarity (Percentage change Region Total inertia ratio in ratio)

1996 2001a 1996 2001 1996 to 2001

San Francisco (N = 4) 0.172 0.141 5.7 4.7 -17.5Randstad (N = 4) 0.161 0.132 5.4 4.4 -18.5Emilia-Romagna (N = 4) 0.059 0.042 2.0 1.4 -28.8

a Data for the Randstad are for 2002.




finance and insurance, accommodation and food service, and management of companies and enterprises. This also seems fitting given

the high number of tourist attractions and financial services firms that are found there. Santa Rosa sees higher than expected employ-ment in construction and agriculture. Overall, it seems that there is a relatively balanced division of labour amongst the San Francisco Bay Area’s main cities.

The Randstad region is highly differentiated as well (Figure 3). The two dimensions repre-sent approximately 85 per cent of total inertia. Although Utrecht is positioned relatively close to the origin, Amsterdam, The Hague and Rotterdam all look distinctly different from one another and from the average profile. Unsurprisingly, as it is the location of various national and international government offices, The Hague dominates in the government sec-tor. It also dominates in the agriculture sector, which Meijers (2005, p. 777) attributes to the

Figure 2. the San Francisco Bay Area, 2001. Key: see table 4.

Figure 3. the Randstad, 2002. Key: see table 4.

Figure 4. Emilia-Romagna, 2001. Key: see table 4.

Table 4. Key to abbreviations used in Figures 2–4

Agriculture, hunting, forestry AGRand fishingMining and natural resources MINDurable manufacturing DURNon-durable manufacturing NDUConstruction CONWholesale trade WHLRetail trade RETTransport, warehousing TRNand utilities Information INFFinance and insurance FINReal estate and rental and leasing RELProfessional, scientific and PROtechnical servicesManagement of companies and MGTenterprises Administrative and support and ADMwaste servicesEducational services EDUHealth care and social assistance HLTArts, entertainment and recreation ARTAccommodation and food services ACCOther services OTHGovernment GOV



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presence of a large number of agriculture interest-groups. Rotterdam, home to Europe’s largest port, is dominant in transport, durable manufacturing, construction and administra-tive and support services. Utrecht has a strong position in wholesale trade, real estate and educational services. Amsterdam, a major tourist destination and home to a major European airport hub, has relatively more jobs in accommodation and food services, arts, entertainment and recreation, as well as in financial services and information. In general, the Randstad’s main cities are somewhat com-plementary, although Utrecht and Amsterdam exhibit somewhat similar characteristics.

In Emilia-Romagna (Figure 4), the two dimensions account for about 98 per cent of total inertia. Like the Randstad, the four main cities in Emilia-Romagna are relatively complementary with some degree of overlap. The overlap seems most pronounced in the cases of Reggio Emilia and Parma, both of which have high employment in construction and in manufacturing of non-durable goods. Modena has relatively high employment in manufacturing of durable goods and admin-istrative services. Bologna, the cultural capital and seat of the Emilia-Romagna region, dominates in a variety of sectors including accommodation and food services, real estate, finance and insurance, professional and busi-ness services, government, arts, entertainment and recreation, transport and information. The sheer size and primacy of Bologna makes Emilia-Romagna a more difficult case to study because employment in a variety of sectors concentrates in this area. Nevertheless, corre-spondence analysis does control for the size of the cities in the calculation of inertia because individual cities are weighted according to the number of jobs that they contain.

Overall, the results of the correspond-ence analysis, presented in Table 3, suggest that complementarity decreased in all three regions between 1996 and 2001. All three regions are becoming less differentiated,

although the rate of change differs substan-tially. The Emilia-Romagna region decreased the most as total inertia dropped by 28.8 per cent. Inertia decreased by 18.5 per cent in the Randstad region and by 17.5 per cent in the Bay Area. The results show that homogeneity increased in the four cities found within each region and suggest that the economic roles of each city within the case study regions have become more homogeneous over time.6 One can deduce then that synergy at the regional level has decreased as well.

Complementarity and Institutional Structure

We learn from this correspondence analysis that to some extent all three of the regions exhibit complementarity. Disparities in the degree to which complementarity exists in each region, however, were also observed. Such differences may be in part due to differences in institutional structure amongst and across the three regions. The following section will develop three hypotheses related to differences in institutional structures and the roles that institutions play in shaping regional outcomes. Although most of the hypotheses seem not only to be derived from but also supported by the correspondence analysis findings, it is not my intention to test the hypotheses in this study. Rather, I propose these preliminary hypotheses as potential exercises to be pursued in future research and make no claims in this paper as to the actual testing of these hypoth-eses. It is important to note that any thorough testing of these hypotheses would necessitate the inclusion of additional explanatory factors, as certain historical, geographical and other contingencies are likely to explain at least some of the variation in pathways and outcomes seen in these three regions (Meijers, 2007).

