Political systems in the Middle East

An overview

Some working definitions

• Democratic regime– Leadership: Key decision-makers elected through fair

and regular elections– Civil liberties: robust protection for citizens

• Authoritarian regime– Key political leadership gains power through means

other than fair and regular elections (consolidation of authority).

– Little protection for citizens’ civil liberties (little tolerance of opposition)

– Two main types: Republics and monarchies

Note that many authoritarian regimes have the institutional trappings of democracy…

Regime classifications in the MENA using traditional schema

Democratic systems Authoritarian systems

Republics Monarchies

AlgeriaEgyptSyria

YemenTunisiaLibyaIran*

TurkeyIsrael

Lebanon(Iraq) Oman

UAEKuwaitJordanQatar

Saudi ArabiaMorocco

(Palestinian Auth.)

“Freedom” in 2009*“Free” “Partly Free” “Not Free”

Israel TurkeyYemen

LebanonBahrainJordanKuwait

Morocco

UAELibyaEgyptIraqIran

AlgeriaTunisiaQatarOmanSyria

Palestinian Auth.Saudi Arabia

*As measured by Freedom House in two main areas: political representation and civil liberties.

Complicating the categories: some points to remember

#1

The categories don’t tell the whole story (or even most of it)

(They are “ideal types”)

A. Democracies but not fully

• Israel– EIU: “flawed democracy” (faulted for civil liberties: 5.29 out of 10)– Influence of the military & religious authorities in politics,

treatment of non-Jewish citizens and secular populations• Turkey

– EIU: “hybrid regime” (faulted for political participation, political culture, civil liberties)

– Influence of military in politics (changing?), treatment of dissidents, especially Kurds

• Lebanon– EIU: “hybrid regime” (faulted for functioning of government)– Consociation system and problems with the National Pact– Influence of Syria– The civil war, 1975-1991

EIU = Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index 2008.

B. “Republics” or “monarchies”? (family-run regimes)

President Bashar al-Assad of Syria

Gamal Mubarak, the next president of Egypt?

C. Some monarchies have (often troublesome) parliaments

Jordan

King (Abdullah II)Can dissolve Parliament

Rule by decreeAppoint PM

Approve Legislation

Parliament40-person Senate (appointed)

80-person chamber of deputies (universal suffrage) Hashemite

Family

Prime Minister & Council of Ministers

(appointed by king)

Other monarchies• Kuwait

– Al-Sabah Family (emir), 50-member National Assembly

– Limited popular vote (only about 15 percent of Kuwait’s 900,000 citizens)

• Bahrain– Al-Khalifa family (Sunni minority) – National Assembly since 2002

• Morocco– Alaouite Dynasty and ruling family – Two-chamber Parliament (with real

powers)

King Mohammad VI of Morocco

D. Where to put Iran? A dualistic system

* The Iranian Constitution was first passed in 1979 and revised in 1989. In addition, some of the government institutions presented here were created after 1982. This slide presents the current (2008) structure of the government.

Parliament(Majlis)

• Elected every 4 years• 293 members

Electorate

President* 4-year terms (max. 2)

Cabinet

Assembly ofExperts

* 86 clerics

SupremeLeader (faqih/rahbar)

Council of Guardians•12 members• Can veto Majlis legislation

Judiciary

Security Forces

Expediency Council(mediates disputes between Majlis & Guardian Council)

E. What about women?

#2

The time factor: in most cases these regime types

are recent

Regime categorizations in the MENA in earlier years

MENA regimes in earlier years, a sampling

Some of Iraq’s earlier leaders…

Regimes in earlier yearsTurkey: authoritarian one-party state, 1923-late 1940s

Egypt: constitutional monarchy, 1923-1952

#3. The importance of external players and forces in shaping regime type

• Colonialism and imperialism

• U.S. and European interventions

• Cold War and Gulf Wars• Israel (and the Lebanon

wars)• Arab nationalism and

Egypt• The European Union

Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadeq in his 1953 trial, which took place after the CIA-assisted coup.

#4. Who are the real political players (and how do they operate)?

Comparisons and similarities across regime types

• The military• Religious groups and movements• Social players (tribes, clans, families, landlords,

ethnic groups, etc)• External players (the U.S., Israel, Syria, al

Qaida, etc)

Nonetheless, some big questions• Why so many monarchies?• Why so little democracy?• How to understand the role(s) of women in

politics and power?• The power and limitations of religion in

politics• Technology and the power (and

limitations) of ordinary people. • How are ordinary people shaping politics

in ways we do not necessarily see?