Political Science and International Relations

Causes, development and solutions of selected armed conflicts

• to introduce selected armed conflicts which are characteristic for the last decade• characterize their origins, development and attempts to solve these conflicts

The aim of the presentation

Content of the presentation

Iraq conflictHistorical determinantsDevelopment from 2003 to 2011

Afghanistan conflictHistorical determinantsDevelopment from 2003 to 2014

• In 1920 Iraq became a League of nations mandate under British control with the name State of Iraq and the British authorities established the Hashemite dynasty and selected Sunni Arab elites from the region for appointments to government and ministry offices• In 1932 declaration of independence (formal), Britain granted independence to the Kingdom of Iraq and retained military bases and transit rights for their forces•In 1941coup d´état and fall of the government which caused Anglo-Iraqi war, the British army invaded Iraq, British military occupation followed the restoration of the pre-coup government of the Hashemite monarchy (occupation ended in 1947)• In 1958 a 14 july Revolution led to the end of the monarchy• In victory of 1968 Ba´ath Party.

Iraq – historical determinants

• In 1979 President Saddam Hussein• In 1980 Iraq invaded Iran after the success of the Iranian revolution• 1980-1988 The Iran–Iraq War, (the First Persian Gulf War)• In August 1990 Iraq invaded and annexed Kuwait and this led to intervention by US-led forces in the Second Gulf War • after Iraq defeat in 1991, Shia Muslim and Kurdish Iraqis led uprising against the regime, but these were repressed by loyal Saddam Hussein forces.• The US, UK, France and Turkey claiming authority under UN resolution, established the no-fly zones to protect Kurdish and Shiite populations from air attacks.

Iraq – historical determinants

• In October 1998, U.S. President Clinton signed the Iraq liberation act calling for regime change in Iraq, and initiated Operation Desert Fox

• In October 2002, the U.S. Congress passed the Resolution to autorize the use of US armed forces against Iraq

• Iraq is by USA and UK accused of unlawful possession of WMD and their development in violation of UN Resolution

Iraq – historical determinants

• On March 2003, a US-organized coalition invaded Iraq Operation Iraqi Freedom• Following the invasion, the US established the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) to govern Iraq• CPA orders to exclude Ba´ath Party members from the new Iraqi government and to disband the Iraqi Army (this decision affected especially Sunnis Muslims)• Beginnings of insurgency against American occupation (initially based on former ruling party and military persons)• Beginnings of violence between Sunnis and Shias Muslims

Iraq conflict

Iraqi Freedom

• Shia militia (Mahdi army) created in the summer of 2003 by Moqtqda Sadr reached some 60,000 members by December 2006

• Participation of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, terrorists targeted coalition forces and community of Shia Muslims

• By 2007, the violence between Shias and Sunnis had increased to civil war

• New US COIN strategy (gen. Petraeus)

Iraq conflict

Iraq conflict

• In 2008 Blackwater private security controversy• In 2008 Civil war continues (Spring offensives on Shia militias)• 2008-2010 Coalition and Iraqi government stepped up their efforts to build national defence and security forces

• In 2009 Coalition forces redeployment

• In 2010 U.S. drawdown and Operation New Dawn:Barrack Obama: „Let me say this as plainly as I can: by August 31, 2010, our combat mission in Iraq will end.“

Iraq conflict

• In the 19th century, Afghanistan became a buffer state in the Great Game between British and the Russian Empire.• In 1893 The Durand Line was established. Line cuts through the Pashtun tribal areas and further south through the Balouchistan region.• After the Third Anglo-afghan War in 1919, King Amanullah declared Afghanistan a sovereign and fully independent state.• In 20´ many reforms intended to modernize Afghan nation.(including the abolition of the traditional burga for women and the opening of a number of co-educational schools)

Afghanistan – historical determinants

• Modernization vs. many tribal and religious leaders• in 1929 king Amanullah Khan was forced by armed opposition to abdicate• rule of Zahir Shah, (reigned from 1933 to 1973), epoch of stability in Afghanistan• In 1973, prime minister Daoud Khan coup d´etat and became the first President of Afganistan.• In 1978 Saur Revolution, the communist party seized power in Afghanistan• In 1978 uprising in eastern Afghanistan that expanded into a civil war waged by guerrilla majahideen against government forces.

Afghanistan – historical determinants

• In 1979 Soviet troops were deployed to stabilize Afghanistan under new government of Babrak Karmal• 1979-1989 Soviets were directly involved in war in Afghanistan• 1989-1992 Civil war in Afghanistan after the Soviet Union withdrew from region• In 1992 the fall of Najibullah's marxist government• 1992-1996 second phase of Civil war in Afghanistan• 1994 the origins of Taliban•1996 Taliban seized Kabul and established the islamic Emirate of Afghanistan• 1996-2001 third phase of Civil war in Afghanistan

Afghanistan – historical determinants

Afghanistan - 1996

• On 9 September 2001, Ahmad Shah Massoud was assassinated by two Al Qaeda members

• After 11/9 2001 USA identified Al-Qaeda based in Afghanistan as the perpetrators of the attacks

• The Taliban refused to hand over bin Laden to USA a and to disband al-Qaeda bases in Afghanistan

• 2001 Operation Enduring Freedom

Afghanistan – historical determinants

• On 9 September 2001, Ahmad Shah Massoud was assassinated by two Al Qaeda members

• After 11/9 2001 USA identified Al-Qaeda based in Afghanistan as the perpetrators of the attacks

• The Taliban refused to hand over bin Laden to USA a and to disband al-Qaeda bases in Afghanistan

• 2001 Operation Enduring Freedom• 2002 Operation Anaconda

Operation Enduring Freedom

2003-2005 Rise of InsurgencyOperation Enduring Freedom

• 2008 – application of new strategies COIN

• after 2008 – more scope for authority for reconstruction teams and management of Afghani administration

•After 2010 – accent on Afghanization of the conflict, which is passing on more responsibility for the security and stability of the region to the local powers

•2013/2014 - withdrawal of the allied forces from the region, transferring of responsibility to local level

Operation Enduring Freedom