H1: Polycentric regions with stronger regional governments will exhibit lower levels of complementarity.




One might expect that the existence and strength of a regional government would have an effect on the degree to which the sub-economies within a region interact with one another. Although it could be argued that a strong regional government would encourage complementarity through increased good-will and higher levels of trust, the findings in the analysis suggest that strong regional governments may in fact be associated with decreased levels of complementarity, urging further consideration of this association.

One possible explanation for this is that regional governments may contribute to less rigid divisions between municipalities. If lines between municipalities are less rigid, then greater deconcentration might result and individual municipalities (the level at which this study examines complementarity) may be less likely to focus on carving out their own unique business niche. In contrast, places with a weak regional government might be more likely to adhere to strict municipal boundaries and focus their efforts on increasing their own competitiveness through a particular business niche. Although no real conclusions can be drawn from this study alone, a brief review of observations from the three case study regions serves to highlight the ideas from which the hypothesis was derived.

In this study, Emilia-Romagna is the only region with an active regional government. The region consists of 9 provinces and 341 municipalities, each with its own distinct territory and explicit administrative powers granted by the Italian Constitution and by national and regional common laws (Raffaelli, 2003). Devolution of power from the centre to regional and local institutions has recently increased in Italy (Deas and Giordano, 2003). A three-tier system of sub-national, directly elected and multifunctional government—regions, provinces and municipalities—has existed since the Italian Constitution was approved in 1948 (OECD, 1997). Significant changes in Italian local government have

occurred in the past two decades as Italy increasingly moves towards federalisation based on the regional level.

Although it is commonly referred to as the pre-eminent example of a polycentric region, the Randstad does not have its own regional government. This region does, however, have some quasi-governmental entities acting at the regional scale, including the Delta Metropolis Association and the recently abolished Regio Randstand. The Delta Metropolis Association is a somewhat informal co-operation that was established in 2000 by 12 municipalities and 4 chambers of commerce within the Randstad (Meijers, 2005, p. 773). The network includes housing corporations as well as representa-tives from agriculture, horticulture, transport, and environmental sectors. Until January 2008, the Regio Randstad existed as a formal co-operation between four provinces, four regional authorities and the four major cities of the Randstad. The representatives of the Regio Randstad worked within the House of the Dutch Provinces in Brussels and were tasked with preparing policy and various lob-bying efforts (Regio Randstad, 2004). Despite their recent disbandment, the work of the Regio Randstad is important to this analysis because they were in existence during the time-period being studied.

Although no formal multifunction regional government exists in the San Francisco Bay Area, an organisation of public actors known as the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) was formed in the 1960s. ABAG was formed primarily for the purposes of pre-paring and refining the first regional plan to be approved by a majority of municipal and county spokesmen in the area (Scott, 1985). ABAG initially included representatives from 6 counties and 54 cities and was influenced greatly by civic leaders from local groups such as the Bay Area Council, Save the San Francisco Bay Association and People for Open Space. Today, ABAG represents 101 cities and all 9 counties within the Bay Area



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and is the official comprehensive planning agency for the San Francisco Bay region (ABAG, 2007). It is likely that ABAG is the organisation that comes closest to being a regional government in the Bay Area. When compared with the powers of Bologna’s pro-vincial government or even with the Regio Randstad, however, ABAG has little power. Although cities within this polycentric region work together on occasion, clear distinction and competition between these places remain.

Without a strong regional government, it seems fitting that complementarity would be higher in the San Francisco Bay Area than in the other regions. The San Francisco Bay Area is in many ways a highly fragmented region. Spatially isolated institutions like Joint Venture: Silicon Valley, a powerful actor that formed in part to ‘sell’ Silicon Valley and induce businesses to locate and invest there, are indicative of the rigid and local geographical boundaries to which institutions in the Bay Area often adhere (Pastor et al., 2000). The Randstad, whose regional pres-ence mainly consists of a quasi-governmental political advocacy group, exhibits slightly lower levels of complementarity than the Bay Area. Emilia-Romagna, which represents the strongest and only real example of a regional government in this study, fittingly has the lowest levels of complementarity of the three study areas. Although we cannot draw conclu-sions based on this incomplete analysis, the exercise does suggest that further research in this area might be useful. In order truly to test this hypothesis, one would need to develop an index of strength of government and it is likely that one would have to include more than one case study with a regional govern-ment in the study.

H2: Places with stronger regional identities will have higher amounts of complementarity.

A second hypothesis worth examining is the degree to which complementarity

relates to the strength of a region’s identity. It is important to distinguish between this hypothesis and the prior one. Whereas a strong regional government implies some sort of overarching authority, a strong regional identity reflects a collective inter-est or distinct character of a given region. Anderson (1991) describes identity as a nar-rative that allows a place-based community to give meaning to the system and norms to which the community subscribes.

One could imagine that the inclusive social system often associated with a strong regional identity would facilitate more interaction amongst firms in a region. Increased interac-tion might be related to the common invest-ment that firms feel when they are co-located in a region. In other words, a firm located in a region that strongly identifies as such is probably more likely to look within the region for partnerships than a firm located in region that has little or no regional identity. A thorough test of this hypothesis would require empirical data that is far beyond the scope of this analysis. However, preliminary observa-tions can be made by comparing secondary qualitative data on regional identity with the findings from the correspondence analysis.

Despite recent changes that have challenged its cohesiveness, the Emilia-Romagna region has historically exhibited a strong regional identity. The strong sense of regional identity is due in large part to the pervasiveness of a Communist political sub-culture—the Italian Communist Party (PCI)—which has influ-enced local politics since the end of World War II. The PCI had a remarkable effect on the Emilia-Romagna economy in that it

legitimised not only waged labour, but also the creation of small firms by workers wishing to become self-employed and set up a business of their own (Rinaldi, 2005, p. 244).

The proliferation of these small firms provided the foundation for an emerging concept




known as industrial districts, or decentralised networks of flexibly specialised small firms, which became the driving-forces of the Emilian manufacturing economy (Amin, 1999). So intriguing were these industrial districts that they eventually became syn-onymous with the concept of the ‘Third Italy’—the north-east and central parts of the country where a distinctive social struc-ture was thought to facilitate interaction and co-ordination between the local economic actors (Brusco, 1982). The region also became known for its localised innovation centres, which promoted systemic interaction using new technologies. Researchers found that this new form of industrial organisation proved more resilient in the face of economic crisis than other parts of the Italian economy (Piore and Sabel, 1984). Together, these resources and institutions allowed the region to develop a collective identity and ‘rules of the game’ which have become the basis of the Emilian model that other countries have sought to replicate (Cooke et al., 1997, see Saxenian, 1996 for other examples).

Given such a strong regional identity, one would expect that complementarity in Emilia-Romagna would be relatively high. However, the results from the correspondence analysis suggest that Emilia-Romagna has less com-plementarity than the Randstad and the Bay Area. This may be explained by two changes seen in the region in recent years—a shift in regional government and increasingly glo-balised business operations—both of which may have changed the nature of the industrial districts. In the past few decades, many of the local production systems have tried to lower labour costs by increasing the volume of operations carried out outside the region or by moving some processing activities outside the region (Rinaldi, 2005, p. 250). At the same time, there has also been a weakening of the once-dominant Communist sub-culture, which probably relates to a less cohesive

society (Rinaldi, 2005, p. 255). Together, these two changes may explain, at least in part, the recently lower complementarity exhibited in Emilia-Romagna in spite of its historically strong regional identity.

In terms of its regional identity, the Randstad is likely to fall somewhere in between the San Francisco Bay Area and Emilia-Romagna. Although the Randstad has long been known as an interconnected region, it does not always function as one. Cities within the region do interact with one another in a variety of ways, but the Randstad remains somewhat fragmented. The OECD describes the current state as follows

Official boundaries for the Randstad do not exist and it does not fit into one of the three government tiers in the Netherlands. It remains an almost abstract concept as no government policies are implemented using it as the geographical basis for intervention (OECD, 2007, p. 6).

Such fragmentation may be fuelled by compe-tition that is said to exist between the North and South wings of the Randstad. The North wing’s economy, which includes Amsterdam, Utrecht and surrounding cities, has fared much better than the South wing’s economy, which includes The Hague, Rotterdam and sur-rounding cities. Some researchers have even suggested that division along this north–south line would provide for more accurate defini-tions of continuous and co-operative urban regions (van der Laan, 1998; Kloosterman and Lambregts, 2001). Researchers have also discussed the possibility of devising an even more inclusive definition of the region, calling it the Central Netherlands Urban Ring and including the four cities of the Randstad as well as large parts of Gelderland and North Brabant (Priemus, 1998). An expanded region might, however, exacerbate many of the problems that the Randstad already faces, including the disconnectedness felt in the



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smaller towns and rural areas found between the major cities as well as the low levels of interconnectedness felt between people living in each of the cities (personal interview, B. Lambregts, Ithaca (NY) 9 November 2007). In terms of commuting, the PolyNet study (van der Werff et al., 2005) found that the strongest commuting linkages are found at the level of individual cities (Greater Amsterdam, Greater Rotterdam, etc.) and that the level of ‘pan-Randstad’ commuting is rather modest in comparison. Despite the feelings of disconnectedness, low levels of pan-Randstad commuting and the lack of governmental policies existing at the regional level, the Randstad concept still carries some weight because of on-going government and interest-group efforts to identify the area as a cohesive unit. So, despite the fact that public opinion is not quite there yet, there does appear to be a moderately strong regional identity that falls somewhere in between the identities of the San Francisco Bay Area and Emilia-Romagna. It seems fitting then that the level of complementarity in the Randstad is moderately high and falls in between the other two regions in the study.

Although the region lacks a strong regional government, the San Francisco Bay Area exhibits a relatively strong sense of regional identity. Bay-wide efforts, often driven by citizen activists, have fought for policies and programmes to promote environmental protection of the Bay Area’s land and water, improve transport systems and increase rec-reational facilities. Scott argues that

state legislature, responding to the regional ferment, has from time to time created such special purpose agencies as the Bay Conservation and Development Commission and the Metropolitan Transport Commission (Scott, 1985, p. 310).

Regional ferment, or more specifically a collective identity, may be a result of the unique topography of the region. The San

Francisco Bay acts as a uniting feature and the hills and surrounding mountains serve as boundaries for many parts of the region. The strong regional identity may also be the result of the unique sense of place and the plethora of assets that make the Bay Area a highly desirable place in which to live. A well-connected and accessible public transit system—Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART)—makes the region highly accessible for many people. The region is also home to many interrelated firms that are at the cutting edge of global technology, especially in Silicon Valley. Together, these and other assets make the San Francisco Bay Area stand out from other parts of the country and the world. Admittedly, standing out does not always mean that a region is cohesive. Nonetheless, the San Francisco Bay Area does seem to function as a relatively cohesive unit and so it makes sense that it would exhibit higher levels of complementarity than the other regions in the study.

H3: Complementarity is greater in places that have actively pursued polycentrism as a development strategy.

A third hypothesis worth exploring in future research relates back to the presumed link between polycentrism and complementarity. If we assume that regions pursuing polycen-tric principles are more attuned to the concept of co-operation, then one might expect to see higher levels of complementarity in places that have actively pursued polycentrism. At first glance, the hypothesis tends to hold true in at least two of the three cases.

One would expect that the Randstad, one of the pre-eminent examples of poly-centrism, would exhibit greater comple-mentarity than Emilia-Romagna. As was mentioned previously, principles associated with polycentrism have been a part of plan-ning documents in the Netherlands since at least 1958 and the concept remains an




important foundation of Dutch planning today. As a result, the Randstad is often used as an example of polycentric development and its approaches are replicated in plan-ning documents world-wide. The concept of polycentrism as a development strategy in the Randstad region may have also contrib-uted to the broader use of the concept in the European Spatial Development Perspective (ESDP). The ESDP even endorses polyc-entrism within countries, across national boundaries and at the level of Europe as a whole (EC, 1999). Furthermore, documents produced by regional networks like Regio Randstad make it clear that polycentrism has been actively pursued in the region (Regio Randstad, 2004).

As part of a member-state of the European Union, the Emilia-Romagna region also falls under the purview of the ESDP. Hence, policy development in Emilia-Romagna is likely to be influenced, at least in part, by the polycentrism concept. The European Spatial Planning Observation Network’s document, “ESPON 1.1.1: potentials for polycentric development in Europe” (ESPON, 1999), cites Italy as an example of a place where the concept of polycentricity may have trickled down into operational decision-making despite the fact that spatial planning is more peripheral in its national administrative system (p. 36). Furthermore, ESPON finds that, in Italy

Polycentricity is an implicit though clear target in many national sectoral policies, for instance on education (the distribution of universities), the economy (support to district development) and transportation (ESPON, 1999, p. 224).

In the end, the degree to which the concept is ingrained in local planning and policy efforts has not yet been quantified. Still, one might assume that polycentrism, given its relative newness in Italy, remains somewhat less of a

priority than it is in the Randstad. Empirical evidence confirming this assumption would be a constructive contribution to this body of research.

Although the San Francisco Bay Area has often been heralded as a relatively successful polynucleated region, it has not generally pursued polycentric development strategies per se (Cervero and Wu, 1997). However, if one were to consider a broader defini-tion of polycentrism, it is likely that the Bay Area would show up as having prioritised polycentric-type development strategies. If you consider its relatively accessible regional public transit system, its high level of civic concern for planned growth and equity, and the density of its various urban centres, the San Francisco Bay Area has undoubtedly worked within a paradigmatic framework that is very similar, if not identical, to that of a polycentric development strategy. So, if we assume that the strategies pursued in the San Francisco Bay Area have yielded something that looks a lot like polycentric development, then its seems fitting that this region would exhibit high levels of complementarity.

The problem remains, however, that the degree to which all three regions have actively pursued polycentrism is a difficult concept to measure. Nonetheless, such a measure would be very useful in attempting to assess how polycentric strategies relate to complementa-rity and would be helpful in quantifying the effects of such strategies.

Conclusion

In this paper, I have explored the concept of polycentrism as it relates to interurban economic relationships between cities in three larger, sub-national polycentric urban regions. The economic relationships exam-ined in this study begin to tell a story about how firms and institutional structures relate to the economic profiles in three case study regions. The analysis compares the degree



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to which economic complementarity exists in three regions—the Randstad, Emilia-Romagna and the San Francisco Bay Area— in two different time-periods. The findings suggest that complementarity in all three regions has decreased over time, which means that all three regions became less differentiated between 1996 and 2001. The San Francisco Bay Area was found to be the most com-plementary region, and was followed by the Randstad and Emilia-Romagna. Disparities in the degree to which complementarity exists in each region may be in part due to differences in institutional structure amongst and across the three regions.

Although the institutional component of the study remains only within the hypotheti-cal realm, three main hypotheses were pro-posed as potential studies to be conducted in the future. The first hypothesis asks whether polycentric regions with stronger regional governments will exhibit lower levels of complementarity. The second suggests that places with stronger regional identities may have higher amounts of complementarity. The third urges us to consider whether complementarity is indeed greater in places that have actively pursued polycentrism as a development strategy. Findings from the three case studies informed the development of these hypotheses, but should not be seen as evidence of the veracity of these ideas.

It is important to note that any testing of these hypotheses would undoubtedly require the addition of other important variables, including certain historical, geographical and other contingencies. Nevertheless, the findings from the analysis and exploration of these hypotheses should help to facilitate the discus-sion of polycentrism in the literature through its use of international comparative analysis and in its offering of important preliminary hypotheses regarding the relationship between the economies of polycentric regions and insti-tutional, cultural and governmental factors.

Notes

1. Results for the Randstad are not directly comparable with the values observed in Meijers’ 2005 study of the same area. This may be in part due to aggregations performed in the current analysis necessitated by the need to create comparable measures across countries. The results in both cases are comparable in terms of the relative strength of the total inertia and complementarity ratios in both time-periods (see Meijers, 2005, for further details).

2. In Emilia-Romagna, data for the public administration and education sectors were not collected in 1996. Linear interpolation was used to estimate values for these sectors based on data from 1991 and 2001.

3. Metropolitan divisions refer to a county or group of closely tied contiguous counties that make up a distinct employment region within a metropolitan statistical area with a population greater than 2.5 million. Metropolitan divisions are sub-divisions of larger metropolitan statistical areas and often are seen as distinct social, economic, and cultural areas within the larger region.

4. Eigenvectors and eigenvalues slightly differ from the concept of inertia and are often discussed in relation to factor analysis. In a co-variance matrix, the eigenvectors correspond to factors and eigenvalues describe the variance that is explained by these factors.

5. Decreasing complementarity may be related to the phenomenon of ‘hollowing out’, which was analysed in a related study by Hewings et al. (1996). In this study of Chicago from 1975 to 2011, the authors found that intrametropolitan dependence was increasingly being replaced by dependence on sources of supply and demand outside the region.

6. Meijers (2007) also noted a decrease in complementarity in the Randstad between 1996 and 2002. He attributed this decrease to either a diminished range of different business milieus and specialised clusters or the regionalisation of local competitive advantages.




Acknowledgements

The authour would like to thank Rolf Pendall and Kieran Donaghy for their helpful comments.

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